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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #57,861
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:48pm Jan 8, 2008 3:48pm
Quoting vinesh2
Not sure if anyone follows AJ. I have seen some correlation between AJ and GJ. AJ is also a carry trade pair. AUD is about to come out with its retail numbers and this is expected to beat estimates. Now, what would be interesting and I could be completely wrong is that will AJ drag GJ up with it. Since YEN would value against AU will that effect other YEN crosses. Any opinions. I am just speculating

i have seen this many times yen pairs correlate (I think) ONLY when the its about the yen for example good usd news could drive uj up and do nothing to aj know what i mean.....but manyl pairs have correlation... usd/chf is an opposite correlation to gu many times(i think) .. maybe someone else knows more but i like your thinking
  • #57,862
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:49pm Jan 8, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting quecee5
MM,

This smell like the same situation we had several weeks ago when the market pushed "geppy" up to 230.50 area with fed injecting 20 billion in the market to save the equity market. . .

If you remember "geppy" got pushed all the way down to 223.80 before finding support then during Tokyo and London session got pushed up to 227.20. Then the announcement came out the next morning with fed intervention and pushed it up another 300 pips.

Shortly after that the down trend began that put geppy to the lows where we are today. Thats why I said something stinks about this move - JMHO.

I also read a few weeks back that the fed would inject 30 billion into the market this time ar'd oppose to 20 billion. Not sure when its suppose to happen but. . . This would surely help prop the DOW back up since it is trading at new lows.

Also the fact that that situation happened on interest wed makes me even more suspicious of this sudden move.

This is all JMO but I find this to be too peculiar. . . I guess we will find out soon. . .
Fed to make 60 billion dollars available in auctions - Yahoo! NewsThe Fed said that it would auction off 30 billion dollars on January 14, and another 30 billion on January 28. The increase comes after banks made it clear ...
  • #57,863
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:50pm Jan 8, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting boomer1
If i look at my chart it looks like we will see 213.57/86 before a major retraced back to 219.24 about or maybe 221.94 look at your 4hr still has some way down to go. 1D chart looks like it can give us a good move upwards.
maybe i am reading it wrong.
I have a PROBLEME POSTING A CHART PLEASE HELP.
Thanks carl

i just do a save as and then hit the browse button at bottom find it and where it says manage attachments then u hit upload
  • #57,864
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:51pm Jan 8, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting pip_designer
Fed to make 60 billion dollars available in auctions - Yahoo! NewsThe Fed said that it would auction off 30 billion dollars on January 14, and another 30 billion on January 28. The increase comes after banks made it clear ...
Thxs!
  • #57,865
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:52pm Jan 8, 2008 3:52pm
is everyone OK? been reading alot of depressing comments since i checked back in. guys/gals, you're going to have losing trades, bad days, poor decision making at times. regroup (maybe step away for a few hours/days, whatever) and take a fresh look at charts. we are clearly in a downtrend and all longs are subject to that until it changes. I have done well this week scalping longs but i am not looking for 100-200 pips with them. 50-100 pips even less is fine with me. my last trade today was a loser ro 66 pips and it shoiuld have only been about a 20-30 pip loss but i was stubborn. it happens and i will move to the next trade set up. the gj is a creature of habit and i expect to see 219 area this week but if we start to break key lower support areas i will sell it like crazy, right or wrong, its that simple. btw, i have been seeing some great looking charts, keep it up
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,866
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:52pm Jan 8, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting quecee5
MM,

This smell like the same situation we had several weeks ago when the market pushed "geppy" up to 230.50 area with fed injecting 20 billion in the market to save the equity market. . .

If you remember "geppy" got pushed all the way down to 223.80 before finding support then during Tokyo and London session got pushed up to 227.20. Then the announcement came out the next morning with fed intervention and pushed it up another 300 pips.

Shortly after that the down trend began that put geppy to the lows where we are today. Thats why I said something stinks about this move - JMHO.

I also read a few weeks back that the fed would inject 30 billion into the market this time ar'd oppose to 20 billion. Not sure when its suppose to happen but. . . This would surely help prop the DOW back up since it is trading at new lows.

Also the fact that that situation happened on interest wed makes me even more suspicious of this sudden move.

This is all JMO but I find this to be too peculiar. . . I guess we will find out soon. . .
It is all speculation. If you study your charts without bias, you will a sideways move (consolidation) on the 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 min, etc.
My charts have been calling for a retrace since i posted them sunday night.

This sideways move after a big fall is forming a cascade pattern which is a continuation pattern of trend.
  • #57,867
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:53pm Jan 8, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting ovaforty
For now, Market sentiment is trumping technicals. Do not feel that you need to have a trade in place at all times. Patience means waiting for your signals.

It is better to NOT have a trade than to gamble on 50/50 odds.

thanks ova..... i am neutral with exception of a prior trade.... sidelines look good until we see what pa dictates appreciate the advice!
  • #57,868
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:57pm Jan 8, 2008 3:57pm
Here's a question - Looking at price action right now seems like some buying is happening as most carry pairs are "bid". If these pairs are about to free fall why would anyone be buying at this point. . . or is this just selling at market thats occurring????

Maybe someone could help answer this because I can't make heads or tails out of whats going on there. Charts are saying "bearish" but whats holding this thing up, why haven't we seen a rapid sell off or a clearer sign esp. in this session????
  • #57,869
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:01pm Jan 8, 2008 4:01pm
I thought I would replay my message from 6 months ago. Gold is up about 40% since then, so I hope everyone took my advice.

Quoting markam
Bit of long-term fundamentals for everyone to think about in their personal and investing lives. In spite of record high prices for oil over the last two years, we have seen oil production slowly decline. The decline rate is increasing, and it is becoming clear that the world has not only peaked in oil production, but is about to pass over the plateau at the top and start a rapid decline. By next summer, we will either be in period of shortages and record high prices, or we will be in a severe recession/depression.

Since the world switched first to coal, then to coal, oil and natural gas, we have been building a global economy based upon access to cheap and infinitely growing supplies of energy. I do not believe that our economic system can adjust to expensive and declining supplies of energy. It will become disfunctional in a very short space of time. I (and really no one) has any idea what will happen at that time.

For the forum members here, remember that all currencies we are trading a fiat-based, and they could all ultimately become worthless. You should seriously consider investing in energy and commodities, as their value cannot be destroyed through currency debasement. I also think that everyone should have some amount of gold and silver bought and stored with them. Just think of it as going long with the ultimate currency.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/drum_watch_aug2.png
  • #57,870
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:05pm Jan 8, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting vinesh2
Not sure if anyone follows AJ. I have seen some correlation between AJ and GJ. AJ is also a carry trade pair. AUD is about to come out with its retail numbers and this is expected to beat estimates. Now, what would be interesting and I could be completely wrong is that will AJ drag GJ up with it. Since YEN would value against AU will that effect other YEN crosses. Any opinions. I am just speculating
Interesting point Vinesh, and as it turns out there may be some truth in your assertion. AUDJPY is the Yen carry pair with the closest correlation to GBPJPY according to this correlation calculator:

http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...elation/table/

with a score of 86/87 (>80=positive correlation, closer to 100 the stronger the correlation), as compared to USDJPY which only managed a score of 76 and EJ 79.
  • #57,871
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:12pm Jan 8, 2008 4:12pm
a glimpse of possible lil bounce?
OR not?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,872
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:21pm Jan 8, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting markam
I thought I would replay my message from 6 months ago. Gold is up about 40% since then, so I hope everyone took my advice.
Hi Markam, your insight on fundamentals are superb. If only I took the advice. Kip it up bro.
  • #57,873
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:23pm Jan 8, 2008 4:23pm
Quoting Nfgaxp
Is the gpy will hit 214 ???



Yes I see now the price is 214.85 it will reach to 214
  • #57,874
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:29pm Jan 8, 2008 4:29pm
Think equities will be bought
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #57,875
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:29pm Jan 8, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting Nfgaxp
Yes I see now the price is 214.85 it will reach to 214
y
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,876
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:33pm Jan 8, 2008 4:33pm
That little spike we saw in GJ was due to AUD's retail sales#.
  • #57,877
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:33pm Jan 8, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting dagoods
hi doc i respect your anlyisis I just dont understand what u mean? can you explain please

Hardly an analysis... just an observation. If we break above 215 in the next
few hours, nature will smile upon this pair.

You should know by now that most of my offerings are riddled with riddles
and tongues in cheek (there should only be room for one... lol) with a sliver
of t/a, potential and possibilities.

Dr. D.
  • #57,878
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:34pm Jan 8, 2008 4:34pm
5SMA high is acting as a resistence it should break through any momment hopefully taking GJ with it
  • #57,879
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:39pm Jan 8, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting vinesh2
5SMA high is acting as a resistence it should break through any momment hopefully taking GJ with it
ok bud as mm said we are not sure till we break the range...but if i were to look at a 15 min chart it would look something like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #57,880
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:58pm Jan 8, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting markam
I thought I would replay my message from 6 months ago. Gold is up about 40% since then, so I hope everyone took my advice.
Ok, time for the noob in me to come out. Do you mean gold in the forex market? or literally buy gold?
enough of the noob, Just wanted to say that I always look forward to seeing what you have to say. I learn a lot from it.

Thanks!!!
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