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Pivot Point, Psych Levles and Intra Day Trend Lines

  • #41
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:20pm Jan 5, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting acumen
Let's take a look at January 2 2007.

Price begins above the PP.

We are thinking buy.

You could have entered at the daily high and took profit at R1 during the start of the European Session.

Not me - I want to see a push through R1.

It didn't happen until the news pushed it through the daily a high which happened to be R1 and a few PIPS higher was 1.4700.

We call that confluence and I call it a good entry.

Take note where price hits and then pulls back. (1.4750)

Hmmm... that number sounds familiar.
Hi

The bar which I have marked with an ellipse also did push through R1, any reason you did not take this as a long trade?
Attached Image
Regards
  • #42
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:18pm Jan 5, 2008 5:18pm
During the Asian session price pushed below our .4600 level.

Later during the session price touched our .4600 level and began to move up. Keep in mind that since we start the day above the PP we are thinking buy.

The first thing we should take note of is the aqua line. Price never makes it down to the session low.

Take notice of the .4650 level. Price makes an aggressive move through it and then retreats hovering at the .4650 level and then blast of through R1.

At R1 it hesitates briefly and then makes a move to .4700.

NOTE: You can click on the chart if you can't see the detail.
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  • #43
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:23pm Jan 5, 2008 5:23pm
I usually wait for price to move through one of these levels and pull back prior to entering the trade.

However... I may have taken the trade to be quite honest. I would have been stopped out with a 15 PIP loss.

m
  • #44
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:39pm Jan 5, 2008 5:39pm
Price touches the PP during the Asian session.

I begins to move north and meets with resistance at R1.

I need a confirmation that price is going to move through R1 so I may place a buy order at .4520.

Price continues to move north during the Asian session and the European session.

It then rockets to R2 retreats then continues to climb.

Let's look at R2. Notice that long wick through R1 at .4550?

I often set a buy limit order at the top of the wick or the session high.

Also take note of R3 and .4600.

Notice the long wick that moves through it and retreats?

A buy limit order at the top of that wick would have been another 15 PIP score. (It was the only trade I took that day since I'm not awake during the European session.

Additionally - how can you be sure I took that trade? I show my entries and exists on my website.
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  • #45
  • Jan 6, 2008 4:07pm Jan 6, 2008 4:07pm
As usual we are looking at a 15 Min chart of the EURUSD.

It's the only chart I use to trade.

Take a look at 1.4700.

That's going to be a critical support moving into this evenings European session.

Price bounced off of it three times on Jan 4th and three times on Jan 3rd.

If it breaks it should be a good intra day short.

Should price approach it during the session it will offer stiff resistance but if it gives price should move quickly to the next critical support level.
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  • #46
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:21pm Jan 7, 2008 1:21pm
Last night prior to the European session I said that .4700 would be a very key line in the sand.

It broke during the European session and during the US session. (after a retrace)

Both times it moved directly to S1.
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  • #47
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:35pm Jan 7, 2008 1:35pm
Notice how the price action took the EURUSD to .4700 and acted as support one final time before giving in during the European session.

I won't buy if price is below the pivot point(blue line on the chart)... however... if you look at the early part of the US session you can see price made a move through .4700 and ran up 30 PIPS before heading South.
  • #48
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:49pm Jan 7, 2008 1:49pm
I don't trade anything other than the current session.

EVERY decision I make is based on price action, pivots, psychs and trend lines of the EURUSD on a 15 min chart.

However... a quick fib study of the EURUSD on a daily chart looks very bearish.

Food for thought.
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  • #49
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:13pm Jan 7, 2008 2:13pm
As a retail trader... which is what the vast majority of us are... you account for a meager 14% of all the trading activity on the FX markets.

So... Pivot Points work because they are used on almost every traded instrument. Bank traders use Pivot Points. Ask a large bank trader how many moving averages he has plotted on his charts? You may be surprised.

Psych levels work because some of the largest players have automated trading programs that buy and sell at these levels.
  • #50
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:27pm Jan 7, 2008 2:27pm
Once price chooses a direction for the day it will move from the pivot point to S1 or R1 75% of the time.

So far this year... 100% of the time.
  • #51
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:36pm Jan 7, 2008 2:36pm
Hi can't you please post hourly pivot indicator? Thanks. I already have one but with mine, i can't backtest... Thank you another time
  • #52
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:38pm Jan 7, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting acumen
Once price chooses a direction for the day it will move from the pivot point to S1 or R1 75% of the time.

So far this year... 100% of the time.
What time were the pivot points under test being calculated?

This is the factor that makes pivot points somewhat arbitrary and subjective.

There is no common consensus as to whether they should be calculated at 5PM NY time, 000 GMT, the beginning of the session being traded etc.
  • #53
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:44pm Jan 7, 2008 2:44pm
http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Videos.htm

Click on Pivot Point Indicator For MetaTrader.

This PP indicator is based on the close of business for the US Session.
  • #54
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:46pm Jan 7, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting billbss
What time were the pivot points under test being calculated?

This is the factor that makes pivot points somewhat arbitrary and subjective.

There is no common consensus as to whether they should be calculated at 5PM NY time, 000 GMT, the beginning of the session being traded etc.
Good Point Bill,

I was wondering the same thing. You can throw 3-4 pivot indicators which will produce a different PP for the day because each indicator uses a different start time. Sure thr FXI makes sense on the charts, but another one can make as much sense but with different values!

Sma
  • #55
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:47pm Jan 7, 2008 2:47pm
Bill,

All my analysis is done off a PP indicator that uses the NY COB as the start of the day.
  • #56
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:57pm Jan 7, 2008 2:57pm
John Person has a book about Pivots that's a little dry but very informative.

He states that many large institutions use a PP indicator on a 15 min chart based on the NY close.

I'm not smart enough to make this stuff up.

If you apply Pivots to a 15 min chart of the EURUSD you will notice some moves that go beyond coincidence.
  • #57
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:10pm Jan 7, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting acumen
John Person has a book about Pivots that's a little dry but very informative.

He states that many large institutions use a PP indicator on a 15 min chart based on the NY close.

I'm not smart enough to make this stuff up.

If you apply Pivots to a 15 min chart of the EURUSD you will notice some moves that go beyond coincidence.
I have always used the NY close to calculate pivots. A lot of people don't.
  • #58
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:36pm Jan 7, 2008 3:36pm
Quick One...
  • #59
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:40pm Jan 7, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting acumen
Quick One...
I have traded John Person's PP system.
  • #60
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:50pm Jan 7, 2008 4:50pm
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