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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #101
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:28am Jan 7, 2008 3:28am
There's been some talk of pyramiding positions here, and I wanted to throw out an idea of mine for good entry schemes in order to achieve maximum pips by pyramiding.

The idea is to wait for a trend to develop on your 4-hour(3-hour) chart. Then get on your 1-hour chart and get some nice entries.

Look at this post Christmas example of EUR/USD.

On the 3-hour chart, an uptrend just formed. It looks pretty nice and it's pretty obvious what's happening. Then zoom to the 1-hour chart and look at the nice entries you would have. Of course this is an ideal example, but pyramid away if you can

Also, if you can stay around a while, why not 30 minute entries, or possibly even 15-minute. You would only want to trade with the trend assuming it is strong, you would do pretty well with multiple positions focusing on one or two pairs. Personally, I don't have time for this, but I'm just throwing it out there.

Another thing, applying the strong trend filter, that is waiting for a trend to develop, could result in higher probability trades if we were just to trade as normal without multiple timeframes except only with the most recent strong trend.

Best of luck,

Kevin

PS. Don't PM me about indicators that would filter out bad trades! What is my thread called?!
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  • #102
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:18am Jan 7, 2008 4:18am
Quoting kharvell

PS. Don't PM me about indicators that would filter out bad trades! What is my thread called?!
How about adding a nonlamag or a MACD or a RSI or several MA or.... I'm kiddin'
  • #103
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:31am Jan 7, 2008 9:31am
I have been testing this method today... it is great!!!

1 hour time frame... pips in... did around 4/5 trades or so, I love this system... for me... I like to day trade a little... tight stops, I use around 15+spread (lets say 20) TP 50... the market will break either way and you'll be 10pips in the plus!

Yuppie, if not more...

It has worked for me today... have to carry on testing throughout this week.

This is the best system by far!!! This takes out all the emotion in trading!

Set and forget system!

Happy Pipping.
  • #104
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:00am Jan 7, 2008 11:00am
Quoting melpheos
How about adding a nonlamag or a MACD or a RSI or several MA or.... I'm kiddin'


Quote
I have been testing this method today... it is great!!!

1 hour time frame... pips in... did around 4/5 trades or so, I love this system... for me... I like to day trade a little... tight stops, I use around 15+spread (lets say 20) TP 50... the market will break either way and you'll be 10pips in the plus!

Yuppie, if not more...

It has worked for me today... have to carry on testing throughout this week.

This is the best system by far!!! This takes out all the emotion in trading!

Set and forget system!

Happy Pipping.

Hey guess,

I'm a little unsure if you got 4 wins using your 2:1 Reward to Risk TP and S/L or you used it the normal way.

If one must set a T/P, then I agree it should be greater than 2:1 R:R.

However, I'm content with riding the trends. To be honest, this is where the pips are at. Setting T/P IMO limits pips. Sure you get more now and you guarantee small profits and blah blah, but wasn't there an old saying about the tortoise beating the hare

At any rate, I've tried it both ways, just giving you my opinions..

Thanks for stopping by and let me know how your testing goes,

Kevin
  • #105
  • Jan 7, 2008 12:59pm Jan 7, 2008 12:59pm
Hi Kharvell,

Sorry I didn't get 4 wins on that ratio... I closed them off early, though if I had seen the trades through, they hit my TP. I was like :O and I would have got those rewards.

Though it is looking good... simple... don't need to spend too much screen time... though I do cheat a little

I am indicators on long term charts 4hr and 1day to see where the trend is going, just to help me... see if there is a retracement, if it is trending... etc... but I'll keep you posted on how get a long...

Thanks for opening my eyes... I am really surprised there has not been many people onto this thread... I am pretty new to forex, compared to a lot of you and I have realised, you can use indicators, but you have to look a price action on all time frames... i have found one thing... yes you look at the bigger picture... but the smaller picture is building the bigger picture.

Anyways... gotta go..
Guess

Quoting kharvell




Hey guess,

I'm a little unsure if you got 4 wins using your 2:1 Reward to Risk TP and S/L or you used it the normal way.

If one must set a T/P, then I agree it should be greater than 2:1 R:R.

However, I'm content with riding the trends. To be honest, this is where the pips are at. Setting T/P IMO limits pips. Sure you get more now and you guarantee small profits and blah blah, but wasn't there an old saying about the tortoise beating the hare

At any rate, I've tried it both ways, just giving you my opinions..

Thanks for stopping by and let me know how your testing goes,

Kevin
  • #106
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:41pm Jan 7, 2008 7:41pm
Hi Kevin,
Firstly thanks for the thread. I was wondering what your thoughts were on just trading in line with the trend? i.e, daily, say using a mav of 24 and only taking trades in the direction of that. You have obviously put a lot of thought into this I'm guessing by your no TP policy. I was thinking this would cut out false trades?
Regards, Bogus
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #107
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:43pm Jan 7, 2008 7:43pm
Will it break up or down??
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #108
  • Edited 8:30pm Jan 7, 2008 8:27pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting bogus
Will it break up or down??
I'm betting on down, because it reached this consolidation range from above. But I wouldn't put too much [on this bet] just yet...
Also, looking on higher tfs, this seems to be the direction - though it's approaching support.
  • #109
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:32pm Jan 7, 2008 11:32pm
with the carry trade/equities correlation, there is also some fundamental support for a downward break with the current recession fears. It may take a while and is probably going to be messy with lots of volatility but these levels holding as support is unlikely. A break will target 700 - 1000 pips longer term I believe
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #110
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:18am Jan 8, 2008 2:18am
Ive been going over a few pairs I've been watching today; g/j,a/u,n/u,e/j,c/y. Just on those pairs, going against the 3 day trend, would have been a great haul. For me, the stop and reverse is something I am going to have to get my head around. Back to testing.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #111
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:35pm Jan 8, 2008 1:35pm
I initiated first long position on Sunday at market open in e/j, g/j, u/j, c/j and a/j. These are some of my long entry triggers on u/j and g/j, last arrow is still waiting...., still have half positions running...
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  • #112
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:03pm Jan 8, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting raczekfx
I initiated first long position on Sunday at market open in e/j, g/j, u/j, c/j and a/j. These are some of my long entry triggers on u/j and g/j, last arrow is still waiting...., still have half positions running...
second pos. long on yen crosses stopped out and reversed. Still kind of testing this concept as a potential additional nice tool to complement j16 PA. Once again xx/chfs were leaders and xx/jpys followers today...
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  • #113
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:11pm Jan 8, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting bogus
Will it break up or down??
Hey bogus,

You're doing awesome man! Keep up the good work I want to address a thing or two about the above question and also trading in general.

First of all, what about sideways? Have you forgotten sideways already? This is very important. If there is a sideways trend, why would you care if it has broken one way or the other? You should probably be watching on the sidelines, because we like trends (at least I do), not sideways markets.

Second, predictions are for fortune tellers and mystics. If you could predict forex, you should be able to retire in a couple of weeks.

These are key questions to ask yourself before you place the trades:

How often do I want to enter? (What's my timeframe?)
What's the trend RIGHT NOW FOR MY TIMEFRAME? (Up, Down, SIDEWAYS)
Do I want to take this trade?

Basically, I am more interested in the present situation to my applicable circumstances rather than predictions. The present is more reliable than the future.
  • #114
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:17pm Jan 8, 2008 5:17pm
Thanks Kharvell,
Fair call.You're right, I'm no fortune teller. I'll ask myself those questions.
Cheers
Quoting kharvell
Hey bogus,

You're doing awesome man! Keep up the good work I want to address a thing or two about the above question and also trading in general.

First of all, what about sideways? Have you forgotten sideways already? This is very important. If there is a sideways trend, why would you care if it has broken one way or the other? You should probably be watching on the sidelines, because we like trends (at least I do), not sideways markets.

Second, predictions are for fortune tellers and mystics. If you could predict forex, you should be able to retire in a couple of weeks.

These are key questions to ask yourself before you place the trades:

How often do I want to enter? (What's my timeframe?)
What's the trend RIGHT NOW FOR MY TIMEFRAME? (Up, Down, SIDEWAYS)
Do I want to take this trade?

Basically, I am more interested in the present situation to my applicable circumstances rather than predictions. The present is more reliable than the future.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #115
  • Edited 4:00pm Jan 9, 2008 3:34pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting melpheos
Quick screenshot on GBPUSD on a demo account. This is not what i have taken as i'm just testing right now. Potential 550 pips - 1 loss
That quick test you did with the 30 pip target looked interesting but It looked like it had no stop and some trades drewdown quite a bit before reaching the target.

I tried it over 4 months with a 63 pip stop (including spread)trading each swing break (not fractal). I achieved an 82% hit rate and a profit factor of 2.2 returning 1278 pips. biggest winning streak was 12 and max consq. loss of only 3 with a max drawdown of 189. There is potential for a non trending strategy here that takes advantage of market volatility. If that performance continued, Trading at 2% risk per trade returns 12% per month and puts you in the elite bracket!
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #116
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:43pm Jan 9, 2008 3:43pm
Has anyone given any consideration to basing SL size off of a X ATR value?
  • #117
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:30am Jan 10, 2008 2:30am
Quoting longhornxtreme
Has anyone given any consideration to basing SL size off of a X ATR value?
I personnaly put the SL on shorter TF peak/valley...
  • #118
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:20am Jan 10, 2008 6:20am
You can also use the prior peak plus some multiple or fraction of the ATR for a stop as a way of dealing with the spikes above the peak.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #119
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:30am Jan 10, 2008 8:30am
I have been pretty busy this week, and have only made 2 trades since I am trading off the daily trend. Basically, my plan right now is to use peaks and valleys on the daily timeframe and to pyramid the crud out of good trends. Shouldn't take too much time, and it's where you will earn the most pips.

So far, I lost one EUR/JPY long trade, and am currently short GBP/CHF.
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  • #120
  • Jan 10, 2008 9:59pm Jan 10, 2008 9:59pm
anyone taking th gj ?
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