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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #57,221
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:17pm Jan 3, 2008 8:17pm
Quoting dagoods
saw that pinbar too....but doesnt a pinbar need to have a second candle close higher to be traded with confidence??(james 16) ??? i could be wrong.
You are correct. Since this is a Daily pin bar, we won't know if it's valid until we see how the current daily bar progresses. We could see price go down and retest the 213.50 area again as Aus has just called for. There is room on the 4H and 1H Stochastics for this thing to still move down and retest previous lows before retracing.

M2B
  • #57,222
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:22pm Jan 3, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting TarMac
Money, do you use this just on the 30 min time frame.
sorry tarmac it took so long, i took my son to basketball practice. to answer your question i use it on 15min, 30min primarily
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,223
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:23pm Jan 3, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting my2buoys
You are correct. Since this is a Daily pin bar, we won't know if it's valid until we see how the current daily bar progresses. We could see price go down and retest the 213.50 area again as Aus has just called for. There is room on the 4H and 1H Stochastics for this thing to still move down and retest previous lows before retracing.

M2B

  • #57,224
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:32pm Jan 3, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting dagoods
hey money can you expand on this for me... are you drawing your "gray areas" with fibs? how do you determine the top and bottom of the range channel? thanks in advance
sry it took so long, just got back from son's practice,

normally i would use fibs, tl's, stochs, qqe. on that particular run tl's, stochs, qqe workd better because moves were so fast. if you could take a quick peak you can see where the candles basically bounced in a range from basically the same high and low areas. i cant determine that for 2-3 hrs on 30 min chart then i just shade from the top to the bottom. i then wait for candle to breakout, let it close, then trade the 2nd or 3rd candle. depends on time of day, trend, announcements, etc. if i missed something let me know
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,225
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm
Quoting moneymagnet
sorry tarmac it took so long, i took my son to basketball practice. to answer your question i use it on 15min, 30min primarily
How do you determine where to put your lines and do you enter the trade on the brake of a line or need other conformation.
  • #57,226
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm Jan 3, 2008 8:37pm
Quoting moneymagnet
sry it took so long, just got back from son's practice,

normally i would use fibs, tl's, stochs, qqe. on that particular run tl's, stochs, qqe workd better because moves were so fast. if you could take a quick peak you can see where the candles basically bounced in a range from basically the same high and low areas. i cant determine that for 2-3 hrs on 30 min chart then i just shade from the top to the bottom. i then wait for candle to breakout, let it close, then trade the 2nd or 3rd candle. depends on time of day, trend, announcements, etc. if i missed something let me know

think u covered it all... oh wait u forgot bernakke and his money store ruining perfect setups every once in a while


serously though thanks for the great advice!
  • #57,227
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:39pm Jan 3, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting markam
Nikkei is down 544 points. All the japanese bears have been locked out of the action because of bank holiday after bank holiday. I think they want to make up for it.
Wow, did they ever make up for it!! Down over 600 points (over 4%)in one 1/2 day of trading. 4% loss in one day for the Dow would have the President on TV telling everyone not to panic. Man, if NFP should come out really bad, we will be in for one heck of a show tomorrow. It is not beyond the realm that a bad NFP could take Dow below 12,600. Does anyone know the rule about when the circuit breakers kick in on Wall Street? They could be in play tomorrow.
  • #57,228
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:40pm Jan 3, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting TarMac
How do you determine where to put your lines and do you enter the trade on the brake of a line or need other conformation.
Never mind, just saw it
  • #57,229
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:42pm Jan 3, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting moneymagnet
sry it took so long, just got back from son's practice,

normally i would use fibs, tl's, stochs, qqe. on that particular run tl's, stochs, qqe workd better because moves were so fast. if you could take a quick peak you can see where the candles basically bounced in a range from basically the same high and low areas. i cant determine that for 2-3 hrs on 30 min chart then i just shade from the top to the bottom. i then wait for candle to breakout, let it close, then trade the 2nd or 3rd candle. depends on time of day, trend, announcements, etc. if i missed something let me know

Here is an indicator that will do it for you. Inputs should be self explanatory.
Rod
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 The_Box.mq4   5 KB | 443 downloads
File Type: ex4 The_Box.ex4   8 KB | 344 downloads
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #57,230
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:49pm Jan 3, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting maestr2
Here is an indicator that will do it for you. Inputs should be self explanatory.
Rod
Maestr2, what program are these attachments on, my windows would not open them.
  • #57,231
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:53pm Jan 3, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting TarMac
Maestr2, what program are these attachments on, my windows would not open them.
MT4
  • #57,232
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:07pm Jan 3, 2008 9:07pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Wow, did they ever make up for it!! Down over 600 points (over 4%)in one 1/2 day of trading. 4% loss in one day for the Dow would have the President on TV telling everyone not to panic. Man, if NFP should come out really bad, we will be in for one heck of a show tomorrow. It is not beyond the realm that a bad NFP could take Dow below 12,600. Does anyone know the rule about when the circuit breakers kick in on Wall Street? They could be in play tomorrow.
It actually just changed slightly at the beginning of the year.

Quote
BC-NYSE-CIRCUITBREAKERS/ 01-01 0000
BC-NYSE-CIRCUITBREAKERS/
NYSE tweaks circuit breakers for first quarter
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange has
set its criteria for trading halts in the event of a steep
market drop, making only slight changes for the first quarter
from the fourth, according to data on the NYSE Web site.
For the first quarter, circuit breakers will kick in if
there is a drop of 1,350 points, or 10 percent, in the Dow
Jones industrial average.
There will be a one-hour halt in trading if the drop
happens before 2 p.m., a 30-minute halt if the decline occurs
between 2 p.m. and 2.30 p.m., and no halt after 2.30 p.m.,
according to the NYSE.
If the Dow drops 2,700 points or 20 percent, there will be
a two-hour halt if it happens before 1 p.m., a one-hour halt if
the slide occurs between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. and the market will
halt for the rest of the day if the slide happens after 2 p.m.
A plunge of 4,000 points or 30 percent -- no matter what
time it occurs -- would result in the market being closed for
the day. The previous trigger was slightly higher at 4,050
points.
  • #57,233
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:27pm Jan 3, 2008 9:27pm
Quoting maestr2
Here is an indicator that will do it for you. Inputs should be self explanatory.
Rod
thx
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,234
  • Edited 9:40pm Jan 3, 2008 9:38pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting moneymagnet
thx

hey all check out pips cruisers chart on the skunny indicator free trading thread..... very cool.... would indicate the retrace up is not over and agree with some of the earlier posts calling for a retrace to that 38 fib (at least)


thanks the chart pips cruiser!

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny - Page 70
  • #57,235
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:52pm Jan 3, 2008 9:52pm
Anybody know why the Nikkei is closed already? Short trading day or closed because it dropped so much?
  • #57,236
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:56pm Jan 3, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting dagoods
hey all check out pips cruisers chart on the skunny indicator free trading thread..... very cool.... would indicate the retrace up is not over and agree with some of the earlier posts calling for a retrace to that 38 fib (at least)


thanks the chart pips cruiser!

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny - Page 70

i didnt c anything in this statement by pc referring to any retracement? what did i miss?

Hi gang. Interesting thread! Does anyone think this G/J price movement could be another example of what Skunny has been teaching us here? Obviously it's a rather long term cycle, and it gets into negative fibs. But the price drop from Nov 1 - Nov 23 yields a -38.2 fib @ 213.58 that was hit yesterday.

Here's a daily G/J chart. Let me know what you think . . . maybe I'm pushing things too far . . . it wouldn't be the first time.

Edit: The sell order would be placed after the 0 fib is broken, and the TP would be the -38.2 fib.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #57,237
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:59pm Jan 3, 2008 9:59pm
Quoting markam
It actually just changed slightly at the beginning of the year.
I just took a long look at the Dow 5 year chart---and I must admit that the chart, combined with all this risk aversion, conjures up some scary scenarios. The chart I have is not very good, but it looks like 12,800 is the last line of defense for a while. Looks like some small support near 12,000, but nothing significant until 10,000-11,000 large area of support. If this area were to be breached in the comming days/weeks it would really turn ugly. 1st stop 8000, after that no comment...no way to predict how brokers jumping out of high rise buildings would affect market sentiment!LOL
  • #57,238
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:02pm Jan 3, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting markam
Anybody know why the Nikkei is closed already? Short trading day or closed because it dropped so much?
1/2 day of trading because of Holiday. Tomorrow will be a full day.
  • #57,239
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:02pm Jan 3, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting my2buoys
I've been in Florida for the last couple of weeks. I looked at charts down there but didn't do any trading over the Christmas holiday. I was too busy having fun with my wife and two sons. Yes, we did Disneyworld. Anyway, I like Lepiricus' chart he just posted. I think his retrace numbers could be valid. My daily chart, which closed at 7PM EST, is showing a nice bullish pin bar and the Daily is way OS. 219.20 is the 38.2 Fib from the last move down. I know NFP is tomorrow but it doesn't directly affect GBP/JPY. Price could consolidate below the 216.20 area until the TF's from 4H on down become OB and price could then shoot down again. I personally like retracements to hard Fib levels like 38.2 and 50. London will probably be the deciding factor later tonight, and with NFP tomorrow they might be cautious about moving too much in either direction.

M2B

sorry i was referring to this as well as lepricus analysis and quecees earlier call for POSSIBLE retrace to 218 + areas ...... just trying to see all the angles i am not in any trade right now ..... hope that clears it up
  • #57,240
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:04pm Jan 3, 2008 10:04pm
Quoting my2buoys
I've been in Florida for the last couple of weeks. I looked at charts down there but didn't do any trading over the Christmas holiday. I was too busy having fun with my wife and two sons. Yes, we did Disneyworld. Anyway, I like Lepiricus' chart he just posted. I think his retrace numbers could be valid. My daily chart, which closed at 7PM EST, is showing a nice bullish pin bar and the Daily is way OS. 219.20 is the 38.2 Fib from the last move down. I know NFP is tomorrow but it doesn't directly affect GBP/JPY. Price could consolidate below the 216.20 area until the TF's from 4H on down become OB and price could then shoot down again. I personally like retracements to hard Fib levels like 38.2 and 50. London will probably be the deciding factor later tonight, and with NFP tomorrow they might be cautious about moving too much in either direction.

M2B

i was referrring to m2b and also lepricus anlysis and also quecee had mentioned a POSSIBILITY) of retraceing to over 218.....
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