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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #57,201
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:51pm Jan 3, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting TarMac
Anyone no why this thing is falling so much the past few minutes. Was there an announcement or anything. Just wondering.
The japanese stock market has been shut down for days and days. It finally reopened and is way down. That is driving down GJ.
  • #57,202
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:53pm Jan 3, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting quecee5
dagoods,

Nice scalp my friend =
I got stopped out of my scalp for 80 pips while @ the gym. That "geppy" know it can travel some pips.

Still working on my EU short, taking its own sweet time retracing to the lows. Might look to re-enter GJ again if the set-up looks right but for now I'll just sit on the sideline and watch it range up and down for now. . .

yep... wiaiting for many pairs to break their ranges and decide what is next... check mike w's thread out if u get c chance.... need your help!
  • #57,203
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:53pm Jan 3, 2008 6:53pm
-570 now. I'm very surprised the bulls haven't taken the opportunity to get in a low price. This says a lot to me about the risk aversion going on. The next few hours will be key.

PS. In general if the Nikkei tanks, the Yen strengthens due to carry trade unwinding, ie. GBPJPY (and other Yen crosses) become bearish, but it's not always that straightforward. After how disconnected things became in December I stopped worrying about what the other indices were doing. If you followed the assumption that Nikkei and GBPJPY have a positive correlation you might have made a few pips just now, but it's taken a 4% drop in the Nikkei for just a 100 pip drop in GBPJPY, and 40-50 pips in USDJPY. Looking at the correlations of GBPUSD and USDJPY to GBPJPY further, most of the GBPJPY movement is attributable to a general decrease in the value of GBP in relation to other currencies rather than a general increase in JPY. In short, forget about the Nikkei for the moment unless you really know what you are doing.
  • #57,204
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:55pm Jan 3, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting dagoods
thanks markam.... i ahte to admit it but i'm still confused! lol can you put that in terms an idiot like me can understand????
People borrow yen, convert to another currency and invest in the global stock markets. During bull markets, this creates a glut of yen in the forex market, weakening the yen. On bad market days, it is working in reverse. People are buying yen to repay their loans, creating demand for the yen.
  • #57,205
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:56pm Jan 3, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting markam
The japanese stock market has been shut down for days and days. It finally reopened and is way down. That is driving down GJ.

thank u markam... i will put that little kenel of knowledge away for use at a later date! good stuff..... nikkei down = gj may go down....got it... so what do u think of the geppy then ... no retrace just straight to the bottom and the subsequent collapse of civilization????? give us a masters take!
  • #57,206
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:57pm Jan 3, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting dagoods
yep... wiaiting for many pairs to break their ranges and decide what is next... check mike w's thread out if u get c chance.... need your help!
is it the gu thread he posted earlier????
  • #57,207
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:03pm Jan 3, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting quecee5
is it the gu thread he posted earlier????

on the bottom of his post ....mike w trading journal....
  • #57,208
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:06pm Jan 3, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting dagoods
on the bottom of his post ....mike w trading journal....
k, got it. . .
  • #57,209
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:12pm Jan 3, 2008 7:12pm
Not much has change for me since yesterday. I am still long, and bought again at 214. Looking for a 38.2% retrace at least to 219.20 area. I Would like to see the 221 50% retrace. QQE is still oversold and has yet to cross though. I guess the nikkei is throwing a monkey wrench in my long plans for the moment
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  • #57,210
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:21pm Jan 3, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting moneymagnet
just wanted to show u guys what i have been doing the last couple days. its simple and combined with aus' strategy and other things it has been profitable. i just trade the break and close of the consolidation area(shaded in yellow) in either direction. this is a clean chart w/o fibs, tl's, etc. or you would not have seen it otherwise.
Money, do you use this just on the 30 min time frame.
  • #57,211
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:23pm Jan 3, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting markam
People borrow yen, convert to another currency and invest in the global stock markets. During bull markets, this creates a glut of yen in the forex market, weakening the yen. On bad market days, it is working in reverse. People are buying yen to repay their loans, creating demand for the yen.

In other words when nikkei is down gj is down and when dow is down gj is/could be down as well??
  • #57,212
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:24pm Jan 3, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting moneymagnet
just wanted to show u guys what i have been doing the last couple days. its simple and combined with aus' strategy and other things it has been profitable. i just trade the break and close of the consolidation area(shaded in yellow) in either direction. this is a clean chart w/o fibs, tl's, etc. or you would not have seen it otherwise.

hey money can you expand on this for me... are you drawing your "gray areas" with fibs? how do you determine the top and bottom of the range channel? thanks in advance
  • #57,213
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:29pm Jan 3, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting the1boss
Yes I am bit confuse about this situation as well
Hey, Boss,

You don't have enough posts to have link attachments in your signature, and even if you did, this is not a porno forum, it's a trading room. Clean it up or go somewhere else.

M2B
  • #57,214
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting my2buoys
Hey, Boss,

You don't have enough posts to have link attachments in your signature, and even if you did, this is not a porno forum, it's a trading room. Clean it up or go somewhere else.

M2B
Whew....glad I didnt click on that link.
  • #57,215
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm
Hey M2B! Long-time-no-see. Hope you had good holidays! What's your take on the Gbp/Jpy?
  • #57,216
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm Jan 3, 2008 7:33pm
good to see you back M2B. Missed your posts in the forum
  • #57,217
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:36pm Jan 3, 2008 7:36pm
Quoting goodness
In other words when nikkei is down gj is down and when dow is down gj is/could be down as well??
exactamundo.
  • #57,218
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:40pm Jan 3, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting lepiricus
Not much has change for me since yesterday. I am still long, and bought again at 214. Looking for a 38.2% retrace at least to 219.20 area. I Would like to see the 221 50% retrace. QQE is still oversold and has yet to cross though. I guess the nikkei is throwing a monkey wrench in my long plans for the moment

just wondering if you are easing into a long position for a long long term trade ???? many are calling for g/u to go to 1.9650 (aus) and fib people on skunnys thread.... so that would seem like its next logical move.... and take gj down some more with it..... but that doesnt mean today necessarrily..... just wondering your thought process on going countertrend or holding onto your counter trend position??? ie at what point to you leave that 38 fib for another time and look to lower fibs to be hit first.... sorry just trying learn fibs.... thanks in advance
  • #57,219
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:51pm Jan 3, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting let'erpip
Hey M2B! Long-time-no-see. Hope you had good holidays! What's your take on the Gbp/Jpy?
I've been in Florida for the last couple of weeks. I looked at charts down there but didn't do any trading over the Christmas holiday. I was too busy having fun with my wife and two sons. Yes, we did Disneyworld. Anyway, I like Lepiricus' chart he just posted. I think his retrace numbers could be valid. My daily chart, which closed at 7PM EST, is showing a nice bullish pin bar and the Daily is way OS. 219.20 is the 38.2 Fib from the last move down. I know NFP is tomorrow but it doesn't directly affect GBP/JPY. Price could consolidate below the 216.20 area until the TF's from 4H on down become OB and price could then shoot down again. I personally like retracements to hard Fib levels like 38.2 and 50. London will probably be the deciding factor later tonight, and with NFP tomorrow they might be cautious about moving too much in either direction.

M2B
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  • #57,220
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:59pm Jan 3, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting my2buoys
I've been in Florida for the last couple of weeks. I looked at charts down there but didn't do any trading over the Christmas holiday. I was too busy having fun with my wife and two sons. Yes, we did Disneyworld. Anyway, I like Lepiricus' chart he just posted. I think his retrace numbers could be valid. My daily chart, which closed at 7PM EST, is showing a nice bullish pin bar and the Daily is way OS. 219.20 is the 38.2 Fib from the last move down. I know NFP is tomorrow but it doesn't directly affect GBP/JPY. Price could consolidate below the 216.20 area until the TF's from 4H on down become OB and price could then shoot down again. I personally like retracements to hard Fib levels like 38.2 and 50. London will probably be the deciding factor later tonight, and with NFP tomorrow they might be cautious about moving too much in either direction.

M2B

saw that pinbar too....but doesnt a pinbar need to have a second candle close higher to be traded with confidence??(james 16) ??? i could be wrong

of course those daily and wekly pinbars are very nice.... and seem to usually indicate price reversal points...... but its just that 138 extention on the gu seems like it wants to be hit first and that could affect the geppy..... also, we are still trading below the trendlines and in a down trend the likes of which hasnt been seen in a long long time..... so to me i'd rather look for short opportunities with the trend.... ????
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