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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #57,161
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:44pm Jan 3, 2008 2:44pm
Im thinking we are possibly setting up an ABC pattern for NFP tomorrow. (1 hr chart)Thats if the 215.24 area holds.
  • #57,162
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:45pm Jan 3, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting PipChick
Nice lightbulb..lol
haha fo sho
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #57,163
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:47pm Jan 3, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting PipChick
Im thinking we are possibly setting up an ABC pattern for NFP tomorrow. (1 hr chart)Thats if the 215.24 area holds.
Yes Ma'am! I think the same way. Everyone here should check out LearntoCount's posts if you haven't already read them. This guy is a fantastic trader.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #57,164
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:48pm Jan 3, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting dagoods
I'll be looking to scalp a long from here at some point.... my gpb/jpy shorts are all closed for now.... I am waiting for a break of the range that has developed (see mm's post above) and going to try to catch a few pips on the retracing to the upside with tight MM and tight stops.... i expect long but am aware that we are in a HUGE down trend and respect that.... so this is an advanced countertrend play..... not for the faint of heart and only if all of my criteria are met...... including a break of the upside trendline resistance and confirmation....this is not a trade call.... just posting so others can comment and we can learn from each other
This last push up ("IF IT HAPPENS") should be equal to that last move down (300 pips) which should end at around the daily pivot (218.60's) from where price is currently!

TRADE WISE AND TRADE SMART!
GOOD LUCK!
  • #57,165
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:49pm Jan 3, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting mike w
haha fo sho
About 50% or more of the time you can pretty much tell the outcome of data releases before they happen from observing chart patterns.So if 215.24 holds and the price continues to test it and bounce after a few hours then we will have a long trade. I usually let it bounce once or twice before buying.Its a lo risk trade because if you buy off the bounce and you are wrong, you are only risking a few pips.
  • #57,166
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:50pm Jan 3, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting mike w
Yes Ma'am! I think the same way. Everyone here should check out LearntoCount's posts if you haven't already read them. This guy is a fantastic trader.
Where are his posts? A different thread?
  • #57,167
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:51pm Jan 3, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting PipChick
About 50% or more of the time you can pretty much tell the outcome of data releases before they happen from observing chart patterns.So if 215.24 holds and the price continues to test it and bounce after a few hours then we will have a long trade. I usually let it bounce once or twice before buying.Its a lo risk trade because if you buy off the bounce and you are wrong, you are only risking a few pips.
I agree although I am never a buyer in a downwards market. Instead, I'll wait till it gets up there to short again. Double bottoms and even triple bottoms are where it's at!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #57,168
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:52pm Jan 3, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting PipChick
Where are his posts? A different thread?
Yeah, check out my profile, I have him buddied up. His thoughts are exacting to yours and mine on the retracement upwards.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #57,169
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:53pm Jan 3, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting mike w
Yeah, check out my profile, I have him buddied up. His thoughts are exacting to yours and mine on the retracement upwards.
Great! Thanks Mike!
  • #57,170
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:54pm Jan 3, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting fish2007
I am waiting to see what happens as well. Period of consolidation/indecision needs to disappear. Head and shoulder on my weekly suggest overall downward trend.
Monthly support S2 215.34, S3 209.5867. If it break pass this S2 should see some PIPS.

However what would be the effect of the US news report? US/JPY relation, GBP/US and the net effect on GBP/JPY. This might create a temp stall or help the pair on its way down. My two cents. Anyone else care to share some light. IMHO
I will try. NFP bad---UJ 105-107 here we come. Careful below this area as BOJ could get involved. GU would get a bump, but it would be muted as the world seems to be locked in a struggle as to which currency it dislikes the most, GBP or USD. NFP good-- UJ would have some upward effect, but not sure how much while this risk aversion is going on. Good NFP could only delay the march we are on for 107ish retest. GU will head lower. GBP is currently losing the battle of the stinky currencies, so any excuse to push it lower will be welcomed.
Summary--risk aversion and yen buying is the order of the day. There is no line on a chart that, if hit, will turn this around. Something is going to have to happen, fundamentally, to turn GJ around and bring carry trade back into favor. Until that happens, one would need a very definative and clearly thought out trade plan before you could push the buy button for GJ. A GJ buy would mean you are scalping a retrace.
BTW, if I am wrong and the BOJ does nothing to prevent Yen strength (unlikley, but possible) there is really no way to know how far GJ could fall. Under that scenario, UJ would probably try for 100.00 with USD.
  • #57,171
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:55pm Jan 3, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting PipChick
About 50% or more of the time you can pretty much tell the outcome of data releases before they happen from observing chart patterns.So if 215.24 holds and the price continues to test it and bounce after a few hours then we will have a long trade. I usually let it bounce once or twice before buying.Its a lo risk trade because if you buy off the bounce and you are wrong, you are only risking a few pips.
Continuation of this thought.... If it keeps bouncing off of 215.24 and makes it above 217.04 it will prolly rest there.....building a rt shoulder (1 hr) ...in preparation for NFP.
  • #57,172
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:58pm Jan 3, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting PipChick
About 50% or more of the time you can pretty much tell the outcome of data releases before they happen from observing chart patterns.So if 215.24 holds and the price continues to test it and bounce after a few hours then we will have a long trade. I usually let it bounce once or twice before buying.Its a lo risk trade because if you buy off the bounce and you are wrong, you are only risking a few pips.
Hi PipChick and all,

Based on COT data on Usd/Jpy, it is a bullish for this week, thus bullish for Gbp/Jpy as well. It is a lagging indcator but we have not seen this pair moving up yet and tomorrow is last trading day for the week. Thus, very likely this pair will go up from today's close. Well, let's see
  • #57,173
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:02pm Jan 3, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting mktjong
Hi PipChick and all,

Based on COT data on Usd/Jpy, it is a bullish for this week, thus bullish for Gbp/Jpy as well. It is a lagging indcator but we have not seen this pair moving up yet and tomorrow is last trading day for the week. Thus, very likely this pair will go up from today's close. Well, let's see
Hi mktjong. I was wondering where you have been.Thanks for the info from COT!
  • #57,174
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:07pm Jan 3, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting PipChick
Hi mktjong. I was wondering where you have been.Thanks for the info from COT!
Well, I have been away from this forum for months. I like doing swing trading now thus less hassle And do not like posting much anymore .. hehee.
Occasionally, still checking out this forum and there. Hoep you are doing good
Thanks.
  • #57,175
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:08pm Jan 3, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting mktjong
Well, I have been away from this forum for months. I like doing swing trading now thus less hassle And do not like posting much anymore .. hehee.
Occasionally, still checking out this forum and there. Hoep you are doing good
Thanks.
Well its nice to see you when you pop in.
  • #57,176
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:17pm Jan 3, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting PipChick
Continuation of this thought.... If it keeps bouncing off of 215.24 and makes it above 217.04 it will prolly rest there.....building a rt shoulder (1 hr) ...in preparation for NFP.
Here's my take, everyone knows the situation is bad for both GBP and USD and things will get worse before it gets better. IMO, the inevitable will happen no matter the outcome of the NFP numbers 2morrow. There will always be other data that will remind the market how bad things are.

For 2nite, I see Asian/Tokyo/London "short squeeze" up to gather momentum for the big fall to new lows. . . Just think about this, GJ has violated major support levels all the way down to 213.60's well, why didn't it just keep right on going? What significant news did GJ get that turned it back toward 216.xx. Why is price hovering ar'd 215.50/60's. . . Why isn't it just free falling?
The answer is GREED!
Watch for the rumour 2nite that NPF is great or NFP is this or that, any excuse to get this thing headed north up until 15 minutes before the announcement and then it will accelerate to the downside if new is bad!

Seen it happen too many times on this pair. . .
  • #57,177
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:21pm Jan 3, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting quecee5
Here's my take, everyone knows the situation is bad for both GBP and USD and things will get worse before it gets better. IMO, the inevitable will happen no matter the outcome of the NFP numbers 2morrow. There will always be other data that will remind the market how bad things are.

For 2nite, I see Asian/Tokyo/London "short squeeze" up to gather momentum for the big fall to new lows. . . Just think about this, GJ has violated major support levels all the way down to 213.60's well, why didn't it just keep right on going? What good news did GJ get that turned it back toward 216.xx. Why is price hovering ar'd 215.60's. . .
The answer is GREED!
Watch for the rumour 2nite that NPF is great or NFP is this or that, any excuse to get this thing headed north up until 15 minutes before the announcement and then it will accelerate to the downside if new is bad!

Seen it happen many times on this pair. . .
And we have to be ready to trade which ever way it decides to go.
  • #57,178
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:24pm Jan 3, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I will try. NFP bad---UJ 105-107 here we come. Careful below this area as BOJ could get involved. GU would get a bump, but it would be muted as the world seems to be locked in a struggle as to which currency it dislikes the most, GBP or USD. NFP good-- UJ would have some upward effect, but not sure how much while this risk aversion is going on. Good NFP could only delay the march we are on for 107ish retest. GU will head lower. GBP is currently losing the battle of the stinky currencies, so any excuse to push it lower will be welcomed.
Summary--risk aversion and yen buying is the order of the day. There is no line on a chart that, if hit, will turn this around. Something is going to have to happen, fundamentally, to turn GJ around and bring carry trade back into favor. Until that happens, one would need a very definative and clearly thought out trade plan before you could push the buy button for GJ. A GJ buy would mean you are scalping a retrace.
BTW, if I am wrong and the BOJ does nothing to prevent Yen strength (unlikley, but possible) there is really no way to know how far GJ could fall. Under that scenario, UJ would probably try for 100.00 with USD.

here is another that i read for your consideration:

"Tomorrow we will have a good opportunity for a trade at 8:30 am
EST, when the US Non-Farm Payrolls report is released. We will
focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which is expected to be
70k jobs. A higher than expected number will be good for the
USD and signal a short on the GBP/USD, and a lower than
expected number will be bad for the USD and signal a long on
the GBP/USD. We will be looking for a deviation of 50k on this
report to trigger a safe trade."
  • #57,179
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:28pm Jan 3, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting quecee5
Here's my take, everyone knows the situation is bad for both GBP and USD and things will get worse before it gets better. IMO, the inevitable will happen no matter the outcome of the NFP numbers 2morrow. There will always be other data that will remind the market how bad things are.

For 2nite, I see Asian/Tokyo/London "short squeeze" up to gather momentum for the big fall to new lows. . . Just think about this, GJ has violated major support levels all the way down to 213.60's well, why didn't it just keep right on going? What significant news did GJ get that turned it back toward 216.xx. Why is price hovering ar'd 215.50/60's. . . Why isn't it just free falling?
The answer is GREED!
Watch for the rumour 2nite that NPF is great or NFP is this or that, any excuse to get this thing headed north up until 15 minutes before the announcement and then it will accelerate to the downside if new is bad!

Seen it happen too many times on this pair. . .
Well said. I agree 100%.
  • #57,180
  • Jan 3, 2008 3:37pm Jan 3, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting PipChick
And we have to be ready to trade which ever way it decides to go.
Yeah, you are absolutely right! We must trade what we see in the charts.
Didn't mean to clutter the thread with the babbling. . .
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