EURUSD forecast & Chaos theory | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics 1,757 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Anybody write ea with bill williams' chaos theory? 13 replies

EURUSD forecast & market Sentiment 14 replies

Looking For Chaos Fratal Indicator 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD forecast & Chaos theory
Exit Attachments

EURUSD forecast & Chaos theory

  • #61
  • Jan 1, 2008 11:59am Jan 1, 2008 11:59am
probably a good trade is coming out eu, lets wait if fed cut rates again, that could cause a big usd selloff.
for now in my opinion is better keep away that pair. better to focus on yen crosses and equities.

high inflation and fed cutting rates? thats not a good sign.
  • #62
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:17pm Jan 1, 2008 12:17pm
Acidguy - Hope you did well on the EUR/JPY we talked about on the weekend!

It moved 250 pips even though people here were saying to long EUR

I still believe EUR is going lower in the next few days but I too am staying away from EUR / USD.

I much prefer long NZD/AUD although this has to be created synthetically by going long NZD / USD and short AUD / USD. You pay 2 bid offers and double the margin.

Just my 2 cents
  • #63
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:59pm Jan 1, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting acidguy
for now in my opinion is better keep away that pair. better to focus on yen crosses and equities.
Yes! I agree. EUR/USD is like Las Vegas right now.

rudenstein
  • #64
  • Edited 2:10pm Jan 1, 2008 1:38pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting rudenstein
Yes! I agree. EUR/USD is like Las Vegas right now.

rudenstein
EURUSD is my favorite pair so I never part with it. What is going on now is common for the time when the market chooses new goals (1.50 or 1.41).
  • #65
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:29pm Jan 1, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting Aleksey
EURUSD is my favorite pair so I never part with it. What is going on now is common for the time when the market chooses new goals (1.50 or 1.41).

The interest rate differential between EUR and USD (.25%) is very small and therefore it is hard, if not impossible to distinguish bulls from bears precisely (and why they act as they do). When the differential is this small, eratic movement will be more based on CPI, Housing reports, etc rather than stock market strength differentials. Right now I'd stay away from it for long-term trades.

rudenstein.
  • #66
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:54pm Jan 1, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting rudenstein
The interest rate differential between EUR and USD (.25%) is very small and therefore it is hard, if not impossible to distinguish bulls from bears precisely (and why they act as they do). When the differential is this small, eratic movement will be more based on CPI, Housing reports, etc rather than stock market strength differentials. Right now I'd stay away from it for long-term trades.

rudenstein.
There are many reasons determining the market move but anyway I trade how my system talks. I prefer the basket but the thread is about EURUSD so I will show all system signals.
  • #67
  • Jan 1, 2008 3:43pm Jan 1, 2008 3:43pm
If your system survives 2008 then it can survive any year.
  • #68
  • Jan 1, 2008 11:18pm Jan 1, 2008 11:18pm
Quoting Aleksey
There are many reasons determining the market move but anyway I trade how my system talks. I prefer the basket but the thread is about EURUSD so I will show all system signals.
so what u think where is eur/usd next direction and target according to daily charts?
  • #69
  • Jan 1, 2008 11:58pm Jan 1, 2008 11:58pm
i have question if we go with daily chart when we should have close the deal
about how many pips max?

i dont have expereince with daily chart

could anyone tell me about two days wait 7 days or so for close the deal?
  • #70
  • Edited 11:26am Jan 2, 2008 3:50am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting Designer1
so what u think where is eur/usd next direction and target according to daily charts?
I can say nothing about future long-term direction now. I need to see the closing of a day at least but I think I will be able to say anything only in some days.
  • #71
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:55am Jan 2, 2008 3:55am
Quoting Designer1
i have question if we go with daily chart when we should have close the deal
about how many pips max?

i dont have expereince with daily chart

could anyone tell me about two days wait 7 days or so for close the deal?
It depend on market dynamics; usually from 2-3 days to 1-2 months.
  • #72
  • Edited 1:47pm Jan 2, 2008 1:06pm | Edited 1:47pm
As a fact. This year will be bear for GBPJPY.
Attached Image
  • #73
  • Jan 3, 2008 12:03am Jan 3, 2008 12:03am
a fact? have you seen the future aleksey? I could bet my house on a fact. I could take out a high interest loan and safely bet that also. However, for me, it is only a probability. How do you see facts?
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #74
  • Edited 4:52am Jan 3, 2008 3:55am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
a fact? have you seen the future aleksey? I could bet my house on a fact. I could take out a high interest loan and safely bet that also. However, for me, it is only a probability. How do you see facts?
For me as for a professional physicist in the past the hight probability is a fact. Certainly, I can not exactly say it as well as I can not exactly say that I well run across the road on the red light even if I will not see any cars but my experience allows me to regard it as a fact.
  • #75
  • Edited 5:39am Jan 3, 2008 5:22am | Edited 5:39am
Some words about current situation... So the yesterday's closing shown that the up-trend is in force. I am waiting for some lowering for some future days (within one handle). If the up-trend will be confirmed afterwards, we see 1.5000 soon.
Attached Image
  • #76
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:11am Jan 3, 2008 6:11am
Quoting Aleksey
For me as for a professional physicist in the past the hight probability is a fact. Certainly, I can not exactly say it as well as I can not exactly say that I well run across the road on the red light even if I will not see any cars but my experience allows me to regard it as a fact.
This is forex, not physics

In addition, as interesting as this theory is that you are researching, the argument has been made over the past 4 months, that the involement of mathematicians in the market has lead to some of the trouble we are seeing now. Indeed, forex can be quantified mathematically, no doubt. However, it exists outside the mathematical realm and outside the control of mathematics. Important not to forget this.

rudenstein
  • #77
  • Edited 10:39am Jan 3, 2008 6:45am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting rudenstein
This is forex, not physics

In addition, as interesting as this theory is that you are researching, the argument has been made over the past 4 months, that the involement of mathematicians in the market has lead to some of the trouble we are seeing now. Indeed, forex can be quantified mathematically, no doubt. However, it exists outside the mathematical realm and outside the control of mathematics. Important not to forget this.

rudenstein
For me Forex is more easy to research than that I have researched before. There are not surfers who can control an ocean but they can use its force thanks to their skills and experience.
  • #78
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:48am Jan 3, 2008 8:48am
Well then,

keep us posted on your experience and progress I think we all would like to hear from you. Good luck!

rudenstein
  • #79
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:00am Jan 3, 2008 9:00am
hi Alexey,

I read that book "chaos theory" a while back.
(Folks, this wasn't a trading book)

Wasn't the point of the book that you CAN NOT
really predict behavior in a complex system?

They gave the example of the weather. No
one can predict passed a few days because
the system is too dynamic.

I'm curious what you say about this in relation
to the market.

Cheers, Chester B.
  • #80
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:35am Jan 3, 2008 9:35am
Quoting rudenstein
Well then,

keep us posted on your experience and progress I think we all would like to hear from you. Good luck!

rudenstein
Thanks!
0 traders viewing now