Revisions, can someone explain? | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

TTO; Can someone explain??? 5 replies

can someone explain to me. how is trailing stop really works!!-please see the example 4 replies

Revisions, Revisions 4 replies

Can someone please explain 2 replies

Can someone please explain what a contract is... 2 replies

Revisions, can someone explain?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 6, 2007 12:24pm Jan 6, 2007 12:24pm
a little confusing to me but can anyone explain when are revisions due, and what's going on with them? Let me explain what I think revisions are and maybe you can correct my thinking.

The NFP on Jan. 5. 07 was revised because a leading indicator such as ADP gave analysts sentiment it was more bearish than forecasted. Thus, the forecast was revised prior to the release of the number.

However, I've also heard revisions after the actual number have came out. When are these revisions released, and how significant of an impact does it have relative to actual release of the number? Does every economic number have a revision?
  • #2
  • Jan 6, 2007 1:06pm Jan 6, 2007 1:06pm
The expected number was revised down before the news release. The news release itself had some revision data for actual number for previously released in December.
  • #3
  • Jan 6, 2007 1:30pm Jan 6, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting nitman
The expected number was revised down before the news release. The news release itself had some revision data for actual number for previously released in December.
ok I understand the first part, and that's before the actual number. The second part of your comment to me sounds like the actual number released incorporated revisions as well? Will there be any further revisions after the actual number is released? Is the revision an explanation for ADP's discrepency?
  • #4
  • Jan 7, 2007 3:39am Jan 7, 2007 3:39am
Correct me if i'm wrong, but here's what i know.

There are two types of revision. The revision of the forecast/consensus is just basically the economists change their mind about the expected number for the upcoming data. This might be caused by other economic releases that correlate to it, such as ADP and NFP (although now we know ADP isn't that accurate on predicting NFP figures)

Second kind of revision is the revision of previous month's data. For example NFP. Every month US Gov sends out survey to big compannies regarding new jobs created, excluding the farming industry, thus called 'nonfarm'. At the first Friday of each month this data is released to the public. Yet at this time, it's possible that not all the data have been received back by the US Gov. So the month after that, assuming that more datas have been received from the previous month, the US gov announces a revision of the previous NFP, which gives a more accurate picture of the US economy. That's why if the revision differ quite significantly, the market will react to the revision of previous month rather than the actual for the current month, as the current month data might still be revised again next month.

Hope this helps
  • #5
  • Jan 7, 2007 10:20am Jan 7, 2007 10:20am
Quoting out_kold
Correct me if i'm wrong, but here's what i know.

There are two types of revision. The revision of the forecast/consensus is just basically the economists change their mind about the expected number for the upcoming data. This might be caused by other economic releases that correlate to it, such as ADP and NFP (although now we know ADP isn't that accurate on predicting NFP figures)

Second kind of revision is the revision of previous month's data. For example NFP. Every month US Gov sends out survey to big compannies regarding new jobs created, excluding the farming industry, thus called 'nonfarm'. At the first Friday of each month this data is released to the public. Yet at this time, it's possible that not all the data have been received back by the US Gov. So the month after that, assuming that more datas have been received from the previous month, the US gov announces a revision of the previous NFP, which gives a more accurate picture of the US economy. That's why if the revision differ quite significantly, the market will react to the revision of previous month rather than the actual for the current month, as the current month data might still be revised again next month.

Hope this helps

very well explained. Thank you, are the revision numbers posted in FF as a weekly economic number on the calender? How do we know when they come out? Are there any expectations from analysts in terms of revisions?
  • #6
  • Jan 7, 2007 2:01pm Jan 7, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting Trader1580
very well explained. Thank you, are the revision numbers posted in FF as a weekly economic number on the calender? How do we know when they come out? Are there any expectations from analysts in terms of revisions?
No, the revisions are not posted on FF, i believe you have to subscribe to a news service for this such as Bloomberg etc. I don't know if there's a free one out there. The revision of the prev month data always come out at the same time with the release of the current month data. There are some data that gets revised everytime and some that don't get any revision at all, so you just have to know which ones which.

Economists usually don't comment that much about revision prior to its release. Market tends to react initially on the current month data then adjust accordingly to the revision of the previous month.
A very good example for this is Nov NFP, if you can see the graph for Nov NFP, gbp/usd went up by about 20-30 pips seconds after the data is released. It was 92k vs expected 130k, so bad for USD, but then once ppl noticed that the previous month's data was significantly revised to 148k from 51k g/u dropped by about +80 pips.
  • #7
  • Jan 7, 2007 2:07pm Jan 7, 2007 2:07pm
all you have to do is look at the news release itself at the BLS site http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
  • #8
  • Jan 7, 2007 2:37pm Jan 7, 2007 2:37pm
thank you for the further elaborations, very very helpful and clear. One last comment I have about the revisions are that, taken from your example the Nov. NFP, if the prior month's data was heavily revised, then the traders have less credibility in regards of the current number that is posted along with last month's revisions?
  • #9
  • Jan 7, 2007 3:54pm Jan 7, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting Trader1580
thank you for the further elaborations, very very helpful and clear. One last comment I have about the revisions are that, taken from your example the Nov. NFP, if the prior month's data was heavily revised, then the traders have less credibility in regards of the current number that is posted along with last month's revisions?
From my understanding, that's exactly right. If last months number was heavily revised, then ppl would start questioning the accuracy of the current number as well. So rather than acting on the current number, they prefer to act on the revision.
  • #10
  • Last Post: Jan 7, 2007 3:57pm Jan 7, 2007 3:57pm
Quoting nitman
all you have to do is look at the news release itself at the BLS site http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
yes, i'm sure they also post the revision there. Do you know how fast they update it?
0 traders viewing now