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the key to the mint

  • #1,021
  • Edited 12:04am Jan 2, 2008 12:01am | Edited 12:04am
I have been following this thread since mid December and I have attached an Excel file showing all trades for 6 currencies Harold is following. Below is the results since Dec 21st excluding spreads:

GBPUSD : +90 pips - 5 trades - 15 pips spread
GBPJPY : +17 pips - 4 trades - 16 pips spread
GBPCHF : +90 pips - 7 trades - 28 pips spread
EURJPY : +2 pips - 5 trades - 4 pips spread
EURCAD : -75 pips - 8 trades - 32 pips spread
CADJPY : +31 pips - 8 trades - 32 pips spread

Total: : +155 pips -127 pips spread

Net Result : +28 pips

I have used Oanda spreads which I believe the tightest spreads available in the market.

I know that this period was a holiday season and may not be indicative for future results.

I am also aware that Harold recommends discretion, but if you look at the spreadsheet, it is difficult to find a common point such as overbought/oversold stochastics to use discretion. For example; CADJPY long trades on 24/12 and 28/12 resulted in +30 pips while stoch was in overbought region and GBBCHF short trade on 21/12 resulted in -30 pips while stoch was not in oversold region.

I am not trying to judge this system because 10 days of forward testing is just meaningless, but these are the facts anyone who follows this thread should be aware of, IMO.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls KEYMINT SYSTEM.xls   20 KB | 845 downloads
  • #1,022
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:26am Jan 2, 2008 5:26am
i really dont know what these numbers are but when i put on trade the spread is already included in stop and target those numbers mean absolutly nothing people hear during that time have made 150+ pips in realtime trades you need to go back to the blackboard and come up with something differenet because reality doesnt fit in to what you have just showed us
  • #1,023
  • Edited 5:48am Jan 2, 2008 5:38am | Edited 5:48am
ok you are talking about trades last week i or probably everyone didnt trade on christmas eve and definatley did not trade on christmas wed,thur and friday i was +80 if you are going to test it you should start probably today or at least by monday to get a better reading anyway i took a hit last night with cadjpy and gbpjpy lost a total of 50 the only one that won was the gbpchf and they were extremely oversold go figure
  • #1,024
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:47am Jan 2, 2008 5:47am
USDJPY getting ready for possible re-entry short once the stochs cross... slope direction is down and also p-sar is downwards trend.

Quoting harold4x
ok you are talking about trades last week i or probably everyone didnt trade on christmas eve and definatley did not trade on christmas wed,thur and friday i was +80 if you are going to test it you should start probably today or at least by monday to get a better reading
  • #1,025
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:51am Jan 2, 2008 5:51am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have been following this thread since mid December and I have attached an Excel file showing all trades for 6 currencies Harold is following. Below is the results since Dec 21st excluding spreads:

GBPUSD : +90 pips - 5 trades - 15 pips spread
GBPJPY : +17 pips - 4 trades - 16 pips spread
GBPCHF : +90 pips - 7 trades - 28 pips spread
EURJPY : +2 pips - 5 trades - 4 pips spread
EURCAD : -75 pips - 8 trades - 32 pips spread
CADJPY : +31 pips - 8 trades - 32 pips spread

Total: : +155 pips -127 pips spread

Net Result : +28 pips

I have used Oanda spreads which I believe the tightest spreads available in the market.

I know that this period was a holiday season and may not be indicative for future results.

I am also aware that Harold recommends discretion, but if you look at the spreadsheet, it is difficult to find a common point such as overbought/oversold stochastics to use discretion. For example; CADJPY long trades on 24/12 and 28/12 resulted in +30 pips while stoch was in overbought region and GBBCHF short trade on 21/12 resulted in -30 pips while stoch was not in oversold region.

I am not trying to judge this system because 10 days of forward testing is just meaningless, but these are the facts anyone who follows this thread should be aware of, IMO.


I would have to agree with Haroldfx, I find the trading turbulent for want of a better word.... I hate to say this but we need the big banks trading their billions of $ to make things more , or I should say LESS turbulent.
  • #1,026
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:57am Jan 2, 2008 5:57am
one thing i noticed is that ibfx started there trading from 1 amest so from the close of dec31 at 2pm till then there was no trading so when it picked up the math gets a little screwed up on those charts it will all correct it self in a day thats why i use my own platform for getting values any way a possible long om eurcad in 3 minutes
  • #1,027
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:00am Jan 2, 2008 6:00am
long eurcad
  • #1,028
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:13am Jan 2, 2008 6:13am
These numbers show forward test of your system without discretion (if you take all trades mechanically) between Dec 21st and Dec 31st, and it shows the net result if you include spreads. Since you said 30 pips profit target (except GBPJPY) I haven't included spreads. If you include spreads, then your target should be 33 - 35 pips and the results may differ (because sometimes the price just hits 30 pips and reverses and if you include spread, then your take profit level doesn't hit).

I indicated that this forward test was done during Christmas period so it may not be indicative, so I'll continue to forward test and announce the results. While doing this forward test, I am not applying any discretion, because the 10 days of forward test shows that the one you recommend (overbough/oversold stoch) is not a good filter, IMO, but as I said before, this 10 days of forward test may not be indicative due to its special time period.

Those numbers may mean absolutely nothing for you, but they are the results of the trades should someone take without discretion according to your system. With discretion, everyone will have different results and while someone may talk about +150 pips in 10 days, other may come up with -50 pips which makes the performance of the system undecided and uncomparable.

And as I said earlier, it is too early to tell something about your system performance.

Regards,



Quoting harold4x
i really dont know what these numbers are but when i put on trade the spread is already included in stop and target those numbers mean absolutly nothing people hear during that time have made 150+ pips in realtime trades you need to go back to the blackboard and come up with something differenet because reality doesnt fit in to what you have just showed us
  • #1,029
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:17am Jan 2, 2008 6:17am
I indicated that those 10 days may not be indicative for the future, therefore we cannot judge if this system is profitable or not (without discretion). So, we need longer forward test period and what I do is just announcing the forward test results, that's all.

Quoting lotv
I would have to agree with Haroldfx, I find the trading turbulent for want of a better word.... I hate to say this but we need the big banks trading their billions of $ to make things more , or I should say LESS turbulent.
  • #1,030
  • Edited 6:32am Jan 2, 2008 6:17am | Edited 6:32am
understood but who is trading on christmas eve or christmass day so the results are on wed, thur fri of last week 3 days and who said ob or os was a filter if i had only 2 signals and 1 or them was ob or os and the other wasnt and the ob or os one gave me a signal i would take it today was such a case gbpchf was os i didnt take it cause 2 other signals came that correlated but none the less you can continue to forward test all you like hope you make some money on the way i also mentioned a couple of days ago that i would not recommend taking signals blindly that a little discretion should be used its hard to backtest that also there were a couple of pairs you had down that didnt even have signals like gbpusd hasnt had one in a while or the eurcad
  • #1,031
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:34am Jan 2, 2008 6:34am
No matter what system is posted whether it be here or any other forums, you will always find those that will trade it blindly. Indicators are only indicative of the past and not the future, so discretion always plays an important part in anyone's trading. Its no wonder most EAs will fail....

Harold4x has pointed this out many times that discretion is required, and one must know the correlation of other pairs which will give one a hint as to where the pair will be going.
  • #1,032
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:50am Jan 2, 2008 6:50am
et well put but indicators are also indicative of future also thats why they are called indicators they indicate a possible direction and again its only a possible direction no matter what system you use even if you have no indicators on the chart(trading naked) they still use an indicator whether it is trendlines pinbars 123 s elliot waves etc they are all indicators indicating the possible direction dont let anyone fool you about that nothing is guarenteed anywhere
  • #1,033
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:55am Jan 2, 2008 6:55am
Indicators show something is developing and may indicate the future, not the past.

Quoting et_phonehome_2
Indicators are only indicative of the past and not the future,
  • #1,034
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:05am Jan 2, 2008 7:05am
lets proceed forward ok
  • #1,035
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:11am Jan 2, 2008 7:11am
Yes, I stand corrected. Though indicators are based upon past price action, it is indicative of the future. No matter what it may tell you, discretion is always required since things can change at any second.
  • #1,036
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:30am Jan 2, 2008 7:30am
heres the thing about these discussions it causes a little confusion and loss of focus i was in a gbpjpy take today and got stopped out by spike candle the next candle when it was closed signaled a reentry back into the gbpjpy but i was engulfed in talk about 3 days of trading during christmas time for forward test so from now on i will not post till after i have completed by own trading i will not be distracted anymore this is my living i am only here to help you dont need my help say the word and i am out of here this has been a misrable day not life threatning but it will not happen again i asure you of that
  • #1,037
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:52am Jan 2, 2008 7:52am
very great system Harold.

What you think about eur/jpy today?

regards,Felipe
  • #1,038
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:53am Jan 2, 2008 7:53am
well took another loss on eurcad - 80 for today i will recover this is not end of the world lost some focus should have gotten back 50 on gbpjpy didnt possible i might not have put on eurcad trade should be even but down 80 o well it happens wife wont eat tonight lol look you want to forward test backtest sidetest or whatever test you want put on demo trades like they are real make some heads up decisions and see how you do to post excell files from in reality 3 trading days not 10 like he said and its during christmas come on give me a break the guy is part of the 1kt club where people vouch that you have made at least 1000 trades if that is true why is he over here and not putting on his own trades? if he is experienced why is he testing 3 days of trading sorry for venting but thats why these threads die in the long run and i am not going to let it kill me i will leave first. i am very thick skinned can take a lot but this was ridiculous the clock is running for this thread
  • #1,039
  • Jan 2, 2008 8:47am Jan 2, 2008 8:47am
With patience and following Harold's rather simple trade rules - the 1hr chart indicators signaled two of the three shorts (GBPJPY, EURJPY) pairs for a nice profit. The other short for the 1hr, GBPCHF, although I didn't trade it, could have been a decent trade also. I didn't even mention the only long set-up, EURCAD, which hit 1.4557. Not bad for a strange day.
  • #1,040
  • Jan 2, 2008 8:54am Jan 2, 2008 8:54am
thats right rialto it has been a strange day anyone else have any comments about today
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