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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #56,781
  • Dec 31, 2007 2:28pm Dec 31, 2007 2:28pm
G/J on the 120min chart, if the current candle closes around 221.70 we might have a small bullish sign of life. Might be a good entry for a long, then again in this mess who knows, anybody else looking for entry
  • #56,782
  • Dec 31, 2007 3:18pm Dec 31, 2007 3:18pm
Praying a Happy and Prosperous New Year to all you guys. And to Aus we are so thankful for you have done and are doing to help teach us. Thanks Aus for sharing with us your knowledge. Not everyone is as generious as you, may it be returned to you a thousand times.
  • #56,783
  • Dec 31, 2007 3:49pm Dec 31, 2007 3:49pm
Well, obviously we are at a critical juncture on GJ. The daily uptend line from August has been violated (near 222.20), and we have closed well benath it...although the close was an early one. I have added another long @ 222.50. I know, many think this is insane. A big part of my trading strategy is based upon 50% fibs on daily and weekly time frames. I continue to cling to the belief that we will hit the 50% daily fib near 231.50 before 219.30 is violated. The last time the daily line was violated on 11/22 we rallied almost 800 pips in the next 3 days. I am sticking it out for some type of retracre/rally to the 229.50 area....protective stops @ 218.50.

BTW, I have been fooling myself about the equity/carry trade correlation that they talk about on CNBC. Dow is up almost 4% for the year...GJ closed last year above 233--down almost 1200 pips. That dosen't seem like positive correlation to me.
  • #56,784
  • Dec 31, 2007 3:56pm Dec 31, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, obviously we are at a critical juncture on GJ. The daily uptend line from August has been violated (near 222.20), and we have closed well benath it...although the close was an early one. I have added another long @ 222.50. I know, many think this is insane. A big part of my trading strategy is based upon 50% fibs on daily and weekly time frames. I continue to cling to the belief that we will hit the 50% daily fib near 231.50 before 219.30 is violated. The last time the daily line was violated on 11/22 we rallied almost 800 pips in the next 3 days. I am sticking it out for some type of retracre/rally to the 229.50 area....protective stops @ 218.50.

BTW, I have been fooling myself about the equity/carry trade correlation that they talk about on CNBC. Dow is up almost 4% for the year...GJ closed last year above 233--down almost 1200 pips. That dosen't seem like positive correlation to me.
i actually dont think that it is insane. it is still inline w/my wave count and i am looking for another run up then the bigger fall. anyway, HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL AND A VERY BLESSED AND PROSPEROUS ONE AT THAT. PLEASE DONT DRINK AND DRIVE AND STAY ALERT ON THOSE ROADS IF YOU ARE OUT. As for me, I will be bringing in the new year at church!!!
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #56,785
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:04pm Dec 31, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, obviously we are at a critical juncture on GJ. The daily uptend line from August has been violated (near 222.20), and we have closed well benath it...although the close was an early one. I have added another long @ 222.50. I know, many think this is insane. A big part of my trading strategy is based upon 50% fibs on daily and weekly time frames. I continue to cling to the belief that we will hit the 50% daily fib near 231.50 before 219.30 is violated. The last time the daily line was violated on 11/22 we rallied almost 800 pips in the next 3 days. I am sticking it out for some type of retracre/rally to the 229.50 area....protective stops @ 218.50.

BTW, I have been fooling myself about the equity/carry trade correlation that they talk about on CNBC. Dow is up almost 4% for the year...GJ closed last year above 233--down almost 1200 pips. That dosen't seem like positive correlation to me.

hey! happy new year... i was wondering when our favorite bull long term optimist was going to check in Maybe...and this is just a newbie taliking..but i was thinking 229.50 too but .....maybe we now have to consider the larger timeframe (monthly) which maybe trumped (trumps?) the lower timeframes???? i dont know.... just have to be careful and trade hat we see i guess.... I've yet to accurately pick a bottom or a top...one of my new years resolutions is simply not to try.... where is bernakke when you need him dang it! aren't they going to open up the liquidity store before markams predicitons of the end of the civilized world comes true! grrrrrrrrrr.... anyway.... the correlation is supposedly only 90% from what i understand and is not 100% but you are right it seems to be a no correlation this year.... check this out...there is one index that is down.... the russel index is DOWN for the year..... anyway.... are you consideringany other caryy candidates this year i was looking at aud/gdp???? your thoughts?
  • #56,786
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:15pm Dec 31, 2007 4:15pm
Ok Bulls you can come out now...hehe
I think we'll see some retracement also, considering the next few weeks lots and lots of mutual fund money needs to be reallocated into equities. Pair that with Bernakee cutting funds and we may have a Jan. rally..........assuming gbp/jpy plays along .................
I'm long @ 221.70
  • #56,787
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:32pm Dec 31, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting Aaron FL
G/J on the 120min chart, if the current candle closes around 221.70 we might have a small bullish sign of life. Might be a good entry for a long, then again in this mess who knows, anybody else looking for entry
As for me Aaron, going SHORT on GJ is my MAIN preference as I can 'see' on the Monthly Chart, there is a very STRONG BEARISH sign.

The last time I carried the trade, 1345 pips handsomely collected. Cannot stand the negative swap, so i decided to close the post . Here's the SS:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2159/...9c7ef1da_o.jpg

This year I'm looking foward to trade with a broker which offer a FREE SWAP Acc...:

Happy PIPing everbody and all the best for upcoming trade, especially on GJ.

Peace!
  • #56,788
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:46pm Dec 31, 2007 4:46pm
are we due a retrace soon or is markam's 210-by years' end prediction coming into play?
  • #56,789
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:50pm Dec 31, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting pipdiddy
are we due a retrace soon or is markam's 210-by years' end prediction coming into play?
As for me, makam's seemingly is on the 'right' track, well...sooner or later i guess.

Peace!
  • #56,790
  • Dec 31, 2007 5:01pm Dec 31, 2007 5:01pm
who stole all the green candles..... this was the only one i could find!

http://images-partners-tbn.google.co...iki/candle.jpg


  • #56,791
  • Dec 31, 2007 5:45pm Dec 31, 2007 5:45pm
JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY TO POP THE CHAMPAGNE............. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!!
Attached Image
  • #56,792
  • Dec 31, 2007 7:13pm Dec 31, 2007 7:13pm
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE

ANOTHER BLAST OF PIPS TO COME IN THE NEW YEAR

LOOK OUT FOR MY NEW PIP STASH PROJECT
  • #56,793
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:28pm Dec 31, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting moneymagnet
i actually dont think that it is insane. it is still inline w/my wave count and i am looking for another run up then the bigger fall. anyway, HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL AND A VERY BLESSED AND PROSPEROUS ONE AT THAT. PLEASE DONT DRINK AND DRIVE AND STAY ALERT ON THOSE ROADS IF YOU ARE OUT. As for me, I will be bringing in the new year at church!!!
MM, I am leaving right now for our new year's party at church!! I pray you will be blessed in all that you do!!! Happy new year.... and come on 229.50!
  • #56,794
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:38pm Dec 31, 2007 9:38pm
Quoting dagoods
hey! happy new year... i was wondering when our favorite bull long term optimist was going to check in Maybe...and this is just a newbie taliking..but i was thinking 229.50 too but .....maybe we now have to consider the larger timeframe (monthly) which maybe trumped (trumps?) the lower timeframes???? i dont know.... just have to be careful and trade hat we see i guess.... I've yet to accurately pick a bottom or a top...one of my new years resolutions is simply not to try.... where is bernakke when you need him dang it! aren't they going to open up the liquidity store before markams predicitons of the end of the civilized world comes true! grrrrrrrrrr.... anyway.... the correlation is supposedly only 90% from what i understand and is not 100% but you are right it seems to be a no correlation this year.... check this out...there is one index that is down.... the russel index is DOWN for the year..... anyway.... are you consideringany other caryy candidates this year i was looking at aud/gdp???? your thoughts?
Well, I'm not sure I am a looong term optimist..I believe just about everything Markum has said about the US and its economic outlook. I just believe it will take a lot longer to come about (warlords and all of that!) The US will not go down without a fight, and we are still an incredibley wealthy nation with a lot of cards to play before the end comes. I think the Fed will pull out every trick in the book to keep the Dow propped up...so I guess I am bullish on a 3-5 year time horizion. As for other pairs, I am researching CHF/JPY as a potential carry trade---not as volitale as GJ but seems to follow the equity markets very closely...but I have only really looked at 2 years worth of data. I will let you know if I think it is worth trading (as it relates to equities). I hope you New Year is Blessed and all your dreams come true (well, the good ones, anyway!).
  • #56,795
  • Dec 31, 2007 11:10pm Dec 31, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting markam
, so I am now just a long-term trader, based upon fundamentals. I just closed my long-term shorts, and I am going to see what the news and markets tell me in the new year.
Hi markam,

Could you share with us your strategies and techniques and also money management on long term trading.. in a new thread if possible . t.Q

Happy new year 2008.....
  • #56,796
  • Dec 31, 2007 11:46pm Dec 31, 2007 11:46pm
Happy New Years to all !!!!!!!!!!
  • #56,797
  • Jan 1, 2008 10:53am Jan 1, 2008 10:53am
Happy New Year everyone!!!
  • #56,798
  • Jan 1, 2008 4:41pm Jan 1, 2008 4:41pm
Happy New Year For all.
I hope all of you success and enough PIPs...

We see , As suggested , the market went down to 219 as we predicted before . I am sure in few days we will see more down because USA growth was lower than forecast and it means JPY will raise and gain .... Also , GBP is still going to fall. It should at last hit 1.6 this month and it means we may see 180 on GJ... I recommend if you have shorts , keep it open under 225 area close today. this resistance will change soon and we will set it to 223 area. If you want to join the bearish move wait for daily low under 223 tomorrow. Then I think at the highest level of difference Join
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #56,799
  • Jan 1, 2008 4:48pm Jan 1, 2008 4:48pm
Quoting Pyramid
Happy New Year For all.
I hope all of you success and enough PIPs...

We see , As suggested , the market went down to 219 as we predicted before . I am sure in few days we will see more down because USA growth was lower than forecast and it means JPY will raise and gain .... Also , GBP is still going to fall. It should at last hit 1.6 this month and it means we may see 180 on GJ... I recommend if you have shorts , keep it open under 225 area close today. this resistance will change soon and we will set it to 223 area. If you want to join the bearish move wait for daily low under 223 tomorrow. Then I think at the highest level of difference Join
On the weekly chart....
Tripple bottom between 221.05 and 221.34. Also if the tripple bottom breaks then the weekly head and shoulders NL will be broken and it is possible there will be a very good size fall. I will be watching for a break below 221.05-221.90 for a sell or a bounce off of Fridays lo to buy the retrace.
  • #56,800
  • Jan 1, 2008 4:55pm Jan 1, 2008 4:55pm
Look as though it's already starting "to bounce"

Quoting PipChick
On the weekly chart....
Tripple bottom between 221.05 and 221.34. Also if the tripple bottom breaks then the weekly head and shoulders NL will be broken and it is possible there will be a very good size fall. I will be watching for a break below 221.05-221.90 for a sell or a bounce off of Fridays lo to buy the retrace.
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