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EURUSD forecast & Chaos theory

  • #21
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:53am Dec 27, 2007 5:53am
Quoting matebisi
I need someone good out there to tell what to expect of this pair in 5 hours time to 01.30pm(GMT)
Nobody knows the future... but forecasting smtimes really works.
IMO we should expect some good new from
Core Durable Goods Orders there are some reasons for that,
plus eur/usd is right at the very good resistance(1.4520). And though the news might help us to get back to 1.4420.
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #22
  • Dec 27, 2007 8:33am Dec 27, 2007 8:33am
aleksey, do mind sharing some tidbits about where you will enter and on which direction once you get back from your holiday?

I'm really excited about this method, and now market is very boring. So would be nice if you can share something to keep us thinking until new year. Thanks
  • #23
  • Edited Dec 28, 2007 3:24am Dec 27, 2007 1:15pm | Edited Dec 28, 2007 3:24am
Quoting greentunnel
aleksey, do mind sharing some tidbits about where you will enter and on which direction once you get back from your holiday?

I'm really excited about this method, and now market is very boring. So would be nice if you can share something to keep us thinking until new year. Thanks
We have good opportunity to seek out a convenient level to initiate a short-term short position now. I assume that after short-term fall (for some future days) we will be able to jump on a long-term up-trend so I am waiting for it.
  • #24
  • Edited 1:50pm Dec 28, 2007 3:58am | Edited 1:50pm
Following your requests I go back to the thread "The basket of Hybrids; 4 Pairs" so please watch the 28-pair hybrid trading.
  • #25
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:18am Dec 30, 2007 8:18am
We have the stabile up-trend on monthly time-frame, so I will stick to a bull camp for 2008 year.
Attached Image
  • #26
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:11am Dec 30, 2007 10:11am
Quoting Aleksey
To confirm my words I adduce percents of profitable trades given of my system on the history of 20 last years
among USD-contained pairs: best is EURUSD - 86%, worst is USDZAR - 76%.

Certainly, results depend on a system but major pairs will always be most forecastable because of their huge streams of money.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Aleksey,

What? The Euro wasn't introduced until 1998/1999. How can you include the EUR in a system that backtests the last 20 years??? And don't tell me that you are using an old European currency (Mark/Franc) to reconstruct the Euro synthetically and base you testing on that. If so, then your EUR/USD 86% figure is completely unreliable and should not be taken seriously at all!

I'm not even sure that most reconstructed EUR data goes back that far. Unless you constructed it yourself. Something does not seem right here. Busted!

rudenstein
  • #27
  • Dec 30, 2007 11:37am Dec 30, 2007 11:37am
Quoting rudenstein
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Aleksey,

What? The Euro wasn't introduced until 1998/1999. How can you include the EUR in a system that backtests the last 20 years??? And don't tell me that you are using an old European currency (Mark/Franc) to reconstruct the Euro synthetically and base you testing on that. If so, then your EUR/USD 86% figure is completely unreliable and should not be taken seriously at all!

I'm not even sure that most reconstructed EUR data goes back that far. Unless you constructed it yourself. Something does not seem right here. Busted!

rudenstein
It is a good question. Date are eyes and ears of my system. To reconstruct EURUSD data (from 1985 year) I spent some months. It is very important for me, especially for weekly and monthly analysis. Yes it is syntetic data but they excellent work. Figure 86% was taken on the basis their date and it is a model parameter as well as any system results and its syntetic date so all noted is truth but only for my market model.
  • #28
  • Dec 30, 2007 11:59am Dec 30, 2007 11:59am
Quoting Aleksey
We have the stabile up-trend on monthly time-frame, so I will stick to a bull camp for 2008 year.

I agree, although the strengthing of the USD was caused by an increase in interest rates in 2005 (unlikely to occur in 08, but not out of the question considering inflationary figures). Don't forget the fundamentals!

rudenstein
  • #29
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:03pm Dec 30, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting Aleksey
It is a good question. Date are eyes and ears of my system. To reconstruct EURUSD data (from 1985 year) I spent some months. It is very important for me, especially for weekly and monthly analysis. Yes it is syntetic data but they excellent work. Figure 86% was taken on the basis their date and it is a model parameter as well as any system results and its syntetic date so all noted is truth but only for my market model.
It could be a good indicator, but I'd be sceptical. Did you test on only pure 1999 - 2007 data? What was the result?

Btw, have you read Wolfram's "A New Kind of Science"?

rudenstein
  • #30
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:04pm Dec 30, 2007 12:04pm
i have access to a datafeed where i can see for some more time than banks or most brokers allow.

did you know where it end friday?
1.4735, not 1.4711 (a resistance point) where most brokers showed.

this is bad for usd.
  • #31
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:13pm Dec 30, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting rudenstein
I agree, although the strengthing of the USD was caused by an increase in interest rates in 2005 (unlikely to occur in 08, but not out of the question considering inflationary figures). Don't forget the fundamentals!

rudenstein
If the situation changes I will immediately react. Will see.
  • #32
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:20pm Dec 30, 2007 12:20pm
Quoting acidguy
i have access to a datafeed where i can see for some more time than banks or most brokers allow.

did you know where it end friday?
1.4735, not 1.4711 (a resistance point) where most brokers showed.

this is bad for usd.
Currently I see the course of EURUSD on 1.4726.
  • #33
  • Edited 1:01pm Dec 30, 2007 12:38pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting rudenstein
It could be a good indicator, but I'd be sceptical. Did you test on only pure 1999 - 2007 data? What was the result?

Btw, have you read Wolfram's "A New Kind of Science"?

rudenstein
Please see results of trading in EURUSD from 29.12.05 to 24.12.07 without any margin.
No, I did not read.
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  • #34
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:54pm Dec 30, 2007 2:54pm
acidguy, what do you mean?
  • #35
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:55pm Dec 30, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting Aleksey
Please see results of trading in EURUSD from 29.12.05 to 24.12.07 without any margin.
No, I did not read.

Very good! What kind of charting software is that?
  • #36
  • Edited Dec 31, 2007 3:32am Dec 30, 2007 3:03pm | Edited Dec 31, 2007 3:32am
Quoting rudenstein
Very good! What kind of charting software is that?
That is a Excel chart. I made it on the basis of last 45 trades.
  • #37
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:09pm Dec 30, 2007 3:09pm
lol, you could have an account on euros.
long eur/usd, put a big risk trade and never close it, and i mean never.

this pair is not going to come back not matter what analyst says. i just see the usa debt clock, goverment liabilities and scare myself.
maybe usa with another curency could come back but usd never will come back again.

is scary cause all my assets are in $. cause latin america is pegged but what can i do. China is destroying USD.
  • #38
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:15pm Dec 30, 2007 3:15pm
The Bolivar is pegged against the USD? I had no idea. But you are right, the relationship is obviously not caused by free market forces.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined
  • #39
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:25pm Dec 30, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting rudenstein
The Bolivar is pegged against the USD? I had no idea. But you are right, the relationship is obviously not caused by free market forces.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined

yeah, look what we have. a goverment who changed almost all reserves into euros when eu was about 1.38.

and the goverment sell us just $. not freely, throught cadivi where they ask you for tons of papers before giving away USD.

the goverment even is thinking in devaluing the bolivar again this next year while the world is revaluing, inflation here is rocking.

dont bellieve what some media says. Hugo Chavez is a monkey!.
  • #40
  • Dec 30, 2007 4:22pm Dec 30, 2007 4:22pm
why does china want to detroy dollars? the majority of his reserves were and still are USD.

Quoting acidguy
is scary cause all my assets are in $. cause latin america is pegged but what can i do. China is destroying USD.
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