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Canadian Jobs Report / Labour Force Survey

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 4, 2007 8:27pm Jan 4, 2007 8:27pm
I didn't have a lot of time to do a ton of analysis tonight, but I did collect some data that might be of interest. Here are the recent releases for number of jobs created:

Release DateFor MonthActual Expected
12/1/2006November-0622,000 12,000
11/3/2006October-0651,000 18,000
10/6/2006September-0616,00017,500
9/8/2006August-06-16,000 20,000
8/4/2006July-06 -5,500 25,000
7/7/2006June-06 -4,600 10,000
6/9/2006May-06 97,000 20,000
5/5/2006April-06 22,000 15,000

And attached I have a chart that visually shows the difference between expected and actual. I got this data from an Ikon econ calendar and the CAD stats web page, links below:

http://67.29.176.150/news/nnews/CalendarOfTheWeek.asp?

http://www.statcan.ca/menu-en.htm
Attached Image
  • #2
  • Jan 4, 2007 10:01pm Jan 4, 2007 10:01pm
Quoting robbooker
I didn't have a lot of time to do a ton of analysis tonight, but I did collect some data that might be of interest. Here are the recent releases for number of jobs created:

Release Date For Month Actual Expected
12/1/2006 November-06 22,000 12,000
11/3/2006 October-06 51,000 18,000
10/6/2006 September-06 16,000 17,500
9/8/2006 August-06 -16,000 20,000
8/4/2006 July-06 -5,500 25,000
7/7/2006 June-06 -4,600 10,000
6/9/2006 May-06 97,000 20,000
5/5/2006 April-06 22,000 15,000

And attached I have a chart that visually shows the difference between expected and actual. I got this data from an Ikon econ calendar and the CAD stats web page, links below:

http://67.29.176.150/news/nnews/CalendarOfTheWeek.asp?

http://www.statcan.ca/menu-en.htm
This is great Rob. Thanks again for all of this. It is valuable.
I trade both the CAD employment, and the NFP and this the best Friday each month.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #3
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:08am Jan 5, 2007 6:08am
whoa, strong employement out of the canadians!
Relax and be happy.
  • #4
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:17am Jan 5, 2007 6:17am
Quoting merlin
whoa, strong employement out of the canadians!
Merlin u make any pips off this guy?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #5
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:20am Jan 5, 2007 6:20am
made a few
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:21am Jan 5, 2007 6:21am
Nice!!!

I have +30 locked in with a trail stop, maybe I'll get a bit more.


DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #7
  • Jan 5, 2007 6:59am Jan 5, 2007 6:59am
62,000 jobs vs. 16,500 expected (which you already know by now). And this type of difference between actual and expected really can cause a move.

Keep in mind, too, that:

1. The USD/CAD has been trending upward for a very long time. This report is enough to give it a correction, but might not be enough to end the trend completely. We'll see, of course, with the NFP later today!

2. The CAD/JPY has been trending lower -- badly, in fact. Same as above. This pair can be wild. It's battling with the round number 100.00 right now - and this report helped to "save" it a bit from going under. Have we bottomed out on this pair for now?

3. The EUR/CAD was already starting to flop around and the upward trend was losing some momentum, or at least getting sloppy. This one might fall as far as 1.5330 today (it's trading at 1.5362 right now) as part of a bigger picture correction.
  • #8
  • Jan 6, 2007 6:38am Jan 6, 2007 6:38am
Quoting robbooker
62,000 jobs vs. 16,500 expected (which you already know by now). And this type of difference between actual and expected really can cause a move.

Keep in mind, too, that:

1. The USD/CAD has been trending upward for a very long time. This report is enough to give it a correction, but might not be enough to end the trend completely. We'll see, of course, with the NFP later today!

2. The CAD/JPY has been trending lower -- badly, in fact. Same as above. This pair can be wild. It's battling with the round number 100.00 right now - and this report helped to "save" it a bit from going under. Have we bottomed out on this pair for now?

3. The EUR/CAD was already starting to flop around and the upward trend was losing some momentum, or at least getting sloppy. This one might fall as far as 1.5330 today (it's trading at 1.5362 right now) as part of a bigger picture correction.

Rob,

I chose to trade the EUR/CAD in this report and it proved to be a good choice.

I have been enjoying your posts. It is nice to get the insight of a professional. You have already taught me some things.

Thanks.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #9
  • Jan 6, 2007 7:01am Jan 6, 2007 7:01am
I just wanted to explain one reason I thought the EURCAD could fall further to the 1.5330 level.

The chart is attached. The top of the channel was a good target. The next target, that I'm sorry I didn't talk about (mainly because I didn't think it would fall THAT far) was the first fibble, which is the top middle dotted line in the channel, and is simply a fib retracement of the width of the channel itself.

Here is the chart.
Attached Image
  • #10
  • Last Post: Jan 6, 2007 7:05am Jan 6, 2007 7:05am
I also talked about whether the CAD jobs report would be enough to start a correction of the trend that had been so strong upward. Well, the NFP reaction tried to fight back but so far it's losing.
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