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SRDC Episode II

  • #1,981
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:46pm Jan 5, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting accrete
Hi gang, just finished uploading one of the latest TS visits by Orange, is is of Jan 3rd and on the Audio Visual Files page link at the resource page.

Have a great weekend,
Thom
Accrete,

Thanks for the audio files. It is really beneficial for us who couldn't make it to TS. Also a big thank you to OR and all the gang in TS a.k.a Pipsville.

Guken
  • #1,982
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:49pm Jan 5, 2007 8:49pm
Bill,

We all support your decision on cracking down on TeamSpeak. This has been a great addition to this forum and alot of people are learning from each other which makes this a great thread. Keep up the great work.
  • #1,983
  • Jan 5, 2007 9:48pm Jan 5, 2007 9:48pm
After Friday's big move down I have adjusted my hourly channel. This is a 15 min chart with the hourly channel. I based my channel on a trendline I drew using the last 6 candles from Jan 3 (circled area). I've seen OrangeRoshan draw his channels using the same method. This trendline seems to run right through the middle of the price action for the past 2 days. I established this trendline as my median and drew my channel so the daily lows were touching the channel. I intentionally did not use the highs of Jan 3 because I believe it makes the channel too wide and too steep. Closing price for Friday is resting just below the median. That's were we like to see the closing price for the day close to the median. Commets and feedback is always appreciated.
Attached Image
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #1,984
  • Jan 5, 2007 9:51pm Jan 5, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting accrete
Greetings mccullek and welcome to the factory. You picked a great place to hang out for sure! I might also suggest (even though you have "years" of experince, reading James16 and FijiTrader threads as they are both coming from a similar background as yourself trading futures. They go into some FX related thoughts that are outside the specific focus of the SRDC threads and very helpful. I state this not to take away anything in Orange's great threads, SRDC model rocks!

Best wishes on your FX adventure.
: ) Thom
I'm very well agreed with you Thom. It does helps to see things at bigger picture . Just like golf, during T-off we pull some grass to air to see where the wind is blowing, when at the green, we put our head on the ground just to measure the angle...(i never play golf..)

Anyway, thanks a million Thom for the Audio. You are the man.

Thanks again,
shah
Shah For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.....
  • #1,985
  • Jan 5, 2007 10:42pm Jan 5, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting jest1081
Thanks Haiqu, for now i guess i'll do it the manual way
Not any longer. See SRDC I thread. You're welcome.

Rob
  • #1,986
  • Jan 5, 2007 10:54pm Jan 5, 2007 10:54pm
Rob, thanks. From your post in SRDC1 i can tell that SR4C has been a pipastic success for you..or should i say 'howling'. hehe. Merry Pippin! Just for the benefir of everyone i will post the indicator here too. Enjoy SR4C!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 HiLoH4.mq4   2 KB | 656 downloads
  • #1,987
  • Jan 5, 2007 11:11pm Jan 5, 2007 11:11pm
Quoting investingjeff

Practice, Practice, Practice -- a good way to practice is to go back in MT4 a couple of months and situate your chart so you see the end of a day, but not the beginning of the next. Draw your best guess channels, trendlines, fibos then (make sure autoscroll is off in chart properties) click the F12 button to advance one bar at a time. Write down where you would execute your trade, take profits, etc. And see if your channels, trendlines are valid. YOU WILL NOT GET IT PERFECT! YOU DO NOT NEED TO GET IT PERFECT! YOU JUST NEED TO BE MORE RIGHT THAN WRONG, and experience will takeover with time and effort!

Cheers,
Jeff
In fact, you only need to be right more than 50% of the time. AS LONG AS YOU'RE NEVER WRONG ON THE IMPORTANT THINGS!

Case in point: I closed everything before the NFP yesterday, as a safety precaution. I could have made 150 pips at $14.00 a pip, but if it had gone wrong I would have lost my shirt. So I played safe, took some losses and closed my positions down.

But THEN I made the mistake of assuming a retrace (because of the money coming back out of the carry trade) and went long on Cable at 1.9315 but it dropped again. My cash is now tied up until Cable comes back up, if ever.

It's a damned tough game, only 5% will survive it and profit. Plan to be in the top 1% and you MIGHT make money.

Rob
  • #1,988
  • Edited 11:52pm Jan 5, 2007 11:21pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting carmel
Did I draw mine incorrectly or has the GBP/USD just gone south out of the channel???
That's the trouble with channels, they only show the probable future outcome under normal trading conditions. Lately I've had to redraw mine almost daily.

There were some weird circumstances yesterday, including it being the end of the first week of 2007's trading, unusual activity during the Asian session, the NFP announcement being backwards to what was expected, the lack of retrace from the low 9300's and so on. Everything said LONG but it wasn't to be. Even being really cautious I lost badly on three different accounts.

Some days you just can't put a trade in the right direction. I certainly hope you never experience that, it's not fun.

Rob
  • #1,989
  • Jan 5, 2007 11:32pm Jan 5, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting jest1081
Rob, thanks. From your post in SRDC1 i can tell that SR4C has been a pipastic success for you..or should i say 'howling'. hehe. Merry Pippin! Just for the benefir of everyone i will post the indicator here too. Enjoy SR4C!
Thanks jest. I would have preferred it to stay in SRDC I forum, since the rules of usage that are posted with it are part of the package. Note to those who are downloading, read the instructions too!

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=59&pp=15

Rob
  • #1,990
  • Jan 6, 2007 3:52am Jan 6, 2007 3:52am
[quote=4rex]Bill,

I have been involved with TeamSpeak since its beginning and have witnessed the caring and corteous demeanor that you and Glenn bring to this exceptional site. I have no doubt that any action taken by either one of you has the best interest of the group in mind. Thus I fully support your decision to get rid of a couple of bad apples.


Have a great weekend,
C u on Sunday[/QUOTE


Well spoken 4rex. I'd like to second those sentiments.

Regards,
  • #1,991
  • Jan 6, 2007 4:22am Jan 6, 2007 4:22am
Quoting preacher165
well bill, i was not there, but from what i heard, you had 100% support of the others in the room for the ban. As the srdc Team Speak becomes more popular, we are going to have to tighten down even more on the rules. Especially in the area of SRDC traders...i am trying to become creative and think of a way to only let people in who are

1. Members of this thread and post
2. Who have read and studied the manuals.

What about a test before receiving a password or something. I don't know, what we do not want are free loaders, people who come in, not wanting to learn but just jumping on our trades. anyway, with growth comes growing pains, and we saw the first of those today.

good job today bill
Glen, Bill,

As you and many others recognise, Team speak is at the point, or fast approaching it, where you will have to come up with some mechanism to ensure the sincerity of those who wish to participate. I'm in agreement that members, at the very least, should also be members of this thread, unless they are introduced via other routes e.g. Roshan.



I'm not too sure about a test, as such, but have you considered implementing some kind of probationary period for new users? During this time new users would not be allowed to either talk or text within Teamspeak. (Perhaps you could automatically switch such privileges on and off through the administration function in Teamspeak? ) However, they may ask questions within Forex Factory, or possibly, as was suggested earlier, through an appointed mentor of sorts.

Ultimately, using this approach, you still cannot stop people jumping on trades, but you will hopefully filter out members who are not willing to stay the course, and weed out those who have come with malicious intent.


Initially, I would suggest a period of at least 4 weeks from the time of formal application, which should be enough time to allow new users to read and digest most of the material on offer. In fact, perhaps new users would not be allowed into Teamspeak for the first 2 weeks of this period?

The probationary period, password controlled as you suggest, would not only ensure the sincerity of new members, it would also go someway towards protecting Forex newbies.

Regards,
  • #1,992
  • Jan 6, 2007 6:07am Jan 6, 2007 6:07am
Quoting downunderdave40
After Friday's big move down I have adjusted my hourly channel. This is a 15 min chart with the hourly channel. I based my channel on a trendline I drew using the last 6 candles from Jan 3 (circled area). I've seen OrangeRoshan draw his channels using the same method. This trendline seems to run right through the middle of the price action for the past 2 days. I established this trendline as my median and drew my channel so the daily lows were touching the channel. I intentionally did not use the highs of Jan 3 because I believe it makes the channel too wide and too steep. Closing price for Friday is resting just below the median. That's were we like to see the closing price for the day close to the median. Commets and feedback is always appreciated.
Looks fine to me, Dave. There was a major disturbance in the force on Jan 3rd (see the Gold charts, they show it best) and mine are all starting at 1500GMT on Jan 3rd now.

Someone out there is also trying real hard to make the USD look good, judging by the $600M dumped during the NFP anouncement. I'm also curious how it always goes off right on 0830EST as well, before the damned thing is read out. Are we playing against currency manipulators here? Just a thought.

The natural tendency seen after the first $305M dump was for all currencies to rise again. When it did, the Big Dogs fought it for a while, then organized another $290M dump an hour after the first. We definitely felt the dark side with that one.

I'd expect the market to gap upwards Monday, as it did after New Year, but since the US has a Sunday night session maybe it will all turn south again by the time I get home from work.

Rob (in sunny Melbourne, home of the umbrella industry)
  • #1,993
  • Jan 6, 2007 6:35am Jan 6, 2007 6:35am
Quoting haiqu
In fact, you only need to be right more than 50% of the time. AS LONG AS YOU'RE NEVER WRONG ON THE IMPORTANT THINGS!

Case in point: I closed everything before the NFP yesterday, as a safety precaution. I could have made 150 pips at $14.00 a pip, but if it had gone wrong I would have lost my shirt. So I played safe, took some losses and closed my positions down.

But THEN I made the mistake of assuming a retrace (because of the money coming back out of the carry trade) and went long on Cable at 1.9315 but it dropped again. My cash is now tied up until Cable comes back up, if ever.

It's a damned tough game, only 5% will survive it and profit. Plan to be in the top 1% and you MIGHT make money.

Rob
Good post Rob,
I think many of us assumed that we would have a retracement off the non farm news and I for one made the same long trade as did many in the TS room. The only thing that saved me was hedging when it went the other way. In hindsight I think that because the trend was already a strong bear and the news was so positive for the USD, there was not the retracement that we normally see in this situation. I do know that OrangeRoshan was in a short position at news time and continued in that position until it completed the run, amazing! I think we will get there in time. Thank you for sharing your experience. It is good to see smarter people than me read the situation the same.

Thanks,
Traderbill
  • #1,994
  • Jan 6, 2007 7:06am Jan 6, 2007 7:06am
Quoting Traderbill07
Good post Rob,
I think many of us assumed that we would have a retracement off the non farm news and I for one made the same long trade as did many in the TS room. The only thing that saved me was hedging when it went the other way. In hindsight I think that because the trend was already a strong bear and the news was so positive for the USD, there was not the retracement that we normally see in this situation. I do know that OrangeRoshan was in a short position at news time and continued in that position until it completed the run, amazing! I think we will get there in time. Thank you for sharing your experience. It is good to see smarter people than me read the situation the same.

Thanks,
Traderbill
Hey Bill,

Couldn't hedge, I had tied up my capital to the limit already. In fact I had to dump a parallel trade on the Aussie to maintain my margin sufficiently to cope with the downturn. One of my accounts (at 200:1 leverage) got stopped out by the broker's automatic program, for a loss of about $300.00 hard cash.

This is the trouble with being poor. You try to get out, but the game is so tough it just drags you down again. As for being smarter, there's a saying: "If I'm so smart, why ain't I rich?" I'm as dumb as a post, mate.

Maybe next year will be different, but I don't see myself being able to judge the market anywhere near as well as OrangeRoshan just yet. His 23 years of practical knowledge shows through all the time. Things which would baffle me and you are such second nature to him, he has trouble explaining them to us.

I'm in a trading competition this month. The starting day, the broker forgot to enable my account. By the time he got his act together I had to go to bed. The next night the leader had already turned $5000 in imaginary funds into $13,400. It was Jan 2nd and the rise was a no-brainer, you only had to look at the Tuesday trading gap. Just can't win sometimes.

Rob
  • #1,995
  • Jan 6, 2007 7:18am Jan 6, 2007 7:18am
Quoting haiqu
Hey Bill,

Couldn't hedge, I had tied up my capital to the limit already. In fact I had to dump a parallel trade on the Aussie to maintain my margin sufficiently to cope with the downturn. One of my accounts (at 200:1 leverage) got stopped out by the broker's automatic program, for a loss of about $300.00 hard cash.

This is the trouble with being poor. You try to get out, but the game is so tough it just drags you down again. As for being smarter, there's a saying: "If I'm so smart, why ain't I rich?" I'm as dumb as a post, mate.

Maybe next year will be different, but I don't see myself being able to judge the market anywhere near as well as OrangeRoshan just yet. His 23 years of practical knowledge shows through all the time. Things which would baffle me and you are such second nature to him, he has trouble explaining them to us.

I'm in a trading competition this month. The starting day, the broker forgot to enable my account. By the time he got his act together I had to go to bed. The next night the leader had already turned $5000 in imaginary funds into $13,400. It was Jan 2nd and the rise was a no-brainer, you only had to look at the Tuesday trading gap. Just can't win sometimes.

Rob
LOL, i havent benn in the market for 23years, and I dont have trouble explaining to anyone. Maybe, many have trouble understanding me.

Have patience my young padawan. Have patience, those who seek knowledge, will suceed.
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,996
  • Edited 8:07am Jan 6, 2007 7:46am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting OrangeRoshan
LOL, i havent benn in the market for 23years, and I dont have trouble explaining to anyone. Maybe, many have trouble understanding me.

Have patience my young padawan. Have patience, those who seek knowledge, will suceed.
Perhaps my memory of the message in which you stated this is faded. As for the pedantics of whether you have trouble explaining vs. my trouble understanding, I have met many gurus in my lifetime and eventually found a preference for plain English over riddles.

Thank you for the useful information provided, but as you will see from my last message in the SRDC I forum, I will no longer be participating here. This is a position of personal integrity and is not negotiable.

I wish you and all here well.

Rob

Postscript: This old Jedi is indeed becoming forgetful. It was 14 years. Ref: SRDC post 364.
  • #1,997
  • Jan 6, 2007 8:47am Jan 6, 2007 8:47am
OrangeRoshan,


Thank you for the two new threads in the SRDC area. For those who have yet to see them, we have a new thread for posts and discussion of EA's and one for the same with indicators. I think it was a great move and will remove some clutter from the threads and let them get back to the intended message. I think all would have to agree that we have been filling the threads with information not associated with learning SRDC. I include myself in that comment. I would also like to see us return to posting 400 x 400 charts instead of the 600 x 600 that currently line these pages. In addition it is my very humble opinion that way too many charts are being posted but that is for you to decide.

Thanks for the new threads,
Traderbill
  • #1,998
  • Jan 6, 2007 10:10am Jan 6, 2007 10:10am
I wish I can do this pretrading and no postrading

http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/5...7110729hw4.png
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #1,999
  • Jan 6, 2007 10:45am Jan 6, 2007 10:45am
My trading NFP was short and fortuanately profitable but only a few pips. I had closed all my positions well before news and was happy to have grabbed 23 pips in GbpUsd. Then on the news release i waited for the big candle to close and waited for a 5m inside bar to form and close and saw that take place on the EurUsd pair so got in short at 1.3003...but then as we know it just sat there! LOL after nearly four hours of waiting i got out with +11 pips after it retraced back up from the 1.2980 ish bounce.

Looking at what took place on my IBFX chart i din't dare get into the GBP after news as there was/is a large gap in the first 5m candle. Though my VT and AccuCharts looked ok.

Pretty mellow NFP after all the rucas over news speculation? It seems like the big boys new what was going to happen and much was already priced into the market by news release.

: ) Thom
  • #2,000
  • Jan 6, 2007 10:45am Jan 6, 2007 10:45am
http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/4...7114737vg3.png

Sorry Bill but 400x400 is useless. I donīt want to use lenses
I prefer 600x600
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
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