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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #56,401
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:43pm Dec 27, 2007 3:43pm
U/j is setting up for another drop here soon. That adds a little flavor to the mix. With the gbp/usd in a short lived uptrend and the U/J in a long term downtrend....which one will prevail? Obviously the longer term downtrend. Once this short lived gbp/usd rally ends, that will lead us to the lower levels.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #56,402
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:17pm Dec 27, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting quecee5
Yeah, that's what I was thinking to, I think I mentioned that ealier to someone on the thread that GU would be the pair to lift GJ up a bit but not sure by how much though.
Thanks! That would be me. See my response @ #56376.
  • #56,403
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:29pm Dec 27, 2007 4:29pm
We may get proper direction only after the JPY news events today i.e in 1 hr
  • #56,404
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:37pm Dec 27, 2007 4:37pm
[quote=quecee5;1774647]
Quoting FX-Petra

Thats the best explanation I've heard so far. . .
I was wondering if anyone esle was watching these pairs and saw something different.

Also, I agree if GU makes a run at 2.000/2.0100 while UJ holds steady I can see GJ going a bit higher maybe 229 but not much more than that unless the fall we are seeing in UJ is a false break which is possible. Could be that the stock market is bringing it down.

One thing I do know is UJ usually is the leader in carry trades trends so if it starts to fall typically we'll see other carry's follow, followed by majors. . .
queece,
I usually don't trade UJ, but that daily chart looks tempting. I'm thinking a short here, another @ 114.50, W/ protective stops above 115---looking for the bottom of that daily channel. From a risk/reward standpoint it looks almost too good to pass up. I would appreciate your thoughts.
  • #56,405
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:47pm Dec 27, 2007 4:47pm
Lest we forget the all important 4hr 5sma's:

UJ 114.04
GU 1.9911
GJ 227.07

Then resume the trends, ST MT or LT.

Dr. D.
  • #56,406
  • Edited 5:12pm Dec 27, 2007 5:00pm | Edited 5:12pm
[quote=FX-Petra;1774850]
Quoting quecee5
queece,
I usually don't trade UJ, but that daily chart looks tempting. I'm thinking a short here, another @ 114.50, W/ protective stops above 115---looking for the bottom of that daily channel. From a risk/reward standpoint it looks almost too good to pass up. I would appreciate your thoughts.
fx-petra,

I've been shorting UJ since last week waiting for a break/close below trend line support which happened today, made nice pips from that. However, I was expecting it to at least challenge 114.75/80's before a major reversal toward the bottom of the channels as you have stated.

I'm still not convinced that we are in a reversal just yet until it touch the top of the range @ 114.82/85 or slightly higher to trigger stops, therefore I have TP targets if I see it move back above 114.20 area. So your strategy would be precisely the one I would use if I see it move back toward the top of the channel. . .
  • #56,407
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:24pm Dec 27, 2007 5:24pm
Hi Q,
UJ is above 50 EMA in 1 hr chart and it is giving good support,It is aslo above 100 SMA in 4 hr.
GU is again above 50 EMA and 100 SMA in 1 hr , only concern it is overbought
GJ is obviosly above 50 EMA . In these cirumstances , I dont see any reason for GJ to go down.
what is your thoughts on this.
  • #56,408
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:34pm Dec 27, 2007 5:34pm
Quoting sieb_ila
Hi Q,
UJ is above 50 EMA in 1 hr chart and it is giving good support,It is aslo above 100 SMA in 4 hr.
GU is again above 50 EMA and 100 SMA in 1 hr , only concern it is overbought
GJ is obviosly above 50 EMA . In these cirumstances , I dont see any reason for GJ to go down.
what is your thoughts on this.
UJ is back above trendline support and GU is still in an uptrend IMO to challenge at least 2.0000/2.0050/90's. That means GJ should go up but how far I'm not sure yet. UJ will be faced with resistance going back toward 114.20/30's which was support now turned resistance. So if it gets back above along with a rising GU then GJ has a good chance of seeing 230's however if its met with resistance and retreats back toward trend line support it could cap/limit GJ's move up. . . Hard to say at the moment. . .
  • #56,409
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:40pm Dec 27, 2007 5:40pm
Anyone that was trading EJ, I took profit @ 166.05, my 1st target b/c's it didn't go down to test the trend line @ 165.80/90's.

I'm now looking to re-short at higher levels. targeting 166.85/90, 167.20's possibly 168's. . .

Trade wise. . .
  • #56,410
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:44pm Dec 27, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting quecee5
UJ is back above trendline support and GU is still in an uptrend IMO to challenge at least 2.0000/2.0050/90's. That means GJ should go up but how far I'm not sure yet. UJ will be faced with resistance going back toward 114.20/30's which was support now turned resistance. So if it get back above along with a rising GU then GJ has a good chance of seeing 230's however if its met with resistance and retreats back toward trend line support it could cap/limit GJ's move up. . . Hard to say at the moment. . .
Thanks Q,
Hoping it will break thru the resistance , I am long ..
  • #56,411
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:45pm Dec 27, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting quecee5
Anyone that was trading EJ, I took profit @ 166.05, my 1st target b/c's it didn't go down to test the trend line @ 165.80/90's.

I'm now looking to re-short at higher levels. targeting 166.85/90, 167.20's possibly 168's. . .

Trade wise. . .

WIMP LMAO :
  • #56,412
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:50pm Dec 27, 2007 5:50pm
Quoting dagoods
WIMP LMAO :
  • #56,413
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:54pm Dec 27, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting sieb_ila
Hi Q,
UJ is above 50 EMA in 1 hr chart and it is giving good support,It is aslo above 100 SMA in 4 hr.
GU is again above 50 EMA and 100 SMA in 1 hr , only concern it is overbought
GJ is obviosly above 50 EMA . In these cirumstances , I dont see any reason for GJ to go down.
what is your thoughts on this.
check the uj daily chart..... longer term uj is ez to see where its headed..... of course... i could be wrong...wouldnt be the first time...but the chart looks so darn yummy!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj daily.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #56,414
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:10pm Dec 27, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting dagoods
check the uj daily chart..... longer term uj is ez to see where its headed..... of course... i could be wrong...would'nt be the first time...but the chart looks so darn yummy!!!!
Just remember its typical for it to move thru new channel range. The fact that it has now touched the bottom of the channel but has not challenged the top has me a bit concerned.

The top of the channel is at 114.75/85 which I was expecting it to touch and go thru to touch 50% fib and trigger stops then back down. Since I haven't seen that yet it concern me that it could shoot back up. However if it doesn't thats grave. . .
  • #56,415
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:13pm Dec 27, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting sieb_ila
Hi Q,
UJ is above 50 EMA in 1 hr chart and it is giving good support,It is aslo above 100 SMA in 4 hr.
GU is again above 50 EMA and 100 SMA in 1 hr , only concern it is overbought
GJ is obviosly above 50 EMA . In these cirumstances , I dont see any reason for GJ to go down.
what is your thoughts on this.
That's my analysis at the moment as well.

It retrace approx 150 PIPs? Do you know the reason? Carry Trades/Overbought? Technical and Fundamentals were all in check.

It was overbought but not at the moment.
  • #56,416
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:15pm Dec 27, 2007 6:15pm
Quoting quecee5
Just remember its typical for it to move thru new channel range. The fact that it has now touched the bottom of the channel but has not challenged the top has me a bit concerned.

The top of the channel is at 114.75/85 which I was expecting it to touch and go thru to touch 50% fib and trigger stops then back down. Since I haven't seen that yet it concern me that it could shoot back up. However if it doesn't thats grave. . .

gotcha thanks q.... gonna hold to my long term scenario for now...... which has been all along gu up and uj down and gj confused..... i'm prepared to ride it out.... we'll see....
  • #56,417
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:16pm Dec 27, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting dagoods
check the uj daily chart..... longer term uj is ez to see where its headed..... of course... i could be wrong...wouldnt be the first time...but the chart looks so darn yummy!!!!
Thanks dagoods for your chart.
If you see in 4 hr chart it is a perfect Bull Flag pattern since from 107.50 (Nov 26) . If it breaks and closes below 113.50 then chances of going up could be a big question IMO.
  • #56,418
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:19pm Dec 27, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting dagoods
gotcha thanks q.... gonna hold to my long term scenario for now...... which has been all along gu up and uj down and gj confused..... i'm prepared to ride it out.... we'll see....
You keep me in check. . .
I'm with cha' all they way just like to look at both sides so I don't cloud my judgement!
  • #56,419
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:25pm Dec 27, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting fish2007
That's my analysis at the moment as well.

It retrace approx 150 PIPs? Do you know the reason? Carry Trades/Overbought? Technical and Fundamentals were all in check.

It was overbought but not at the moment.
The Re-trace of 150 pips is very simple, it is just because of Geo-Political Reasons, Dow went down , Euro/USD went up as buyers thought it is safe currency , Obviously UJ went down. IMO it is just a over-Reaction of the market. I believe it is temporary. Let us see after end of Asian session or during UK session. Tomorrow I expect Dow in Green,
  • #56,420
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:27pm Dec 27, 2007 6:27pm
my study tells me UJ will go slight more down..

other persons pass your views.

thanks
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