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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #56,361
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:55pm Dec 27, 2007 12:55pm
[quote=FX-Petra;1774635]
Quoting quecee5

There is no question that from a risk perspective, GJ will see 225.50 before 230.50(my year end price). As I said, from a UJ daily perspective it will not happen if it goes to the bottm of its channel---below 107. Best we can hope for from GU is hold steady or a little higher (2.0100). I must admit that from a GU and UJ daily persepctive 230's are not looking good short term. Maybe we will have to retest the GJ channel bottom before we can get to that infamous 50 fib line near 231.50. Long term, I still belive we will hit that line before we go below 220.
Thats the best explanation I've heard so far. . .
I was wondering if anyone esle was watching these pairs and saw something different.

Also, I agree if GU makes a run at 2.000/2.0100 while UJ holds steady I can see GJ going a bit higher maybe 229 but not much more than that unless the fall we are seeing in UJ is a false break which is possible. Could be that the stock market is bringing it down.

One thing I do know is UJ usually is the leader in carry trades trends so if it starts to fall typically we'll see other carry's follow, followed by majors. . .
  • #56,362
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:12pm Dec 27, 2007 1:12pm
Any idea where Karmo has disappeared to? Looks like he's enjoying his pips in one of the World Islands in Dubai
  • #56,363
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:14pm Dec 27, 2007 1:14pm
I've been shorting E/J since 165.60. What goes up must come down....right??
Hopefully soon ...lol

Quoting quecee5
Anyone shorting EJ?
  • #56,364
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:16pm Dec 27, 2007 1:16pm
man, give karmo a break he must be soaked out - examines+forex ... woooow....
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #56,365
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:18pm Dec 27, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting koltri
man, give karmo a break he must be soaked out - examines+forex ... woooow....

sould love to hear from roycroy and saeed...any thoughts u2?
  • #56,366
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:18pm Dec 27, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting mrxit
I've been shorting E/J since 165.60. What goes up must come down....right??
Hopefully soon ...lol
What do you see as possible targets?
  • #56,367
  • Edited 1:28pm Dec 27, 2007 1:26pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting quecee5
What do you see as possible targets?

looking for confirmation to add to uj short...... soon.... hopefully... ej not yet confirmed IMHO as ej might test the upper tL as wekly and daily have yet to turn bear..... but i think it'll go soon.....lets see..... gu doesnt want to lay down...still long ...for now..... gj ????? nevermind there goes uj down... ha ha
  • #56,368
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:37pm Dec 27, 2007 1:37pm
Quoting fish2007
Any one knows the reason why GJ restraced approx 150 PIPS in the last 8 hrs? My projections are still in the 230s.
The negative news, especially Core Durable Goods and the Bhutto assassination, sent U/J and the Dow reeling, and G/J followed. You can drill down to the M5 chart and see the timing. The Dow has been down ever since and has only recovered slightly. It was fundamental influences, not technicals playing out.
  • #56,369
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:37pm Dec 27, 2007 1:37pm
Quoting dagoods
looking for confirmation to add to uj short...... soon.... hopefully... ej not yet confirmed IMHO as ej might test the upper tL as wekly and daily have yet to turn bear..... but i think it'll go soon.....lets see..... gu doesnt want to lay down...still long ...for now..... gj ????? nevermind there goes uj down... ha ha
Dagoods Thxs. . .

As for EJ I believe you are correct, I'm not convinced its completed the upside yet however I do believe we will test the recent lower support/trendline @ 165.90's and may bounce from there.

A break below sees 165.29 which is the daily pivot. If we get an hourly close below this price then we'll see Aus daily prediction @ 164.65/85

As for GJ, stay tuned its moving toward my original TP from yesterday of 225.20/60's. . . Should get there within the next couple of sessions. . .
  • #56,370
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:44pm Dec 27, 2007 1:44pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
The negative news, especially Core Durable Goods and the Bhutto assassination, sent U/J and the Dow reeling, and G/J followed. You can drill down to the M5 chart and see the timing. The Dow has been down ever since and has only recovered slightly. It was fundamental influences, not technicals playing out.
my thoughts exactly for UJ's bearish rally today. Just saw a rerun of the gory event. Horrible to say the least!
  • #56,371
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:46pm Dec 27, 2007 1:46pm
Guys i think that the long positions'll be safe above 227.50,where we have a daily pivot + 1h Gann.Otherwise i'm bearish especially with thr 1h 4 h and the daily momentums.The 1h QQE is ponting south and the 4h almost crossed the slow RSI.
  • #56,372
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:48pm Dec 27, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting quecee5
Dagoods Thxs. . .

As for EJ I believe you are correct, I'm not convinced its completed the upside yet however I do believe we will test the recent lower support/trendline @ 165.90's and may bounce from there.

A break below sees 165.29 which is the daily pivot. If we get an hourly close below this price then we'll see Aus daily prediction @ 164.65/85

As for GJ, stay tuned its moving toward my original TP from yesterday of 225.20/60's. . . Should get there within the next couple of sessions. . .

eu still in major uptrend..... trading well above upper tl... has a lot more room to move up... consider eu in your anaysis of ej and thus gu uj gj as i think the real leader is usually eu to determine usd direction....e/u needs to complete its up cycle... IMHO sending usd lower.... so uj lower.... gu higher... so ej still up a bit or stalled at least....and gj confused.... your thoughts???
  • #56,373
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:50pm Dec 27, 2007 1:50pm
[quote=quecee5;1774591]
Quoting fish2007

IMHO UJ is headed toward 112.70's support in the next few sessions, unless GU makes a significant move higher I can't see GJ reaching 230's/233 before seeing 225's and possibly lower. . . GU will face resistance @ 2.0000 so how do you all see 232's if you don't mind me asking? I can possibly see 229's (lows) with a GU push up but nothing higher at the moment. . .How do we get there?

Possibilty that it will retrace some more. However, my Daily Charts shows MA above the current price, MA(228.73)/ MA 231.67 These MA not only provide support and resistance but also provide a trend in prices. Last week GJ rebounce and TL on my 4hr chart shows projection of approx 200 PIPs which brought price in Fibonacci area of 61.8% which offered temp resistance. Price then shoot to 227 area. I locked in profits all the way up.

You may be right with 229 because this provided major resistance on the last upward run of GJ after it retrace after hitting Monthly Pivot (230.34) and then tried to move up again toward 230.34.

I would like to think 230 area. Why? Current economic conditions forecast does seem to be positive for the cable but these are only forecasted figures. At lease for next week I am not seem anything that would move the market in the reverse direction but I will have to double check. Again 230 might get here in the next couple weeks. Who knows?

CPI coming out for the YEN. Will this be enough to send the market in reverse direction????? We will see. Forecast suggest probably not.

Anyhow I just wanted to know why there was a recent reversal of 150 pips. If anyone knows. It would be nice to know. I had already locked in profits.
  • #56,374
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:50pm Dec 27, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting dagoods
eu still in major uptrend..... trading well above upper tl... has a lot more room to move up... consider eu in your anaysis of ej and thus gu uj gj as i think the real leader is usually eu to determine usd direction....e/u needs to complete its up cycle... IMHO sending usd lower.... so uj lower.... gu higher... so ej still up a bit or stalled at least....and gj confused.... your thoughts???

eu chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu up.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #56,375
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:02pm Dec 27, 2007 2:02pm
Yep, Ms. Bhutto's asassination led to the perceived safety of the Euro today, while taking others with it including E/J. The yen is often considered a refuge for the market also, I think we saw some of that with the the downtrend of U/J along with other economic news in the US.




Quoting dagoods
eu chart
  • #56,376
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:07pm Dec 27, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting dagoods
eu still in major uptrend..... trading well above upper tl... has a lot more room to move up... consider eu in your anaysis of ej and thus gu uj gj as i think the real leader is usually eu to determine usd direction....e/u needs to complete its up cycle... IMHO sending usd lower.... so uj lower.... gu higher... so ej still up a bit or stalled at least....and gj confused.... your thoughts???
Hmmmm, very good thoughts. . .
Actually EU is in a downtrend and the up move we're seeing is corrective IMO and I expect more downside toward 1.41xx area over the coming weeks. I also do see more upward movement in EJ, but I think we should see some pullback before resuming if at all. . .
  • #56,377
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:16pm Dec 27, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting quecee5
Hmmmm, very good thoughts. . .
Actually EU is in a downtrend and the up move we're seeing is corrective IMO and I expect more downside toward 1.41xx area over the coming weeks. I also do see more upward movement in EJ, but I think we should see some pullback before resuming if at all. . .
coming weeks eh.... cant see that far...still only looking at the trees...the forest is too scary.. lol.... but mouteki (demark) says eu still up.... for now..so... just my reasons for not taking the ej short yet..... and for thinking gu is up more and uj is down more..... but what do i know i'm still new.... but getting much better lets watch the pa and see... its all gravy now so...
  • #56,378
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:20pm Dec 27, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting quecee5
Hmmmm, very good thoughts. . .
Actually EU is in a downtrend and the up move we're seeing is corrective IMO and I expect more downside toward 1.41xx area over the coming weeks. I also do see more upward movement in EJ, but I think we should see some pullback before resuming if at all. . .

if gu pulls back and bounces off its upper tl (red line) support i will put a long on the fire ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #56,379
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:22pm Dec 27, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting dagoods
coming weeks eh.... cant see that far...still only looking at the trees...the forest is too scary.. lol.... but mouteki (demark) says eu still up.... for now..so... just my reasons for not taking the ej short yet..... and for thinking gu is up more and uj is down more..... but what do i know i'm still new.... but getting much better lets watch the pa and see... its all gravy now so...
Agreed -
  • #56,380
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:24pm Dec 27, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting dagoods
if gu pulls back and bounces off its upper tl (red line) support i will put a long on the fire ...
GJ or GU long?
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