Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked) | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Peaks and troughs in an array 4 replies

Peaks and Troffs 90 replies

S&P 500 / ES Futures - Fine tune troughs and peaks 2 replies

Bow's trading journal 2 (almost naked trading on m5) 26 replies

Intraday peaks and troughs 0 replies

Attachments: Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)
Exit Attachments

Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #21
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:40am Dec 27, 2007 1:40am
Quoting LightKeeper
That's a valid point. Price very often hits the same level twice (or more) only to bounce off. Just look at any decent consolidation. In those situations, we would have a trigger every single time because the high/low is invariably higher/lower (as the case may be) than the average or median. What if we were to approach this with a little more caution?

Eg.. Find your peak/valley. If it's a peak, find the High that corresponds to that peak. Only enter when price exceeds that High by a certain amount of pips. Where it's a valley, find the Low that corresponds to that valley. Enter short if price has gone a certain number of pips below that low. To illustrate it, you can use a standard candle chart (for your highs/lows) and plot an SMA with a period 1 and method "median" to help you find those peaks and valleys. Yes, we'd lose some pips but we woulnd't be getting caught out on every single range.....

Just my 1.5 pips

Lighty

ps. I even have an idea for some names. What if we were to call those Peaks "Resistance" and those Valleys "Support"?


Or if you use MT4, it gives you the high and low for each candle even on a line chart.

Chris
  • #22
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:41am Dec 27, 2007 2:41am
Thought I'd jump in and contribute.

I like to use the Fib tool in MT4 when trying to gauge price projections and market rhythm.

For those interested in the modified settings for the fib tool:

Levels -
0, .5, 1,-1, 2

note: if you'd like the price to show at the end of the fib lines (as shown in the picture) just ad "%$" on the description column at the end of every level.

So here's the deal. If in an upward trend, you measure last peak to last valley. The highest line up becomes a price projection. I always close at that point. If price overshoots the target, I qualify it as an over-extension... and start looking for shorting opportunities.

Let me know if I need to clarify anything.

Peace,
MM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: price projections.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #23
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:06am Dec 27, 2007 5:06am
thank you, kharvell...........by the way, i'm surprised an advanced trader like yourself uses oanda.........i've heard so many veterans criticize oanda for being too 'basic'...........but i like them a lot becoz i can't even handle MT4 demos........

by the way, how come i don't see you over at oanda's forum ?
  • #24
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:14am Dec 27, 2007 5:14am
Quoting mr.marketz
Thought I'd jump in and contribute.

I like to use the Fib tool in MT4 when trying to gauge price projections and market rhythm.

For those interested in the modified settings for the fib tool:

Levels -
0, .5, 1,-1, 2

note: if you'd like the price to show at the end of the fib lines (as shown in the picture) just ad "%$" on the description column at the end of every level.

So here's the deal. If in an upward trend, you measure last peak to last valley. The highest line up becomes a price projection. I always close at that point. If price overshoots the target, I qualify it as an over-extension... and start looking for shorting opportunities.

Let me know if I need to clarify anything.

Peace,
MM

hi, i also noticed the eur/usd bounced off 3 fib levels around 1.4315 / 1.4353 / 1.4378 but it also seems that prices are in a downward channel at the moment and could be a retest of the head & shoulders neckline.

kindly correct me if i'm wrong ?
  • #25
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:48am Dec 27, 2007 5:48am
Quoting findcount
hi, i also noticed the eur/usd bounced off 3 fib levels around 1.4315 / 1.4353 / 1.4378 but it also seems that prices are in a downward channel at the moment and could be a retest of the head & shoulders neckline.

kindly correct me if i'm wrong ?
Sorry findcount, but I don't trade that pair. I just pulled up any chart to show what my Fib tool looks like, and my setups. I day trade so I try not to over analyze the current market situation. I'm just used to my set ups... when I see them I react.

I hope this helps... but I guess it doesn't really answer your question. Sorry.
  • #26
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:58am Dec 27, 2007 5:58am
Findcount,

I just pulled up the chart... didn't even realize it was a daily ( I'm typically looking @5's. At any rate, there are two options that I see here.

1. for those with balls: go long now to 1.4630 area.
2. for the more conservative types: go short at 1.4630 area.

These are not "free forex signals" just the way I see it. Price will travel back to the .50 level, and more than likely bounce back south to retest 1.43.

Hoping this made sense.

MM

edit: in other words, if this were a 5 min chart... I would be thinking along those lines (in terms of price action)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #27
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:31am Dec 27, 2007 6:31am
This is what i see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #28
  • Dec 27, 2007 8:56am Dec 27, 2007 8:56am
Hey guys,

A lot of great questions, comments, and contributions. Keep it up! Unfortunately, I've got work today, so I will not be able to respond to them all until I get home later this evening. I'll try to get to answering as soon as possible.

Meantime, it's a good time for trading this method. Still long GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/JPY.
Attached Image
  • #29
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:27am Dec 27, 2007 9:27am
That's right folks the truth (price action) shall set you free (of indicators)!

Kevin, you are a man after my own trading heart...lol This is so very similar to my trading methodology it isn't even funny.

Attached is a current trade I am in now with arrows indicating the bars that gave me my entry.

No indicators just price baby that's the way to play it...IMHO

Thanks for posting your system.

Trader_V
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 27 KB
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #30
  • Edited 4:42am Dec 28, 2007 2:45am | Edited 4:42am
Quick screenshot on GBPUSD on a demo account. This is not what i have taken as i'm just testing right now. Potential 550 pips - 1 loss

Edit : i just saw that i forgot several trade during the downtrend and uptrend so in fact that is much more than 550 pips... (probably around 800...)

Kharvell, you said that you wont put TP but when do you close the trade ? (i have my own strategy that is a two lot with TP @ 30 for 1 lot and let the other run )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kharv.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #31
  • Dec 28, 2007 9:09am Dec 28, 2007 9:09am
Quoting LightKeeper
That's a valid point. Price very often hits the same level twice (or more) only to bounce off. Just look at any decent consolidation. In those situations, we would have a trigger every single time because the high/low is invariably higher/lower (as the case may be) than the average or median. What if we were to approach this with a little more caution?

Eg.. Find your peak/valley. If it's a peak, find the High that corresponds to that peak. Only enter when price exceeds that High by a certain amount of pips. Where it's a valley, find the Low that corresponds to that valley. Enter short if price has gone a certain number of pips below that low. To illustrate it, you can use a standard candle chart (for your highs/lows) and plot an SMA with a period 1 and method "median" to help you find those peaks and valleys. Yes, we'd lose some pips but we woulnd't be getting caught out on every single range.....

Just my 1.5 pips

Lighty

ps. I even have an idea for some names. What if we were to call those Peaks "Resistance" and those Valleys "Support"?
Hey Lighty,

Good of you to stop by! Great post. In fact, you have just about convinced me to use candles instead of lines. Perhaps that is what I will use from now on... and LOL on your PS. Call them whatever you want, as long as we all know what we're talking about

Best of luck,

Kevin

Quote
Thought I'd jump in and contribute.

I like to use the Fib tool in MT4 when trying to gauge price projections and market rhythm.

For those interested in the modified settings for the fib tool:

Levels -
0, .5, 1,-1, 2

note: if you'd like the price to show at the end of the fib lines (as shown in the picture) just ad "%$" on the description column at the end of every level.

So here's the deal. If in an upward trend, you measure last peak to last valley. The highest line up becomes a price projection. I always close at that point. If price overshoots the target, I qualify it as an over-extension... and start looking for shorting opportunities.

Let me know if I need to clarify anything.

Peace,
MM

Hey MM,

Nice contribution here, thanks! I'm a little hesitant to add more indicators to a method that can very well stand on its own. In a sense, if there are fib areas of support/resistance, then they are already taken into account because we use support/resistance in the method. On the same token however, continue to look into it and get back to us if you find the mecca of pips.

Thanks,

Kevin

Quote
thank you, kharvell...........by the way, i'm surprised an advanced trader like yourself uses oanda.........i've heard so many veterans criticize oanda for being too 'basic'...........but i like them a lot becoz i can't even handle MT4 demos........

by the way, how come i don't see you over at oanda's forum ?

Hey findcount,

Oanda IS too basic. I have a mac that doesn't run windows and thus no hope of ever running MT4 charting packages. It's not by choice that I use Oanda. Although at this point given a choice between the two, I may as well stick to Oanda. Using Oanda has allowed me to develop the simple methods I have, and for that I am grateful. Oanda's forums just don't have that atmosphere that I like around here..

Final verdict: Oanda, good for broker, bad for charts.

Quote
The truth shall set you free (of indicators)
That's right folks the truth (price action) shall set you free (of indicators)!

Kevin, you are a man after my own trading heart...lol This is so very similar to my trading methodology it isn't even funny.

Attached is a current trade I am in now with arrows indicating the bars that gave me my entry.

No indicators just price baby that's the way to play it...IMHO

Thanks for posting your system.

Trader_V

Hello Trader V,

Appreciate the nice post. You mention that you are trading very similarly. What are you doing differently that I should maybe ponder about? Look forward to hearing from you in the future.

Thanks,

Kevin

Quote
Quick screenshot on GBPUSD on a demo account. This is not what i have taken as i'm just testing right now. Potential 550 pips - 1 loss

Edit : i just saw that i forgot several trade during the downtrend and uptrend so in fact that is much more than 550 pips... (probably around 800...)

Kharvell, you said that you wont put TP but when do you close the trade ? (i have my own strategy that is a two lot with TP @ 30 for 1 lot and let the other run )

melpheos,

You're a good man with good ideas my friend. My trades are closed when my S/L is hit. I think that if you are going to use two lots, one lot should have the T/P of the other's S/L. Does this make sense? So, if we are using 50 pips S/L, I would use 50 pip T/P on one lot. This creates the scenario of losing 50% of trades but still coming out breakeven. The downside is that all losses would be doubled assuming T/P is never hit.

The reason why I don't like T/P's is a reason that every trader should decide for themselves. There's a fine line between finite and infinite in forex. Who knows whether you could enter a long trade, and you never have to leave it. A homerun if you will. That's what I like, homeruns. I would normally say T/P's rule out homeruns, but if you use 2 lots then you still have a chance.

Great comments,

Kevin
  • #32
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:04am Dec 28, 2007 11:04am
Quoting melpheos
Quick screenshot on GBPUSD on a demo account. This is not what i have taken as i'm just testing right now. Potential 550 pips - 1 loss

Edit : i just saw that i forgot several trade during the downtrend and uptrend so in fact that is much more than 550 pips... (probably around 800...)

Kharvell, you said that you wont put TP but when do you close the trade ? (i have my own strategy that is a two lot with TP @ 30 for 1 lot and let the other run )

Hey Melph,

Are the blue and red dots some sort of Fractal Indicator? Thanks!

Chris
  • #33
  • Dec 28, 2007 3:31pm Dec 28, 2007 3:31pm
lol

i dont use LINE CHARTS -- NEVER. The same 4 candles.

I use only highs and lows on bar charts + time factor.
  • #34
  • Dec 28, 2007 4:39pm Dec 28, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting Cmartin371
Hey Melph,

Are the blue and red dots some sort of Fractal Indicator? Thanks!

Chris
Yes that the same thing, so sometime they will repaint on the 5th candle of the pattern so you allway have to wait the end of the 5th candle to make sure that the line will stays on.

Look for barry support and resistance indicator (but in any case it's totally based on fractal )

Working with zigzag should do the same job but with more repainting. Anyway, the idea is just to pick up peaks and valley but i'm too lazy ^^
  • #35
  • Dec 28, 2007 9:24pm Dec 28, 2007 9:24pm
kharvell,

good post....I have been trading this way for over 10 years and I agree that TP will ruin a good trade. I always let them run as far as they will....sometimes not very far sometimes a LONG way...like my EUR/USD long from 1.4414 and my short USD/CHF from 1.1513

I use a fractal with a minimum strength of 3 on either side and trail it with a stop until it gets stopped out....I have found a trailing method that works very very well...shoot me a message if you are interested in chatting about it

Once again price trading trumps all indicator based systems because they deal with history, not the present

Keep up the great work of making folks think
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #36
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:39pm Dec 30, 2007 2:39pm
Hey Kevin,

Have you considered looking into an intel based mac? Parallels is about the coolest program ever. I can run Win2000 or XP or Vista in the background of OSX which lets me run Accucharts and Metatrader in OSX. I too use Oanda for broker and not for charting. Accucharts from FXSol is quite nice too.

If you have an intel based mac, go run and spend the 70 bucks to get Parallels.
  • #37
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:17pm Dec 30, 2007 3:17pm
Just a quick test on 4H.

There is a bit more on the chart than the necessary for this method but i'm just testing here.

Each green box gives a minimum of 30 pips. Red box, are losses... losses ? no. Loss because there is only ONE losing trade here...

33 trades, 1 looser... Success rate on this pair in 2 and 1/2 month 97%... and a minimum of 900 pips gain (for sure much more depending on the exit strategy )

edit : made a mistake on the 16th, it is a loser.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: barry.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #38
  • Dec 30, 2007 3:50pm Dec 30, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting melpheos
Just a quick test on 4H.

There is a bit more on the chart than the necessary for this method but i'm just testing here.

Each green box gives a minimum of 30 pips. Red box, are losses... losses ? no. Loss because there is only ONE losing trade here...

33 trades, 1 looser... Success rate on this pair in 2 and 1/2 month 97%... and a minimum of 900 pips gain (for sure much more depending on the exit strategy )

edit : made a mistake on the 16th, it is a loser.
Hi, but when do u know that is the moment to exit the trade?
  • #39
  • Dec 30, 2007 7:47pm Dec 30, 2007 7:47pm
Thanks for this method Kevin. Makes me wonder why i've been using those mathematically manipulated monsters called indicators.
  • #40
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:23pm Dec 30, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting swingtrade65
kharvell,

good post....I have been trading this way for over 10 years and I agree that TP will ruin a good trade. I always let them run as far as they will....sometimes not very far sometimes a LONG way...like my EUR/USD long from 1.4414 and my short USD/CHF from 1.1513

I use a fractal with a minimum strength of 3 on either side and trail it with a stop until it gets stopped out....I have found a trailing method that works very very well...shoot me a message if you are interested in chatting about it

Once again price trading trumps all indicator based systems because they deal with history, not the present

Keep up the great work of making folks think
Could you elaborate more about your trailing stop?

For me, im trailing stop the last 2 opposite fractal but sometimes the stoploss are big.
1 trader viewing now