My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD

EURUSD

Trade signals:
Sell 1.3586, stop 1.3627, target 1.3475.
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/8249/eurh4uw1.gif

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/4335/eurd1vz1.gif




GBPUSD

Trade signals:
Sell 2.0131, stop 2.0205, target 2.0020
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/4376/gbph4ap9.gif

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/617/gbpd1ad6.gif



USDCHF
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/7886/chfh4ek1.gif - H4

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/1359/chfd1er2.gif - D1




DXY
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5770/dxyh4ev0.gif - H4

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/7585/dxyd1be3.gif - D1




USDJPY and GOLD – look at previous forecasts

25.11.07


EURUSD
Trade recomendations:
sell 1.4863, take profit 1.4630, stop loss 1.4930
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/4443/eurh4ty8.gif

http://img160.imageshack.us/img160/4220/eurd1xt6.gif - daily



GBPUSD
Trade recomendations:
sell 2.0635, take profit 2.0425, stop loss 2.0760
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9316/gbph4rf0.gif

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/725/gbpd1bd5.gif - daily



USDJPY
Trade recomendations:
buy 108.80, take profit 110.05, stop loss 108.15
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/5918/jpyh4fc1.gif

http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/2962/jpyd1hz0.gif - daily



GOLD
Trade recommendations:
sell 827.27 - 828.98, take profit 785.50, stop loss 835.
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/1572/goldh4vm4.gif

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9201/goldd1md5.gif - daily

Temporary consolidationDollar pairs slowed down their movement after starting to grow rapidly, but the trade goes on and it’s necessary to determine the trading range which is now offered by dollar. To determine also if the movement towards dollar’s growth will continue or the correction will start, and the depth of correction.Dollar indexOn the day’s graph the index has broken a descending green trend and the upper range of “double top” shape, what gives dollar a potential for further growth if the index remains above trends. Targets for further growth are high, and the correction may elongate up to level of 75.69.Correction range determination using index let us trade in favour of dollar’s price reduction in following pairs:GBPUSDOn a 4-hours graph the side trend continues. On an hour graph the side trend has also formed. http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/8818/gbph4gi0.gifNo rading recommendations:EURUSDThe pair is set against an ascending green trend from the daily graph (see daily graphs in previous forecasts). When bounced of it, the pair formed a potential of growth to 1.4750, from where I expect further reducing as low as to 1.4200.Of course, breaking of green trend from current levels is also possible.http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/9250/eurh4we5.gifTrading recommendations:buy by market situation, but not higher than 1.4770 with a stop 1.4615 and a target 1.4750USDJPYI expect forming a “head & shoulders” shape on a daily graph with right shoulder’s end at price about 109.35. Forming of this shape is contributed by inability of rapid breaking of descending daily trend, and the divergence on a daily graph.http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/3259/jpyd1ws4.gifOn a 4-hours graph the pair formed a “double top” shape with a target 109.35.http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/7959/jpyh4ax2.gif - H4Trading recommendations:Sell at 110.15, target 109.35, stop 110.60Buy 110.60, target 113.48, stop 110.15GOLDAt Í4 Gold is in the side trend, having broken this trend it has a chance of growth to 807.00. I keep myself from trading for the time being.

Complex view at the market


Dollar index and Gold
The market continues consolidation, taking a direction. Gold at the daily graph forms a triangle and today it has broken a descending side trend at H4, opening a way of growth to 807.00. The growth to 820.00 is also possible, depending on the market situation after reaching the first target. Such picture says in a favour of dollar’s continued dropping.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/4297/goldh4my1.gif
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9500/goldd1kv4.gif - daily

Dollar index is set on the support expressed in upper bounds of ascending H4 trend and “double bottom” daily shape. Upon breaking the ascending trend’s lower bound index will get ability of dropping at 75.15.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/8650/dxyh4qz6.gif
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/155/dxyd1bw1.gif - daily



EURUSD
As supposed, the pair has reached 1.4750 level, which showed a resistance. At the same moment, the pair set against the upper bound of a descending 4-hours trend. Upon breaking it, the pair will get ability of growth to 1.4841, possibly a key level from which forming of the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape may start. The potential of forming such shape is expressed not only with the general picture of the main pairs, but also with the divergence at the daily graph.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9998/eurusdh4cd9.gif
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6214/eurusdd1ib1.gif - daily



USDCHF
On a 4-hours graph the pair has broken the lower bound of an ascending trend; this has opened a target 1.1020.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9453/usdchfh4wt3.gif



USDJPY
I supposed forming the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape on this pair at 109.35 level, this scenario is not cancelled for the time being. If the pair won’t go up from this level, its target will become the support at 108.16.
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/5003/usdjpyh4lg5.gif
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/5003/usdjpyh4lg5.gif - Н4

Uncertainty before non-farm payrollsDollar indexIndex has broken a neck line and the 77.84 level is its target. But since a turned candle “hammer” formed at the EUR/USD daily graph today, tomorrow is the time for very great news concerning employment market and the picture over all main pairs is clear to everyone, movement towards 77.84 is very possible, as well as reverse neck line breaking followed by decrease with 75.14 target.http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/5330/dxyh4ii8.gifhttp://img70.imageshack.us/img70/827/dxyd1ys1.gif - D1GOLDOn a daily graph gold forms a “triangle” shape which may be broken either upwards or downwards (which is more probable). On a 4-hours graph a “head & shoulders” shape is formed. If tomorrow (December, 7) gold will manage to remain below neck line, then it will go down to “triangle” shape’s lower bound (779.38). In the case of its breaking gold will tend to grow to triangle’s higher bound (828.36) but in the path of this growth there will be a resistance at 820.50.http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4953/goldh4ex8.gif - H4http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/580/goldd1mg3.gif - D1EURUSDThis night EUR/USD sharply broke a neck line (1.4634), after reaching a red ascending daily trend (1.4525) the pair rapidly bumped out of it and went back to a neck line. During this movement a turned candle “hammer” shape was formed. The pair’s situation is uncertain. Logically, after breaking a neck line a good descending trend should start, but forming of a turned candle assumes equal possibilities of going up or down.Upon neck line bottom-up breaking (1.4643) there are two variants of consequences:1. the pair may bump off an ascending green daily trend.2. in the case of breaking of this trend, as well as breaking a descending 4-hours trend, the pair will forward to 1.4840.In the event that the pair bumps off a neck line (1.4640) it will go towards an ascending red daily trend (1.4550) and on its braking will go at 1.4370. Strategically, if this situation develops, I expect the pair at 1.4200.http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/1179/eurusdh4hz4.gifhttp://img223.imageshack.us/img223/5086/eurusdd1jw9.gif - dailyGBPUSD The pair broke a neck line (2.0414) of a “head & shoulders” shape, then rapidly dropped down, but a week’s ascending red trend (2.0179) showed a resistance to this movement. Bumping off it can give the pair a chance to bottom-up testing of a neck line (2.0420), but in this case a descending 4-hours trend will most likely be broken and then the pair may rise to 2.0523 and higher. If tomorrow the descending movement will continue and a red trend will be broken, the pair’s target will be 2.0010 level. Strategically, the pair will be forced to drop to 1.9600.http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/1896/gbpusdh4gy0.gifhttp://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7724/gbpusdd1ki5.gif - dailyhttp://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - weeklyUSDCHFThe pair broke the higher bound of a descending daily trend (1.1282) and now its target is 1.1680. But since the situation about the rest of pairs is rather uncertain, usd/chf also has possibility to go down ignoring the descending daily trend’s higher bound.On a 4-hours graph the pair is in a side trend (blue). In the case of breaking of its lower bound (1.1168), the decrease to 1.1020 will occur.http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/4526/usdchfh4vv2.gifhttp://img81.imageshack.us/img81/228/usdchfd1yz3.gif - dailyUSDJPYAs supposed, the pair formed a “head & shoulders” shape, the neck line was broken and now the pair’s target is 113.48. But then again let’s take a look over other main pairs and not to be so sure, that this shape will work properly. If the neck line will be broken top-down (110.85), the pair will have a great chance to drop at 108.23.http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7824/usdjpyh4lx2.gif - H4http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/9892/usdjpyd1by3.gif - daily

Dollar growth is inevitable.



OIL
Dollar growth is inevitable. Primarily, we need to look at the oil graph as it shows more precise and global picture (it’s well-known that upon decrease of oil prices growth, dollar price rises). As the daily graph shows, an ascending daily trend was broken, after what a descending trend started forming. Also an ascending daily trend (blue) was falsely broken and the “diamond” shape at H4 graph had formed, which is already exhausted meaning the oil price growth at H4 comes to an end. If oil will manage to break this blue trend again, it will go down to support 89.50. If oil also overcomes this support, the target becomes 81.43 level.
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8814/oild1zz3.gif - D1
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8215/oilh4me2.gif - H4


Dollar index
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4509/dxyd1si9.gif - D1
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5293/dxyh4up3.gif - Н4

EURUSD
The daily graph shows that the pair is closed in the range between red and green ascending daily trends. I expect the red trend breaking and going down to the first target at 1.4371. My strategic target is 1.4200 (going down to the blue ascending trend), but again examining the pair behavior at 1.4371 is necessary.

At H4 graph the pair has a weak resistance at 1.4639 which is likely to collapse, but I’ll try to sell at it. I can’t see more exact resistances above, hence I won’t name the price. The pair trades in a descending trend, which is worth orienting to. Braking of this trend will put in doubt the pair’s willing to go down and in that case it has a good chance to grow to 1.4750. If the red trend (daily) will be repeatedly broken, the pair will head to the blue trend, and upon breaking it – to 1.4371. This course of events is the most probable due to pictures on oil, dollar index, gold and the rest main pairs.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6567/eurd1mt3.gif
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6307/eurh4uk4.gif - H4


GBPUSD
At D1 graph we were having a “head & shoulders” shape which was successfully ignored by the market, because a very strong trend emerged in its way.. The pair bounced off this trend on 390 pips – the red ascending trend from W1 graph. Its breaking opens the way of going down to 1.9855 for the pair

At H4 graph the ascending trend was broken and a slightly deformed “head & shoulders” shape is forming. This shape is formed with a very important rule violation, hence we need to be careful with its neck line braking, it may be false. Now the right shoulder is forming. Its forming can long until 2.0450, where a strong resistance in a form of neck line of the daily “head & shoulders” is situated. Also, the pair may not reach 2.0450, if the lower bound of an ascending trend manages to show a decent resistance. I expect the breaking of neck line, followed by the red trend breaking and I will head to the strategic target at 1.9850.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5227/gbpd1cp2.gif
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3429/gbph4xd1.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - W1


USDCHF
At D1 the pair overcome all the resistances and has nothing else to do as go to 1.1679.

At H4 a “bull’s triangle” shape is formed, support at 1.1390.
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/9571/chfd1rv8.gif
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/6871/chfh4tp7.gif - H4


GOLD
At D1 a “triangle” shape is formed, with breaking the lower bound of which the gold will go down to 746.00.

At H4 an ascending trend is broken, which opens the sure path of going down to the lower “triangle’s” boundary – 781.50.
Resistance is at 801.26. It may also be the lower bound of the ascending trend from H4 graph.
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/4772/goldh4qs7.gif

24.12.07

Correction to come – dollar is in the fourth wave

General view
Main pairs have reached their target levels and now the 4th correction wave (by Elliot) is beginning.
It’s known that the 4th wave is the most complex and it can deliver surprises. This time won’t be exception. I’m being cautious about the fact that gold made a sudden leap towards rising of price while dollar was still – this is a signal of dollar’s drop. Also, swap trade has begun in cross pairs, causing repositioning of traders’ deals. That confirms the movement about gold. Hence, in my opinion, from the current 4th wave we may expect very sudden as well as very slow moves due to absence of powerful news (that are able to give impulse to the market) for over two weeks.


EURUSD
The pair is consolidating in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 1.4525. A neck line of “head & shoulders” shape is at the same level. From 1.4525 I expect the pair to turn with a target of the 5th wave (1.4095). But before this level, at 1.4310, there is a very important trend “G” (upper bound of bull’s triangle), which is able to keep the pair from going down. If it manages to do so, strategically, I expect a serious correction to 1.4670 level (see weekly graph) followed by pair’s lowering to trend “H”, approximately to a level of the 39th shape (1.3900).
If the 4th wave won’t start, the pair will go down to 1.4210.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4470/eurusdh4hx0.gif
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9260/eurusdd1mm2.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/6377/eurusdw1zf2.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Buy 1.4424, target 1.4525, stop 1.4384.
Sell 1.4525, target 1.4210, stop 1.4565.


GBPUSD
The reason of stop in pair’s lowering is “G” trend from the weekly graph, and also the ending of the 3rd wave of the daily trend “C-C+”. Although rumor has it that pound is currently the most vulnerable pair, the analysis of the picture about EURGBP clearly negates this rumor.
Now the pair is being traded in a descending “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 2.0222. At the hour’s graph “double bottom” shape is forming based on 1.9892 level. On its breaking, the pair will tend to break the upper bound of “a-a+” trend. The target of the 4th wave is 2.0222 level, but there is a very important trend “E” before it, that is capable of keeping the pair from growing to 2.0222. It’s very probably that the growth will stop at 2.0115 level and the pair will forward to 1.9557 from it. That level is not the target of the 5th wave which is at 1.9229, but is rather a good support.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/5180/gbpusdh4oi2.gif
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/583/gbpusdd1dj4.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/1880/gbpusdw1cd7.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Accumulative positions
1) Buy 1.9910, stop 1.9870, target 2.0115
2) Buy on breaking of the “a-a+” channel’s upper bound, stop 60 points, target 2.0115
From 2.0115 I will consider options to sell.


EURGBP
The pair has reached the target 0.7253 on the monthly “bull’s triangle” shape and now it is most likely to undergo a serious correction. On the weekly graph we see that the pair is in “E-E+” descending trend that should contain 5 ascending waves. On “C-C+” trend breaking the 3rd wave will finish and the 4th correction wave with 0.7062 target will start. The target of the 5th wave will be 0.7390. In favor of “C-C+” trend breaking speaks the side channel from the daily “K-K+” graph, and the “triple vertex” shape which has exhausted its growth potential. Analysis of the 4-hours graph shows that the ascending “a-a+” trend is just about to be broken and the pair will go down to the first support at 0.7172.
Such picture is in favor of deeper correction about GBPUSD pair and starting from it, the pair is quite capable of reaching 2.0222, having not bounced off 2.0115.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/9894/eurgbph4lg2.gif - H4
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3812/eurgbpd1rg9.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/2982/eurgbpw1az9.gif - weekly
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3304/eurgbpmnqm9.gif - MN

Trading recommendations:
Sell 0.7223, intermediate target 0.7172, stop 0.7248.



USDCHF
The pair consolidates in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with a target at 1.1432 – 1.1372. The target of the 5th wave is 1.1862.
http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/8862/usdchfh4ei6.gif
http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/7411/usdchfd1sb0.gif - D1
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/6453/usdchfw1cz8.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Sell 1.1485, target 1.1400, stop 1.1525
I will consider buying later from 1.1372.



USDJPY
Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.
http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/3269/usdjpyh4dn7.gif
http://img502.imageshack.us/my.php?i...sdjpyd1pz9.gif - D1



Dollar index
The picture I see about it is not as clear as about the pairs listed above, but still I see something.
Index is set against the weekly “E” trend, which shows a resistance. On breaking of the side “a-a+” trend the ascending impulse will fade out and the index will go down to 76.32 or bounce off the “C” trend.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/233/dxyh4wq1.gif - H4
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/3372/dxyd1fd4.gif -D1


GOLD
On the daily graph gold is in “triangle” shape (“E-E+”), and in that triangle there is a 4-hour triangle (“C-C+”) which had been broken last week. Its breaking opens to gold an opportunity of growth to target level of 814.47, from which (with “a-a+” trend breaking) I expect a drop to the daily triangle’s lower bound, “E” trend (785.50).
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/6812/goldgp3.gif - H4-D1


Oil
In my previous forecast I wrote that the growth from 89.30 level is possible, and so it happened. Now I expect oil at 96.099. Approximately from this level (with breaking of the ascending “a-a+” trend) the descending trend with target at 81.43 should start.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/251/oilh4im4.gif - H4
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/4888/oild1kk9.gif - D1

wow what a great and clean analisys, all in line with my own forecasts and most importantly in check with some important traders think.

the only one i dissagree is uj coming into account we are close to january and carry cows will nerve up as bad annuncements start to come in.
if reports and holiday sales are good, forget what i just said. then your scenario is a given.

keep it up!.

07.01.08

EURUSD
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/5413/eurusdh4su1.gif
http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/1139/eurusdd1qj0.gif - D1


GBPUSD
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/4737/gbpusdd1cv9.gif - D1


USDCHF
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/2831/usdchfh4hy1.gif
http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/8306/usdchfd1vj0.gif - D1


USDJPY
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/4656/usdjpyh4my6.gif
http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/3020/usdjpyd1dn7.gif - D1


GOLD
http://img161.imageshack.us/img161/6941/goldh4kl3.gif
http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/6250/goldd1po1.gif - D1


Light sweet crude oil
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6033/oilh4os8.gif
http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9426/oild1if0.gif - D1

January 27, 2008


General view
A high volatility is observed at the market. Bears’ optimism about dollar is inspired by: the growth of EURUSD by 400 points since January 22 during two days; an update of Gold’s peaks and the sudden turn of the ascending trend of dollar index. But then again, a close look shows that dollar should start growing on Monday. For example, in EURUSD I expect such targets: 1.4542 (minimally), then 1.4445 and further to 1.4300. In USDCHF: 1.1310. In GOLD: 869 (minimally), 856 and 838. Meanwhile, dollar index will rise to 76.83 and 77.15.



EURUSD
The daily and 4-hour graphs show that the pair bumped off the lower bound of a “double top” (“D-D+”) shape. This circumstance determines the development of further descending to 1.4525 target minimally. If this level won’t offer a strong support (what is unlikely to happen) the pair will go down to 1.4445. If 1.4542 will offer support, a “head & shoulders” shape will be formed on H4; the right shoulder of this shape will end at ~1.4655, with bumping off it and breaking the neck line. After that, for the forming of a proper descending trend, the pair will need to update 1.4363, what will lead to breaking of the “E-E+” weekly ascending trend. Breaking of such an important trend will entail the continuation of pair’s dropping to the weekly ascending trend (the higher bound of a “bull’s triangle”) “G”, the 1.4300 level.
http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/5883/eurusdh4mn6.gif
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2086/eurusdd1sh8.gif - D1
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7624/eurusdw1pl8.gif - W1



GBPUSD
I don’t develop certain trading tactics for this pair because it is now in a heavy influence of EURGPB, which started to drop again with 0.7340 target. Due to the fact that GPB is not a very strong currency at the moment, the GBPUSD pair will move opposite to the general tendency of market’s behavior. Or it will often pass false levels, what can lead to stops’ activation in different directions. I have determined the range of pair’s free movement: 1.9665 – 1.9890. In the case of breaking the level 1.9890 (trend C+), I think there is a good chance for going up to 2.0120, if EURGBP will continue to drop and will have the potential of further lowering.
http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/1851/gbpusdh4yh1.gif - H4
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/8669/gbpusdd1lx3.gif - D1



USDCHF
The pair bumped off a very strong trend line. I consider the ascending movement as a main one. I expect the breaking of “F” trend (1.1085) followed by further growth with a target 1.1310.
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/6235/usdchfh4ry1.gif
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/8440/usdchfd1mg2.gif - D1



USDJPY
I expect an ascending movement, if the higher bound of an H4 channel “a-a+” won’t be broken bottom-up like “b-b+” trend. Starting from “a+” trend the buying is acceptable. The first target is 109.40, after which the 111.30 level is possible.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/6866/usdjpyh4rr2.gif
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2108/usdjpyd1ia8.gif - D1



DXY
Breaking of a daily “C-C+” channel determines the formation of an ascending daily trend. Breaking of an H4 trend “a-a+” confirms the ascending intentions of the market. The first target is 76.83, the next is 77.15.
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/6415/dxyh4zr3.gif - H4
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6768/dxyd1wd9.gif - D1



GOLD
Maximums have been updated again. Looking the picture about GOLD parallel to DXY and EURUSD pair, the conclusion is clear that gold won’t be able to grow further, because the dollar will start to grow from now on. On the H4 graph the ascending “a-a+” trend was broken, what is a first embryo of a descending trend. In the case of breaking the “b-b+” side trend, the certain descending trend will start with the first target of 869.78. If this level won’t offer a strong support, the descending movement will continue to 856 minimally.
On H4 just like on D1 we see the forming of a “double top” shape (C-C+); breaking of its lower bound “C” (856) opens the path of dropping to the lower bound of the weekly ascending trend “D-D+”, trend “D” (838).
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/5271/goldh4ap9.gif
http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/4337/goldd1bo6.gif - D1



Have a good trade, everyone!

03.02.08


EURUSD

http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20h4.gif





GBPUSD

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20d1.gif




USDCHF

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif




GOLD

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif



more charts you can see here

04.02.08

General view
EURUSD is now the pair that sets the fashion at the market, at the daily graph it is situated within a fixed range (“triangle” shape). Development of dollar’s situation will depend on EURUSD variants: whether it will be able to break the higher bound of a shape, or it will remain within the range, being corrected in the 5th wave of a shape to its lower bound “M” – 1.4420 level. But dollar growth is being supported not only by the 5th wave of triangle over EURUSD but also by GOLD, which is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29, meaning that at that time EURUSD pair will have to break “triangle” shape and then we would expect going down to 1.3740, and therefore a serious strengthening of dollar.



EURUSD

At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. But I consider such variant only in the case if the trend line “b” will be broken, because the pair continues growing efforts and the descending impulse isn’t that strong.
While the pair is situated below “a-a+” trend and “M+” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape) the descending tendency remains. There are 2 resistances at the moment: 1.4840 and the key 1.4875 – one of these will stop the ascending correction. I advise to sell upon breaking of “b” trend line with a target 1.4667 at least. Strategically, I will try hard to grow positions to sell with a target 1.4420.
D1 graph
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20h4.gif


At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20d1.gif



GBPUSD

The pair found its support at 1.9663 and started the ascending correction, which was caused also by descending tendencies over EURGBP. Ascending correction may last until the resistance 1.9868. In the perspective I expect the pair at 1.9396 minimally. But at the moment GBP is a very weak currency and I don’t expect the strict execution of a technical picture from it; that’s why I won’t enter the market with this pair, and I advise the same to you. See also the EURGBP forecast. The resistance is currently at 0.7517.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20h4.gif

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH..._08/eurgbp.gif



USDCHF

Although upon breaking “a-a+” descending trend an ascending trend should start, at H1 a turned “double top” shape has formed. It may force the pair to go down to 1.0810 support, after what the ascending movement will continue at least to the 1.0991 resistance, and strategically to 1.1290 level. Also there is a support at 1.0868 (I forgot to mark it on the graph).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - D1



GOLD

At D1 graph gold is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29.
The targets are certainly cheerful but at the moment gold laid down a correction to 922.49 level, due to the fact that at H1 graph a turned “double bottom” shape has formed, upon breaking its higher bound (“a+”) the correction will surely start.
Also D1 is closed by “dodji” candle, which implies correction by itself.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/04_02_08/gold%20h1.gif - H1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - D1

EURUSD

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20h1.gif


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif




USDCHF

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif




USDJPY

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif




Dollar index

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...2/dxy%20h4.gif

11.02.08

General wiev
This week (11-15.02.08) possible either continuing trend toward consolidation of the dollar or some correction. The last week the pair EUR/USD has been in the «triangle» formation and still will be there some time. The GOLD has formed turn around formation «head & shoulders» and looks like this week its «neck line» will be broken, in this case the GOLD will drop up to 851$ and of course this will be in favor of a dollar.
The correction of the dollar is more possible then its growth starting Monday, but in the long term the dollar will continue growth, this is why who has long term positions to buy a dollar I suggest continue to keep them open.


EURUSD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20h4.gif



USDCHF
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif



USDJPY
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif



GOLD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif



Dollar index (DXY)
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...2/dxy%20h4.gif - H4

(15.02.08)


General view
The market is correcting. The data of “USA Trade balance” was released on Thursday, it turned out much better than it was predicted (–58.8 versus –61.8 forecast) and so most traders expected a vivid movement at the market right at this day, especially taking into account the release of such a good index. However, there was no luck, the movement was suspended after Ben Bernanke’s speech. But that’s the way it’s meant to be, the market can’t move in a single day in the direction of released news, traders should never run out of questions. That’s why a vivid movement will occur on Friday, after the news release, and it will be in favor of dollar.




EURUSD
The pair’s correction continues. On the 4-hours graph an ascending Elliot’s five-waves curve formed, with a final 5th wave at 1.4655 level. From that level I expect the correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend with a target at the lower bound of the “triangle” shape (M) on D1 to 1.4430 level, and further to trend line “G”, 1.4270 level. Breaking of “a-a+” trend will be a confirmation of descending movement’s beginning. On this day (Friday) TICS indicator, a very important indicator for USA, is released. I expect the development of such scenario on this day.
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20h4.gif

Daily
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20d1.gif -daily
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20w1.gif - weekly




GBPUSD
D1 graph shows that the pair is being locked in a range. There’s nothing remarkable happening on H4 graph, except indicators saying that it is time for “a-a+” trend to be broken downwards. Upon its breaking the pair will start a descending movement to specified targets.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20h4.gif
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20d1.gif - D1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20w1.gif - weekly




USDCHF
The pair has a strongly pronounced side trend. It should find the support upon touching the black dotted trend line, then it should forward to resistance at 1.1105. Only breaking of this resistance will confirm the pair’s leaving the range and moving towards target 1.1270.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20w1.gif - weekly




USDJPY
The picture about the pair is turning out neatly from previous forecast: from support 106.63 it went up and broke the “triangle” shape. With its breaking two targets opened: 109.36 and 110.57 – the pair is on its way to them. There’s a possibility of return to the higher bound of “triangle”, level 107.60, from which an ascending movement to specified targets will recommence.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20d1.gif - daily



GOLD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - daily

EURUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5310
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5150, then level 1.5010 and 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5310 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5310, then level 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5520 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif



GBPUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif



USDCHF
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.0415
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0240
2) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.0415, then level 1.0630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 1.0630, then level 1.0240 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go higer 1.0630
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif



USDJPY
1) Descending trend, target of movement 105.60 (102.00)
2) ...
3) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 105.60, then level 107.10 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 107.70, then level 102.00 will become its target
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif - monthly



GOLD
1) Ascending trend, target of movement unknown
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 967, then level 917 will become its target
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif - H4

EUR/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.4955 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.5580 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.4650 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.4910 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.4985

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/eu%20h4.gif

Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/eu%20d1.gif




GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 2.0555 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 1.9400 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.9600 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.9660

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/gu%20h4.gif

Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/gu%20d1.gif



USD/CHF

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.0620 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0000 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670

3) if the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0830 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.0670 the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.0580

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uc%20h4.gif

Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uc%20d1.gif



USD/JPY

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 106.60 will become target

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uj%20h4.gif

Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uj%20d1.gif



GOLD

Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target 917.15
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH..._08/g%20h4.gif