Adequate TP?

here's my problem pippers...
i usally trade on a 15 min chart....trying to follow the trends on EUR/USD, seems a rather non volatile market...compared to the cable....
but i just don't know how high should i put a TP...i mean if i set it to 10 pips..it will get hit in 4 hours for exple....if i set it to 15 maye....20 rather unusal....so you who know what is your target TP usally on 4h trades??
P.s. my stop losses usally are hit 99,9% of the time...and ofc after it gets hit the market does what the trend said it would do...go up for exple.
any ideas? suggestions?

All good questions.
Think of this, volitility is good we don't make pips unless the price moves.
As far as the stopping out goes there is ton's of stuff on the Factory about how to set stops. For example by pip range or behind a barrier like "Pivot Points" or certain levels. Like evrething in 4X there is no 1 or simple answer. Good luck in your search.

hi fxnoob,

does your question is about:
1. what is the common profit that can be gain after 4 hours of trades?
OR
2. what is the common take profit level if you are trading using 4H time period?

If your question is about number 1, it is a bit hard to say because I never limit my trades based on how long it has been in the market, I usually set my exit target on certain indicators signal which I use in my system.

However, for the 2nd question, the tp can range from 80 - 140 pips based on the system that I use, please be advised that this also varies between systems.

And for the SL, if you are trading EURUSD (like I do) I think a good stop loss would be 30 pips, because based on my observations and experience the market rarely reverse direction after it travels for 30 pips especially in 15M (even H1) period.

Hope it helps.
cheers.

Yes, My answer is in two parts.

As to your stop being hit and then the target is reached. You may want to take an average of the range of movement for a 15 minute time frame, using a ATR of say 20 or 30 to give you a good idea of range recently. Then set your stop to be 2 or 3 times that amount. This way for the price to hit the stop, you would know that the price moved abnormally 2 or 3 times the normal amount against your trade. That would be a pretty good indication your trade was not correct for the market.

In regards to the TP question, I would probably place a maximum TP like maybe 4 times the ATR of the 15 min time frame and then also use a trailing stop of of 1 and 1 half ATR. So if the ATR20 for a 15 min time frame were 20 pips, I would set the TP for 80 and the Trailing stop for 30. I would also set the SL for 40 to 60pips.

You could play with these multiples until you found a combination that matched the volatility of the pair you are trading.

This is where you have to be willing to work your ass off if you want it bad enough. Backtesting should automatically pop into your mind at this point.

There are several ways to set a TP. I'll break them up into three categories: Fixed targets, variable targets, and no targets.

Fixed targets are easy, it's what you're doing now. You always use the same TP value, for example, 20. You should be backtesting with multiple values to see whats best for your system. This is very simple and straightforward, all it takes is time to test.

Variable targets get more complicated. This is an attempt to base your targets on what the market is currently showing you. As Scott was saying, one good method of variable targets is ATR based. The average true range of a pair is a very good indication of current volitility. So, in this case, just take the ATR of the pair your're using and multiply it by a constant value to obtain your targets. Since the ATR will always be different for each trade, so will your target. There are so many other ways to do variable targets. Maybe exit your trade when you observe a cross of two moving averages. This is the hardest probably and will require more time to test than fixed targets.

The last type is no target at all. This mainly comes into the picture when you're entering your trades based on a SAR type indication. There can be many different Stop And Reverse systems. For example, lets say you enter a long trade when the MACD crosses above zero. Your exit will occur when the MACD crosses below zero, hence, no target.

Like I said, you have to be willing to work your ass off to find whats right for your entry system. This is how you will become successful. I suggest learning to automate whatever strategy you use. Once its coded you can test multiple exits with the click of a button. I use TradeStation. It can test any "target" you would ever want.

Now for the cliched "hope this helps".