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Breeze....Update on GBP/JPY

  • #841
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:07pm Dec 20, 2007 10:07pm
I think we all gonna be just fine, let's wait for the brake throught that resistANT LEVEL(224.90) AND wait till da London session, where we get some good retail sales #, and patience will pay itself
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #842
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:11pm Dec 20, 2007 10:11pm
Quoting koltri
I think we all gonna be just fine, let's wait for the brake throught that resistANT LEVEL(224.90) AND wait till da London session, where we get some good retail sales #, and patience will pay itself
yep...ure rite...Patience X 3....

Breeze
  • #843
  • Edited 11:31pm Dec 20, 2007 10:44pm | Edited 11:31pm
Hey breeze, I have been waiting for this drop to come and started taking my LONGS from 226.49 and adding on every 250 pips or so, I added another long at 223.99, the next one planned is 221.51 with several more waiting a little further down.

I am expecting the lower trend line near 222 to be reached, which is near the low on the Weekly chart dating 3/4/2007 week at 221 area.

I also have LONG's waiting to trigger down in the 219, and 217 area on the low test from August.

Along with these Long's, I have also started GU long buy in along the way, with the big retracement now in progress, I am expecting GU to come down to 1.9750 and maybe even 1.9550 area before making it's move back upward into the 2's.

Let's be patient this week and see what happens while the US is on a Holiday most of next week, just maybe the interest will attract those bottom feeders to start buying in again, and take us back up over 230 in the coming weeks.

Till then, we will all bleed together. LOL

Ken

Weekly Chart
Fibo levels from the High @ 241.36 to the Low @ 221.26
Todays Low reached 223.55
Retrace 38.2 @ 228.94 (complete)
Retrace 50% @ 231.26 (waiting)
Retrace 61.8% @ 233.68 (waiting) - this is also the upper trend line.

lower trend line would put the price near the 221.26 low of the Fib and a test of the low from the week of Nov. 18th, 2007
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Weekly chart.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #844
  • Dec 20, 2007 11:31pm Dec 20, 2007 11:31pm
Quoting Breeze
I acctually took off my hedges too early....sometimes I get a bad signal of support lvl....so next time I'll be carefull....I'm holding on too brother.....look at your daily channel, it will give you a projection of 231.20

Breeze
Yep too early. I have longs open as well. Checking the daily channel.
  • #845
  • Dec 20, 2007 11:50pm Dec 20, 2007 11:50pm
This is the Line Chart for the GJ Monthly.

The orange areas is the four points of entry:
226.49
223.99
221.51
218.97

This is a strong Historical Consolidation area in Blue.

Also the Lower Trend Line runs right through the buying area in orange, then the 200EMA is coming upwards which the price will find support based on a candle chart view.

As breeze replied, this is a Long term play, so we must prepare the entries now to catch the move up into the 230 area, but at the same time be prepared for some drawdown which can happen quickly with this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ Chart.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #846
  • Dec 21, 2007 12:30am Dec 21, 2007 12:30am
In this chart there is an overall trend downwards with a possibility of continuation in the upper channel if price stalls prior to the lower triangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #847
  • Dec 21, 2007 1:41am Dec 21, 2007 1:41am
Quoting monarch
Hey breeze, I have been waiting for this drop to come and started taking my LONGS from 226.49 and adding on every 250 pips or so, I added another long at 223.99, the next one planned is 221.51 with several more waiting a little further down.

I am expecting the lower trend line near 222 to be reached, which is near the low on the Weekly chart dating 3/4/2007 week at 221 area.

I also have LONG's waiting to trigger down in the 219, and 217 area on the low test from August.

Along with these Long's, I have also started GU long buy in along the way, with the big retracement now in progress, I am expecting GU to come down to 1.9750 and maybe even 1.9550 area before making it's move back upward into the 2's.

Let's be patient this week and see what happens while the US is on a Holiday most of next week, just maybe the interest will attract those bottom feeders to start buying in again, and take us back up over 230 in the coming weeks.

Till then, we will all bleed together. LOL

Ken

Weekly Chart
Fibo levels from the High @ 241.36 to the Low @ 221.26
Todays Low reached 223.55
Retrace 38.2 @ 228.94 (complete)
Retrace 50% @ 231.26 (waiting)
Retrace 61.8% @ 233.68 (waiting) - this is also the upper trend line.

lower trend line would put the price near the 221.26 low of the Fib and a test of the low from the week of Nov. 18th, 2007
Ok......Monarch....lets see if we can pull it through.....theres that 224.90 resistence which is hard to break through.....Damn.

Breeze
  • #848
  • Dec 21, 2007 1:46am Dec 21, 2007 1:46am
Quoting Breeze
Ok......Monarch....lets see if we can pull it through.....theres that 224.90 resistence which is hard to break through.....Damn.

Breeze
I was just chatting with Northpro and told him that it would be nice to break the 224.84 on the hourly here, if we can pass 225, then 226 should come quick.

Let it roll on, we will wait it out.

Ken
  • #849
  • Dec 21, 2007 1:50am Dec 21, 2007 1:50am
Ok.....Merry X Mass all....
Attached Image
  • #850
  • Dec 21, 2007 1:54am Dec 21, 2007 1:54am
Quoting monarch
I was just chatting with Northpro and told him that it would be nice to break the 224.84 on the hourly here, if we can pass 225, then 226 should come quick.

Let it roll on, we will wait it out.

Ken
for all the days that will be holding .....i think we will roll with good INTEREST.

Breeze
  • #851
  • Dec 21, 2007 2:20am Dec 21, 2007 2:20am
looks as if we'll be stuck here for a few days.....

Breeze
  • #852
  • Dec 21, 2007 2:33am Dec 21, 2007 2:33am
Breezelooks as if we'll be stuck here for a few days.....

Breeze

I think Gbp/jpy should have some movement with the GBP retail #s and the US PCE
  • #853
  • Dec 21, 2007 2:49am Dec 21, 2007 2:49am
Quoting ajcrshr
Breezelooks as if we'll be stuck here for a few days.....

Breeze

I think Gbp/jpy should have some movement with the GBP retail #s and the US PCE
No question about that. The only thing that can put the negative GBP trend on hold at the moment are positive retail sales, if they are worse than expected it will be a volatile Friday.
  • #854
  • Dec 21, 2007 3:09am Dec 21, 2007 3:09am
Dear Breeze,
Some guys toldme GBP/JPY will end at 150 next year,why carry trade is over?? My first LONG position is 240.6, can I wait it reach240??
Help me
Ele
  • #855
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:47am Dec 21, 2007 9:47am
Quoting ele
Dear Breeze,
Some guys toldme GBP/JPY will end at 150 next year,why carry trade is over?? My first LONG position is 240.6, can I wait it reach240??
Help me
Ele
Zoran said that the long may go up to 245. but before that it may go up and down, up to 230/231/232 area, move down back and after that up to the target (up and down is normal).

For this moving up, we may see 230/ monthly 5 sma.
  • #856
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:04am Dec 21, 2007 10:04am
Quoting ele
Dear Breeze,
Some guys toldme GBP/JPY will end at 150 next year,why carry trade is over?? My first LONG position is 240.6, can I wait it reach240??
Help me
Ele
Zoran said that the long may go up to 245. but before that it may go up and down, up to 230/231/232 area, move down back and after that up to the target (up and down is normal).

For this moving up, we may see 230/ monthly 5 sma.
  • #857
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:35am Dec 21, 2007 10:35am
Quoting Breeze
I'm down on my knees.....

Breeze
I took my hedge just below my last Fib line. I am thinking what if I had taken it say -50 pips which should be enough to confirm trade that is going against me. Well I'll try that next time to see. Recap I can see that while we were all long we were met with strong resistance at the 228.60 area for about 11 hrs. After this the price took a dive. This might be an area as well that we could have hedge or go short because at that point the market had made up its mind where the price should go. We all bled.

Thanks! Breeze for all the info that you have provided. As you highlighted it seems like hedging is the way to go but also your account should be able to handle those drawdowns just in case i.e the right leverage/pip value must be calculated against possible monthly lows.

Now we are recovering nicely. I was able to add just an extra long and should be + (pluses) at the 226.57 (1hr) where there might be possible retracement.

See my chart with Moving Averages and SMA on the 1 hr. My Trendline only shows a project of approx 200 PIPS starting from where candlestick opens above the line. This confirms with my 1hr MAs (trend in price movement) at 61.8% Fib where 200 PIPS gets you to these points. FYI my daily confirms your projection in the 230s. Will it get there in the next couple of weeks?? I guess I will lock in profits along the way. At this moment I have almost fully recovered and its Friday. LOL.



[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/ADMINI%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fish2007GBPJPY.JPG Size: 126 KB
  • #858
  • Dec 21, 2007 2:05pm Dec 21, 2007 2:05pm
For now, i see in h1, h2 and 15 min charts stoc is overbuy and testing the 50 fib line (226.26). Lets lee if it is break up this line, if so, next line is 226.96, if not it can go to 221.46 . JMO. i had been with Breeze since he was at 229....but my account doesnt support the down...i will waiting till next week to see what will happen. Tks and Merry Xmas for you all.
  • #859
  • Dec 22, 2007 9:18am Dec 22, 2007 9:18am
long @

228.00................active
228.22................active
228.50................active
229.00................active
228.40 X 5...........active
227.50.................active
227.80.................active
226.40.................active
226.80.................active
227.00.................active
225.40.................active

target projection @ 231.00-233.00

Breeze
  • #860
  • Dec 22, 2007 9:41am Dec 22, 2007 9:41am
MERRY X MASS YALL....!!!!!

xxxWith Lots Of Love...
Breeze
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