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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,881
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:27pm Dec 20, 2007 5:27pm
Hoping it will touch 5 SMA Daily close IMO
  • #55,882
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:33pm Dec 20, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting PipChick
Freakin net mafia is after me!!! Keep losing internet connection. M2B...still long with me? Im going to try to hold onto to it until the 50% and hopefully the 61.8. May sell at that point.Good luck on trades everyone....I have to get ready for daughters bday party.
I'm long with ya, PipChick. Taking off 1/2 @ 225.30, holding 1/2 for a 5SMA touch. Good luck!!!
  • #55,883
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:40pm Dec 20, 2007 5:40pm
If geppy climbs over 224.7 i'll be on your boat for the "100 pipos" station.
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #55,884
  • Edited 6:20pm Dec 20, 2007 6:02pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting PipChick
Freakin net mafia is after me!!! Keep losing internet connection. M2B...still long with me? Im going to try to hold onto to it until the 50% and hopefully the 61.8. May sell at that point.Good luck on trades everyone....I have to get ready for daughters bday party.
No. I had to go out earlier and set my SL in profit just above my entry, sooner than I would have liked to, and it kicked me out for a couple of pips. I didn't want this thing pulling any surprises on me while I was out for a few hours. I had set my TP around 224.80, which was just under the 8H 5SMA Low on my charts. I thought the retracement might go to 225 or a bit above. PA has been slow all afternoon in NY. The 15M, 30M and 1H charts have finally broken out of their OS status. The 30M is already OB and the 1H is getting close to OB. The 4H Stochastics hasn't budged from its OS status. All of this seems to tell me that price is probably getting some more ammo in some of the lower TFs to push this thing down to 221.27 before the big move up next week.

Hey, Quecee, I just noticed that the Weekly 5SMA Low is at 223.03 on my charts. So we do have a potential reason for price to only go as low as 223 before shooting back up.

I also see that Aus has just called for a long at 224.50. His Daily Momentum, which updates at 2200GMT, must be bullish. Mine is just now updating. I'll see what it looks like.

M2B
  • #55,885
  • Dec 20, 2007 6:19pm Dec 20, 2007 6:19pm
OK. This is why Aus is no doubt calling for GBP/JPY to go to 225.90. Even my new Daily has opened way underneath the 5SMA Channel, and the 5SMA Low is right around 225.90. If you scroll back on the Daily chart you rarely find a day where a candle opens and closes outside of this channel without touching it. The Daily 1c and 14c Momentums are slightly bullish and the Stoch/RSI indicator is also slightly bullish. I don't see any upward movement beyond that Daily 5SMA Low, "if" it reaches that high. Aus has not stated his reasons for a long call at this level, but I'm quite sure it was based on the new Momentum Strategy he has been testing.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,886
  • Dec 20, 2007 6:40pm Dec 20, 2007 6:40pm
M2B,

Nice work mate, much appreciated - i take notice of what you have to say. Pin bar and stochs overbought on the 1hr USDJPY.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,887
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:03pm Dec 20, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting MMDealer
M2B,

Nice work mate, much appreciated - i take notice of what you have to say. Pin bar and stochs overbought on the 1hr USDJPY.

I don't normally trade it but USDJPY does look like an interesting proposition on the short side looking at the wedge on the 4H chart below and price action on lower TF's. If it does (finally) break the resistance then longs should be in play, dragging GBPJPY up with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,888
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:31pm Dec 20, 2007 7:31pm
Quoting my2buoys
OK. This is why Aus is no doubt calling for GBP/JPY to go to 225.90. Even my new Daily has opened way underneath the 5SMA Channel, and the 5SMA Low is right around 225.90. If you scroll back on the Daily chart you rarely find a day where a candle opens and closes outside of this channel without touching it. The Daily 1c and 14c Momentums are slightly bullish and the Stoch/RSI indicator is also slightly bullish. I don't see any upward movement beyond that Daily 5SMA Low, "if" it reaches that high. Aus has not stated his reasons for a long call at this level, but I'm quite sure it was based on the new Momentum Strategy he has been testing.

M2B
check your pm m2b
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  • #55,889
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:57pm Dec 20, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting my2buoys
OK. This is why Aus is no doubt calling for GBP/JPY to go to 225.90. Even my new Daily has opened way underneath the 5SMA Channel, and the 5SMA Low is right around 225.90. If you scroll back on the Daily chart you rarely find a day where a candle opens and closes outside of this channel without touching it. The Daily 1c and 14c Momentums are slightly bullish and the Stoch/RSI indicator is also slightly bullish. I don't see any upward movement beyond that Daily 5SMA Low, "if" it reaches that high. Aus has not stated his reasons for a long call at this level, but I'm quite sure it was based on the new Momentum Strategy he has been testing.

M2B
great chart t4:30am GBPhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifRetail Sales m/m
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif
0.2%-0.1%
hanks just a reminder.... news at 4:30 am.... until then we may just be grinding it out... and ranging...the asian session may focus on jpy (nikkei) and their view of usd whatever that is for tonight or they may just be waiting on 4:30 am news........but the 4:30 am news may just be what gives us significant momentum and determines the next target.... just a thought
  • #55,890
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:20pm Dec 20, 2007 8:20pm
Hmmm....what are everyone's thoughts as to when this retrace will settle? I think we might actually be towards the top now at 225.00.

We just hit the 50% of the last move down based on my 4 hour charts. With that, I think I will be scaling in shorts once PA indicates a reversal from this point.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,891
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:25pm Dec 20, 2007 8:25pm
I hope so, or ill be stopping myself out and sitting on the sidelines till the news...
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,892
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:35pm Dec 20, 2007 8:35pm
Quoting MMDealer
I hope so, or ill be stopping myself out and sitting on the sidelines till the news...
It looks like it's starting to come down as this is becoming exhausted now. A lot of buyers had their take profits at the 50% and so now I'm looking to see the downside take control again. Could be wrong though.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,893
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:40pm Dec 20, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting mike w
It looks like it's starting to come down as this is becoming exhausted now. A lot of buyers had their take profits at the 50% and so now I'm looking to see the downside take control again. Could be wrong though.
I would like to think you are spot on!

Yeah long story short this is a corrective phase of a strong move down. Retail sales will throw a spanner in the works, and coming up to christmas may be strong. However the figure expected will be seasonally adjusted and hence a surprise to the upside would be less probable.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,894
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:42pm Dec 20, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting MMDealer
I would like to think you are spot on!

Yeah long story short this is a corrective phase of a strong move down. Retail sales will throw a spanner in the works, and coming up to christmas may be strong. However the figure expected will be seasonally adjusted and hence a surprise to the upside would be less probable.
Agreed. I'll post a chart showing why I thought that would be the top other than the fact of drawn out fibs. I love my methodology. lol
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,895
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:44pm Dec 20, 2007 8:44pm
Also, corrective waves are usually 3 waves deep. In this case, we had three waves upwards to create the retracement needed before falling again.

The same deal is happening on the Gbp/Usd and now the Usd/Jpy is having a bearish close. This all is aligning perfectly for another drop in price.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,896
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:49pm Dec 20, 2007 8:49pm
Quoting mike w
Agreed. I'll post a chart showing why I thought that would be the top other than the fact of drawn out fibs. I love my methodology. lol

hey mike ... if its not too much trouble...i would love a pm as to what is on your chart there (i.e. your methodology) as always trying to learn and absorbing like a sponge thanks in advance ...and if not no worries....
  • #55,897
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:50pm Dec 20, 2007 8:50pm
Quoting dagoods
hey mike ... if its not too much trouble...i would love a pm as to what is on your chart there (i.e. your methodology) as always trying to learn and absorbing like a sponge thanks in advance ...and if not no worries....
Fo sho.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,898
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:58pm Dec 20, 2007 8:58pm
Also, loos liek we are going to get a nice pin on the 1hr close... I would think the corrective phase has exhausted itself... But the again, you never know for sure, especially with this pair!
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,899
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:04pm Dec 20, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting MMDealer
Also, loos liek we are going to get a nice pin on the 1hr close... I would think the corrective phase has exhausted itself... But the again, you never know for sure, especially with this pair!
Agreed. The third wave has ended with that pin bar (pinnish bar), and now I think we will have one surge up to test and then drop from here.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,900
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:22pm Dec 20, 2007 9:22pm
i am probably in the minority but i don't think this retrace is over yet. my targets are 225.70 (100ema on 30min chart) to 226.10 area (DR1). shorter Tf's are overbought and may consolidate out of that but the 4hr stoch(8,3,3) has plenty of room to move up and the 1 hr macd is turning up. we coould see a move down to 224.50-60 area then spike up. i bought a small position earlier but closed it w/profit so i am not buying anymore only looking for sell opptys. just my opinion but as always i am ready to do whatever as price dictates.
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