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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,841
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:33pm Dec 20, 2007 2:33pm
Quoting bogus
Im looking to sell at 224.80
224.80 is the area I'm looking to sell up to 225.50 if it gets that high. . .
Karmo, says it could get to 227, I'm not sure how it will get there with GU beat-up. . . I can see if UJ get to 113.50/114 @ GU @ 1.9825 this gives

113.50x1.9825 = 225.013
114.00x1.9825 = 226.000

The above is just theoretical, for my own sanity. . . I guess we could get to 227 if GU made a significant move up. . .
  • #55,842
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:35pm Dec 20, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting quecee5
M2B,

Sorry I didn't answer you sooner, as you know my trading stlye consist of fibs, trend lines, ema and sma. In addition I'm big on pivots. . .
daily support for gj is as follows

s1 = 225.47 (hit)
s2 = 224.35 (hit)
s3 = 222.76 (which I'm calling 223 area) next target

Hope this helps
Thanks, Quecee. As long as you have a reason beyond just 'this is what I'm guessing' then it's all good, whether anyone else agrees with it or not. Pivot points based on trading systems are fine. I just have a hard time with those who just throw out numbers because they think price 'should' go to some mystical point out there in no-man's-land. Price has to have a reason to go where it goes whether it's up or down.

M2B
  • #55,843
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:43pm Dec 20, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting arezab
Thank you bro for being curious. I like to ask and also being asked.
If you refer to my earlier post, I attached a picture with an indicator which uses Moutek system on 4H chart.
I said if price breaks the channel's lower border (which was broken a little bit later), based on this system (which I've found useful and correct most of times) it will fall down to 223.20 area which is the first target and the second target will be 221.16 (which is close to your calculation based on your system: 221.27).

I will be happy to hear any idea about this.

i think we may have already hit your 223.20 area... in mouteki anlysis it helps to "chop off" the top (or bottom) of the candle i.e. the pin part of the swing high or swing low when you calculate your projection.... just my humble opinion... therefore we may be retracing for a while before we ever see target number 2 of of just above 221.16 what you think?
  • #55,844
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:44pm Dec 20, 2007 2:44pm
For the near future the trend is clearly down. I see enough good resistance at224.80 to go short. A couple of trendlines. 50% fib, previous drop off point.I'll just follow the bars, but only south util I see a change of trend on the 1 hour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,845
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:49pm Dec 20, 2007 2:49pm
Quoting PipChick
Here is what I am thininking....Its very possible for this pair to move towards the 61.8 of todays move and then back to the 38.2 of the move from the lo to the 61.8 in order to form an abc pattern to hep push the pair to the 232 area that so many people are talking about.
On the short side, a break of the todays lo would take us to the 221.27 that M2b mentioned.
Just my opinion.
Thxs, so you think we've seen the bottom in other words. . .
I'm going to keep an eye out on this senario and consider buying at the 38.2% fib if it plays out.
  • #55,846
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:50pm Dec 20, 2007 2:50pm
Price action is consolidative at the moment and conducive to a continuation of the main trend (obviously, down). I am on the same page as you guys, however i dont know if it will retrace quite as far as you all think. This may be a biased perspective however, as ive already scaled shorts in!
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,847
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:53pm Dec 20, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting bogus
For the near future the trend is clearly down. I see enough good resistance at224.80 to go short. A couple of trendlines. 50% fib, previous drop off point.I'll just follow the bars, but only south util I see a change of trend on the 1 hour.
bogus,

I see south as well but I'm keeping an open mind.
My reasoning is UJ is actually in a bullish pattern and has been for over a week. UJ could reach as high as 114/115.30/117.xx
GU could retrace back up to 2.0050 before continuing its down trend. (very possible but not likely).
  • #55,848
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:56pm Dec 20, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting MMDealer
Price action is consolidative at the moment and conducive to a continuation of the main trend (obviously, down). I am on the same page as you guys, however i dont know if it will retrace quite as far as you all think. This may be a biased perspective however, as ive already scaled shorts in!
Yeah, you hit it right on the nail yesterday. . .
My original thought was 224.80 however pipchick pointed out 50% and 61.8% fib which is 225.50/226, I'll be watching those levels. . .
  • #55,849
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:59pm Dec 20, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting quecee5
Yeah, you hit it right on the nail yesterday. . .
My original thought was 224.80 however pipchick pointed out 50% and 61.8% fib which is 225.50/226, I'll be watching those levels. . .
Yeah, in an effort to preserve my equity, i may take 20 points or so out of this move (hopefully) and then sideline myself over the asian session - maybe wait for a breach of todays low at 223.60 approx for short(as PipChick stated), or a larger retracement with PA to confirm... you guys certainly know what your talking about. or long if the picture changes...

Cheers mate.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,850
  • Dec 20, 2007 2:59pm Dec 20, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting mike w
I'm still not really a follower of it....with all those conditions being met, is there a buy signal coming soon on it? I just want to see if it coincides with my thoughts right now.
No, for a valid 15min strategy long signal the price has to be above 1hr 100SMA (~ 227.36) and the daily 5SMA close (~ 227.21).


If you choose to ignore these facts, the QQE60 is already crossed upwards and the LSR will switch into long at prices higher than 224.50.
  • #55,851
  • Edited 3:04pm Dec 20, 2007 3:00pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting mike w
I'm still not really a follower of it....with all those conditions being met, is there a buy signal coming soon on it? I just want to see if it coincides with my thoughts right now.
nah all the indicators are just in an oversold level, but as i am sure you know the geepy can stay overbought for days so i am looking more at price and fibs right now then the indicators.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #55,852
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:03pm Dec 20, 2007 3:03pm
Yeah, quite possibly. I'm prepared to miss the pips to the upside just for an easy life. I just prefer to go with the trend. I appreciate everyones thoughts and reasons for them.It helps to look from different angles. I don't like to pick tops ad bottoms anymore.
Quoting quecee5
bogus,
I see south as well but I'm keeping an open mind.
My reasoning is UJ is actually in a bullish pattern and has been for over a week. UJ could reach as high as 114/115.30/117.xx
GU could retrace back up to 2.0050 before continuing its down trend. (very possible). . .
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,853
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:05pm Dec 20, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting moneymagnet
nah all the indicators are just in an overbought level, but as i am sure you know the geepy can stay overbought for days so i am looking more at price and fibs right now then the indicators.
Thats exactly what i was thinking... looking at the 4hr AUS strategy it blurrs my view and shakes up my short bias. However, this thing has clearly got some downward momentum, and GU is, fundamentally speaking, bearish. I read a citibank FX strategy report yesterday that called cable to 1.87 over the next couple of weeks!!! BIIGG call.....
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,854
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:06pm Dec 20, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting moneymagnet
nah all the indicators are just in an oversold level, but as i am sure you know the geepy can stay overbought for days so i am looking more at price and fibs right now then the indicators.
Agreed. Looking to the lower timeframes, I'm on the same note as MMDealer. This, to me, is just consolidation until we get a breakout from the current price. I'm ready to play either way, although I am overall short right now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,855
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:08pm Dec 20, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting MMDealer
Thats exactly what i was thinking... looking at the 4hr AUS strategy it blurrs my view and shakes up my short bias. However, this thing has clearly got some downward momentum, and GU is, fundamentally speaking, bearish. I read a citibank FX strategy report yesterday that called cable to 1.87 over the next couple of weeks!!! BIIGG call.....

That's a little much in my eyes. I could realistically see 1.96, but it would have to move through a lot of support to get to that area.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,856
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:09pm Dec 20, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting bogus
Yeah, quite possibly. I'm prepared to miss the pips to the upside just for an easy life. I just prefer to go with the trend. I appreciate everyones thoughts and reasons for them.It helps to look from different angles. I don't like to pick tops ad bottoms anymore.
Yeah I hear ya. . .
I decided to ride UJ up to 113.50/114 instead of GJ to make life easier
I'll catch GJ going down once I see it has topped out. Better to sit over there and watch while making pips
  • #55,857
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:11pm Dec 20, 2007 3:11pm
Some, last minute buying going on so that the big biys can earn interest
  • #55,858
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:13pm Dec 20, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting mike w
That's a little much in my eyes. I could realistically see 1.96, but it would have to move through a lot of support to get to that area.
A little too much? Hell yeah... i cant see it getting down there in a hurry. I would love to see it to 1.96 though!
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,859
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:14pm Dec 20, 2007 3:14pm
I wish Aus was here to share his input on the price action.
  • #55,860
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:16pm Dec 20, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting MMDealer
A little too much? Hell yeah... i cant see it getting down there in a hurry. I would love to see it to 1.96 though!
You may see it @ 1.97xx l8ter today if it breaks 1.98 support area. . .
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