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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,701
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:11am Dec 20, 2007 3:11am
wow....that's a distant i should say. im too new to forex that i do not have such confident to short that long...i should limit it at 223.00 then...hmmm...
  • #55,702
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:17am Dec 20, 2007 3:17am
Quoting dagoods
thanks! how would you use it?
well, my method is I enter long when the price swing nears channel's lower line on 4H (of course not until I see confirmation on lower TF's) and vice versa for short entries ... Certainly this can not be the only tool to decide to enter and exit trades, you have to use other tools beside this. I use RSI oversold and overbought conditions on 4H and also divergences in lower TF's like 1H and 30M to confirm trend reversal.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #55,703
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:25am Dec 20, 2007 3:25am
So ... the trend depends on the GDP ... let's see what comes out
  • #55,704
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:35am Dec 20, 2007 3:35am
Quoting MMDealer
Quecee...

Nice mate i like it. Ive restablished shorts as per the charts shown below. i think we just saw the rally in which to sell... thats just my opinion...

This has been a very profitable couple of days. Cmooonn!!! (Im Australian)
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,705
  • Dec 20, 2007 4:03am Dec 20, 2007 4:03am
Quoting arezab
here you are ...
it is really great, thanx bro.
  • #55,706
  • Dec 20, 2007 4:26am Dec 20, 2007 4:26am
Quoting arezab
well, my method is I enter long when the price swing nears channel's lower line on 4H (of course not until I see confirmation on lower TF's) and vice versa for short entries ... Certainly this can not be the only tool to decide to enter and exit trades, you have to use other tools beside this. I use RSI oversold and overbought conditions on 4H and also divergences in lower TF's like 1H and 30M to confirm trend reversal.
Dear Arezab,

On 4 hour, on gy, i see that we are in the low of the channel

Thnaks for this indi, very very interesting
  • #55,707
  • Dec 20, 2007 4:50am Dec 20, 2007 4:50am
Looks like the shorts are doing well, good luck to everyone trading this morning.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,708
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:02am Dec 20, 2007 5:02am
Quoting crashout
Dear Arezab,

On 4 hour, on gy, i see that we are in the low of the channel

Thnaks for this indi, very very interesting
yes but as I said, only touching the channel's lower border does not mean to enter Long. we should also consider that this channel can change itself based on price reaction over time because this indicator is dynamic. We should wait until we see a bounce with the confirmation of other indicators like RSI in lower TF's like 1H and 30M and also pay attention to hidden or classic bullish divergences that verify trend reversal.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #55,709
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:43am Dec 20, 2007 5:43am
On the 15minute chart, I see the 11:15 (mt4 time or 6:15am EST))candle with bullish divergence.. is it so?
  • #55,710
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:50am Dec 20, 2007 5:50am
Quoting blastoffnow
On the 15minute chart, I see the 11:15 (mt4 time or 6:15am EST))candle with bullish divergence.. is it so?
You can't just have a straight move downwards. There are going to be bullish bars to create retracements before moving lower again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,711
  • Dec 20, 2007 6:01am Dec 20, 2007 6:01am
Quoting arezab
yes but as I said, only touching the channel's lower border does not mean to enter Long. we should also consider that this channel can change itself based on price reaction over time because this indicator is dynamic. We should wait until we see a bounce with the confirmation of other indicators like RSI in lower TF's like 1H and 30M and also pay attention to hidden or classic bullish divergences that verify trend reversal.
Absolutely
  • #55,712
  • Dec 20, 2007 6:09am Dec 20, 2007 6:09am
Is it safe to say that we won't be seeing 230 or even 229 anymore this year?
  • #55,713
  • Edited 7:08am Dec 20, 2007 6:54am | Edited 7:08am
Quoting vinesh2
Is it safe to say that we won't be seeing 230 or even 229 anymore this year?
Price will reach 223.68 before this week is out, and possibly go as low as 221.27. By the end of next week we will see 232.40.

M2B

Edit- There's a possibility that 224.70 will indeed hold price from going any lower this week. It is the 61.8 Fib on the Weekly Chart from the last major move up. The last four hourly candles have attempted to breach this line but have failed to close beneath it. An hourly close beneath it will drive price to at least the 223.68 level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,714
  • Dec 20, 2007 7:30am Dec 20, 2007 7:30am
Looks like GU is headed all the way down to 9571 levels.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1198156799
  • #55,715
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:30am Dec 20, 2007 8:30am
Quoting my2buoys
Price will reach 223.68 before this week is out, and possibly go as low as 221.27. By the end of next week we will see 232.40.

M2B

Edit- There's a possibility that 224.70 will indeed hold price from going any lower this week. It is the 61.8 Fib on the Weekly Chart from the last major move up. The last four hourly candles have attempted to breach this line but have failed to close beneath it. An hourly close beneath it will drive price to at least the 223.68 level.
M2B,
I Have stops from yesterday @ 224.50---I'm hoping 224.70 will hold. I am considering moving stop to 223.25 to give a little more room. This would put me slightly outside of my MM parameters, but not a big problem. However, below 221 would be a big problem. Of course, I will make my own decesion---just wondering how strongly you feel about breaching your 223.68 level. I would prefer not to stop out (obviously) as I feel strongly about the 230's next week or 1st week of new year. Thanks for all of your great posts!!!
  • #55,716
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:38am Dec 20, 2007 8:38am
Quoting FX-Petra
M2B,
I Have stops from yesterday @ 224.50---I'm hoping 224.70 will hold. I am considering moving stop to 223.25 to give a little more room. This would put me slightly outside of my MM parameters, but not a big problem. However, below 221 would be a big problem. Of course, I will make my own decesion---just wondering how strongly you feel about breaching your 223.68 level. I would prefer not to stop out (obviously) as I feel strongly about the 230's next week or 1st week of new year. Thanks for all of your great posts!!!
Usually a bad idea to move stops to conform to price action. It also depends on your money managment.Just my opinion.When this lo of today breaks, its hard telling how lo she will go.
  • #55,717
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:45am Dec 20, 2007 8:45am
700 pips to 232 from the current location. Do you really think this is a possibitly in one week? There are not too many siginificant market moving news coming out. I am not sure if I agree with you.
  • #55,718
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:48am Dec 20, 2007 8:48am
Quoting FX-Petra
M2B,
I Have stops from yesterday @ 224.50---I'm hoping 224.70 will hold. I am considering moving stop to 223.25 to give a little more room. This would put me slightly outside of my MM parameters, but not a big problem. However, below 221 would be a big problem. Of course, I will make my own decesion---just wondering how strongly you feel about breaching your 223.68 level. I would prefer not to stop out (obviously) as I feel strongly about the 230's next week or 1st week of new year. Thanks for all of your great posts!!!
Most TFs are currently OS on Stochastics, which is why I edited my last post about price possibly halting its downward movement at 224.70. It has continued to be persistent in its pummeling of this line. The 1 hour chart is now showing the sixth straight hourly attempt to break through it. I don't honestly see price breaching the 223.68 area today. If it does go that low today we should see a decent retracement before price moves down again to the 221.27 area, which could happen by Friday. I would watch the hourly chart to see if we get a close beneath the 224.70 area. As I write this I see new lows being hit. I think 223.68 is going to be hit within the next hour or so before price bounces up.

M2B
  • #55,719
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:54am Dec 20, 2007 8:54am
Anyone have any suggestions on other pairs which still have a connection to the equity markets? This one has disconnected. Not just because we are +60 on the Dow and it continues to fall today, it has been happening for a couple of weeks now. The equity connection is what attracted me to this pair, and now that is gone.
  • #55,720
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:56am Dec 20, 2007 8:56am
Quoting vinesh2
700 pips to 232 from the current location. Do you really think this is a possibitly in one week? There are not too many siginificant market moving news coming out. I am not sure if I agree with you.
I know it's a long shot from a fundamental perspective. I'm just looking at it from a technical perspective based upon the Monthly Momentum. And of course we all know that if any pairing is capable of posting up to 1000 pips in one week it would be GBP/JPY. I know, everyone says there are skeleton crews running all the hedge funds and what not during this period of time at the end of the year, liquidation is low, not much movement is going to happen. It is during low liquidity times that volatility can be rampant. You never know. That's why I posted the chart. I'm not just throwing a number out there as a pie-in-the-sky guess. The monthly chart shows the potential for that kind of movement before the month closes, which happens to be the end of next week. And we also have confluence at that level in the form of a 100 Fib on the Daily chart and the 50EMA on the Weekly chart. Let's see what happens.

M2B
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