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  • #861
  • Jan 1, 2007 11:57pm Jan 1, 2007 11:57pm
Quoting williamk
Howdy hk334,

I suggest you read my post # 816 if you want to know what we are all talking about. After you have read it then I and others will answer your questions. The traders on this forum don't mind helping other traders because thats our slogan"Traders helping Traders" but not if they are not willing to do the work themselves which means reading the post that the traders before you have left for you. After they have spent endless hours and days doing. Remember anything unearned is unappreciated.

What good is the Holy Grail if your not willing to read it.

If thats the case put your $$$ with a mutal fund or a money manager and save yourself the time and aggravation that WILL come with trading yourself.

Fellow Pip Hunter

Bill
Your first and second sentences answered my Q (Where to look) everything else was an assumption and those are simply wrong. Perhaps you needed to vent but I don't see that I am your target for that.
  • #862
  • Jan 2, 2007 3:26am Jan 2, 2007 3:26am
Quoting fijitrader
FT
I have been reading through this and other threads in FF and as I do I find your specificity to simply be amazing! I suspect something from my own fumblings in the market and the next day I find a well thought out and kindly presented note regarding what I had almost forgotten from the day before. The accuracy of the data is a joy but timely and serendipitous presentations make me wonder how it is that you are looking over my shoulder or listening to my mutterings! Thanks and PLEASE do continue.
  • #863
  • Jan 2, 2007 4:05am Jan 2, 2007 4:05am
Quoting fijitrader
A self proclaimed "honest" person who admits to being greedy and stupid then delivers a completely baseless piece of rhetoric which indicates that he thinks we are stupid enough to give credence to baseless accusations.

BeachBum you said it so much better than I. I deleted the guy's original post but I could not bring myself to mess with your post since you nailed it so eloquently.

Probably though -- you didn't have to explain that you are not connected with VP. We know that you are a paying customer.

Also thanks for your great posts about your approach to trading with VP. You have saved me a lot of typing and managed to get across ideas similar to what I'd have said -- only you did it better than I would have.

FT
This guy sounds like a carpenter I used to know. He was constantly complaining about his table saw being VERY difficult to use. The complaints stopped when he found out the saw is ELECTRIC. Do you think the guy put VP in his computer?
  • #864
  • Edited 9:44am Jan 2, 2007 4:10am | Edited 9:44am
[quote=fijitrader][quote=bluemeasure]
"Indeed I think day trading VP requires a market feel that includes a sense of trend and related reversals to get up to speed quickly. I'm pretty confident that with some work (like you've been doing) the discretion can be defined by rules."

Off the top of your head what percentage of trading is "feel" and what is "system" as a number? ------------------------
  • #865
  • Jan 3, 2007 10:18am Jan 3, 2007 10:18am
I wanted to ask if all of you had trouble updating VP last night.... I currently use CSI Data.....

Cant wait to start the year!

PEDRO
  • #866
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:26am Jan 3, 2007 11:26am
I wish to do something that many may find objectionable. I wish to redefine the name of what it is that most of us do prior to or as part of trading The current name is; Technical Analysis. The name I am suggesting is Technical Evaluation. The reason I suggest this is in the definitions below. These are from the dictionary in MSFT Works. Some may think that is an oxymoron but I have used this pgm for many years and like it. I evaluate I am not interested in analysizing any chart. If I am stepping on someones toes by this I appoligize before hand. Definitions are important to me as they provide a basis for actions. I make this suggestion because I am very interested in the value I may find in the charts not the content of the charts. They all pretty much have the same stuff in them. I am including this in the VP thread because this is where I recognized the misnomer.

Evaluation

assessment of value: the act of considering or examining something in order to judge its value, quality, importance, extent, or condition

Encarta World English Dictionary & (P) 1998-2005 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

Analysis

1. close examination: the examination of something in detail in order to understand it better or draw conclusions from it

2. separation into components: the separation of something into its constituents in order to find out what it contains, to examine individual parts, or to study the structure of the whole

3. assessment: an assessment, description, or explanation of something, usually based on careful consideration or investigation

4. mathematics branch of mathematics: the branch of mathematics dealing with differential calculus, functions, and limits

Encarta World English Dictionary & (P) 1998-2005 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
  • #867
  • Jan 3, 2007 7:50pm Jan 3, 2007 7:50pm
Pedro,

VP wont update if it doesnt have price data from all of the "intermarkets" it uses to make its predictions. Many markets were closed on Tuesday due to President Ford's funeral, therefore VP didnt generate any reports.

Bill
Quoting pedrop
I wanted to ask if all of you had trouble updating VP last night.... I currently use CSI Data.....

Cant wait to start the year!

PEDRO
  • #868
  • Jan 3, 2007 8:02pm Jan 3, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting TraderBill
Pedro,

VP wont update if it doesnt have price data from all of the "intermarkets" it uses to make its predictions. Many markets were closed on Tuesday due to President Ford's funeral, therefore VP didnt generate any reports.

Bill
The markets were not closed but closed early.
I had no issues with downloading csi data for FX spot markets.
  • #869
  • Jan 4, 2007 2:37am Jan 4, 2007 2:37am
Quoting pedrop
I wanted to ask if all of you had trouble updating VP last night.... I currently use CSI Data.....

Cant wait to start the year!

PEDRO
I had no trouble at all BUT... see below. I trade overnight
M/T 6 Trades 4 winners total 125 pips using VP N.I. primarily Not Bad

T/W 7 Trades using only VP N.I. for direction all loosers. That Sucked for this I used nothing but VP N.I. I won't be doing that again. Yesterday I used a prior trend determinater (feel + MA's + MA gap, widening or narrowing in several time periods. So I think this had something to do with results being as good as they were. I have been trading GBP/USD for a year now with little or no experience with other pairs.

W/Th 5 trades using BB's 4 out 5. all winners twice actually because the 5 went to about 65 pips up by 7 PM PST. Then went negative about 5 pips and reversed and eneded up 100 + pips Biggest winners GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Small winners USD/CAD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF. Discretionary exits and immediate entries after EVAl. I am most familiar w/GBP/USD and GBP/JPY So my "feel" may be influencing results.

As you can see from my other posts I am opinionated. Iam also vocal about my opinions. Hopefully I won't have to be admitting I wrong about anything ever again! Enjoy
  • #870
  • Edited 7:34am Jan 4, 2007 6:18am | Edited 7:34am
FYI,
Being on holidays and in Australia, I tried downloading CSI data for VP at 4:45pm Chicago time (when I am normally at work) and lo and behold, it was there and complete. This surprised me as this is 105 minutes before I am told that the data would be ready to download, but FT (or was it BB) was right when he mentioned early access to the EOD reports.
I did not have to twig any settings on the EzDownloader.

PS BB have been using your suggested 4 out of 5 indicators to confirm trade as mentioned by HK334 and find this good. Had success yesterday with it, but never got to the data early enough today. had i been early enough I would have picked up the bulk of the drop in GBPUSD.
Cheers,
Frank
FrankieB
  • #871
  • Jan 4, 2007 6:48pm Jan 4, 2007 6:48pm
I currently get my data from Genesis. Earliest I can get it is usually around 6:35 PM EST and many times not until 6:45 PM EST. Would like comments from other VP users regarding data provider and update time.

I wanted to short GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY tonight but by the time I got the data from Genesis to confirm the trade with VP, I had missed 25 pips on one and 50 on the other.

Now the bottom is dropping out on both these pairs and I'm left to sit here lamenting what could have been.

Bill
  • #872
  • Jan 4, 2007 8:03pm Jan 4, 2007 8:03pm
Quoting TraderBill
I currently get my data from Genesis. Earliest I can get it is usually around 6:35 PM EST and many times not until 6:45 PM EST. Would like comments from other VP users regarding data provider and update time.

I wanted to short GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY tonight but by the time I got the data from Genesis to confirm the trade with VP, I had missed 25 pips on one and 50 on the other.

Now the bottom is dropping out on both these pairs and I'm left to sit here lamenting what could have been.

Bill
Bill, I also get my downloads and exports using Genesis Trade Navigator. Generally around 6:30pm EST - 7:00pmEST. Sometimes, its true, that the data download is late and I miss the moves that my vantagepoint strategy would have indicated, but that is not often. Most times Genesis is fantastic for my VP strategy trades. I have more than one strategy anyway, so I was able to take advantage of the EUR/JPY drop. When ever I miss a good move due to late downloads, I just tell myself that trades are a dime-a-dozen....there'll be another setup right around the corner.

No worries Bill, and no "lamenting what could have been". There'll be another good trade before you know it.
  • #873
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:07am Jan 5, 2007 4:07am
Trader Bill,
Can I suggest some other methods I have also found useful to confirm ideas of trades. I find the 4hr system of Vanessa FX on this site very useful to see changes and plan. I check the 30min, then the 60min, then 4hr. I can tell from the MAs in that time frame if there is a change. I wait a while till it appears for a few bars in the hour frame, and that tells me there is something in the wind, and can expect it to turn up in the 4hr within the next 4-8 hours and to be ready. Depending on the strength of the change in the 30 min, I will not wait till I see it in the 4hr chart to trade it.
Another confirming tool I find useful is the Guppy Multi-Moving Average.
This has a variety of data that can be extracted from it, including trend or trading? And whether, when there is a correction and there is a penetration through long-term MAs as to whether the strength of the support of long-term investors is there or whether they are changing position and moving in the opposite direction to what they had before.
Combined with VP, they are an excellent arsenal, and in the event of no data for VP, they are just as good a confirmation for a trade.

If you load these tools onto a MT4 chart and have a look at the JPY yesterday, you will see what I am talking about. Compare the difference in the time charts and see when you would have made the decision to trade it. A lot of people without VP would have made money on the JPY in the last few days. When I was exiting my positions this morning from Interbank FX, they were so busy, I was blocked out. It took some time to clear my positions. And I expect the server was running hot with people covering their short positions. I expect many of them did not have VP but they were on the right side of the move.
So use VP for sure, but don't depend on it.
Have a look at these other tools too.
FrankieB
  • #874
  • Jan 6, 2007 2:34pm Jan 6, 2007 2:34pm
Thanks for the words of encouragement baddison and Frank. Baddison, did you get some erronious price data from Genesis for the 12-25 and 12-26 price bars for AUD pairs? Closing prices for 12-26 seem to be accurate but the lows and highs for the pairs are way off. For example AUD/USD price data from Genesis:

12-25-06: O=.7840, H=.8052, L=.7822, C=.8050
12-26-06: O=.7894, H=.7894, L=.7808, C=.7812

I even tried downloading update again today all the way back thru 12-22 but still have the incorrect data for 12-25 and 12-26 for AUD pairs.

Bill
  • #875
  • Jan 6, 2007 8:46pm Jan 6, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting TraderBill
Thanks for the words of encouragement baddison and Frank. Baddison, did you get some erronious price data from Genesis for the 12-25 and 12-26 price bars for AUD pairs? Closing prices for 12-26 seem to be accurate but the lows and highs for the pairs are way off. For example AUD/USD price data from Genesis:
Bill
Data varies from vendor to vendor. I just tried to square ATR Average True Range between FXDD, IBFX, and (CRB for VP -which corrects a lot - bad data to start with).

FXDD ATR was high (57), IBFX was low (49) and CRB (53) was in the middle for the same day. That is why backtesting data should be done with an offline sample from one vendor.

Unless it was off considerably, I would just think the differences that are probably normal because their sources are different.

Cyclone
Cyclone
  • #876
  • Jan 6, 2007 9:07pm Jan 6, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting Cyclone
Data varies from vendor to vendor. I just tried to square ATR Average True Range between FXDD, IBFX, and (CRB for VP -which corrects a lot - bad data to start with).

FXDD ATR was high (57), IBFX was low (49) and CRB (53) was in the middle for the same day. That is why backtesting data should be done with an offline sample from one vendor.

Unless it was off considerably, I would just think the differences that are probably normal because their sources are different.

Cyclone
Brokers have different close times. That affects any ATR calculation.
It doesn't necessarily mean there are any errors.
  • #877
  • Jan 7, 2007 12:16am Jan 7, 2007 12:16am
Hi.

I am a newbie here and a newbie to forex trading. Like all newbies I am looking for the right tools to trade successfully. I discovered Vantage Point from a Google search which led me to this newgroup and this thread by FijiTrader.

I note it is currently 59 pages long and there are 876 posts so far!

I have started by reading FT's summary of VP on another thread (encouraging). I am now starting to read the posts on this thread but, in the meantime, the salesman from Vantage Point is pretty keen to get an answer out of me - buying or not?

I'm sure others of you have been through all this before, done your due diligence on this product and could probably point me to the most salient posts to read before I wade through all 59 pages of this thread.

I am also curious to know if those of you who already have VP could confirm whether VP accurately forecast the movement of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on Friday? Mainly because I went backwards in my positions and would like to know if having VP would have assisted me to make a better call.

Any other advice would be appreciated.

Kind regards
Gavin
  • #878
  • Jan 7, 2007 1:47am Jan 7, 2007 1:47am
Do NOT let a salesman push you around.............
do your due diligence, the system will be there when you are ready, if not ..... you saved yourself some money.

There are several good systems here that are free and prbably outpreform vp
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #879
  • Jan 7, 2007 2:23am Jan 7, 2007 2:23am
Quoting bluemeasure
Deecos,

I'm glad to have been of help; I was looking at a bunch of spreadsheets for a number of hours last night and couldn't come up with an explanation for the discrepencies, so it's good to know that you were able to track down the cause of the error and I look forward to your revised numbers.

foggyTrader,

A few weeks ago, I ran a similar test to what you describe having done in your spreadsheet (I've just had a quick look at it). I actually went a step further by also using the DX (Dollar Index) predictions to further filter any currency pairs crossed with the USD as predictions were more reliable that way (e.g. EURUSD and DX are negatively correlated to a factor of almost -1). I also agree with you that knowing what the current trend is definitly helps in making better use of VP's predictions.

My initial findings for e.g. the EURUSD were as follows (for the same historical data of 84 trading days as above)

1) # of days where PTSDiff & PTMDiff are both down and the PTSDiff & PTMDiff for the DX both up
29

- of these how many was the Plow hit? (i.e. actual low was lower than Plow)
10

2) # of days where PTSDiff & PTMDiff are both up and the PTSDiff & PTMDiff for the DX down:
25

- of these how many was the Phigh hit? (i.e. actual high was higher than Plow)
7

Good trading,
BlueMeasure
I have a question regarding the days where the pair v. DX were at odds. Which did the next day favor ( DX or pair) and did either dominate in the results?? If you have already considered this please ignore the question! Thanks for your efforts If nothing else occurs you have "opened doors" I did not know were there!
  • #880
  • Jan 7, 2007 3:09pm Jan 7, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting moonchild
Thank you BeachBum. In fact, I have read the thread in its entirety. This still leaves me with a feeling of true uncertainty. I know of very few things in life which are 80% in any respect. That does include crystal balls.

I imagine that it will still be a challenge to come up with a good system to use the information. I imagine that I will have to wrestle with that.

I am getting my new brokerage account funded today so that I will actually be able to place trades when I want to rather than when the broker wants me to. At least I hope that it will work that way with this new broker.

I would imagine that my biggest problem is not being willing to believe anything that I am told any more. I read but it does not necessarily reassure me and I am not certain what will. Uncertainty has never been a problem of mine until very recently.

Wish me luck.
Gaining certainity on anything is not always easy! Gaining certainity on an area where you have total freedom and responsibiltiy is frequently a lifetime activity. This uncertainity, I have found can be lessened and controlled by taking the proposed action/activity and breaking it down into ALL its parts. I took the action of making a trade and continued to break that down until I could not find any smaller "pieces". Once I had my list I put it into the proper sequence of events and began educating myself on each of the various steps until I had gained certainty on the first. Then I moved onto the second,third etc. As this process began I found that I had "forgotten" to include a number of things sso I had to rewrite the list and start over again. I have been doing this for some months and I have yet to complete my list. It has grown quite a bit. When I began the list I had no idea that it would have more than twenty items on it. My certainity has grown in the area because I had to face and define what a trade is: for myself to myself and by myself. The penalty for not doing this had been in the past $$$$$$$$$$$. I made $22,000.00 in 4 days on a little stock called Sirius Satillte radio. It took me a couple of months to pay it back to the market because I did not have the discipline and understanding to actually be a success. Twenty items to make a single trade? Try it! you may/will learn something!
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