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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,641
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:21pm Dec 19, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting quecee5
Looking at the 4hr chart and drawing fibs from 221-230 looks like GJ could see a run down to 225.79/80's before another run up for 100 pips. Anyone, else seeing that?

Anyway, I'm long from 225.95 will pick up more if we get to 225.80. TP is 227.10/20 area, from there I'm short for a run down to 224/223 area. . .

Feedback welcome. . .
I am long as well @ 226.15. We are, IMHO, at a critical place on GU and UJ. GU has finally broken 2.000....so now what? It continues to hover around that number. Today's move down was based on intrest rate expections. It will take some time to know if we will be sub 2.000 into the future or if the uptrend will resume. UJ is also trying to break 113.50, but so far unable. USD is stonger across the board for most of the week.
There are may things to play out in the comming days, but the point is that both GU and UJ are at extremes---in opposite directions. I beleive GU will steady/bounce slightly and UJ will break through 113.50. Net affect of GJ should be up from here (maybe down as low as 225.80). I have 3 TP areas, 227.10, 228.30, and back up at 230.20. Stop @ 224.80 below bottom of daily pitchfork.
  • #55,642
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:29pm Dec 19, 2007 1:29pm
cable is a little bit confused ))) let's see
  • #55,643
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:31pm Dec 19, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting dagoods
work was postponed till 4 pm so you unfortunately have to put with me a while longer but trying to predict a reversal and trading against ttrend is what you all told me not to do....but i am your slave and you are the master so...... LOL
Smart A%$@^#^ - ROTFLMAO. . .

Well, I've always said trade what you see according to your trading style which many on this thread have, different trading styles that is. . .

Waiting for the confirmation for me would have cost me 40 pips and counting. I have other methods I use to make quick decisions that don't always rely on indicators because most of them are lagging behind. Anyway, I'm glad you stick to your methods as I think that is the best way to learn and become a discipline trader. . .
  • #55,644
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:45pm Dec 19, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting quecee5
Smart A%$@^#^ - ROTFLMAO. . .

Well, I've always said trade what you see according to your trading style which many on this thread have, different trading styles that is. . .

Waiting for the confirmation for me would have cost me 40 pips and counting. I have other methods I use to make quick decisions that don't always rely on indicators because most of them are lagging behind. Anyway, I'm glad you stick to your methods as I think that is the best way to learn and become a discipline trader. . .

the eur usd can give us verall direction of the usd in general methinketh (it usually does) so maybe some of you all seniors can give analysis of PA eur/usd and from there we can see what usd/jpy may do in coming days/weeks and then we have better big picture? thoughts welcome.... what i see on eur/usd is... was in big uptrend until that big weeekly pinbar formed...on daily chart... also a nice pinbar showing downtrend continuing...8 hour shows confluence of support and possible pinbar showing we may retrace up on eur/usd for a bit if it holds as true pinbar which is yet to be determined..... same on 4 hour...
so if eur/usd goes up then what happens?
  • #55,645
  • Edited 2:33pm Dec 19, 2007 2:02pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I am long as well @ 226.15. We are, IMHO, at a critical place on GU and UJ. GU has finally broken 2.000....so now what? It continues to hover around that number. Today's move down was based on intrest rate expections. It will take some time to know if we will be sub 2.000 into the future or if the uptrend will resume. UJ is also trying to break 113.50, but so far unable. USD is stonger across the board for most of the week.
There are may things to play out in the comming days, but the point is that both GU and UJ are at extremes---in opposite directions. I beleive GU will steady/bounce slightly and UJ will break through 113.50. Net affect of GJ should be up from here (maybe down as low as 225.80). I have 3 TP areas, 227.10, 228.30, and back up at 230.20. Stop @ 224.80 below bottom of daily pitchfork.
Great points,
Right now, I'm a little skeptical of going long beyond 228. . . Unless I see price surge above the daily pivot (228.40's) I still favor bearish down to your stoploss of 224.50 or lower. .

The reason I say this is, GU seems to be in a serious downtrend headed toward 1.9800's and much lower. Unless it can get back above 2.0000 1st and 2.0050 (broken trendline) I believe the uptrend has ended at 2.110 and everything else we've been seeing (up) has been corrections. . .

The other thing that has me a bit nervous is UJ still has the ability to float within its channel (115.50/112.50/70). I do believe UJ trend is up however, I also think we'll see it touch 112.50/70 before it break the 114/114.50 mark and continue higher. . . I've been shorting UJ above 113.50 for 50, 60, 70 pips and then buying back and selling @ 113.50 all week. I don't believe there is enough volume in this thin market to push UJ price thru the 114/114.50 resistance to get to 50% fib and higher. If UJ reaches 114 that will be a good shorting opportunity for me down to the lows. . .

Anyway, thanks for your input and insight. . .
  • #55,646
  • Edited 2:44pm Dec 19, 2007 2:23pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting dagoods
the eur usd can give us verall direction of the usd in general methinketh (it usually does) so maybe some of you all seniors can give analysis of PA eur/usd and from there we can see what usd/jpy may do in coming days/weeks and then we have better big picture? thoughts welcome.... what i see on eur/usd is... was in big uptrend until that big weeekly pinbar formed...on daily chart... also a nice pinbar showing downtrend continuing...8 hour shows confluence of support and possible pinbar showing we may retrace up on eur/usd for a bit if it holds as true pinbar which is yet to be determined..... same on 4 hour...
so if eur/usd goes up then what happens?
UJ has continued to trade above the daily pivot on average so I wouldn't be surprised to see it challenge 114 l8ter today. Don't think it will break above it, may try to touch 114.50 but there is heavy resistance in that area. . .

That's the only way I see GJ having a chance of a 50% retracement from the 250 pip drop. The only other way is GU would have to challenge the broken trendline @ 2.0050 which could prove to be difficult since it appears to be in a serious downtrend.

The highest I see GJ price would be 227.20 possibly 228.04 to trigger stops above, and to me that may be a stretch - JMHO. . .
If GJ price is to go any higher that would mean GU would have to move up significantly and UJ would have to trade much higher than current levels. . .

Just a little bit of my flawed thinking for you to pounder. . .

I'm looking to short GJ on any rallies as well as UJ if it doesn't break 114/114.50 resistance. . .

Lets see how this plays out.
  • #55,647
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:59pm Dec 19, 2007 2:59pm
Quecee...

Nice mate i like it. Ive restablished shorts as per the charts shown below. i think we just saw the rally in which to sell... thats just my opinion...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,648
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:01pm Dec 19, 2007 3:01pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I am long as well @ 226.15. We are, IMHO, at a critical place on GU and UJ. GU has finally broken 2.000....so now what? It continues to hover around that number. Today's move down was based on intrest rate expections. It will take some time to know if we will be sub 2.000 into the future or if the uptrend will resume. UJ is also trying to break 113.50, but so far unable. USD is stonger across the board for most of the week.
There are may things to play out in the comming days, but the point is that both GU and UJ are at extremes---in opposite directions. I beleive GU will steady/bounce slightly and UJ will break through 113.50. Net affect of GJ should be up from here (maybe down as low as 225.80). I have 3 TP areas, 227.10, 228.30, and back up at 230.20. Stop @ 224.80 below bottom of daily pitchfork.
Petra,
I noticed your stop i at 224.80. I have a 100% fib at 224.78 of the last move up on the 4 hr. It may come right to the 78-80 and bounce. Maybe you would want to put your stop a little lower.
  • #55,649
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:02pm Dec 19, 2007 3:02pm
The hourly close was bearish. It was a pin, although it wasn't protruding any real price and so I wouldn't place too much emphasis on it. That just shows that the upside will probably be limited for the moment.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,650
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:21pm Dec 19, 2007 3:21pm
Great analysis there as always. With all said and done, the path of least resistance through which I see GJ higher even with GU below 2.0 is UJ above 117......For example..117 x 1.99 = 232.83. Fundamentals are painting a slightly rosy picture for UJ...the coming days will show..

Good night all..Trade Well
  • #55,651
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:34pm Dec 19, 2007 3:34pm
Wow. This is some great info here I trade the GBPUSD and GBPJPY everyday and this is becoming a huge help with my stratagy!

thanks for all who have helped

M4X
M4X............ Hedging My Way To Profits!
  • #55,652
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:35pm Dec 19, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting PipChick
Petra,
I noticed your stop i at 224.80. I have a 100% fib at 224.78 of the last move up on the 4 hr. It may come right to the 78-80 and bounce. Maybe you would want to put your stop a little lower.
I will look at it, PipChick....thanks for the heads up. 224.80 is just 20 pips below the Pitchfork low on the daily chart. We have yet to touch the Median line since the low in November. I think I will move the stop to 224.50, considering the 100 fib.
  • #55,653
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:38pm Dec 19, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting forexnovice
Great analysis there as always. With all said and done, the path of least resistance through which I see GJ higher even with GU below 2.0 is UJ above 117......For example..117 x 1.99 = 232.83. Fundamentals are painting a slightly rosy picture for UJ...the coming days will show..

Good night all..Trade Well
forexnovice,

GJ may go higher longer term, my analysis was referring to the next couple of sessions, which I'm now convinced GJ will at least reached 227.18 at a minimal if it continues to trade above/near the 4hr pivot of 226.60. . .

The question is how we get there, thru an up move from UJ or GU or a combination of both. . . I think we'll see it mainly from a UJ up move.

Lets see how it plays out. . .
  • #55,654
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:40pm Dec 19, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I will look at it, PipChick....thanks for the heads up. 224.80 is just 20 pips below the Pitchfork low on the daily chart. We have yet to touch the Median line since the low in November. I think I will move the stop to 224.50, considering the 100 fib.
224.50 is what I see as well and will be my TP from any short from GJ up move rallies. . .

Good luck all, this slow/thin market is like watching grass grow man!
  • #55,655
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:40pm Dec 19, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting quecee5
The other thing that has me a bit nervous is UJ still has the ability to float within its channel (115.50/112.50/70). I do believe UJ trend is up however, I also think we'll see it touch 112.50/70 before it break the 114/114.50 mark and continue higher. . . I've been shorting UJ above 113.50 for 50, 60, 70 pips and then buying back and selling @ 113.50 all week. I don't believe there is enough volume in this thin market to push UJ price thru the 114/114.50 resistance to get to 50% fib and higher. If UJ reaches 114 that will be a good shorting opportunity for me down to the lows. . .

Anyway, thanks for your input and insight. . .
quecee5,

I'm a little confused by this portion of your reply. Initially you say that UJ is trending upwards and that it will break 114/114.50 and higher (after possibly touching lower levels first) but then a few sentences later you explain how there is not enough volume currently to push UJ through the 114/114.50 resistance and that you would short once it reached 114. Are you saying that during the next few hours, because of the lack of liquidity, we will not see it break through but in the longer run it is trending upwards?
  • #55,656
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:47pm Dec 19, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting MMDealer
Quecee...

Nice mate i like it. Ive restablished shorts as per the charts shown below. i think we just saw the rally in which to sell... thats just my opinion...
MMDealer,

I think we'll probably see GJ a bit higher, I'm shooting for 226.18/20 area. . . Typically but not always, the Asian session seems to always want to take prices higher so if it seen we'll probably see it there. . .

After that I'll be looking for a nice short set-up as I see GU trading another leg lower in the upcoming sessions. . .

JMHO but all the technicals are sure there -
Trade what you see and trade wise!
  • #55,657
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:52pm Dec 19, 2007 3:52pm
Once we hit 227, I'll be looking to post some shorts. Obvious reasons for why once you look at the chart. Well, I'll be posting shorts once we get solid PA to indicate a reversal back down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 227.gif Size: 11 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,658
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:54pm Dec 19, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting fer
im long a small position from 226.46. target- 227.36 and stop loss 226.15.

bye
fer
just checked my trade in closed orders. profit target hit yesterday. i think i got lucky by 1 pip. the high it made was 227.37 and my profit target was 227.36. ( for a moment i though i was stopped out). well another 90 pips for me.
im still bullish biased from here. that trendline is still holding.

fer
  • #55,659
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:56pm Dec 19, 2007 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by fer http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
im long a small position from 226.46. target- 227.36 and stop loss 226.15.

bye
fer

Quoting quecee5
I see support @ 226.48. 226.24 and 225.96. . . Right now it looks trading above 4hr pivot at 226.53

I still see 226.84 as 1st target before any down moves. If it get above next target 227.25. . .

thanks for that input quecee. i feel very lucky that profit target got hit just shy of 1 pip. i was expecting it to go higher to 227.55, hence i had kept profit target at 227.36 for 90 pips. just glad it got hit.

fer
  • #55,660
  • Edited 4:13pm Dec 19, 2007 4:00pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
quecee5,

I'm a little confused by this portion of your reply. Initially you say that UJ is trending upwards and that it will break 114/114.50 and higher (after possibly touching lower levels first) but then a few sentences later you explain how there is not enough volume currently to push UJ through the 114/114.50 resistance and that you would short once it reached 114. Are you saying that during the next few hours, because of the lack of liquidity, we will not see it break through but in the longer run it is trending upwards?
That's exactly what I'm saying. . .
In other words, we may see a UJ move up to challenge the 114/114.50 area which is part of the uptrend channel. If it fails I see possibly moving back down to the lower channel which is 112.50/60 area. . .

If there is a break above then UJ will have 38% fib support. The next target would be to take out 114.50 resistance for move toward 50% fib @ 115.60/70 and higher.

Currently I think it will move thru the channell which is typical however any significant move up with follow thru will probably be seen after the New Year with heavier volume. . . JMHO!

These are my thoughts, please trade what you see. I'm looking for constructive feedback to show why this isn't a possibility. I also would like feedback from any GU bulls why you feel it is not in a serious downtrend.

Thanks in advance. . .

Hope this helps. . .
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