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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,621
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:06am Dec 19, 2007 11:06am
Quoting dagoods
may i ask what your strategy would be then? for me i see this but i am just newb so.... it appears that once gu settles down and comes to resistance it will be great opportunity to buy and hold for 300 pips at least???? any help on strategy much appreciated

Wow, total meltdown of GU. . .
Anyway, I would be skeptical chasing this one on a buy as is has broken significant medium term support. Although 1.9925/30 should be the low for the NY session, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one lower l8ter today (London session).
  • #55,622
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:11am Dec 19, 2007 11:11am
Quoting dagoods
may i ask what your strategy would be then? for me i see this but i am just newb so.... it appears that once gu settles down and comes to resistance it will be great opportunity to buy and hold for 300 pips at least???? any help on strategy much appreciated
Are you holding a long position?

And by 'resistance' you are actually refering to support. Study the Monthly, Weekly and Daily GU charts. Both the weekly and daily charts show the short term trend as bearish. Do you want to trade against the trend?

On the fundamental front today's MPC Meeting Minutes show that more rate cuts are imminent. Also, the housing and banking crisis prevalent in US has spread to UK as well.

Hope I made myself clear because I dont believe you can trade my strategy or I yours. Trade what you see, not what you think or others say.

Sounds a bit lame but always try to "Plan your trade and trade your plan". And Dont forget that all important STOPLOSS. It is there to protect you from further losses if applied with Proper Money Management. You will find a lot of articles on MM in the Beginners section of FF. Good Luck Trading
  • #55,623
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:19am Dec 19, 2007 11:19am
Quoting forexnovice
Are you holding a long position?

And by 'resistance' you are actually refering to support. Study the Monthly, Weekly and Daily GU charts. Both the weekly and daily charts show the short term trend as bearish. Do you want to trade against the trend?

On the fundamental front today's MPC Meeting Minutes show that more rate cuts are imminent. Also, the housing and banking crisis prevalent in US has spread to UK as well.

Hope I made myself clear because I dont believe you can trade my strategy or I yours. Trade what you see, not what you think or others say.

Sounds a bit lame but always try to "Plan your trade and trade your plan". And Dont forget that all important STOPLOSS. It is there to protect you from further losses if applied with Proper Money Management. You will find a lot of articles on MM in the Beginners section of FF. Good Luck Trading

thanks for the input appreciated i sold my gu long for profit last night in asian session.... i took sto buy and stop sell orders before i went to bed on gj and gu in anticipation of news making some bigger moves ...i alwasy use MM and sl thanks....worked out very nice... i am just trying to find direction fom here and learning as always.... no idont want to trade against the bigger trend.... thats why i am asking i will await signals of course... my orignal mouteki analysis some time ago at pinbar break of 228.95 suggested gj down to 226.44 it has now hit that and i am thinking maybe time to consider long again to 230-231 when i get new signals.... but i am aware current trend is down...and i am patient.... her is uj as i see it so far.... any thought on uj? queece..as always thanks for your help.... i may have held my gu long if it werent for you! any thought on uj?
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  • #55,624
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:43am Dec 19, 2007 11:43am
Quoting dagoods
thanks for the input appreciated i sold my gu long for profit last night in asian session.... i took sto buy and stop sell orders before i went to bed on gj and gu in anticipation of news making some bigger moves ...i alwasy use MM and sl thanks....worked out very nice... i am just trying to find direction fom here and learning as always.... no idont want to trade against the bigger trend.... thats why i am asking i will await signals of course... my orignal mouteki analysis some time ago at pinbar break of 228.95 suggested gj down to 226.44 it has now hit that and i am thinking maybe time to consider long again to 230-231 when i get new signals.... but i am aware current trend is down...and i am patient.... her is uj as i see it so far.... any thought on uj? queece..as always thanks for your help.... i may have held my gu long if it werent for you! any thought on uj?
Really glad to hear that Note pa around 113.5 area on UJ 4hr charts.
  • #55,625
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:50am Dec 19, 2007 11:50am
Closed my shorts at 226... starting to open longs.

R

Quoting Rocroy
Yep, same here, short at 229.8 and below...

Hopefully if falls all the way to 226 trendline. Target 225.92 - 161 fib level! Does not look like it at the moment, but who knows???

R
  • #55,626
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:53am Dec 19, 2007 11:53am
I have Q about something I came across last night. Looking for input. For the last couple of weeks, after the last good fall gbp had from 244.xx to 219.45 everyone has been talking about the nature of the beast to make a retrace back to the 50% fibo. But if you look on the daily chart (where the red arrow is) right after the fall, it did make a retrace back to it. Is it possible that it has already done so, and there for won't be making it back there again?
Thanks in advance, any input is appreciated!

fxstman
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  • #55,627
  • Dec 19, 2007 11:55am Dec 19, 2007 11:55am
Quoting forexnovice
Really glad to hear that Note pa around 113.5 area on UJ 4hr charts.
gotcha thanks! gj price seems to be testing lower tl supportat check mark i notice a penetration but not a break = my theory it may (turn resistance of current down trend) or at least lower pf line (blue) may turn resisitance of current down trend...sorry for confusion... I am hoping as it would make for a nice trade upon confirmation.... but i will trade what i see

i have another question... since we have broken some major support on gu here should we be looking at higher tf (weekly/monthly) charts for guidance then???? if so what do you all see?
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  • #55,628
  • Edited 12:27pm Dec 19, 2007 12:00pm | Edited 12:27pm
Quoting dagoods
thanks for the input appreciated i sold my gu long for profit last night in asian session.... i took sto buy and stop sell orders before i went to bed on gj and gu in anticipation of news making some bigger moves ...i alwasy use MM and sl thanks....worked out very nice... i am just trying to find direction fom here and learning as always.... no idont want to trade against the bigger trend.... thats why i am asking i will await signals of course... my orignal mouteki analysis some time ago at pinbar break of 228.95 suggested gj down to 226.44 it has now hit that and i am thinking maybe time to consider long again to 230-231 when i get new signals.... but i am aware current trend is down...and i am patient.... her is uj as i see it so far.... any thought on uj? queece..as always thanks for your help.... i may have held my gu long if it werent for you! any thought on uj?
dagoods, glad to hear you made a profit from your GU trade as I knew you would have appropriate MM and stops in place. . . It's always, good to analyze the big picture to determine the overall trend then key in on smaller TF's for intraday trading. . .

As for UJ, it seem to be trading in it's new uptrend channel for now which is typical. The new channel seems to be from 115.50 to 112.50/60. I think 113.50/60 is a good selling point down to 112.50 and vice versa. . . I think we'll see a break to the upside in UJ shortly to challenge 114/114.50 and 50% fib but maybe after the New Year!

I also, believe we'll see GU challenge 2.0090/100 if it manages to get back above 2.0000. I think a lot of what we were seeing is profit taking in a very thin market as well as some panic selling. . .

So where does that leave GJ, well with a declining GU it has a long way to go to get back up above the daily pivot @ 228.40, 4 hr pivot is @ 226.53 so lets start there. . If it gets back above the pivot we may see GJ retest the highs @ 227.25 or so. . . if we see GU continue to decline the next target for GJ is 225.40's then 224.80's. . . 224.80 was where it bounced last Tues when we had the big sell off due to US rate decision. 225.40' was major support that next day before the uptrend started toward 230.30's. . . A break of 224.80's would open the door to 223's and lower. . .

Since it is triple interest wed. I favor a trip back to test the highs of today and possibly (l8ter) before anymore down moves. . .

edited the UJ channel

115.50 to 112.50
  • #55,629
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:11pm Dec 19, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting quecee5
dagoods, glad to hear you made a profit from you GU trade as I knew you would have appropriate MM and stops in place. . . It's always, good to analyze the big picture to determine the overall trend then key in on smaller TF's for intrady trading. . .

As for UJ, it seem to be trading in it's new uptrend channel for now which is typical. The new channel seems to be from 113.50/60 to 112.50/60. I think 113.50/60 is a good selling point down to 112.50 and vice versa. . . I think we'll see a break to the upside in UJ shortly to challenge 114/114.50 and 50% fib but maybe after the NY. . .

I also, believe we'll see GU challenge 2.0090/100 if it manages to get back above 2.0000. I think a lot of what we were seeing is profit taking in a very thin market as well as some panic selling. . .

So wher does that leave GJ, well with declining GU it has a long way to go to get back up above the daily pivot @ 228.40, 4 hr pivot is @ 226.53 so lets start there. . If it gets back above the pivot we may see GJ retest the highs @ 227.25 or so. . . if we see GU continue to decline the next target for GJ is
225.40's then 224.80's. . . 224.80 was wher it bounced last Tues when we had the big sell off due to US rate decision. 225.40' was major support that next day before the uptrend started toward 230.30's. . . A break of 224.80's would open the door to 223's and lower. . .

Since it is triple interest wed. I favor a trip back to test the highs of today (l8ter) today before anymore down moves. . .

you rule! someday my goal is to be able to see all of that like you do .... for now it's learn learn learn thanks so much... unfortunately have to go to work today so ... I am out of all trades (bummer) see you all later...good luck!
  • #55,630
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:12pm Dec 19, 2007 12:12pm
Quoting Rocroy
Closed my shorts at 226... starting to open longs.

R

MY MAN! YOU RULE TOO! woohoo can u post your chart so i can see the tls you are working off of?
  • #55,631
  • Edited 12:41pm Dec 19, 2007 12:24pm | Edited 12:41pm
Nice one dagoods, that was officially an 'A trade'. They don't come around often enough.

With the bearishness of GBPUSD and the drop in GBPJPY today, have we actually broken out of the wedge that we've been stuck in for the last few weeks? The sky blue line on my chart which had been tested several times as support appears to be broken, but we have not dropped as significantly as I had thought upon the violation of this line. Price is now settled upon the median line of the pitchfork represented by the thick blue line, just below the longstanding trendline. I'm bearish, but I'm not quite convinced that we might not head back up into the wedge.
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  • #55,632
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:37pm Dec 19, 2007 12:37pm
UJ is finishing it's 5th wave in it's uptrend and I am guessing will go down soon. I am a rookie .....trying to sound edumicated!
  • #55,633
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:40pm Dec 19, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting rosssurf
UJ is finishing it's 5th wave in it's uptrend and I am guessing will go down soon. I am a rookie .....trying to sound edumicated!
And your point is?????
  • #55,634
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:51pm Dec 19, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting quecee5
And your point is?????
It'll bring the Gbp/Jpy down with it when it drops.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,635
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:55pm Dec 19, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting mike w
It'll bring the Gbp/Jpy down with it when it drops.
  • #55,636
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:55pm Dec 19, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting rosssurf
UJ is finishing it's 5th wave in it's uptrend and I am guessing will go down soon. I am a rookie .....trying to sound edumicated!
Let's see a chart then McNulty.
  • #55,637
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:05pm Dec 19, 2007 1:05pm
Looking at the 4hr chart and drawing fibs from 221-230 looks like GJ could see a run down to 225.79/80's before another run up for 100 pips. Anyone, else seeing that?

Anyway, I'm long from 225.95 will pick up more if we get to 225.80. TP is 227.10/20 area maybe higher, could see it possibly going up to 227.64, nor more than 228.04 tops. Up there I'm short for a run down to 224/223 area. . .

Feedback welcome. . .
  • #55,638
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:10pm Dec 19, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting quecee5
Looking at the 4hr chart and drawing fibs from 221-230 looks like GJ could see a run down to 225.79/80's before another run up for 100 pips. Anyone, else seeing that?

Anyway, I'm long from 225.95 will pick up more if we get to 225.80. TP is 227.10/20 area, from there I'm short for a run down to 224/223 area. . .

Feedback welcome. . .

check bird t's chart above...if that medain line holds as support i thin your tps are great and i'm with you wating for 4 hour candle to confirm..would like to see nice 4 hour pinbar b4 going long but what do i know i learn from you not the other way around
  • #55,639
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:11pm Dec 19, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting dagoods
check bird t's chart above...if that medain line holds as support i thin your tps are great and i'm with you wating for 4 hour candle to confirm..would like to see nice 4 hour pinbar b4 going long but what do i know i learn from you not the other way around
Thought you were going to work?
  • #55,640
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:18pm Dec 19, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting quecee5
Thought you were going to work?

work was postponed till 4 pm so you unfortunately have to put with me a while longer but trying to predict a reversal and trading against ttrend is what you all told me not to do....but i am your slave and you are the master so...... LOL
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