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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,601
  • Dec 19, 2007 8:35am Dec 19, 2007 8:35am
Quoting my2buoys
Man, I missed that 50 Fib mark at that level. I had that Fib drawn a while ago but I took it off to unclutter my charts after the old high of 229.32 had been breached. Thanks for bringing it back to our attention.

M2B
We have our mate Karmo to thank for drawing our attention to the 50fib
  • #55,602
  • Dec 19, 2007 8:40am Dec 19, 2007 8:40am
Here's another Fib I had taken off earlier to unclutter my charts. This one shows price hitting the 61.8 Fib perfectly. I still see more potential downward movement, but that Fib level gives price a good reason to stop there and consolidate or possibly reverse back up. If price were left dangling in the middle of nowhere, like it was when it hit its most recent high of 230.35, then I would say it would have to definitely move to its next downward point of support. I still think price has to go back up and touch that upper 50 Fib at 231.30, to rectify that dangling price, before it determines its next major move. Based upon the Monthly momentum chart which I posted a few pages ago, we could see that happen as early as next week.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #55,603
  • Dec 19, 2007 8:47am Dec 19, 2007 8:47am
Fed will publish its new auction results in a few minutes. I'm not quite sure what to look for. I know if the auction was successful it could be equity and carry positive...vice versa if unsuccessful. I do not know how success or failure will be measured, as this is the first report of its kind. Does anyone have any insight on this? Thanks in advance for any replies.
  • #55,604
  • Dec 19, 2007 8:55am Dec 19, 2007 8:55am
Quoting fer
im long a small position from 226.46. target- 227.36 and stop loss 226.15.

bye
fer
I see support @ 226.48. 226.24 and 225.96. . . Right now it looks trading above 4hr pivot at 226.53

I still see 226.84 as 1st target before any down moves. If it get above next target 227.25. . .
  • #55,605
  • Dec 19, 2007 8:57am Dec 19, 2007 8:57am
Quoting fer
im long a small position from 226.46. target- 227.36 and stop loss 226.15.

bye
fer
I see you are still using this thread as your personal trading diary!
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #55,606
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:02am Dec 19, 2007 9:02am
Guys....Guys....lets not start it all over again. There is a "Ignore Button' in everyone's profile. Just activate it and get back to trading.
  • #55,607
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:05am Dec 19, 2007 9:05am
Quoting Globalprofits
I see you are still using this thread as your personal trading diary!
lol
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #55,608
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:06am Dec 19, 2007 9:06am
Quoting FX-Petra
Fed will publish its new auction results in a few minutes. I'm not quite sure what to look for. I know if the auction was successful it could be equity and carry positive...vice versa if unsuccessful. I do not know how success or failure will be measured, as this is the first report of its kind. Does anyone have any insight on this? Thanks in advance for any replies.

To put it into perspective, it was just $20bn (which would look pretty good in my bank account admittedly) but the $500bn worth of Euro that was injected by the ECB had little effect, so why would $20bn. The effects had already been priced in IMO, and if anything the equities market appeared to be unimpressed. Plus, we should consider how much this pair has become disconnected from the equities market in recent days, with poor figures coming from Merrill Lynch increasing the scope for further losses and writedowns for other finaincial powerhouses in the new year, yet the Dow has barely moved, let alone GBPJPY. FF only rates the auction report as mildly important so I'm not going to pay that much attention to it.
  • #55,609
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:11am Dec 19, 2007 9:11am
Quoting karmostaji
Price is bouncing off the Daily gann hilo, I don't think it'll go lower for now unless we get some kind of sell-off or something.

I'm just waiting for 30m QQE to cross upwards and a candle to form above the gann to go long, I'll load more when the 1H QQE crosses upwards and a good TP would be the 4H gann hilo.
Price just bouncing off from the 1H gann, 2nd or 3rd try should take it out and once we get a candle above 1H gann, longs should be safe until 4H gann.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,610
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:15am Dec 19, 2007 9:15am
Price has bounced off that 4H lower trendline for the the 3rd/4th time now, if it goes all the way this time, it should be able to touch the 50% fibo which is 231.30. This is something I'll keep in mind, but trade what the chart/indicators are telling me
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,611
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:18am Dec 19, 2007 9:18am
Quoting karmostaji
Price has bounced off that 4H lower trendline for the the 3rd/4th time now, if it goes all the way this time, it should be able to touch the 50% fibo which is 231.30. This is something I'll keep in mind, but trade what the chart/indicators are telling me
http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/7074/gjmf1.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,612
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:31am Dec 19, 2007 9:31am
Quoting my2buoys
Here's another Fib I had taken off earlier to unclutter my charts. This one shows price hitting the 61.8 Fib perfectly. I still see more potential downward movement, but that Fib level gives price a good reason to stop there and consolidate or possibly reverse back up. If price were left dangling in the middle of nowhere, like it was when it hit its most recent high of 230.35, then I would say it would have to definitely move to its next downward point of support. I still think price has to go back up and touch that upper 50 Fib at 231.30, to rectify that dangling price, before it determines its next major move. Based upon the Monthly momentum chart which I posted a few pages ago, we could see that happen as early as next week.

M2B
I have same fibs drawn on another chart taking this months low-223.69 into consideration. However, many times I have seen price dangle between 61.8 & 78.6 fib before turning around, hence I like to look at pa from all possible fib levels. PA on 6th & 7th of this month was a good example of this. Monthly 5smaC=232.70..next week probably..
  • #55,613
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:34am Dec 19, 2007 9:34am
[quote=karmostaji;1766831]

Thanks Karmo for the Chart.
  • #55,614
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:48am Dec 19, 2007 9:48am
Quoting forexnovice
I have same fibs drawn on another chart taking this months low-223.69 into consideration. However, many times I have seen price dangle between 61.8 & 78.6 fib before turning around. PA on 6th & 7th of this month was a good example of this. Monthly 5smaC=232.70..next week probably..
If the 'dangling' is a result of a news spike then I don't consider it to be a true 'dangle'. I'm not sure if that was the case earlier this month. However, if there is a genuine 'dangle', then I will remove those Fibs and revert back to the Fibs from the previous move up or down which supercedes that one IMO, and just consider the 'dangle' to be a part of price action in the middle of price trying to move to its next Fib level from the previous move. It's the only way I can justify price not achieving certain Fib levels which I have drawn on my charts. I think price always has to have a reason for stopping and reversing at the points it does, otherwise trading becomes a total guessing game. If price 'dangles' in a certain spot between two points I have drawn, then those current points (Fibs) I have drawn are not as important to price as I thought, but rather price is looking past them to the Fib levels of the previous move. Sorry, I know this will sound confusing to some, especially noobs, but a true Fib geek will understand what I am trying to explain.

M2B
  • #55,615
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:53am Dec 19, 2007 9:53am
[quote=sieb_ila;1766854]
Quoting karmostaji

Thanks Karmo for the Chart.
my 2 cents check mark is lower trendline and new pf may formed reco= when price retreats to lower fork and lower tl consider buy bottom pf line and bottom tl and let price bounce back up toward mean for what its worth.... any help suggestions appreciated
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,616
  • Dec 19, 2007 9:59am Dec 19, 2007 9:59am
Quoting my2buoys
I know this will sound confusing to some, especially noobs, but a true Fib geek will understand what I am trying to explain.

M2B
Hey m2b, noob here.
No, that made a lot of sense! Thanks for the explanation.
  • #55,617
  • Edited 10:34am Dec 19, 2007 10:29am | Edited 10:34am
Ding ding ding !!

Kble 2.000

GLOUPS !

GLOUPS !!
  • #55,618
  • Dec 19, 2007 10:33am Dec 19, 2007 10:33am
Geeez! how low are we going on the GJ
  • #55,619
  • Dec 19, 2007 10:38am Dec 19, 2007 10:38am
Quoting my2buoys
If the 'dangling' is a result of a news spike then I don't consider it to be a true 'dangle'. I'm not sure if that was the case earlier this month. However, if there is a genuine 'dangle', then I will remove those Fibs and revert back to the Fibs from the previous move up or down which supercedes that one IMO, and just consider the 'dangle' to be a part of price action in the middle of price trying to move to its next Fib level from the previous move. It's the only way I can justify price not achieving certain Fib levels which I have drawn on my charts. I think price always has to have a reason for stopping and reversing at the points it does, otherwise trading becomes a total guessing game. If price 'dangles' in a certain spot between two points I have drawn, then those current points (Fibs) I have drawn are not as important to price as I thought, but rather price is looking past them to the Fib levels of the previous move. Sorry, I know this will sound confusing to some, especially noobs, but a true Fib geek will understand what I am trying to explain.

M2B
A bit confused by what you refer to as a 'true dangle'.

From a fundamental point of view, news and rumors are what move this market almost always. Earlier this month GBP fell after negative HBOs House Price Index followed by a negative Services PMI dragging GJ with it. Price consolidated in that range for almost 2 days before heading up.

Ultimately it boils down to just a lot of (un-)educated guesses about what the market might be doing(as SeekingLight says in Lazy Analysis thread) with TA determining our entries and exits. I try to keep it as simple as possible
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,620
  • Dec 19, 2007 10:47am Dec 19, 2007 10:47am
Quoting forexnovice
A bit confused by what you refer to as a 'true dangle'.

From a fundamental point of view, news and rumors are what move this market almost always. Earlier this month GBP fell after negative HBOs House Price Index followed by a negative Services PMI dragging GJ with it. Price consolidated in that range for almost 2 days before heading up.

Ultimately it boils down to just a lot of (un-)educated guesses about what the market might be doing(as SeekingLight says in Lazy Analysis thread) with TA determining our entries and exits. I try to keep it as simple as possible
may i ask what your strategy would be then? for me i see this but i am just newb so.... it appears that once gu settles down and comes to resistance it will be great opportunity to buy and hold for 300 pips at least???? any help on strategy much appreciated
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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