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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,501
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:55am Dec 18, 2007 10:55am
For anyone following the 5sma channel, price just touched Daily 5sma-lo @ 227.8.
  • #55,502
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:56am Dec 18, 2007 10:56am
As long as price is below 4H Gann, I'm short biased and it seems 1H QQE is about to cross downwards.. we'll know for sure in 4 mins.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,503
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:05am Dec 18, 2007 11:05am
Quoting quecee5
Can you post the trendline info. you posted last week. I can't find it on FF. . .
Also, if you information on pitchforck trendlines can you post that as well?

Thxs in advance - Quecee5

the problem with pitchforks is there is not much helpful info out there and thus they are very subjective....but what i am learning is that you can use them and draw them with a bit more confidence IF they line up with your prvious support resistance leverls AND they describe price.... I am trying to learn as I go without much direction on them..... as you know I am just learning....

on another note I would think now may be a good time to buy the gu at 2.0139 as it most likely will bounce off of daily support??/ I would appreciate your input...

also another note on mouteki is DO NOT USE mouteki projections on tp as roycoy pointed out and others on this thread fibs etc. are much beteer for projecting tps would love your input
  • #55,504
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:10am Dec 18, 2007 11:10am
Quoting dagoods
excellent thank u! here is the tl info i had taken from ff mouteki thread...i have found that mouteki( which is simply a thomas demark tool) is useless unless you are 4 hour tf or above.... on higher tfs then it is a good tool as it basically gives you a good confirmation of pa and lets you draw a new tl to work off of... you start from right to left which is very cool in anticipating price based on pa..... anyway... you can go to mouteki thread or google search but here is some of what i have saved...most of the stuff i just printed and cant post...
Thxs!
  • #55,505
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:23am Dec 18, 2007 11:23am
I am bearish on USD/JPY beacuse we have butterfly pattern on daily chart and also when you everywhere read how dollar will get stronger counter trend that's reason to go short All my technical indicators on 4h and 1 day are showing bear. Anyone agree?
  • #55,506
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:24am Dec 18, 2007 11:24am
Quoting karmostaji
As long as price is below 4H Gann, I'm short biased and it seems 1H QQE is about to cross downwards.. we'll know for sure in 4 mins.
Hi Karmo, how was your final exam? How is it like when you finish the university?
  • #55,507
  • Edited 11:40am Dec 18, 2007 11:25am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting dagoods
the problem with pitchforks is there is not much helpful info out there and thus they are very subjective....but what i am learning is that you can use them and draw them with a bit more confidence IF they line up with your prvious support resistance leverls AND they describe price.... I am trying to learn as I go without much direction on them..... as you know I am just learning....

on another note I would think now may be a good time to buy the gu at 2.0139 as it most likely will bounce off of daily support??/ I would appreciate your input...

also another note on mouteki is DO NOT USE mouteki projections on tp as roycoy pointed out and others on this thread fibs etc. are much beteer for projecting tps would love your input
Yeah, I think "good ol" fib fan/lines and trend-lines are the most reliable when projecting price and determing entry/exits points. I use trendlines a lot using parallel points based off of lows in an up trend and highs in a down trend. What I end up with is basically a "waffle pattern" that end up giving support levels on lower TF and resistance on HTF (well depending on the bigger trend). Typically it correlates to a combination of S&R sma's/ema's and fib line. . . Very helpful for me gives me the big picture all in one as I scroll thru various TF's. . .

Anyway, GU, I think still has a bit lower to go. I believe you'll see it crack the 2.0100 area down to 2.0065/2.000. I would wait until then to see how it holds up before buying. Once it bottoms out I think we'll see a retreat back to 2.0300/0400 area, my 2 cents on that. . .
  • #55,508
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:26am Dec 18, 2007 11:26am
Any idea on how low are we going on this run. My 4Hr Stoch and RSI are all pointing down. I am still holding on to my longs from 228.50 and 228.15
  • #55,509
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:28am Dec 18, 2007 11:28am
Quoting mijamoto
I am bearish on USD/JPY beacuse we have butterfly pattern on daily chart and also when you everywhere read how dollar will get stronger counter trend that's reason to go short All my technical indicators on 4h and 1 day are showing bear. Anyone agree?
Yep, been shorting since 113.50 area. . .
1st target 112.50's/60's, will see how it price holds up once it gets down to that level. . .

Also, looking to buy GJ once it gets down to 227/226.50 area, if it gets there - LOL!
  • #55,510
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:30am Dec 18, 2007 11:30am
Quoting mamr
Hi Karmo, how was your final exam? How is it like when you finish the university?
Hi bro, finals were good elhamdellah , I'm very exhausted and honestly I still can't really believe it's over lol.. I still feel like I'm gonna wake up next day and go to univ..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,511
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:31am Dec 18, 2007 11:31am
Quoting vinesh2
Any idea on how low are we going on this run. My 4Hr Stoch and RSI are all pointing down. I am still holding on to my longs from 228.50 and 228.15
I've got long position open from 228.45,but i think as long as we are above 227.50 we've got some chance lol
  • #55,512
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:50am Dec 18, 2007 11:50am
Quoting I.Y.I
I've got long position open from 228.45,but i think as long as we are above 227.50 we've got some chance lol
Looks to me to be headed to touch 227.30's, maybe lower later today. . .
Just my two cents!
  • #55,513
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:57am Dec 18, 2007 11:57am
queece,

Do have thoughts about GU breaking the daily uptrendline @ 20450? Line has not been violated in over 2 yrs. Just wondering.
  • #55,514
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:13pm Dec 18, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting quecee5
Looks to me to be headed to touch 227.30's, maybe lower later today. . .
Just my two cents!
Maybe,we'll see about it.I've got sl at 237.45 anyway.
  • #55,515
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:14pm Dec 18, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting FX-Petra
queece,

Do have thoughts about GU breaking the daily uptrendline @ 20450? Line has not been violated in over 2 yrs. Just wondering.
Not suggesting that at all, however if we see a bottom at ar'd 2.0050/2.0000 we should see it challenge (pre BOE announcement levels) at the very least 2.0350/2.0380's area. . . A break above could challenge falling trend line resistance (on 4hr chart) @ 2.0480's/90's area if it gets that high. . .
  • #55,516
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:21pm Dec 18, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting karmostaji
Hi bro, finals were good elhamdellah , I'm very exhausted and honestly I still can't really believe it's over lol.. I still feel like I'm gonna wake up next day and go to univ..
Congrats Bro!!!! Looks like nothing going on still on the geppy.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #55,517
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:27pm Dec 18, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting I.Y.I
Maybe,we'll see about it.I've got sl at 237.45 anyway.
It needs a close above the daily pivot to have any chance of retracing up to r1/r2. . . A close above it sees 229 area again!
  • #55,518
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:28pm Dec 18, 2007 12:28pm
Give us a picture FX.

According to the TL's/channels that I've drawn we are sitting on the longstanding lower trendline which is drawn on this weekly chart. With a lot of talk about GBP devaluing in the future and the recent USD rally it could be argued that the fundamentals are in place for us to break through this important trendline. If it keeps knocking at the door, eventually the buyers are going to give in and we're looking at the important psychological support at 2.00 and beyond.

Having said that, looking at the hourly this trendline has been a profitable place to buy in the last two days where it has bounced twice. It seems like a pretty straightforward trade to enter when we see price action showing support at this level in the form of price action, and if we are wrong (it breaks the trendline) we find out quickly without too much loss, reverse the trade and make some pips.
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  • #55,519
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:29pm Dec 18, 2007 12:29pm
OK. Where will price go today and to year's end? Who knows, but I'll take my technical stab at it. For today it looks like we have pretty much seen the bottom. The 5SMA low has been hit on the Daily, 12H, and 8H charts. There is a possiblity that price could spike down to the 227.40 area and test it for the third time, but it will probably hold if that happens, just because the US market is running out of time for the day. DOW can always surprise at the end of its day, but it doesn't seem to be affecting GBP/JPY's movement as much recently. 15M and 30M charts are OS on Stochastics, and 1H has just gone beneath the OS (20) line as well. 4H shows room to move down on Stochastics, but many times the 4H will only go to the 50 line on Stochastics and then reverse in the opposite direction. Yes, as Karmo pointed out, we did have a QQE bearish confirmation on the 1H candle. We will probably have to wait and see what tomorrow's new Day Candle shows before getting a clearer picture on immediate direction. I thought earlier we would see the Daily 5SMA High, around 229.40, but the Stoch/RSI indicator didn't have a good upward angle and has since turned down. The following posts are the charts showing my analysis. Here is the Daily chart first.

M2B
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  • #55,520
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:32pm Dec 18, 2007 12:32pm
Since we've been talking Andrews Pitchfork's, I drew the most conservative one I could on a Daily chart using the 10/30 to 11/24 decline. If price were to shoot up today, the median touch point would be 233.13. Of course, that median line is rising so the touch number goes up a little everyday. I tried to attach the chart, but could not get it to work (new computer). Man, if we can reach that median line it would be the best risk/reward short that I have had in a long, long time!
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