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  • #261
  • Jan 4, 2007 2:06pm Jan 4, 2007 2:06pm
Quoting llambert3
Just following along here. I went back to last year and went day by day to backtest the gbp/usd only. Did really well in 2005. The last s/l was 1/3/06 as I was in a sell prior to that. Of course the 1/3/06 daily candle was crazy opposite. But from 1/3/06 to sometime in May or June, I kept getting 60 pips, losing 90, geting 95, losing 80, etc. I basically made no money for 5 or 6 months, then all of a sudden I got a 1284 pip gain on one trade. (By the way, this was with an 80 pip s/l not 10, maybe 10 would've gotten good results during those months so I'll check it out)

I would hope that the other pairs were making money during the non trending time, but it got me curious as to what you would do as a full time trader that needed a monthly income during that period? Have you thought about that?

Also, I apologize for writing so much in your journal. I will try to refrain from writing so much and just read it. I know you want to write STOP to me, you are just too kind.
That's why I'm testing for a year - the tricky part is when the market ranges. However, even when it does, as long as the range is 300-500 pips then the system can still be successful. Also, as time goes on in theory I should get better and make more out of those periods.

As with any method or system it's never going to be perfect but all I'm looking for is some consistency over the long term. I would never give up the day job until I can confidently earn at least twice as much as I do now working - that time may be a few years off but I'm patient

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #262
  • Jan 4, 2007 2:07pm Jan 4, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting coastalfx
James just go back and read it from the beginning... it's simple.
Thanks - appreciate your answer
  • #263
  • Jan 4, 2007 2:10pm Jan 4, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting milan47
Hey stevie,

Nice move for us today. (+190) Thank you.
I don't know much about fundies but NFP might go both ways
If the report will be negative, it will probably take some or all of the pips from USD related gains.
Since this is a demo account I can afford to be patient and not to throw up tomorrow if the report turns against us...

regards

frank
Yup, nfp is the one news release that can mess up even the longer term trades. Apart from UJ, all trades are comfortably in profit at the moment so some reasonable data will be appreciated tomorrow.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #264
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:03pm Jan 4, 2007 4:03pm
OK, all trades still open and stop losses moved as per plan.....

USDCHF long from 1.2261 (s/l 1.2230 guarantees minus 31 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9513 (s/l 1.9543 guarantees minus 30 pips)
USDJPY long from 119.35 (s/l 118.89 guarantees minus 46 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.3168 (s/l 1.3190 guarantees minus 22 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1656 (s/l 1.1706 guarantees plus 50 pips)

So, from putting on the trades yesterday and an initial stop loss of over 600 pips, worst case scenario is minus 79 pips. Currently, trades are up by just over 300 pips between them.

NFP tomorrow so let's see....

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #265
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:17pm Jan 4, 2007 4:17pm
steviet

will u hold your positions thru NFP report?
  • #266
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:28pm Jan 4, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting obeewon
steviet

will u hold your positions thru NFP report?
Yes, trades are always kept open until stopped out, news or no news.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #267
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:37pm Jan 4, 2007 4:37pm
Do you use 4hr Charts to come to conclusions, to buy or sell? I am going to 4hr charts, looks by far the safest to trade. I like your Journal entrys! Looks good! Hey this board is hot! Thanks!
  • #268
  • Jan 4, 2007 4:43pm Jan 4, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting ut2DaMax
Do you use 4hr Charts to come to conclusions, to buy or sell? I am going to 4hr charts, looks by far the safest to trade. I like your Journal entrys! Looks good! Hey this board is hot! Thanks!
When I place a new trade I look at candlestick formations primarily but do also take into account other things such as a repeated failure to breach support/resistance during the previous day(s).

In such cases I will also look at other timeframes for more clarity.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #269
  • Edited Jan 5, 2007 4:26pm Jan 4, 2007 4:53pm | Edited Jan 5, 2007 4:26pm
OK, USDJPY just stopped out for a 46 pip loss.

Net pip gain in Jan: +403 pips
Cumulative since Nov: +1735 pips

Will re-enter USDJPY at Sunday opening.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #270
  • Jan 4, 2007 10:09pm Jan 4, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting steviet
That's why I'm testing for a year - the tricky part is when the market ranges. However, even when it does, as long as the range is 300-500 pips then the system can still be successful. Also, as time goes on in theory I should get better and make more out of those periods.

As with any method or system it's never going to be perfect but all I'm looking for is some consistency over the long term. I would never give up the day job until I can confidently earn at least twice as much as I do now working - that time may be a few years off but I'm patient

Kind Regards
Steve
The trick is to be able to recognize when markets are stuck in a tight range from when they are trending. If you want to be a full-time trader, you got to make sure you make a decent amount of pips each month. Trading must be like any job and give you a paycheck at the end of the month.

In fact, if you want to be successful you need to have a backup plan for when markets are rangebound. You dont have to change your system, just make proper adjustments to it according to the type of market you are trading.

When markets are consolidating, it could take weeks or even months before seeing some decent breakout move. In those cases, you must make sure that your system is in line with the market and trade the range.

I no longer am trading FOREX as I have switched to daytrading futures, yet I do get to trade a choppy market on a daily basis for a couple of hours at least. As soon as I recognize I am stuck in the middle of a chop, I become much more conservative and reduce my position size, decrease my targets and keep my stops tight until the market breaks out.

This is what I found to be tough about trading FOREX. You have to be patient and if you are an action-freak like myself, you just can't sit in front of the monitor for 2-3 days without opening a trade.

I do believe making a living out of FOREX is very possible and is within the reach of every person with an average IQ.

The real holy grail is to find the optimal market niche that better suits your personality.

Keep up the good work and if you are tough enough and determined enough, you'll succeed one day.

IS
  • #271
  • Jan 4, 2007 11:46pm Jan 4, 2007 11:46pm
I agree with the last post somewhat but disagree that you have to make a paycheck every single month. That is ludicrous. The reason people have jobs and employment is for consistent pay and some stability. However, as an entrepreneur I earn far more money than the average employee but my income is much more varible. In 2006 I earned over 120K my average work week was about 12 hours. My best month in business was over 20K profit last Jan. I also had 2 months this past fall that I didn't make a single dime of profit.

I continue to live by managing my income. I have very very little debt. I live off of about 2K a month. I invest of course and make donations to charity. In life and business we will always have feast and famines. If you don't put away during the times of feast you will die during the famine.

As a business owner the feast are much great versus being employeed however the famines are much worse as well.

Trading Forex can be very similar. In order to be long term you either have to have a system that creates profits every month but even then you are under massive preformance pressure every thirty days. Or you just have to have a system like Steve's but earn enough money throughout the year to be able to wait the market out if it does get stuck in any kind of range. If I was Steve I would just make sure I knew what I need to make to live off of each month. Save up 6 months worth of income in a nest egg. After my system was proven just go for it. For the first little while keep putting your profits back in a bank account that is earning interest incase you happen to have a slow month or two.

All the best Steve! I am pulling for you. Treat Forex like a business and you will be fine.

Jackie
  • #272
  • Jan 5, 2007 1:33am Jan 5, 2007 1:33am
Quoting ItalianSharp
The trick is to be able to recognize when markets are stuck in a tight range from when they are trending. If you want to be a full-time trader, you got to make sure you make a decent amount of pips each month. Trading must be like any job and give you a paycheck at the end of the month.

In fact, if you want to be successful you need to have a backup plan for when markets are rangebound. You dont have to change your system, just make proper adjustments to it according to the type of market you are trading.

When markets are consolidating, it could take weeks or even months before seeing some decent breakout move. In those cases, you must make sure that your system is in line with the market and trade the range.

I no longer am trading FOREX as I have switched to daytrading futures, yet I do get to trade a choppy market on a daily basis for a couple of hours at least. As soon as I recognize I am stuck in the middle of a chop, I become much more conservative and reduce my position size, decrease my targets and keep my stops tight until the market breaks out.

This is what I found to be tough about trading FOREX. You have to be patient and if you are an action-freak like myself, you just can't sit in front of the monitor for 2-3 days without opening a trade.

I do believe making a living out of FOREX is very possible and is within the reach of every person with an average IQ.

The real holy grail is to find the optimal market niche that better suits your personality.

Keep up the good work and if you are tough enough and determined enough, you'll succeed one day.

IS
Thanks very much for your comments IS - I truly believe I've found something here that can work for me long term. That in itself only means something if I stay disciplined and true to my plan and do not deviate in any way.

The discipline does come into play more when the markets range as you say and that is the time I need to just be strong and trust the system.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #273
  • Jan 5, 2007 1:38am Jan 5, 2007 1:38am
Quoting coastalfx
I agree with the last post somewhat but disagree that you have to make a paycheck every single month. That is ludicrous. The reason people have jobs and employment is for consistent pay and some stability. However, as an entrepreneur I earn far more money than the average employee but my income is much more varible. In 2006 I earned over 120K my average work week was about 12 hours. My best month in business was over 20K profit last Jan. I also had 2 months this past fall that I didn't make a single dime of profit.

I continue to live by managing my income. I have very very little debt. I live off of about 2K a month. I invest of course and make donations to charity. In life and business we will always have feast and famines. If you don't put away during the times of feast you will die during the famine.

As a business owner the feast are much great versus being employeed however the famines are much worse as well.

Trading Forex can be very similar. In order to be long term you either have to have a system that creates profits every month but even then you are under massive preformance pressure every thirty days. Or you just have to have a system like Steve's but earn enough money throughout the year to be able to wait the market out if it does get stuck in any kind of range. If I was Steve I would just make sure I knew what I need to make to live off of each month. Save up 6 months worth of income in a nest egg. After my system was proven just go for it. For the first little while keep putting your profits back in a bank account that is earning interest incase you happen to have a slow month or two.

All the best Steve! I am pulling for you. Treat Forex like a business and you will be fine.

Jackie
Thanks so much for your truly inspirational post Jackie

I'm not articulate at the best of times but it's as if you just reached inside my head and put my thoughts down in writing for me lol.

Yup, getting out of that monthly pay cheque mentality is exactly what I need to do. I really don't care if I don't make a bean for a couple of months as long as I know I can make on average around 10% a month.

As you say. the good months you are sensible & put some aside for the not so good months.

Thanks once again, it was a great post to wake up to

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #274
  • Jan 5, 2007 7:01am Jan 5, 2007 7:01am
Quoting llambert3
Just like today, I would've bet my house (not really) that the usd/jpy would've tanked. The daily uptrend was already huge (and needs a retracement), then to me the 12/27 and 1/2 daily candles pointed downward. I'd seen in the past when backtesting that if in an uptrend with those candles it was time for that reversal or retracement (at least enoough to come out positive). Then today had to come along and destroy that. I guess you can't be right all the time, even with the candle patterns.
Hmmm, just unbelievable that the current price is where it is. The candle pattern turned out to be a great call (at least for a retracement) after the one final up candle when I wrote the above.
  • #275
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:14am Jan 5, 2007 8:14am
Quoting coastalfx
I agree with the last post somewhat but disagree that you have to make a paycheck every single month. That is ludicrous. The reason people have jobs and employment is for consistent pay and some stability. However, as an entrepreneur I earn far more money than the average employee but my income is much more varible. In 2006 I earned over 120K my average work week was about 12 hours. My best month in business was over 20K profit last Jan. I also had 2 months this past fall that I didn't make a single dime of profit.

I continue to live by managing my income. I have very very little debt. I live off of about 2K a month. I invest of course and make donations to charity. In life and business we will always have feast and famines. If you don't put away during the times of feast you will die during the famine.

As a business owner the feast are much great versus being employeed however the famines are much worse as well.

Trading Forex can be very similar. In order to be long term you either have to have a system that creates profits every month but even then you are under massive preformance pressure every thirty days. Or you just have to have a system like Steve's but earn enough money throughout the year to be able to wait the market out if it does get stuck in any kind of range. If I was Steve I would just make sure I knew what I need to make to live off of each month. Save up 6 months worth of income in a nest egg. After my system was proven just go for it. For the first little while keep putting your profits back in a bank account that is earning interest incase you happen to have a slow month or two.

All the best Steve! I am pulling for you. Treat Forex like a business and you will be fine.

Jackie
Well said, coastalfx.
A good source of inspiration for those who want to make forex as a living.
  • #276
  • Jan 5, 2007 9:25am Jan 5, 2007 9:25am
Hi Steviet,

This is my first post in this forum. I been following your thread for sometime though and have even traded your signals live Thank you for sharing your method.

I am curious, do you have any recommendation for a newbie? Any good books to read? Who has given you inspiration or been influential to your forex success to date?

Thanks much.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #277
  • Jan 5, 2007 3:54pm Jan 5, 2007 3:54pm
hey steviet, do you ever consider trading gbpjpy? I'm sure you've seen how the daily price moves with this pair, it's crazy! with a trend following system like your plus candlesticks, you can easily be a millionaire in a few years

maybe in my last 20 trades, i'll incorporate gbpjpy

ps. i guess nfp helped some of us
  • #278
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:02pm Jan 5, 2007 4:02pm
OK, all 4 remaining positions still open and currently up by 564 pips.....

USDCHF long from 1.2261 (s/l 1.2264 guarantees plus 3 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9513 (s/l 1.9455 guarantees plus 58 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.3168 (s/l 1.3116 guarantees plus 52 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1656 (s/l 1.1712 guarantees plus 56 pips)

So, thanks to surprisingly good US NFP data we have locked in 169 pips profit so far. Actually, trades were in the perfect position last night pre NFP with regards to stop losses.

If US data was poor all trades would have been stopped out but we would only have lost 33 pips over the 4 trades so risk/reward ratio was pretty good.

Anyhow, have a great weekend folks and catch you all Sunday.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #279
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:05pm Jan 5, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting hilmy83
hey steviet, do you ever consider trading gbpjpy? I'm sure you've seen how the daily price moves with this pair, it's crazy! with a trend following system like your plus candlesticks, you can easily be a millionaire in a few years

maybe in my last 20 trades, i'll incorporate gbpjpy

ps. i guess nfp helped some of us
NFP owed me one after last month

Yup, will possibly look at other pairs such as GJ, EJ & AU but am sticking with these five at the moment. I need to backtest them properly when I get some quality time.

Have a great weekend & well done with your trades.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #280
  • Jan 5, 2007 8:27pm Jan 5, 2007 8:27pm
Quoting coastalfx
I agree with the last post somewhat but disagree that you have to make a paycheck every single month. That is ludicrous. The reason people have jobs and employment is for consistent pay and some stability. However, as an entrepreneur I earn far more money than the average employee but my income is much more varible. In 2006 I earned over 120K my average work week was about 12 hours. My best month in business was over 20K profit last Jan. I also had 2 months this past fall that I didn't make a single dime of profit.

I continue to live by managing my income. I have very very little debt. I live off of about 2K a month. I invest of course and make donations to charity. In life and business we will always have feast and famines. If you don't put away during the times of feast you will die during the famine.

As a business owner the feast are much great versus being employeed however the famines are much worse as well.

Trading Forex can be very similar. In order to be long term you either have to have a system that creates profits every month but even then you are under massive preformance pressure every thirty days. Or you just have to have a system like Steve's but earn enough money throughout the year to be able to wait the market out if it does get stuck in any kind of range. If I was Steve I would just make sure I knew what I need to make to live off of each month. Save up 6 months worth of income in a nest egg. After my system was proven just go for it. For the first little while keep putting your profits back in a bank account that is earning interest incase you happen to have a slow month or two.

All the best Steve! I am pulling for you. Treat Forex like a business and you will be fine.

Jackie
Steve is an employed worker and is accustomed to a monthly paycheck. It's very hard to make the mental shift and accept that for 2-3 months you may not make money, or even lose money.

Just think about it: you quit your job, you are all excited about your great system, you have saved enough capital for 12months of survival...

...and when you start off, markets are rangebound for 2 months. If your system is solely based on trending markets and only works when markets move nicely in one direction - like almost all systems i should say - how do you think you are going to feel at the end of the 2nd month?

Maybe you are down by 10% after 2 months of trading. You meet your relatives, friends and everyone asks you how things are doing. Well, you are a trader right? You are supposed to make money right?

I don't mean to sound negative, but just very REALISTIC.

I went thru that shit and I actually lost 30% of my capital in the first month of trading. And what saved me from losing it all was solid money management. And yes, my system was a trend-based system and couldn't deal with choppy markets.

All I am trying to say is that too many people underestimate the importance of psychological stability and personal wellness and their implications with trading.

1 month without making profits at what is supposed to be your job is a very long month.

If you trade as a hobby and have a stable income, you can put up with even longer periods of famine.

Yet, if you trade fulltime and your bills, family, mortgage, etc depend on trading, it's really tough to deal with famine.

This was one of the reasons why I quit trading FOREX. I knew that in order to make the big bucks trading FOREX you had to use medium to large time frames, like hourly to dailys or even weeklys. That implied periods of famine and periods of feast, just like you said.

As a former employee myself, I just couldn't put up with the fact I basically depended on the big trades. What if the markets stagnate for half a year? Can you just imagine that?

I have no doubt Steve's system is successful over a 12-month stretch.

The issue is, can you trade a system that goes to thru famine and feast and maintain your psychological stability in the meantime?

You made a comparison between trading and running a business. True, trading is like running your own business.

However, if you run a business you get many benefits from your business even during famine periods. You get a car, you almost get all your bills paid for, you can deduct meal expenses, etc. Even the law protects your business. It's easier to get mortgages. In a few words, you are recognized as an entity by the society.

If you are a trader, you are on your own. It's you, your computer, your screens, your charts, and your capital against the best traders in the world.

This is a great topic about trading, yet too many people are concerned about indicators, systems, etc...and once they get something to work, they think the path to becoming a millionaire is wide open in front of them.

How many can actually survive the stress of going thru famine and losing money for an extended period of time and still have the nerve, coolness, and discipline to believe in the system and wait for those big trades to bail you out?

I was not able to do that and I would never be able to. It goes against my work principles. To me, trading should be like any other job in terms of structure. Trading should also be remunarated much more than any other job due to risk premium.

I decided to become a trader simply because it's the only thing I feel passionate about and it's the only "job" that can keep me working for 12-14 hours a day without me even looking at the clock once.

As far as the rest, trading should be just the same as any other job. You work and you get paid for your work. You work very well, and you get paid very well. You work poorly, you get paid poorly.

Yet, not getting paid is not an option to me. Hell, today I am freaking out because I had to close this week with a loss. Even a week without profits makes me angry. One day is fine, two days is way too long.

Steve, you sound like a straight guy. Just make sure you consider all facets of the game before you make the big jump.
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