USDCAD trend reversal?

All I'm going to do is buy before 1.00. We've had 2 bounces off that level already, so hopefully I can grab 50 pips out of it.

imho, that last CAD rate cut was not warranted. It was done because they feared the strength of their own currency. The CAD will strenghten tomorrow. But it will be tough to get through 1.00.

gotta agree with you. I think the perception for the fed holding back on more cuts will not stand the test of time. Housing is abisymal, lending is tanking, consumer retail spending doesn't seem to be happening. Better off long the few currencies that have some strength in their economies. Canada never overtightened so they do not have to overloosen.

Thanks for the comments. Since I primarily trade the commodity currencies and their respective yen crosses, I'd rather discuss them in these existing threads, instead of segregating worthwhile discussion across multiple threads. But a journal is something I've considered, perhaps in the future.

With regards to CADJPY, looks like we finally got that 61.8 fib/200-day SMA breakout! Yesterday evening saw a continued fade of Friday's run, testing the weekly pivot before a complete 180 and run on the weekly R1.
http://i4.tinypic.com/8adyekx.gif

The newswires mentioned higher Canadian M&A prospects, but you know my reasoning - the CAD/JPY vs Crude divergence (which I'd say is only in the 2nd or 3rd inning) red line = crude oil
http://i19.tinypic.com/7yryus2.gif

Also received the first major sell sign on USDCAD since 11/05, with both the hourly trendline and 13-day EMA violated, along with MACD crossing:

http://i2.tinypic.com/6ljm4wl.gif

The market is tipping its hand, as shown by the outperformance of the CAD against all of the majors the past two sessions (especially AUD/CAD). Initial target on CADJPY at the 50fib line (114.42). USDCAD might make the larger move this week, as strength in USDJPY seems to be petering out, perhaps carry trade risk aversion with regard to the big earnings releases of several major WS banks this week.

Pullback to 112.23 right now, then bukkake on the Jpy

I made a killing on cad.

Great for you, but I just don't see how it bears any relevance to this discussion. What's a "killing" in your view, anyway?

on the Jpy or from the Jpy?

CJ testing the weekly R1 again, let's see if it breaks it this time. Anyone else on board?

Just your trusty ol' pal, DutchTrader.

Hmm, that might actually be a sell signal.

Just kidding mate

KGB,

Don't forget about Canadian CPI tomorrow as well.

Thanks, I'm aware, protective stops are in place. With the CAD's recent action (and the US CPI), I don't expect the numbers to disappoint, but we'll see.

So much for that CPI :surprised

the loonie is riding on its 200 SMA as support and has resistance at 1.0073....

any advice for an entry?

Very tough to choose. Which is the lesser of two evils?
Maybe the ECB liquidity infusion is where the future direction is for central banking.
Anyone else have a suggestion?

So, the BOC cuts rates only because they're not happy with the appreciation of their currency. Data comes out weaker than I wanted this morning, giving them reason for another cut, yet the price came back to where it was pre-report.
I can still see us hitting and sinking through parity. Until then, I'll keep buying just above it and taking small profits.
Do they want to cut rates again???

Just want to note that there is a new thread for CAD/JPY discussion. Feel free to join us there.

I need to do my xmas shopping cross the border... down baby down!