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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,321
  • Edited 3:50am Dec 17, 2007 2:22am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting dagoods
thanks!
Welcome mate. Got stopped out on GU long The current GJshort should recover some of those pips atleast. Today the fed will be holding auctions but thats already priced in I guess. Thoughts ?

edit- just saw ur chart gu chart. looks like a plausible target with todays Rightmove house price printing negative.No other major GU releases. However tomorrrow could be a different day with expectations for the GBP releases positive as the FF calendar shows.
  • #55,322
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:28am Dec 17, 2007 2:28am
Quoting birdt
I agree. We've been consolidating for the last month in this range which is ever decreasing in size. The lower trendline (sky blue) has been tested and held at least 4 times, which I assume is the 226 level that quecee mentioned. However the GBPJPY is a creature of habit and one activity that it seems particularly partial to is the 50 fib, and this is the thick red line at 231.30 that quecee also mentioned.

On this 4 H chart, having made higher highs and higher lows we are still in an uptrend but on much lower time frames we are slowly declining, perhaps to the lower end of the 4H range. The most recent high/low yields the 50 fib at 227.55 but be mindful of support at 228 where we had our most recent bounce. I'll also be looking closely at how price moves in relation to the pitchforks I have drawn on this chart. If price gravitates towards either then I may reconsider my intraday bias.

So, although I'm not currently in any trades, I am bearish for the moment, will look for good opportunities to put in long entries with a target at that 50 fib - after that I'll be loading up shorts, waiting for the collapse into oblivion that Markam promised us.

uj may want to test 4 hour support/demand line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,323
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:41am Dec 17, 2007 2:41am
just slammed hard into the 12/13 lows near 227.50. I went long again @ 227.55. If it bounces from here back to the top near 230.20, all my Christmas plans are back on!! Protective stop @ 226.50---Best wishes to all.
  • #55,324
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:43am Dec 17, 2007 2:43am
sometimes it is useful to draw a little bit longer trendlines...

R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting dagoods
gu daily chart target 2.014 what u think????
  • #55,325
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:49am Dec 17, 2007 2:49am
Quoting Rocroy
sometimes it is useful to draw a little bit longer trendlines...

R

Attachment

great thanks! very helpful
  • #55,326
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:51am Dec 17, 2007 2:51am
i still believe that uj needs to correct down at least 100 pips, maybe not today but within few days. that would mean at least 200 pips down from gj perspective.

R

Quoting dagoods
uj may want to test 4 hour support/demand line
  • #55,327
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:27am Dec 17, 2007 3:27am
GBP/USD intraday: further downside expected
Pivot: 2.02
Our preference: [email protected] with [email protected] & 2.0065 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 2.02 look further upside with 2.025&2.028 as targets.
Comment: the 30min Rsi is capped by a declining trend line.
Attached Image
  • #55,328
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:50am Dec 17, 2007 3:50am
why is it so quiet today??? where you guys?
  • #55,329
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:52am Dec 17, 2007 3:52am
UJ really pain ass

Thanks
  • #55,330
  • Dec 17, 2007 3:59am Dec 17, 2007 3:59am
The press is starting to acknowledge how overvalued GBP is (even if they waited until it got hammered):


Quote
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Just a month after rising to a 26- year high against the dollar, the British pound is starting to look more like the beleaguered U.S. currency.
The pound weakened against 12 of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies since reaching $2.1161 on Nov. 9. In the U.K., just as in the U.S., policy makers are cutting interest rates to restore calm in credit markets and home prices are declining.
``When we look at economies around the world which are exposed to similar problems as in the U.S., the U.K. is pretty high on our list,'' said Andrew Balls, a global bond fund manager at Newport, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $721 billion. ``Sterling is a good currency to sell.''


We haven't really experienced it so much in GBY JPY due to both currencies moving in the same direction but fear not, our time will come!
Quote
The pound ``will be the standout underperformer next year,'' said Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London who expects sterling to fall to $1.83. ``The housing market looks as if it is falling off a cliff. Sterling is now going to fall quite sharply.''
The U.K.'s currency will drop to $1.94 by the end of next year, according to the median estimate of 42 firms surveyed by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Edinburgh say selling the pound versus Japan's yen is one of their top 10 recommendations for 2008.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Q4U&refer=home
  • #55,331
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:00am Dec 17, 2007 4:00am
Quoting Squidster
why is it so quiet today??? where you guys?
I guess many are staying out because of the squabbling that erupts every now and then.
  • #55,332
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:08am Dec 17, 2007 4:08am
Quoting forexnovice
I guess many are staying out because of the squabbling that erupts every now and then.
i am long according to my indicators. and the price is at the bottom of the channel for me.
  • #55,333
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:14am Dec 17, 2007 4:14am
Quoting Squidster
i am long according to my indicators. and the price is at the bottom of the channel for me.
What channel ? A chart would explain much better. Good luck.
  • #55,334
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:16am Dec 17, 2007 4:16am
Quoting forexnovice
What channel ? A chart would explain much better. Good luck.
fib..i cant include charts..im on pda
  • #55,335
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:40am Dec 17, 2007 4:40am
Quoting chaoz
UJ really pain ass

Thanks

Once again
  • #55,336
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:48am Dec 17, 2007 4:48am
Aus just posted a chart with a bullish prediction.

I just long g/j @ 227.90 for 229.40

PS: We might have a 3 white soldiers candle formation on H1 if the current H1 candle can close higher then the previous two. (Bulllish formation)
  • #55,337
  • Edited 4:52am Dec 17, 2007 4:49am | Edited 4:52am
I'm not long, or short at the moment. Squidster has just prompted me to have a look at this one again - as a potential area to go long. I am seeing support in the form of a 50% ret., horizontal support, and trendline support. Price at 100 SMA on the weekly, and looks to have based sufficiently. Please see chart below, and share your opinions.

Much appreciated.
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"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,338
  • Dec 17, 2007 4:59am Dec 17, 2007 4:59am
Quoting MMDealer
I'm bearish over the next couple of sessions. Why? I think we will see a retest of the lower level of support in the daily channel. Stochs overbought on the Daily also.

Hourly close below 228.24 confirms this short term bias for me. What do you think guys? Targeting 227.00. Probably set a more conservative TP though...
MMDealer,

GJ looks bearish and looks to be headed to retest 226's. . . A break below would mean lower highs and lower lows trend has started. . .

JMHO. . .
  • #55,339
  • Dec 17, 2007 5:03am Dec 17, 2007 5:03am
Quoting quecee5
MMDealer,

GJ looks bearish and looks to be headed to retest 226's. . . A break below would mean lower highs and lower lows trend has started. . .

JMHO. . .
Cool. I was short. Took my profits off the table a little earlier on, as i was uncertain about it all... Good to have a couple of you guys throwing ideas around. I was worried the good traders we're all becoming uninterested... Maybe there is another forum??!! hmmm i want in
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,340
  • Dec 17, 2007 5:05am Dec 17, 2007 5:05am
Quoting MMDealer
I'm not long, or short at the moment. Squidster has just prompted me to have a look at this one again - as a potential area to go long. I am seeing support in the form of a 50% ret., horizontal support, and trendline support. Price at 100 SMA on the weekly, and looks to have based sufficiently. Please see chart below, and share your opinions.

Much appreciated.
i was long from 227.60 and already moved stop to +1 from earlier with first target of 229 area (4hr tl area). Empire announcement is supposed to be bad but if the uj remains stuck and the pound gains we could still see a push up even if dow drops so if i am still in profit at that time i will move stop further into profit. market will probably be volatile this week with Christmas coming up
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