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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,301
  • Dec 16, 2007 6:59pm Dec 16, 2007 6:59pm
Quoting FX-Petra
doesn't look like it will happen this hour! I am long from 228.10...scalp to 229.30. Good luck today MM!
i guess i was being a little sarcastic. i just thought it was a littile too early for that level of resistance to come into play. i don't trade on Sundays (a promise I madeto God) but i would have entered there as well
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #55,302
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:13pm Dec 16, 2007 7:13pm
hey guys, dont post much, but looking at weekly mom (aus system) to me looks very bearish all moms pointing down, only gripe price above 5sma i think we will hit 5sma high at 23000 area then down to the lower band 5sma low at
23000 area this also ties in with the 100sma weekly any thoughts. much appreciated.
  • #55,303
  • Edited 7:37pm Dec 16, 2007 7:23pm | Edited 7:37pm
Quoting woolley
hey guys, dont post much, but looking at weekly mom (aus system) to me looks very bearish all moms pointing down, only gripe price above 5sma i think we will hit 5sma high at 23000 area then down to the lower band 5sma low at
23000 area this also ties in with the 100sma weekly any thoughts. much appreciated.
A break below 226 would be bearish for this pair. As long as it stays above and get back above 38% fib I see it challenging 50% fib @ 231.30's. However resistance lies above @ 230.40's it'll have to overcome 1st. . .
  • #55,304
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:47pm Dec 16, 2007 7:47pm
Quoting quecee5
A break below 226 would be bearish for this pair. As long as it stays above and get back above 38% fib I see it challenging 50% fib @ 231.30's. However resistance lies above @ 230.40's it'll have overcome 1st. . .
I agree. We've been consolidating for the last month in this range which is ever decreasing in size. The lower trendline (sky blue) has been tested and held at least 4 times, which I assume is the 226 level that quecee mentioned. However the GBPJPY is a creature of habit and one activity that it seems particularly partial to is the 50 fib, and this is the thick red line at 231.30 that quecee also mentioned.

On this 4 H chart, having made higher highs and higher lows we are still in an uptrend but on much lower time frames we are slowly declining, perhaps to the lower end of the 4H range. The most recent high/low yields the 50 fib at 227.55 but be mindful of support at 228 where we had our most recent bounce. I'll also be looking closely at how price moves in relation to the pitchforks I have drawn on this chart. If price gravitates towards either then I may reconsider my intraday bias.

So, although I'm not currently in any trades, I am bearish for the moment, will look for good opportunities to put in long entries with a target at that 50 fib - after that I'll be loading up shorts, waiting for the collapse into oblivion that Markam promised us.
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  • #55,305
  • Dec 16, 2007 8:23pm Dec 16, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting birdt
I agree. We've been consolidating for the last month in this range which is ever decreasing in size. The lower trendline (sky blue) has been tested and held at least 4 times, which I assume is the 226 level that quecee mentioned. However the GBPJPY is a creature of habit and one activity that it seems particularly partial to is the 50 fib, and this is the thick red line at 231.30 that quecee also mentioned.

On this 4 H chart, having made higher highs and higher lows we are still in an uptrend but on much lower time frames we are slowly declining, perhaps to the lower end of the 4H range. The most recent high/low yields the 50 fib at 227.55 but be mindful of support at 228 where we had our most recent bounce. I'll also be looking closely at how price moves in relation to the pitchforks I have drawn on this chart. If price gravitates towards either then I may reconsider my intraday bias.

So, although I'm not currently in any trades, I am bearish for the moment, will look for good opportunities to put in long entries with a target at that 50 fib - after that I'll be loading up shorts, waiting for the collapse into oblivion that Markam promised us.
Birdt,

Great analysis. . .
  • #55,306
  • Edited 9:23pm Dec 16, 2007 9:03pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting birdt
I agree. We've been consolidating for the last month in this range which is ever decreasing in size. The lower trendline (sky blue) has been tested and held at least 4 times, which I assume is the 226 level that quecee mentioned. However the GBPJPY is a creature of habit and one activity that it seems particularly partial to is the 50 fib, and this is the thick red line at 231.30 that quecee also mentioned.

On this 4 H chart, having made higher highs and higher lows we are still in an uptrend but on much lower time frames we are slowly declining, perhaps to the lower end of the 4H range. The most recent high/low yields the 50 fib at 227.55 but be mindful of support at 228 where we had our most recent bounce. I'll also be looking closely at how price moves in relation to the pitchforks I have drawn on this chart. If price gravitates towards either then I may reconsider my intraday bias.

So, although I'm not currently in any trades, I am bearish for the moment, will look for good opportunities to put in long entries with a target at that 50 fib - after that I'll be loading up shorts, waiting for the collapse into oblivion that Markam promised us.
Markam and the bears have left us, which is why I turned bullish. 228.40 is a very strong support because it was the lower bound of the range that we were in for about a month during 8/28-9/18. If it holds, I think we will be trading in the 230's for the next couple of weeks until the next rounds of US news came out. If traders start to really worry about the RECESSION, then we will see another massive unwind. If not, the carry trade will continue to build once again.
  • #55,307
  • Dec 16, 2007 10:25pm Dec 16, 2007 10:25pm
I'm bearish over the next couple of sessions. Why? I think we will see a retest of the lower level of support in the daily channel. Stochs overbought on the Daily also.

Hourly close below 228.24 confirms this short term bias for me. What do you think guys? Targeting 227.00. Probably set a more conservative TP though...
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,308
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:01am Dec 17, 2007 12:01am
Quoting MMDealer
I'm bearish over the next couple of sessions. Why? I think we will see a retest of the lower level of support in the daily channel. Stochs overbought on the Daily also.

Hourly close below 228.24 confirms this short term bias for me. What do you think guys? Targeting 227.00. Probably set a more conservative TP though...
Does anyone know what the feds new policy on liquidity will be doing to the market? December 17th they were going to have their liquidity store open for round 2 if I remember correctly? anyone?
  • #55,309
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:04am Dec 17, 2007 12:04am
Quoting dagoods
Does anyone know what the feds new policy on liquidity will be doing to the market? December 17th they were going to have their liquidity store open for round 2 if I remember correctly? anyone?

Thanks Dagoods,

Id also really appreciate any input from someone who has an idea of the possible implications...

Cheers
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,310
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:05am Dec 17, 2007 12:05am
Just a little fundamental analysis.....
US stock market futures are negative and continue to go down. Nikkei is -256.00 and dropping as I type this.
Major US banks reporting earnings this week; Morgan Stanley on Wed. and Bear Stearns on Thurs., expecting more writeoffs and negative earnings. Investors are already nervous and with the expectation of a Jan/2008 rate cut being hammered by the high inflation reports last week we could see quite a selloff in US equities.
Looks like it is going to be a good week for pips.

Also, 4HR QQE about to cross down, might be a good setup for shorts.

Good Trading to all !
  • #55,311
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:19am Dec 17, 2007 12:19am
Quoting Rustyyy
Just a little fundamental analysis.....
US stock market futures are negative and continue to go down. Nikkei is -256.00 and dropping as I type this.
Major US banks reporting earnings this week; Morgan Stanley on Wed. and Bear Stearns on Thurs., expecting more writeoffs and negative earnings. Investors are already nervous and with the expectation of a Jan/2008 rate cut being hammered by the high inflation reports last week we could see quite a selloff in US equities.
Looks like it is going to be a good week for pips.

Also, 4HR QQE about to cross down, might be a good setup for shorts.

Good Trading to all !

Cheers Rustyy!

Nice work.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,312
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:29am Dec 17, 2007 12:29am
Quoting MMDealer
Thanks Dagoods,

Id also really appreciate any input from someone who has an idea of the possible implications...

Cheers

i do beleive the POSSIBLE implication is an unexpected big green bar through the roof at any time putting a big fat wrinkle in the technical analysis , on the other hand, maybe this time there will be a big fat red bar.... i dont know thats why i ask....but caution seems wise to me ...i am setting tight stops for now
  • #55,313
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:30am Dec 17, 2007 1:30am
Quoting MMDealer
I'm bearish over the next couple of sessions. Why? I think we will see a retest of the lower level of support in the daily channel. Stochs overbought on the Daily also.

Hourly close below 228.24 confirms this short term bias for me. What do you think guys? Targeting 227.00. Probably set a more conservative TP though...
see chart broke trend demand line at 228.4 i see target at 226.88 possibly assuming the fed doesnt mess us up or if I missed something important
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  • #55,314
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:31am Dec 17, 2007 1:31am
u/j overbough...g/u likely not cross back 2.250...so g/j likely down...around 225-226
  • #55,315
  • Dec 17, 2007 1:51am Dec 17, 2007 1:51am
sf2000 said uj is overbought---but on hourly and daily RSI is not in overbought territory yet. Just wondering if he was using some other indicator.
  • #55,316
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:06am Dec 17, 2007 2:06am
Covered Shorts... Not because i dont think it MAY go further down - but because of the uncertainty regarding Fed Auctions and the like. Also a bit of data - likely to be volatile later on.

Cheers guys.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #55,317
  • Edited 2:46am Dec 17, 2007 2:06am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting dagoods
see chart broke trend demand line at 228.4 i see target at 226.88 possibly assuming the fed doesnt mess us up or if I missed something important
I see price finding support around the lower black line, confluence of daily gann hilo and the 50fib taken from lo 221.25 to hi 230.32.
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  • #55,318
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:06am Dec 17, 2007 2:06am
Quoting FX-Petra
sf2000 said uj is overbought---but on hourly and daily RSI is not in overbought territory yet. Just wondering if he was using some other indicator.
for what it is worth....uj broke 2 hour trendline chart to follow, g/u penetrated but dint break completely its latest trendline on daily but not the major trendline....may be a sign of things to come...caution the fed is still in play today it is the 17th see earlier post.....
  • #55,319
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:09am Dec 17, 2007 2:09am
Quoting forexnovice
I see price finding support around the lower black line, confluence of daily gann hilo and the 50fib taken from lo 221.25 to hi 230.32.

thanks!
  • #55,320
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:22am Dec 17, 2007 2:22am
Quoting forexnovice
I see price finding support around the lower black line, confluence of daily gann hilo and the 50fib taken from lo 221.25 to hi 230.32.
gu daily chart target 2.014 what u think????
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