The System (Irony included) | Page 47 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Point pivot trend line and fibo system (Semafor included) 14 replies

Indicator fix...code included.. WHATS WRONG?!? 4 replies

An interesting read - Daily and 60 Min Strategy - Charts included 3 replies

Attachments: The System (Irony included)
Exit Attachments

The System (Irony included)

  • #921
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:47pm Dec 12, 2007 3:47pm
I have read about the first 20 pages of this thread and will keep reading it but so far I have a couple of questions. Since you are using no indicators how are people here determining the "trend"? For some example, the GBP/USD seems to me to be in a down trend right now as it's making lower highs and lower lows. This could be a big correction or whatever because obviously the overall longterm trend is up. The USD/Yen seems to be in kind of a similar situation.

At a time like this would you be taking bullish or bearish signals for trade entries (or waiting for the long term trend to reestablish itself)? I'm just curious because if everyone is waiting for the looong term trends to reestablish it could be several weeks or even months of no trades. Thanks for any clarification...
  • #922
  • Dec 12, 2007 4:46pm Dec 12, 2007 4:46pm
Betard,

The way I determine trend is by first looking at the Weekly candles. If we make a new weekly high close, then look for long signals on the daily charts.

If we make a new Weekly low close, then look for short signals on the daily charts.

Regards,

BabeFX.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyweekly121207.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #923
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:34pm Dec 12, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting piphitman
Cable "V" trade
Why did you get out of the trade after the 1st. day. Why didn't you stay with it? At that moment there was nothing that will let you know where the next candle will close ...or was it ?
  • #924
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:10am Dec 13, 2007 2:10am
Re:"V" Cable trade

I got out of that trade because it had already pushed all the way up to 2.0487 (already more than I had expected based on the previous days prices) and then it started to retrace. It came down almost 50 pips from it's high and I didn't want to get less than 100 pips on that trade so i just bailed out. I'm glad I did, the next daily candle retraced all the way down to my initial entry point.
trading naked.......
  • #925
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:53am Dec 13, 2007 7:53am
Quoting Betard
I have read about the first 20 pages of this thread and will keep reading it but so far I have a couple of questions. Since you are using no indicators how are people here determining the "trend"? For some example, the GBP/USD seems to me to be in a down trend right now as it's making lower highs and lower lows. This could be a big correction or whatever because obviously the overall longterm trend is up. The USD/Yen seems to be in kind of a similar situation.

At a time like this would you be taking bullish or bearish signals for trade entries (or waiting for the long term trend to reestablish itself)? I'm just curious because if everyone is waiting for the looong term trends to reestablish it could be several weeks or even months of no trades. Thanks for any clarification...

Hello Betard,

I have used MA crossing, price channel, oscillators and the problem is in the fine tuning between the lag and trying to avoid false signals.
For instance, take a MA 50 and make the assumption that when the price is above the MA it is a up trend and when the price is under the MA it is a down trend. You will have a lot of corrections that you will not trade because the price is under the MA, so, regarding your assumption, you are no more in a up trend. If you decide to increase the MA period, you will have much more lag and still be unsecure.
Eventually, I came to the conclusion that if I can draw a "trend line" in a 300 bars daily chart, that's the trend, period. :-)
Ok, for the moment I can draw two lines :-)), a rising one and a downward one. So I will add to my trend definition and say that: "A trend starts from an inflection point".
At this moment you may consider probabilities. Wich is the probability that the top of november is an inflection point ? There is no evidence. No double top, no weekly resistance, no major world event in the past weeks. I would say 10 then % ??? The iraki war had ended I would say 70 %, maybe ???
So, a trend is never black or white, it's a matter of probabilities.
I will reconsider this if weekly chart fails to make a higher high in the upcomming weeks and trade inverse V formation but with fewer lots.
For the moment I still consider it is a 90% up trend and I think that the correction can go to 1.4300 (if you have a look at weekly chart)

Fabrice
  • #926
  • Dec 13, 2007 8:47am Dec 13, 2007 8:47am
Quoting Betard
...
I'm just curious because if everyone is waiting for the looong term trends to reestablish it could be several weeks or even months of no trades. Thanks for any clarification...
Yes, il could be several weeks of no trades in one pair but fortunately there is always a much clearer situation in another pair.

Fabrice
  • #927
  • Dec 13, 2007 11:37am Dec 13, 2007 11:37am
Thanks for the response Fab. My question was about GBP/USD not euro/usd. I do agree with you on the euro trend, but with the cable and some other pairs I don't think we can tell (at least I can't tell) if it's a trend reversal or a big correction or if we'll be ranging around 2.00 all 2008!

Sorry if this is getting off topic but this seems important because right now most of the long term trends are in a correction/reversal and if you're just going with the long term trend you might not be trading any of the major pairs for quite a while using this system.

I think that 4 hour "V" entries might be good for pairs such as gbp/usd (short signals only) because we're clearly in a short term downtrend, and I may start taking these on a demo account to see how it works. This might not be as reliable as daily signals but it allows for some trades that seem to be high-probability to me. I'm still a newbie so I don't know too much these are just my opinions.
  • #928
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:07am Dec 14, 2007 3:07am
Betard,
First I'm a newbie too. I've just broke my first account and currently looking for another broker. Those statements are just my opinions. ;-)

Quoting Betard
Sorry if this is getting off topic but this seems important because right now most of the long term trends are in a correction/reversal and if you're just going with the long term trend you might not be trading any of the major pairs for quite a while using this system.
I only have a set of rules that apply to long term trading, so I will stick to them. "it’s the sitting and waiting that makes the money…." (Jessie Livermoore)

Quote
I think that 4 hour "V" entries might be good for pairs such as gbp/usd (short signals only) because we're clearly in a short term downtrend, and I may start taking these on a demo account to see how it works. This might not be as reliable as daily signals but it allows for some trades that seem to be high-probability to me. I'm still a newbie so I don't know too much these are just my opinions.

I don't know. I think that you can theorically make more pips by trading the 4H chart but you will actually have a lot of stops. Eventually I think that valid 4H entries "matches" daily entries. So, regarding probabilities, I prefer to take daily entries.
  • #929
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:53am Dec 14, 2007 10:53am
I have to chime in here....

I have found that typically 4 hour and Daily entries/exits tend to be very similar.

The main difference of course is that a 4 hour stop can be smaller.

However, at the end of the day, I don't think it matters much, as essentially you are doing the same thing.

You can use this theory for all time frames, just that the shorter you go....the smaller profits tend to be.

It is actually a system I use to scalp in a special scalping account I have. It's my play money.

"V" formations are about the only thing that works consistently in my opinion.....the rest is just noise. As a side note......a 4 hour pinbar is just a version of this exact same theory. This is why us James16 guys like this thread....it's actually very similar to what we do, only simplified even more.

Feb and James would be good friends, I am sure.


Clockwork
  • #930
  • Dec 15, 2007 1:18am Dec 15, 2007 1:18am
Well stated Clockwork. Well stated indeed

Quoting clockwork71
This is why us James16 guys like this thread....it's actually very similar to what we do, only simplified even more.


Clockwork
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #931
  • Dec 15, 2007 5:06am Dec 15, 2007 5:06am
Hi everyone! I hope you all are having a great holiday season! I know I am

I noticed come questions about trend direction and referencing longer time frames. So I put together this little document to hopefully show how I do some things. It's by no means extremly comprehensive but I hope it will be helpful for some of you.

If you have questions or comments I encourage you to ask. With your help I may be able to clear up some areas of this doc that may be vauge or not well explained so that others can get some use of this.

Cheers,

Trader_V
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc The trend the trend oh where art thow trend.doc   244 KB | 1,785 downloads
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #932
  • Dec 15, 2007 8:50am Dec 15, 2007 8:50am
Great job Trader_V.

Your way of reading the trend is exactly the same that the one I decided to adopt after having also tested all the possible indicators. Your document is a true confirmation for me that I eventually start to be on the good way.

Fabrice
  • #933
  • Dec 15, 2007 9:02am Dec 15, 2007 9:02am
Quoting Fab
Great job Trader_V.

Your way of reading the trend is exactly the same that the one I decided to adopt after having also tested all the possible indicators. Your document is a true confirmation for me that I eventually start to be on the good way.

Fabrice

Hey Fab -

Last time I heard, your wife was going to find out if you are having a boy or girl......so which one is it?

We are still about 4 weeks from knowing ourselves.

Clockwork
  • #934
  • Dec 15, 2007 9:07am Dec 15, 2007 9:07am
Quoting Trader_V
Hi everyone! I hope you all are having a great holiday season! I know I am

I noticed come questions about trend direction and referencing longer time frames. So I put together this little document to hopefully show how I do some things. It's by no means extremly comprehensive but I hope it will be helpful for some of you.

If you have questions or comments I encourage you to ask. With your help I may be able to clear up some areas of this doc that may be vauge or not well explained so that others can get some use of this.

Cheers,

Trader_V


Great document Trader_V. I also look at the long trade frames but many times I am confused at what I am seeing and suffer from paralysis by analysis. I think your document will help me fight this disease.

Thanks.
  • #935
  • Edited 8:26pm Dec 15, 2007 10:03am | Edited 8:26pm
Hi Trader_V

Thanks very much for your X'mas gift that helps me a lot in looking at the trends in multitime frames.

One question, say it's trending up in daily or weekly and there's a retracement without breaking the trend, do you mean we simply look for breakout upward (using 1-2-3 formation or breakup of H4 trend line) in H4 to enter a long position? Or you will also consider to go shorts when it's downtrending on H4 during the retracement on the uptrending daily or weekly charts? Thanks.

regards,
pipal
  • #936
  • Dec 15, 2007 10:49am Dec 15, 2007 10:49am
Thanks for the responses guys and thanks for putting that document together Trader_V!!
  • #937
  • Dec 15, 2007 11:40am Dec 15, 2007 11:40am
Quoting Trader_V
Hi everyone! I hope you all are having a great holiday season! I know I am

I noticed come questions about trend direction and referencing longer time frames. So I put together this little document to hopefully show how I do some things. It's by no means extremly comprehensive but I hope it will be helpful for some of you.

If you have questions or comments I encourage you to ask. With your help I may be able to clear up some areas of this doc that may be vauge or not well explained so that others can get some use of this.

Cheers,

Trader_V
Thank you TV!

Great work! I downloaded the doc, and I will spend a day tomorrow to read carefully.


Have a good time and bring my greeting to your wife.

David.

P.S. Wonder why feb didn't show up. Tell him, we miss him.
  • #938
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:29am Dec 16, 2007 1:29am
Great Question Pipal! I will attempt to clarify for you in the quote below. I am in a London airport in transit back home so I don't have any charts to provide examples. Hopefully my words will come through clearly. If not i will post a chart or 2 when I get home.



Quoting pipal
Hi Trader_V

Thanks very much for your X'mas gift that helps me a lot in looking at the trends in multitime frames.

One question, say it's trending up in daily or weekly and there's a retracement without breaking the trend, do you mean we simply look for breakout upward (using 1-2-3 formation or breakup of H4 trend line) in H4 to enter a long position? Or you will also consider to go shorts when it's downtrending on H4 during the retracement on the uptrending daily or weekly charts? Thanks.

Both scenarios are true here. But ask yourself this question; what occurs first a break up for a continuatinuation long and a completion of the 1-2-3 or the retracement?

Clearly the retracement on it's way down to create point 3 is the answer. So I look for opportunities to short the market using price action on the 4H chart and keeping a close eye on things on the weekly.

Once point 3 is created on a weekly chart then clearly the opportunities will be to the long side and a continuation of the previous trend. And again this will be seen on the 4H before it is seen on the weekly but it's always nice to have that big picture view

Now some will say "why the heck would you trade the retracement down in a bullish trend" and my answer is simply "price action said so"...lol But it's true. I listen to what price is telling me on the 4h chart and I listen well. not to mention nobody knows if the previous trend will continue or if the retracement will turn out to be a true reversal. andd if it is a reversal then man oh man am I gonna ride that bus...lol

Hope that helps. I know it's tough to understand only text. I can visualize this stuff in my head and sometimes it comes out clearly and other times.... well let's just say it sounds like I had been drinking heavily. Which I intend to do when I get home.

I can't wait to see my little boy and my wife.

Catch yall later.

Cheers!

regards,
pipal
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #939
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:36am Dec 16, 2007 1:36am
Hi folks,

I am glad that everyone is enjoying my little doc that I put up. I really do hope it helps some of you in some way. Sometimes it just takes one little thing to make all the things you have learned up to this point to come together. Maybe this doc was that one thing or maybe someones post in here will be it. I don't know, but what I do know is only those who stick with it and work through the frustrations and not only apply what they learn but truly understand what they learn will be successful in trading.

So stick with it take your time and study, apply, rest and repeat. Hey I think I shall coin that phrase and call it STARR (Study, Apply, Rest, Repeat). That's probably the most brilliant thing I have ever come up with...LOL

David,

Thank you for the warm wishes and will let her know you say hello right after I say hello

Cheers everyone! and Happy Holidays

Sincerely,

TV
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #940
  • Dec 16, 2007 6:21am Dec 16, 2007 6:21am
Quoting Trader_V
If you have questions or comments I encourage you to ask.
Trader_V

Is the 1 2 3 system you talk about the one Mark Crisp described or is it another one?

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
0 traders viewing now