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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,261
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:02am Dec 14, 2007 11:02am
GU has started it slide to 2.0000, GJ sliding, UJ struggling at current price. These may be signs of what next week will bring. . . .
  • #55,262
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:05am Dec 14, 2007 11:05am
Quoting quecee5
I guess eveything is relative huh?
Longer-term I can see it possibly happening but not before heading lower in the short term.

UJ is due for a 3 wave correction down after completing this 5 wave structure up so I would imagine that is should be topping out right about were its trading but could extend up to 114 before reversing lower. . .

Btw, good charts. . .
Glad you liked the charts. From your previous post I misinterpreted your reference to "topping" out as forming a double top..lol. Where do you see this wave 3 correction extending to taking that possible wave 5 extension to 114 into consideration or as you suggest the highly likely scenario of the wave 5 not playing out with a straight shot towards the wave 3? Trying to learn something from all the seniors here.

Your posts are a source of inspiration for me..I would go far as to say my positive trades this week were made after following your comments closely. You have been a shining example of a successful trader and truly deserve the 1Kt tag that is given to experienced traders. To say the least, one of the star players on FF. In my book you will always remain at the top. Looking forward to more refreshing and educational posts from you!
  • #55,263
  • Edited 2:34pm Dec 14, 2007 11:05am | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Does anyone feel that this pair is becomming somewhat disconnected from the equity markets? It seems that if there is a big equity move it will follow, but 150 points or less in Dow seems to be almost ignored. This is a big problem for me because my expertise lies in fundamental analysis of US economy. If this pair disconnects, I am in trouble---I am a pretty good chartist, but not good enough to make a living doing it! Any thoughts would be appreciated.
I think a lot of what you've noticed lately comes from the way U/J and G/U have been moving in opposite directions. G/J price changes are mostly derived from changes to these two pairs (the other major factor being carry trades). U/J does respond favorably when the equity markets rally. But lately some G/J price gains have been muted or totally cancelled out a falling G/U. When the pound was relatively stable this wasn't much of an issue, and a rise in U/J would be reflected in G/J.
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  • #55,264
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:09am Dec 14, 2007 11:09am
A strong decline seems likely in the next few hours. The GBPJPY is likely to under 227,42 in wave iii of C complete an A-B-C correction. Look for a bottom in the 226,90 area (61,8% of 224,79-230,33).This pattern should resolve itself by Monday.
Commentary from Jaimie Saettle,Currency Analyst.
Best regards and nice weekend.
Good luck from Monday
  • #55,265
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:33am Dec 14, 2007 11:33am
Quoting quecee5
GU has started it slide to 2.0000, GJ sliding, UJ struggling at current price. These may be signs of what next week will bring. . . .
It might be. Or GU could recover and retrace back up. It's done it before. But it's not looking good right now . . .
  • #55,266
  • Edited 1:17pm Dec 14, 2007 12:25pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting forexnovice
Glad you liked the charts. From your previous post I misinterpreted your reference to "topping" out as forming a double top..lol. Where do you see this wave 3 correction extending to taking that possible wave 5 extension to 114 into consideration or as you suggest the highly likely scenario of the wave 5 not playing out with a straight shot towards the wave 3? Trying to learn something from all the seniors here.

Your posts are a source of inspiration for me..I would go far as to say my positive trades this week were made after following your comments closely. You have been a shining example of a successful trader and truly deserve the 1Kt tag that is given to experienced traders. To say the least, one of the star players on FF. In my book you will always remain at the top. Looking forward to more refreshing and educational posts from you!
Forexnovice,

Thanks for the gentle and kind words.
I think u 2 are a shining star on FF and your analysis speak for itself. Keep up the good work and continue to bless this forum with your knowlegde.

As for UJ, Once it got thru 112.56 resistance (50% fib) using 117.92- 107.24 to draw your fib lines then next resistance was 61.8 fib @ 113.80's or so. It got to a high of 113.62 which may be a enough or could be different on different platforms who knows, nonetheless, this is all looking at a daily. . .

If you draw parallel lines from the bottom and top uptrend channel, right above the 61.8% fib there is the 100 EMA @ 114.21 as well as the uptrend channel resistance @ about 114.50's. In addition there is resistance dated back Feb/March 2002 and Nov/Dec 2005 @ 114.28 if you look at a monthly chart. So there is still some room for it to move up but it looks a bit exhausted up here. So I think we'll see a move lower soon, maybe early next week which could/should take GJ with it since GU has broken lower support and is on its way to 2.000.

As for where do I see it headed with 3 waves down, well based on HTF charts (which I will upload over the weekend b/c's I'm not at home) I see, 1st it drifting back under 112.75 then I see 112.17, 111.00 then 109.XX. . . If 109 breaks then back to 107 and maybe 105. . .
  • #55,267
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:31pm Dec 14, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting shahroodi
poooooof
another bad day with endless fight and lack of tolerance in this thread.
i'm sad for my favorite thread.
unfortunately
Hope you gain in next week my friend from shahrood, may SAARI.
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #55,268
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:33pm Dec 14, 2007 12:33pm
I think GJ might take another run at the mid 229's before heading down. Big boys probably want to earn the interest before the week is out and they will send it downwards after 5Pm eastern. I am going to hold on to my shorts from 228.70 and 228. Have a good weekend guys
  • #55,269
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:35pm Dec 14, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
It might be. Or GU could recover and retrace back up. It's done it before. But it's not looking good right now . . .
Yeah considering its broken lower support. Last week during BOE rate announcement it bounced off of 2.01984 support. This support should now provide some level of reistance. . .
  • #55,270
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:37pm Dec 14, 2007 12:37pm
Price is bouncing off the 4H Gann for the 3rd time, pretty strong support @ 228.50 area
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,271
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:57pm Dec 14, 2007 12:57pm
Dow is down over 180 points and GJ is not moving at all. This tells me big boys are loading up to take this higher to earn interest. Boys might start buying after DOW closes's and after 5PM eastern this thing is going to make a U-Turn too bad for Interbank FX users they close trading at 4PM EST. SUcks!
  • #55,272
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:58pm Dec 14, 2007 12:58pm
I've just posted a few times and charts over the past few weeks and I just want to say thank you very much for the people who are trying to help new people like me. Two things I'm still learning is "PATIENCE" and also a lot of people post "what they think the market will do". But what I have learned so far from Forexnovice, Quecce5, Karmo and many others is, Trade what your chart says and not what you think. I know I left people out so I thank you too. I've only been trading for 2 months and learn everyday.
  • #55,273
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:59pm Dec 14, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting Pyramid
Hope you gain in next week my friend from shahrood, may SAARI.
what????
  • #55,274
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:16pm Dec 14, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting pip_designer
I've just posted a few times and charts over the past few weeks and I just want to say thank you very much for the people who are trying to help new people like me. Two things I'm still learning is "PATIENCE" and also a lot of people post "what they think the market will do". But what I have learned so far from Forexnovice, Quecce5, Karmo and many others is, Trade what your chart says and not what you think. I know I left people out so I thank you too. I've only been trading for 2 months and learn everyday.
  • #55,275
  • Edited Dec 15, 2007 7:16am Dec 14, 2007 1:32pm | Edited Dec 15, 2007 7:16am
Quoting karmostaji
Price is bouncing off the 4H Gann for the 3rd time, pretty strong support @ 228.50 area
Good point because I was expecting to see at least 227.80/228 but it has been ranging between 228.30/229.xx.

If it goes up I think it will touch the 50% fib and maybe touch the 100 ema @ 232.76 or so. The reason I say this is GU is now facing resistance @ 2.01984 and higher so it will be limited to how high it can go. UJ can move up a bit more but it too is facing resistance up above into the 114/114.50 area if it gets there. . .

My guess is we all may be in for a surprise next week to the downside, the up moves look a bit tired IMO.
  • #55,276
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:45pm Dec 14, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting quecee5
Good point because I was expecting to see at least 227.80/228 but has been ranging between 228.30/229.xx.

If it goes up I think it will touch the 50% fib and maybe touch the 100 ema @ 232.76 or so. The reason I say this is GU is now facing resistance @ 2.01984 and higher sp it will be limited to how it can go up. UJ can move up a bit more but is also facing resistance up above into the 114/114.50 area if it get s there. . .

My guess is we all may be in for a surprise next week to the downside, the upmoves look a bit tired IMO.
I sincerely thank all of you who have benn patient with me and i apologixze if i have offended anyone was not my intetion.... u will rarely see me post from now on as i have too much respect for this thread and all of you ( you all know who you are)

i have run a mouteki anlaysis as i learn trend and try to incorporate with aus system....(or at least i think i did as i am just starting learning) and i was thinking that the support line (demand line) was broken at about 228.95 or so indicating a drop to 225.87? does anybody see this? could somebody comment or show a chart where you have support line (demand line)??/ it would help me tremendously
  • #55,277
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:13pm Dec 14, 2007 2:13pm
As I had predicted earlier. Big boys have earned their interest and now the fall is is going to happen. As per Aus;'s blog if this thing closes below 228.30 then we will see 226 before going back up again.
  • #55,278
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:54pm Dec 14, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting quecee5
Yeah considering its broken lower support. Last week during BOE rate announcement it bounced off of 2.01984 support. This support should now provide some level of reistance. . .
It could be an interesting week. Until then have a great weekend, my friend!

  • #55,279
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:24pm Dec 14, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting vinesh2
As I had predicted earlier. Big boys have earned their interest and now the fall is is going to happen. As per Aus;'s blog if this thing closes below 228.30 then we will see 226 before going back up again.
what broker do u use thats open on the weekends?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #55,280
  • Dec 15, 2007 9:26am Dec 15, 2007 9:26am
Quoting dagoods
I sincerely thank all of you who have benn patient with me and i apologixze if i have offended anyone was not my intetion.... u will rarely see me post from now on as i have too much respect for this thread and all of you ( you all know who you are)

i have run a mouteki anlaysis as i learn trend and try to incorporate with aus system....(or at least i think i did as i am just starting learning) and i was thinking that the support line (demand line) was broken at about 228.95 or so indicating a drop to 225.87? does anybody see this? could somebody comment or show a chart where you have support line (demand line)??/ it would help me tremendously
Here's a chart for you to analyze. Let me know what you think.

Feedback welcomed!

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