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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,201
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:22am Dec 14, 2007 7:22am
The ridiculous pictures have taken over the thread! Save yourselves!
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  • #55,202
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:23am Dec 14, 2007 7:23am
Grabbed my pips before 12, so I got some rest. Sorry to hear about the idiots this morning.
  • #55,203
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:25am Dec 14, 2007 7:25am
just thought id share too i know the consesus is turning bullish for G/Y but i still think that it may bounce from the 1 HR gann-hilo and then perhaps resume downtrend..

anythoughts?
  • #55,204
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:27am Dec 14, 2007 7:27am
STOP IT RIGHT NOW...JUST FELL FROM MY CHAIR LAUGHING..
  • #55,205
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:28am Dec 14, 2007 7:28am
Quoting mr.m
just thought id share too i know the consesus is turning bullish for G/Y but i still think that it may bounce from the 1 HR gann-hilo and then perhaps resume downtrend..

anythoughts?
It's definitely possible, that's why we wait for confirmations before pulling the trigger
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,206
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:39am Dec 14, 2007 7:39am
CPI came out better than expected, is it enough for the DOW to rally today? who knows.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,207
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:39am Dec 14, 2007 7:39am
Resistance levels at least change to support once crossed and vice versa, but would not say that about trendlines?

Yep, there was a bounce, but that matches perfectly to 38,2 fib level too, and that bounce seems to b coming back down from IntradayR1 fib level (76.4). So who knows...

R

Quoting MMDealer
Once a trend line is broken, it often becomes support (when initially resistance) or resistance (when initially support). This happens time and time again. Right?

PS. I think we just got that bouce - breaking out of the down sloping wedge to the upside... DLHC.
  • #55,208
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:49am Dec 14, 2007 7:49am
Well, I'll step out on a limb and post this idea again. This Daily chart shows that price retraced from the last major move down and banged off of the 38.2 Fib line three times. At that point, notice that Stochastics was OB, so price retreated back down to a bit beneath the 61.8 Fib of that move up. Price did not achieve a lower low at that time, but rather it turned back up. Notice that Stochastics turned back up as well right around the its 50 line. We have since achieved new highs, which include two Day-closes above the 38.2 Fib line. Today could end up bearish, based upon Daily Momentum indicators, but IMO, before any major move down, price is going to go back up and hit at least the 50 Fib line at 231.30, and it could decide to go all the way up to the 61.8 Fib at 233.70, which you'll notice is also right near the Daily 200 EMA. How's that for serious, Arezab?

M2B
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  • #55,209
  • Dec 14, 2007 7:57am Dec 14, 2007 7:57am
Quoting karmostaji
It's definitely possible, that's why we wait for confirmations before pulling the trigger
Thanks Karmo! your comments are especially appreciated! lets wait and see.. im looking at the 229.40 area to short..
  • #55,210
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:07am Dec 14, 2007 8:07am
Quoting mr.m
Thanks Karmo! your comments are especially appreciated! lets wait and see.. im looking at the 229.40 area to short..
Hmmmmm. I'm not sure about shorts right now, unless they're short shorts. Price has just bounced off of the 100SMA on the 1H chart, twice. Price is still beneath the Daily pivot, around 229, but it's close enough to the pivot to go either way, and with that bounce off of the 100 SMA I might be looking more for longs at this point. Aus' 15M strategy would be looking for longs next before shorts as well. I'd want to see a 1H close beneath the 100SMA before shorting at this point. Here's a 1h chart, but don't let me sway you from what you want to trade. You need to trade whatever you see in the charts.

M2B

PS- make that three bounces off of the 100 SMA. It just hit it again as I was taking a picture of the chart.
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  • #55,211
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:13am Dec 14, 2007 8:13am
There is a Head and shoulders pattern on the 1 hr.

Edit: A break below todays low would see the h/s play out before longs take over. Just a thought.
  • #55,212
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:17am Dec 14, 2007 8:17am
Quoting PipChick
There is a Head and shoulders pattern on the 1 hr.

Edit: A break below todays low would see the h/s play out before longs take over. Just a thought.
The neckline is down 500+ pips... does that realy qualify for a H&S?
  • #55,213
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:18am Dec 14, 2007 8:18am
That is a nice analysis.

But, what arguments do you exactly have to support the conclusion about price going up? You say that momentum is bearish, and also stochs seem to near to OB limit. So imo the conclusion is that price will move down, not up? What do i miss here?

Ok, you sent an other post after the first one which pretty much answers to my questions. Thanks.

Closed my shorts at daily pivot. Hope i do not regret this on Monday.

R

Quoting my2buoys
Well, I'll step out on a limb and post this idea again. This Daily chart shows that price retraced from the last major move down and banged off of the 38.2 Fib line three times. At that point, notice that Stochastics was OB, so price retreated back down to a bit beneath the 61.8 Fib of that move up. Price did not achieve a lower low at that time, but rather it turned back up. Notice that Stochastics turned back up as well right around the its 50 line. We have since achieved new highs, which include two Day-closes above the 38.2 Fib line. Today could end up bearish, based upon Daily Momentum indicators, but IMO, before any major move down, price is going to go back up and hit at least the 50 Fib line at 231.30, and it could decide to go all the way up to the 61.8 Fib at 233.70, which you'll notice is also right near the Daily 200 EMA. How's that for serious, Arezab?

M2B
  • #55,214
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:23am Dec 14, 2007 8:23am
1 hr g/j h/s
We are also trading under the 200 ema on the 4 hr and the 50 ema on the 1 hr.
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  • #55,215
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:23am Dec 14, 2007 8:23am
Now.. what everybody going to say?
Anything else more?

After all the news had been released this week.. much assumption, theory and analysis had been made, the price stuck at 228.60 - 80 now..
  • #55,216
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:28am Dec 14, 2007 8:28am
Quoting PipChick
1 hr g/j h/s
We are also trading under the 200 ema on the 4 hr and the 50 ema on the 1 hr.
thanks for the chart and clarification - I was looking at a biger H&S set-up with the neck below 225
  • #55,217
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:32am Dec 14, 2007 8:32am
Quoting fer
today being the last day of the week , i dont expect much massive movements. shorter term profit targets should be in play. as it is the market has been very slow today. trade what one can.

fer.

to rusty/rusted--are you still sitting there for cpi to have given you 200 pips and more? read above

suddenly everyone now starts thinking about locking profits when they are short. and when i locked them in they complained i was scalping. guess you know whos having the last laugh.

and funnily the one who keeps on posting pics think he's being funny. let me bring you to reality as you have been called the hall monitor before. your pics aint that funny. lets see how this boils you up now. oops forgot i am in your ignore list. lol

stop dreaming about 200-300 pip moves today. trade wise.

some say short some say long i say read the above quote, close your computers and have a good weekend.

fer
  • #55,218
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:33am Dec 14, 2007 8:33am
Quoting narocc
Now.. what everybody going to say?
Anything else more?

After all the news had been released this week.. much assumption, theory and analysis had been made, the price stuck at 228.60 - 80 now..

ask rustyy, he thinks this is going to move 200 pips after CPI. lol

l8r all.
  • #55,219
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:33am Dec 14, 2007 8:33am
Quoting Rocroy
That is a nice analysis.

But, what arguments do you exactly have to support the conclusion about price going up? You say that momentum is bearish, and also stochs seem to near to OB limit. So imo the conclusion is that price will move down, not up? What do i miss here?

Ok, you sent an other post after the first one which pretty much answers to my questions. Thanks.

Closed my shorts at daily pivot. Hope i do not regret this on Monday.

R
M2B's analysis is quite understandable. I believe he is a longer term trader. Thinking critically and looking at the bigger picture.....the example of the h/s on the 1 hr is simply a h/s within a larger INVERSE h/s on the 1 hr. IMO and from what I have seen in the past, the price may have a hard time breaking the lo of today and if it does, it may only go short to the lo of yesterdays spike down before going long in order to keep the INVERSE and more powerful h/s intact.
  • #55,220
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:39am Dec 14, 2007 8:39am
Since it is fri I will wait for either a bounce off of yesterdays lo to buy or a break of the INVERSE 1 hr h/s. I prefer the longer term trades too. Patience.
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