The ISM Report for January 3, 2007

Quoting REPApips

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Isn't there a difference between simply saying it could go up, down or stay the same, and saying it will do one of the three depending on some specific ISM results?

Or perhaps you were looking for a prediction of the actual ISM number rather than the behaviour of the market based on the number?

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Quoting robbooker

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That's a good question. You'll see at the start of the thread that I said:

"If the number is below 49.00, I expect the GBPUSD to rise at least 150 pips within 48 hours. If the number is above 52.00, I expect the GBPUSD to fall at least 150 pips (and probably more) within 48 hours. If the number is between 49.50 and 52.00, then the GBPUSD might bounce around until Friday’s employment report."

The number was 51.4, which means that I believed that it would bounce around around until Friday's employment report.

At 10:00am, the GBPUSD traded at 1.9575 or so. The report came out, and it fell over the next few hours to just below 1.9490. I believe it will now bounce around, up and down, even for the next few days.

If the report had been below 49.00 or above 52.00, I think we would have seen a move in a single direction of 150 pips as I talked about above. Because the report did not fall outside those numbers, I think that now (GBPUSD trading at about 1.9510) the GBPUSD can go back up to 1.9550 or so, then maybe back down, then maybe back up -- all until Friday's employment report gives us more information.

These are not guarantees or anything, but what I am saying is that a report that was farther outside the expectations would have created more movement than we have even seen so far.

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Quoting REPApips

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Yes, that's what I thought. Thanks and please continue posting your thoughts on the ISM and other reports in the future.

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Quoting Mama007

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There is an ISM non manufacturing report from US today - Is this a big mover as well - does anyone know - Thanks

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