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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #55,001
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:45pm Dec 13, 2007 12:45pm
Quoting mrhurley1
there goes that trendline..bears?
Maybe? We still have DOW in play
Do not follow my trades. Trade what you see on your own charts.
  • #55,002
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:50pm Dec 13, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Anything can happen, but what is most likely? 1) Fed continues to prop up Dow using anyone of the many bullets in its gun--I will not go into all of the bullets, but there are many. Even the suggestion of further easing by the Fed sends the market into insane buying mode. There are many other options, but cuts would need to be exhausted before they pulled out the heavy artillary. Under this scenerio, Wall St. gets big bonuses at year end, politicans are happy, all is well. 2) Fed lets Dow collapse--recession, maybe depression, traders jumping out of windows in New York, Bernanke labeled as biggest screw up in history. Basically everthing ever written in one of Markum's posts.

Anything can happen, but what is most likely?

this analysis has nothing to do with the next 500 pip move for GJ. I am responding to a comment about crash and meltdown.

The Fed hasn't got the weapons in it's arsenal that you give them credit for, in fact I suggest that they won't even pierce the skin of the credit crisis. Interest rate reductions only work in the short term. Flooding the markets with money will eventually filter down to inflate prices, which then ties their hands so they can't even reap the short term gains from rate cuts (which in turn cause more inflation). The only thing that is holding the whole thing up is the confidence in the ability of the CB's to turn it around. The more they tinker and the less effects they have, the more shaky these foundations look as the confidence ebbs away.
  • #55,003
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:03pm Dec 13, 2007 1:03pm
Quoting birdt
The Fed hasn't got the weapons in it's arsenal that you give them credit for, in fact I suggest that they won't even pierce the skin of the credit crisis. Interest rate reductions only work in the short term. Flooding the markets with money will eventually filter down to inflate prices, which then ties their hands so they can't even reap the short term gains from rate cuts (which in turn cause more inflation). The only thing that is holding the whole thing up is the confidence in the ability of the CB's to turn it around. The more they tinker and the less effects they have, the more shaky these foundations look as the confidence ebbs away.
Ok, for fun, I'll give just one of many possible scenario's (fed reserve working with Executive Branch)

Example:

Us announces today that it will be dropping 1/2 of its gold resrves on the market.....result...gold falls to 100-200 per ounce in a week, collapsing all other commodity prices including oil. commodity collapse sends stocks soaring as as inflation outlook falls to zero.

As I said earlier, we would have to get to 1% funds rate or lower before any of many more drastic moves could be made. Last time Funds rate got that low it sparked on of the biggest wealth creation periods in the history of man.
Don't get me wrong---I believe in total collapse---but I just don't think US will go down without a fight and it would still take many more years to play out.
  • #55,004
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:06pm Dec 13, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting igmak
I don't see reversal to the short side. Aus 15 min had a long signal a while ago. Also, it is in uptrend channel as Karm said earlier. All we need is patience.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #55,005
  • Edited 1:53pm Dec 13, 2007 1:19pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting mrhurley1
there goes that trendline..bears?
Need a close beneath the upward trendline on the 1hr chart to really signal bearish. Otherwise we must assume its operating within its channel range.

The bottom of the channel/trendline in this case happens to be right ar'd the daily pivot. . .Therfore, a close beneath it could open the door for a return to the 50% fib line and even the 61.8%. . .

GJ has to get through daily pivot, then 4hr s1 support before we can signal bearish. However, I do think GJ will have a difficult time getting above the falling trendline (for now) at the top of the channel (229 area, keeps getting rejected so far) and resistance @ 229.30 based on price action over the last couple of hours. . .

One thing I can say, if longs have patience (maybe later today) they will reap the benefits (even if GJ drops to as low as 227.80/90's). As I see UJ going to 112.75/112.93 within the next couple of sessions (maybe, my timing has been off lately). Therefore GJ could end the week literally on a high note (229.90/230.40/231.70, or higher. . .)

My two cents
  • #55,006
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:27pm Dec 13, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Ok, for fun, I'll give just one of many possible scenario's (fed reserve working with Executive Branch)

Example:

Us announces today that it will be dropping 1/2 of its gold resrves on the market.....result...gold falls to 100-200 per ounce in a week, collapsing all other commodity prices including oil. commodity collapse sends stocks soaring as as inflation outlook falls to zero.

As I said earlier, we would have to get to 1% funds rate or lower before any of many more drastic moves could be made. Last time Funds rate got that low it sparked on of the biggest wealth creation periods in the history of man.
Don't get me wrong---I believe in total collapse---but I just don't think US will go down without a fight and it would still take many more years to play out.
Appreciate your posts Helps me see the fundamentals more clearly. What are the other possible scenarios you think will stall the so-called US recession ?
  • #55,007
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:42pm Dec 13, 2007 1:42pm
CB intervention has never been anything other than a short term fix, and this time the concerted effort by several CBs shows just how serious the problem is.

Here's something that I posted elsewhere...

"Amongst these was the suggestion that, in order to avoid an immediate severe financial crisis the Fed (and other CBs) would try to postpone the effects of this crisis for as long as possible. This not only would allow the markets time to assimulate the problem, but it would also pass much of it on to future generations - of bankers, politicians and Joe Public.

Also, it was pointed out that the subprime issue was much smaller than that of corporate debt and the leverage applied to it, which dwarfs the sub prime debt.

The ammounts outstanding in Credit Default Swaps, High Yield Bonds (aka Junk Bonds) and other largely uncollaterised debts are astronomical - CDS contracts alone now total some $45.5 Trillion or ~5 X the US National Debt and > 3 X US GDP.

So I guess that its not surprising that the CBs are stepping in to help their fellow bankers and keep the party going for as long as possible - how long that will be, only time will tell - but expect more wild days ahead!"

Just dont expect this problem to get solved any time soon - and expect some viscous moves, so keep good MM as your first priority.
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  • #55,008
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:47pm Dec 13, 2007 1:47pm
Am still holding to my long until i see it breaks the daily pivot or the channel
  • #55,009
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:18pm Dec 13, 2007 2:18pm
Thank you Islander. The auctions FED will be holding on 17 & 20 to inject 40 BLN into ailing banking sector look like peanuts compared to the huge amounts outstanding in CDS and other uncollatarized debt you mentioned previously. Now I understand why the major CBs are making concentrated efforts to keep the ship from sinking. The doom and gloom that many have been talking about makes more sense now.
  • #55,010
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:45pm Dec 13, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting kdoubled01
Am still holding to my long until i see it breaks the daily pivot or the channel
I'm with you, can't afford another lose.
  • #55,011
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:00pm Dec 13, 2007 3:00pm
Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is due later today. From what I understand its going to be negative and this may effect the yen. So IMO if you are long on GJ it would be good news for you guys. Shorts well all I can say is hold on to your shorts or use SL's cause when UK markets opens this thing maybe come down to the the lower level's. 227's or even 226. Just my opinion
  • #55,012
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:17pm Dec 13, 2007 3:17pm
Quoting vinesh2
Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is due later today. From what I understand its going to be negative and this may effect the yen. So IMO if you are long on GJ it would be good news for you guys. Shorts well all I can say is hold on to your shorts or use SL's cause when UK markets opens this thing maybe come down to the the lower level's. 227's or even 226. Just my opinion
Vinesh thk for your info will watch it
carl
  • #55,013
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:35pm Dec 13, 2007 3:35pm
Has anybody seen the buy or sell signal of this strategy in last two days? May be somebody could give me a price and date/time point to find-out the enter and compare it with my template?

Thank you in advance...
  • #55,014
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:54pm Dec 13, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting forexnovice
Appreciate your posts Helps me see the fundamentals more clearly. What are the other possible scenarios you think will stall the so-called US recession ?
Well, there are many. I'll give one more and maybe some others can get creative and post some. Remember, we are talking collapse prevention or postponement here---not the normal ups and downs in the market---let's say Dow below 7,000.

Example:

The US president announced today that all areas of the US are now open for oil drilling and exploration. That's right folks---Alasksa, California off shore, Florida off shore---it's all fair game. Come and get the oil!!--result--oil falls to $20 a barrell as the world is glutted with excess capacity as never before. With almost free oil, the US economy ramps up again creating massive wealth.

Again, this does not solve the problem that the US gov and citizens spend a lot more than they take in. The end game can only be disaster if this is not corrected. But it can be forstalled for quite some time.
  • #55,015
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:00pm Dec 13, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, there are many. I'll give one more and maybe some others can get creative and post some. Remember, we are talking collapse prevention or postponement here---not the normal ups and downs in the market---let's say Dow below 7,000.

Example:

The US president announced today that all areas of the US are now open for oil drilling and exploration. That's right folks---Alasksa, California off shore, Florida off shore---it's all fair game. Come and get the oil!!--result--oil falls to $20 a barrell as the world is glutted with excess capacity as never before. With almost free oil, the US economy ramps up again creating massive wealth.

Again, this does not solve the problem that the US gov and citizens spend a lot more than they take in. The end game can only be disaster if this is not corrected. But it can be forstalled for quite some time.
I haven't kept in line with oil for a while now. Did this already happen or is it just a theoretical scenario that could take place? If this were to happen, I don't see that it would create that great of a scenario actually. People, with the oil crisis at the moment still fresh in their minds, would only look to buy into oil at that price. With the US being on top of the oil scene then, it would become wealthier, although there are consequences and repercussions with that thought. With the OPEC nations not playing the role as full supplier anymore, I could seriously see that leading to war; not just like the war with Iraq, but a full scale war. This is because once you have power, you really don't like to have it discarded from your arsenal.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,016
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:02pm Dec 13, 2007 4:02pm
Actually, for the time being, it could probably drop the dollar lower. This is because it will take a while to get the equipment needed and to actually start the drilling process. After that initial "roadbump", I'd say look out. This could be an opportunity of a lifetime for us investors.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,017
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:05pm Dec 13, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting Islander
Just dont expect this problem to get solved any time soon - and expect some viscous moves, so keep good MM as your first priority.
__________________
I would rate this as top post of the year. Money management, ladies and gentlemen, is what will keep you and your accounts alive in this business.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #55,018
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:07pm Dec 13, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting boomerang
Has anybody seen the buy or sell signal of this strategy in last two days? May be somebody could give me a price and date/time point to find-out the enter and compare it with my template?

Thank you in advance...
Boomerang. I could have wanted to show you my template but I don't know how to copy charts to this forum. However, there was a buy signal on the 15 min chart at 0445 EST on the GBPJPY this morning. Then at 1100 EST, there was a false sell signal that I did not worry about coz my QQE 60 did not cross-over. Besides I thought, there was a lot of Dow volatility affecting the GBPJPY today.
I trade the GBPJPY on the 15min time frame and my method is based on a modified "Auslanco 15min strategy" I couldn't download his indicators so I worked out mine that seem to work well.
  • #55,019
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:16pm Dec 13, 2007 4:16pm
Well price has finally broken out of the triangle. A candle hasn't closed yet so still some bearish probability. I've been a bull since 12:00 so I'm happy to see it finally go the other way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,020
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:39pm Dec 13, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting DollaBill
Well price has finally broken out of the triangle. A candle hasn't closed yet so still some bearish probability. I've been a bull since 12:00 so I'm happy to see it finally go the other way.

it broke through so slowly without real conviction i'm not convinced yet
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