Technical Analysis Fallacy

i have actually made 35 profitable trades out of 37, with 15 in a row.
why? i quit my stop losses and reduced my leverage. problem is i work so i used to want to make 1 good trade a day by overleveraging myself thus exiting a trade if 20-30pips against.

i confess i havent masterd the art of dancing with the chart bt i definitely learnt a thing or two here.

thanks fti, leigh and u all. believe.

FTI's take on this afternoon's Central Bank intervention was illuminating and reminded me of a number of articles on US and other countries debts that I have read during the past few weeks.

Amongst these was the suggestion that, in order to avoid an immediate severe financial crisis the Fed (and other CBs) would try to postpone the effects of this crisis for as long as possible. This not only would allow the markets time to assimulate the problem, but it would also pass much of it on to future generations - of bankers, politicians and Joe Public.

Also, it was pointed out that the subprime issue was much smaller than that of corporate debt and the leverage applied to it, which dwarfs the sub prime debt.

The ammounts outstanding in Credit Default Swaps, High Yield Bonds (aka Junk Bonds) and other largely uncollaterised debts are astronomical - CDS contracts alone now total some $45.5 Trillion or ~5 X the US National Debt and > 3 X US GDP.

So I guess that its not surprising that the CBs are stepping in to help their fellow bankers and keep the party going for as long as possible - how long that will be, only time will tell - but expect more wild days ahead!

Congratulations, crazy_bdog and jku!

Wow, crazy_bdog, you have been a member here on FF since 2006, yet this is your first post?

I had noticed that Scoundrel was the same.

Gosh, we feel so honored that you both have chosen this thread to make your first post appearance! Thank you for sharing your results and comments with us!

I re-read this entire thread during the past couple days, and it was like reading most of it for the first time.

I'm also getting aquainted with the Art of War, and seem to prefer this "no frills" version the best:

http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html#01

My favorite saying of Sun Tzu so far:

"If you know the enemy and know yourself,
your victory will not stand in doubt;
if you know Heaven and know Earth,
you may make your victory complete."

Let's get it on!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60440 , i think this article would complement the forum ...

Hi P_C - thanks for that clarified version of the AOW - I'd already started pulling it down chapter by chapter and this has saved me the work.

I'll do my AOW homework over the weekend - mustn't get into the Boss Lady's bad books or she be looking for her whip!

I have also been re-reading the thread, but have stopped to ride a couple of this week's wild swings - whilst today may be more nornal, tomorrow could be wild again. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Glad the AOW thing helped.

It has been a wild week. But I think G/J has a couple hundred more pips reserved for you today.

Fti, thank you for your reply, just got to it now, had a frustrating couple of sessions as my orders didn't get filled even though the market was there. But after the long battle that occured, (not with the market this time) but a broker, everything was rectified to my benefit.
Your views are greatly appreciated as it gives me a slightly different perspective to keep in the back of my head. The markets are getting thinner and wilder, time to take some rest and come back after the New Year. I had read the AOW a very long time ago, now rereading it again and trully enjoying. It's application to markets is priceless.

Hi fti

Have posted once before. Can't reply to pm yet. Really enjoy your thread and approach to trading. Am busy reading AOw. Not much free time as am full time mom as well as trying to trade and this time of year is hectic here in Holland. Sinterklaas has just come and gone and Christmas activities have started.

Just want to thank you for opening my eyes in that indicators cannot be trusted and that I must make sure that I am in the drivers seat when dancing with the market.

Wish you a wonderful holiday with ur family and a great big thank you for steering me on the right trading course.

many thanks

Hi fti, I have been a bit busy also and I've just recovered from a Christmas party. I have so much reading to do including re-reading this thread. If I get time, I may even summarise it into a document.

Since you are still here, I have another question. So you are a trend follower and I can see you are familiar with price action and patterns. Can you please let me know whether you reverse when you see reversal patterns? eg., would you short on a rising wedge or a head and shoulders at the confirmation level? Also, do you use support and resistance levels on larger timeframes?

Okay, fti is anxious for me to get started, and I am going to set the class standards ...

With first Chapter, we are going to discuss on Friday, so please have read it by then.

We gotta get through this like steadily and with a timeline, cuz I'm not going to be around forever either, lol.

* edited - And there's the "rescue" and "attack" sequences that fti and I are still discussing on whether people are ready for it. He wants to see the progress after the Sun Zi lessons, to be sure (cuz like he mentioned ... he's squeezing 1 - 2 years of training into too short a time). He's not in any way obligated to give any of us any more, so it's up to you to prove you are ready when the time comes. I can disclose this much ... those who are still using indicators are not ready. He has told me that much, cuz he said that indicators could kill you when using in the implementation of these missions. Just keep that in mind.

Anyway, the chapters are short and if you use the version that either Pips_Cruiser or I gave (which are the two bottom-most links that fti posted), then it's an easy read.

If you can't get to it by Friday, then you will have to just get to it when you can, but you will not be able to participate in giving your input, cuz we are going to need to move along without you, ok?

During the holidays, I am spending with my husband, too and you guys will be with your loved ones, but lessons will be posted throughout and discussions on it will have deadlines.

Again, this stuff is an easy read, so there shouldn't be a reason we need days-on-end to do this, lol.

This is the only way to get through this in a timely manner and not leave this whole thing undone.

Like the lesson of the sandpiper story ... live each day as if it will be your last.

So that's what we are going to do!

mm....please Mistress Leigh,....mm... but Friday is in 3 hours and 45 minutes, do I have to finish all of my homework by then.......?

Oops, oh I forgot our timezone differences, lol. Sorry about that. I meant my time Friday, haha, so I guess then, that's your time Saturday.

In any case, the lesson to participate will be open for about two days worth of discussions from when the Chapter lesson begins, so most people will be able to make it at some point, no?

Please, no discussions on the chapter until the deadline is due, cuz that wouldn't be fair to those not ready till Friday (or Saturday). I will post when to start discussing. Thanks everyone for your cooperation and (keeping my head intact, lol)

Leighsww
you lost me where are the lessons posted?
are you refering to AOW?

Yes, the AOW (Art of War) lessons. You need to read Chapter 1: Laying Plans (that's the first homework assignment).

LOL, sorry guys, but you may need to go back and reread my post the 2nd time you visit this thread, cuz I, just like fti, edit my posts, haha :

So, to not miss something I've added/edited, I recommend that you always read it a 2nd time when you revisit, lol (you don't need to go too far back, just probably only my last 2 posts normally).

Oh, and Islander ... DON'T call me MISTRESS!!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

Just to confirm that I haven't missed anything, I can see there is a lot of material on mindset. There is some on MM although I couldn't really pick much up on the technical aspect of entering and exiting trades. I have a question mark over my head with regard to that. Is there anything I should review or am I basically at the same level as most here?

There is a lot of hidden treasures within this thread, and although he hasn't given any technical instructions on exactly how to use them, they are there for everyone to keep in your minds for now and to deliberate to yourselves. Later, as these Sun Zi lessons unfold, they may start to come about in discussion.

Anyway, with that in mind, I direct you to two of his posts which covers some of the implementations of his MM and the "rescue" and "attack" missions:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=180
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=454

I had posted back awhile ago to David on how to rescue his losing trade, however, I had not given him the actual sequence due to his longer timeframe method and his risk management, however as time has progressed thus far, I am now really coming to learn this stuff more completely and see why it is important to stick to the actual sequences. Thus I have been trying to convince fti to let me (or him, if he's still going to be around) to teach you guys the actual sequences.

However, I can understand fti's viewpoint about many not being ready (even some of you polished traders), so like with his dealer trainees, he needs to know you are ready before disclosing such powerful information.

And you can argue that everyone is responsible for his own use of information, and that they use at their own risk, etc., etc., ... but fti is such a caring person and of high integrity and morals, that the welfare of others cannot be denied nor dismissed for him. So, please respect that is his feelings and it has nothing to do with insecurity, etc. on his part. He's just that caring for the welfare of others.

Okay, that being said ...

Now, because via this thread, he can't see each and every one of your guys' progress, what I am thinking might be the better route to go, is for us (or me, if fti can't do so due to his time constraints once he starts trading for himself) to hold private group sessions to teach this stuff. However, you will be screened and you need to follow this stuff to the letter, so if you are mainly doing long-term overnight trading, or if you cannot give up your indicators and the other stuff that will get in the way of experiencing/feeling the dance as it's unfolding, then you can just use whatever is already here that you can use, but best you do not participate in the private sessions.

The private sessions will NOT be at any cost, it will be completely FREE, however in order for me (or us) to give up my/our time to do this, your complete cooperation will be required, meaning, you will have to strip down naked (except for whatever I/we tell you you can use). I am going to check on your nakedness (don't worry, like fti said, size doesn't matter, and for the women, I'm not the jealous type so your size doesn't matter either), lol!!

Many of you post on FF in other threads, so you cannot get away with fooling me. I'm good CIA, haha.

Anyway, let's just get through these Sun Zi lessons first, and we will then decide what to do at that time. I basically will need fti's permission to pass on what he has taught me, so it's up to him to make that decision. I ask you to please respect whatever decision he makes (and please do not deluge him with PM's trying to convince him, because responding to PM's will take away from his time and energy for such a matter as this ... let him come to that decision himself as he sees fit), because to not do so would be very ungrateful for what he has so far generously exposed here on this thread at mainly my request (so don't make me have to feel guilty for that, cuz I have come to care about this man like a brother, so his welfare comes first for me).

Thank you all for understanding!

And for those who cannot understand, in the words of Antra, lol ... too bad! :

FTI,
The sandpiper story brought tears to my eyes , my daughter is 6 and it means much to me. Thanks.
The concubine story speaks to me of the importance and reality of taking demo seriously. Just as tui shou is nothing without form.
I have re-read AOW twice and was going to quote my favorite bits as per trading but will wait , looking forward to the teaching.
Swami S