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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,361
  • Dec 12, 2007 1:41pm Dec 12, 2007 1:41pm
The CAD trade balance was a billion dollars higher than estimates, aussie is +1.2%, kiwi is +2.3%, oil is up $4/barrel, and USDCAD is only -0.14%?

Does this seem odd to anyone else??
  • #2,362
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:03pm Dec 12, 2007 7:03pm
Yeh I am cautiously long the loonie tonite. It looks like it is making a stand at resistance of 1.02 The Fed liquidity injection is worrying as evidence of a larger slowdown in the world economy which would be a big negative for oil, gold and commodities in general.

Otherwise I think if the equity markets do not break apart then inflation will take over and commodity currencies are the place to be.
  • #2,363
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:47pm Dec 13, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting Trader KGB
The CAD trade balance was a billion dollars higher than estimates, aussie is +1.2%, kiwi is +2.3%, oil is up $4/barrel, and USDCAD is only -0.14%?

Does this seem odd to anyone else??
are you still long CAD? I am surprised by the market today.
  • #2,364
  • Dec 13, 2007 5:17pm Dec 13, 2007 5:17pm
Quoting mry2001
are you still long CAD? I am surprised by the market today.
Not right now. I have been a recent buyer of CADJPY in the 108 area and am looking to establish new positions in the 108-109 support area (or on a breakout above 111.80).

This pair typically has a correlation of nearly 90% to the price of spot crude, but since early November there has been a huge divergence (crude rallying while CADJPY fell drastically along with the carry trade). You can see on the attached chart the premium of crude price ascension (red line) vs that of CADJPY (green line). At some point this divergence is going to correct itself, and my guess is they're going to meet each other somewhere in the middle, say crude in the mid-$80s and CADJPY in the 115 range. If crude continues to rally, then it will only place greater upward pressure on CADJPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #2,365
  • Dec 13, 2007 5:56pm Dec 13, 2007 5:56pm
I have never seen this much attention paid to the CAD. I see allot of technical analysis and correlations to oil n such, but nobody seemed to mention that the USD/CAD started its reversal when the G20 said that the devaluation of the USD disproportionate in some pairs.
Keep it simple stoopid....
  • #2,366
  • Dec 13, 2007 6:03pm Dec 13, 2007 6:03pm
Beware of this pair guys.

just was short ucad from 1.0220. and exited cause price action panic attack for some reasons is trying to hold right there, we are not seeing decent retracements.

this pair is moving weird and would not like to get caught in this thing. this pair dont range, this thing explodes, the market probably is deciding what to do now. tomorrow we are getting COT.

BEWARE!!!!.
  • #2,367
  • Dec 13, 2007 6:07pm Dec 13, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting Kurka Fund
I have never seen this much attention paid to the CAD. I see allot of technical analysis and correlations to oil n such, but nobody seemed to mention that the USD/CAD started its reversal when the G20 said that the devaluation of the USD disproportionate in some pairs.
also finance minister calling retailers to price things in parity with US Dollar.
and also the boc saying they were cutting cause the currency was going to keep it strength and offset inflation pressures.

i am really confused about today moves. of course greenback has gain a lot today in many pairs but now is giving some gains, and ucad is not reacting appropiately.

cad it has just lost too much lately and seem is not stopping to make a break even when big traders are net shorts ucad.
  • #2,368
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:11pm Dec 13, 2007 7:11pm
I'm looking more at the intermediate term than intraday. C/J has tumbled going into mid-December every year since 2002. A recovery might not begin until Jan or later, and it could tumble lower until then. However, the crude vs C/J divergence rarely has extended this long or to this degree. C/J has been locked in a range since 11/21, and lately the range is getting tighter (coiling). There should be a breakout in the future and the odds favor the upside.
  • #2,369
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:22pm Dec 13, 2007 7:22pm
I agree that c/j should go up. If I can trade this pair, I will set a buy order at 112.0 sadly interbankfx doesnot allow me to trade it.
  • #2,370
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:03am Dec 14, 2007 2:03am
Quoting Trader KGB
I'm looking more at the intermediate term than intraday. C/J has tumbled going into mid-December every year since 2002. A recovery might not begin until Jan or later, and it could tumble lower until then. However, the crude vs C/J divergence rarely has extended this long or to this degree. C/J has been locked in a range since 11/21, and lately the range is getting tighter (coiling). There should be a breakout in the future and the odds favor the upside.
I'm right there with you KGB
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,371
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:46am Dec 14, 2007 10:46am
Looks like we'll get our C/J breakout sooner rather than later.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,372
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:37pm Dec 14, 2007 12:37pm
So what happened today? No high-impact news for CAD, but the currency is on a rampage, even though the $ has gone berserk too?
  • #2,373
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:39pm Dec 14, 2007 12:39pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Looks like we'll get our C/J breakout sooner rather than later.
Every indicator I had said it was due to take off, I just wish I bought more. Once the stops were run on UJ's 112.50 level last night, all signs were green. The question now becomes whether it can break its 200-day sma (111.72) and the 61.8 fib right above that (111.83). Once those are history, look out.
  • #2,374
  • Dec 14, 2007 12:41pm Dec 14, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Every indicator I had said it was due to take off, I just wish I bought more. Once the stops were run on UJ's 112.50 level last night, all signs were green. The question now becomes whether it can break its 200-day sma (111.72) and the 61.8 fib right above that (111.83). Once those are history, look out.
Yep. I don't know if I want to hold over the weekend though.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,375
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:21pm Dec 14, 2007 3:21pm
today I am up 600 pips on eur/cad.
  • #2,376
  • Dec 15, 2007 5:13am Dec 15, 2007 5:13am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
CCI is expanding from the top = here comes major volatile price action - elevators down and then stairs up again as it expands more and more towards the sell zone increasingly.
  • #2,377
  • Dec 15, 2007 9:56pm Dec 15, 2007 9:56pm
Quoting SPT
CCI is expanding from the top = here comes major volatile price action - elevators down and then stairs up again as it expands more and more towards the sell zone increasingly.

SPT,

Which TF are you referring to and could you define what you mean by 'expand' in your statement. I've almost got what you're saying.
  • #2,378
  • Dec 17, 2007 8:04am Dec 17, 2007 8:04am
again
anyone long the loonie??!!

I feel I'm the mover of this pair coz every time I initiate a position the market run in my way
  • #2,379
  • Dec 17, 2007 8:07am Dec 17, 2007 8:07am
Quoting Trader KGB
Yes and yes.
Hey Trader, Can you open a new thread to collect all your views and discussion on the different pairs?

I like your posts so much
it will be a great idea !
  • #2,380
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:25am Dec 17, 2007 9:25am
Loonie must be strong, good tic data this morning for USD which faked me out closed long loonie position , went long USD/CAD then closed that out, went short on the next leg down USD/CAD

must be some strong cross currents because NZD/USD keeps heading south.
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