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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,761
  • Dec 12, 2007 4:38pm Dec 12, 2007 4:38pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Only speculative trades. lol

Since we are proceeding with our final prognostications of the session:

The 4hr has performed it's obligatory kiss of the 5sma which
completes a minimum necessary retracement... (bullish)
The previous long legged doji (pin bar) with long wicks / bar is
simply a sign of strong indecision rather than a reversal.
The aforementioned hammer is a bullish reversal signal now confirmed
by the subsequent candle that closed higher.
The daily shows a bullish engulfing pattern in the making (~2 hrs
remaining),which could be a strong continuation signal of the upward
channel.
We haven't completed the 50% retrace on the daily charts for 11/01
thru 11/22.

The charts comfirm the market's head in the sand attitude towards
fundamentals wishing to promulgate the 'all is well in zion', 'emperor's new
clothes' notion when in fact there is really 'no new clothes' to display in
the parade.

Still the 'stockings are hung by the chimney with care', filled with stuffings
bought on credit.

absolutely beuatiful thank u! lol here comes santa!
  • #54,762
  • Edited 5:27pm Dec 12, 2007 4:46pm | Edited 5:27pm
is the weekly h&s formation still valid? i know the long term outlook is bearish anyway but normally, would a break of the neckline cancel out the pattern?
  • #54,763
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:01pm Dec 12, 2007 5:01pm
Quoting vinesh2
Lets go shorts. Short this sucker out!
a little miffed we haven't moved down more. hoping to see the 50% retrace of todays move but its crazy now.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,764
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:29pm Dec 12, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting moneymagnet
a little miffed we haven't moved down more. hoping to see the 50% retrace of todays move but its crazy now.
yep i thought just based on the fact that it went up so fast that there had to be a nice correction...but its not what we saw so far..... who knows what happens now with the crazy asians...maybe we spring up from this level as support off the aformentioned hammer and then form a nice bearish bat for a huge drop... just got to trade what u see i guess and stick to the system
  • #54,765
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:31pm Dec 12, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting fourxtrader
The daily shows a bullish engulfing pattern in the making ,which could be a strong continuation signal of the upward channel.

We haven't completed the 50% retrace on the daily charts for 11/01
thru 11/22.
Excellent analysis, my friend, on these two basic, yet major, points. (By the way, it's good to see you post again. It's been a long time no see, Bro). Have we already forgotten what happened yesterday folks? Everybody was hell-bent on yesterday being the beginning of the massive expected downfall, even though the high price, around 229.84, was dangling out there in the middle of nowhere. Yes, we have already discussed that price hit the Daily 50 EMA at that point, but the subsequent major move back up should have let us know that price will not be satisfied until it hits one of those Fibs above it. The 50 fib around 231.30 is the minimum high it will reach IMO. There is a 100 Fib, from a different down move, around 232.40 which is also a possibility, and then the 61.8 Fib of the bigger move down, around 233.60. Like Moneymagnet, I too expected a bigger retrace down from the most recent move up, and it still might happen before price shoots up higher. Price sometimes spikes through critical Fib lines before settling back beneath them, but very rarely does it fall short of these Fib lines and then run a full-scale reversal. Those Fibs are important to traders, even the big dogs. Notice the Stochastics on the Daily chart shows lots of room for moving up before price is OB. The Weekly Stochastics has also just crossed its signal line going up.

M2B
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy weekly.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #54,766
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:32pm Dec 12, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting dagoods
yep i thought just based on the fact that it went up so fast that there had to be a nice correction...but its not what we saw so far..... who knows what happens now with the crazy asians...maybe we spring up from this level as support off the aformentioned hammer and then form a nice bearish bat for a huge drop... just got to trade what u see i guess and stick to the system
I think we got a nice correction on it down to 228.75. It worked out picture perfect. Now that this is over, I am looking to see more upwards tomorrow because today finished very bullish.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,767
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:35pm Dec 12, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting my2buoys
Excellent analysis, my friend, on these two basic, yet major, points. (By the way, it's good to see you post again. It's been a long time no see, Bro). Have we already forgotten what happened yesterday folks? Everybody was hell-bent on yesterday being the beginning of the massive expected downfall, even though the high price, around 229.84, was dangling out there in the middle of nowhere. Yes, we have already discussed that price hit the Daily 50 EMA at that point, but the subsequent major move back up should have let us know that price will not be satisfied until it hits one of those Fibs above it. The 50 fib around 231.30 is the minimum high it will reach IMO. There is a 100 Fib, from a different down move, around 232.40 which is also a possibility, and then the 61.8 Fib of the bigger move down, around 233.60. Like Moneymagnet, I too expected a bigger retrace down from the most recent move up, and it still might happen before price shoots up higher. Price sometimes spikes through critical Fib lines before settling back beneath them, but very rarely does it fall short of these Fib lines and then run a full-scale reversal. Those Fibs are important to traders, even the big dogs. Notice the Stochastics on the Daily chart shows lots of room for moving up before price is OB. The Weekly Stochastics has also just crossed its signal line going up.

M2B
Nice stuff M2B! I always take heed to what you write, because it always has excellent reasoning to it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,768
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:42pm Dec 12, 2007 5:42pm
Quoting mike w
I think we got a nice correction on it down to 228.75. It worked out picture perfect. Now that this is over, I am looking to see more upwards tomorrow because today finished very bullish.
yeah but that was only a 23.6% retracement of the move from 224.80 to today's high. normally we see at least 38.2% of a move that powerful pretty quickly. was hoping to see 50% so that i could load longs (being selfish I know) but it could still happen. just ready to get my pips back currently taking karmo pills. LOL
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,769
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:51pm Dec 12, 2007 5:51pm
here is my chart with Gann Fann's on the 4 hourly daily and weekly
It helps showing direction
could go anywhere but would look nice if it goes to 237 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6ja.gif Size: 42 KB
Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
  • #54,770
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:53pm Dec 12, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting mike w
Nice stuff M2B! I always take heed to what you write, because it always has excellent reasoning to it.

thats good to learn thak u! query" does the fed "intervening" reset or screw up the tech fib line anlysis though? just wondering
  • #54,771
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:59pm Dec 12, 2007 5:59pm
Looks better on the daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6jab.gif Size: 40 KB
Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
  • #54,772
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:00pm Dec 12, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting Merc
here is my chart with Gann Fann's on the 4 hourly daily and weekly
It helps showing direction
could go anywhere but would look nice if it goes to 237 area
etch a sketch lol thats what it looks like when i draw pitchforks too its like the fed has reset everything to zero for the new year...lines everywhere....
  • #54,773
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:06pm Dec 12, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting moneymagnet
yeah but that was only a 23.6% retracement of the move from 224.80 to today's high. normally we see at least 38.2% of a move that powerful pretty quickly. was hoping to see 50% so that i could load longs (being selfish I know) but it could still happen. just ready to get my pips back currently taking karmo pills. LOL
Is the fall now part of the retracement for an upward move or it's goin to b a big fall per Aus blog?
  • #54,774
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:06pm Dec 12, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting moneymagnet
yeah but that was only a 23.6% retracement of the move from 224.80 to today's high. normally we see at least 38.2% of a move that powerful pretty quickly. was hoping to see 50% so that i could load longs (being selfish I know) but it could still happen. just ready to get my pips back currently taking karmo pills. LOL

finally the drop! woohoo for you!
  • #54,775
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:07pm Dec 12, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting joyrider
Is the fall now part of the retracement for an upward move or it's goin to b a big fall per Aus blog?
It's news related, not technical.
  • #54,776
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:10pm Dec 12, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting joyrider
Is the fall now part of the retracement for an upward move or it's goin to b a big fall per Aus blog?
probably both but who knows wait n see aus website not updated yet i think and his blog only list momntum on his blog at certain times u must have a confirmded signal with aus method b4 u trade it....
  • #54,777
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:17pm Dec 12, 2007 6:17pm
Quoting joyrider
Is the fall now part of the retracement for an upward move or it's goin to b a big fall per Aus blog?
If only we knew. With 1H Gann and QQE5 both crossed to the downside this move has got some credibility. 50fib around 237.60 looks like a good target. Got a bit of support to get through, in particular this trend line (red line) and median line (think blue intersecting TL) could throw a spanner in the works. If we get past the sky blue line, this mini uptrend is over according to the Andrews pitchfork I have drawn on my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hgannbreak1hqqecrossed.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #54,778
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:21pm Dec 12, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting joyrider
Is the fall now part of the retracement for an upward move or it's goin to b a big fall per Aus blog?
wish i knew. i will just look for reversal points around the 50% fib area if we get there along with aus' system.
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,779
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:35pm Dec 12, 2007 6:35pm
median line should provide support i think but lets see
  • #54,780
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:43pm Dec 12, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting dagoods
median line should provide support i think but lets see

heres what i see as possible: a weak attempt to 228.15 or 228.5 (major median lines) probably not even reaching there and then a bounce up higher to 231 or possibly 232 or higher unl;ess we break through the medain with conviction and then its different
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj pf m15.gif Size: 21 KB
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