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  • #541
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:24pm Dec 11, 2007 5:24pm
Wow fti, you have me wondering what the next gem will be you place on the table.

Thank you for blessing us with your time and wisdom, as a result I am much more at peace with my trading and may I say it with myself as well.

Leigh looking forward to classes starting soon.

Cheers and a Merry Xmas to all.
  • #542
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:49pm Dec 11, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting oztrader
Leigh looking forward to classes starting soon.
LOL, okay ... homework: Read "The Art of War", 1st Chapter "Laying Plans"

We will discuss after fti's last lesson and when ready, lol :

Happy Holidays!
  • #543
  • Edited 8:18pm Dec 11, 2007 6:59pm | Edited 8:18pm
I just finished taow last night, it was the Giles version with commentary, I'm now going to meditate on just Sun Tzu's chapters without commentary for a bit and relate it to the market, I had some ideas the first time around, another reading will do me good.
Thanks again Fti and Leigh for your efforts, I think I'm getting it pretty clearly now (at least I hope )
cheers,
Mick.

EDIT I've attached the Giles version, it has commentary on both the chapters and other translators commentary, the way it is written there can be many different interpretations and it was good to see a few different views from different people.
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt Giles_TAOW.txt   336 KB | 1,724 downloads
  • #544
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:18pm Dec 11, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting MickD
I just finished taow last night, it was the Giles version with commentary, I'm now going to meditate on just Sun Tzu's chapters without commentary for a bit and relate it to the market, I had some ideas the first time around, another reading will do me good.
Thanks again Fti and Leigh for your efforts, I think I'm getting it pretty clearly now (at least I hope )
cheers,
Mick.
Yeah, MickD, as I'm reading the AOW ... how it relates to trading (especially fti's method) is amazing! We are in for some exciting sessions, people!

I'm reading the PDF version that fti linked to in his post (the 3rd link).
  • #545
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:42pm Dec 11, 2007 7:42pm
Have been a bystander for a while on this thread, and have decided to have my first post.

I've been doing a lot of printing and reading..

Thank you fti for considering to do something like this.
Now back to catching up on more of the good stuff.

Curiosity of the human mind is a very powerful gift. I've been asking a lot of questions to myself, and picking up some of this stuff will certainly help me answer some. And for some others I guess it'll just be a matter of time and opportunity for me to grasp.

Take care and Thank you.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #546
  • Edited 8:48pm Dec 11, 2007 8:12pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting MickD
EDIT I've attached the Giles version, it has commentary on both the chapters and other translators commentary, the way it is written there ca be many different interpretations and it was good to see a few different views from different.
LOL, that version as I was reading through it was like how indicators had become to me ... too much distraction :

Thank you for that version, however ... for me, I am going to stick to the naked version and put my own interpretations/analysis on it, lol

I think I've just been too used to staring at naked charts at this point :
  • #547
  • Edited 6:22am Dec 12, 2007 3:07am | Edited 6:22am
Hi ALL,
At last,
I ve been withour electricity for 10 hrs, power lines went down.
Lucky they're up again. Wow.
But I am enjoying lots of line dropping, even the fan works funny.LOL

So like I promised Leighsww, here last installment.LOL
Sound like finance Co.
So after this will the 2 head leaders ,please fall in place.
and will all the rest of concubines, please fall in in a neat row behind them for drilling.
Dancing Classes Begins.
Dance masters please !

regards

PS : One word of advise.
If you refuse to dance with the lovely concubine leaders,
Then when I decide to send out my interpretation of "Art of War" .
You no get dance details and instructions, LOL
Hey Fti is that a threat?
YES. LOL
Actually No, if you don't do the dancing, instructions mean nothing.
Really. Believe me.
  • #548
  • Edited 3:52am Dec 12, 2007 3:32am | Edited 3:52am
A Lesson about Your Learning curve.
Courtesy of a certain t-genius
--------------------------------------------

A man found a cocoon of an emperor moth.
He took it home so that he could watch the moth come out of the cocoon.
On the day a small opening appeared, he sat and watched
the moth for several hours as the moth struggled to force
the body through that little hole.

Then it seemed to stop making any progress.
It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could and it could go no farther.
It just seemed to be stuck.
Then the man, in his kindness, decided to help the moth,
so he took a pair of scissors and snipped off the remaining bit of the cocoon.
The moth then emerged easily.

But it had a swollen body and small, shriveled wings.
The man continued to watch the moth because he expected that,
at any moment, the wings would enlarge and expand to be able to support the body,
which would contract in time.

Neither happened!
In fact, the little moth spent the rest of its life crawling around with a swollen body
and shriveled wings.
It never was able to fly.

What the man in his kindness and haste did not understand was that
the restricting cocoon and the struggle required for the moth to get through
the tiny opening was the way of forcing fluid from the body of the moth into its wings
so that it would be ready for flight once it achieved its freedom from the cocoon.
Freedom and flight would only come after the struggle.
By depriving the moth of a struggle, he deprived the moth of health.

Sometimes struggles are exactly what we need in our life.
If we were to go through our life without any obstacles,
we would be crippled.

We would not be as strong as what we could have been.
Give every opportunity a chance, leave no room for regrets.

------------END---------

Good Fortune to ALL.

regards

Fortune surely favours the thinking brave.
No Guts no Glory.

You are on your own now,
Stay Straight and Fly Right.

Nat King Cole - Pretend
Nat King Cole - Smile
Linda Ronstadt & Nelson Riddle - When You Wish Upon A Star
  • #549
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:40am Dec 12, 2007 3:40am
Thanks fti for this installment. It was by far easier to devour than the Wendy/Sandpiper report, which left me with a knotted stomach for all day and most of the night. Now we will wait for Leigh and Zoran to take the lead and I wish you a good holiday and enough electricity!

Greetings!
Gnat
  • #550
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:44am Dec 12, 2007 3:44am
Thank you, Very nice, this I'll pass on....



Quoting fti
A Lesson about Your Learning curve.
Courtesy of a certain t-genius
--------------------------------------------

A man found a cocoon of an emperor moth.
He took it home so that he could watch the moth come out of the cocoon.
On the day a small opening appeared, he sat and watched
the moth for several hours as the moth struggled to force
the body through that little hole.

Then it seemed to stop making any progress.
It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could and it could go no farther.
It just seemed to be stuck.
Then the man, in his kindness, decided to help the moth,
so he took a pair of scissors and snipped off the remaining bit of the cocoon.
The moth then emerged easily.

But it had a swollen body and small, shriveled wings.
The man continued to watch the moth because he expected that,
at any moment, the wings would enlarge and expand to be able to support the body,
which would contract in time.

Neither happened!
In fact, the little moth spent the rest of its life crawling around with a swollen body
and shriveled wings.
It never was able to fly.

What the man in his kindness and haste did not understand was that
the restricting cocoon and the struggle required for the moth to get through
the tiny opening was the way of forcing fluid from the body of the moth into its wings
so that it would be ready for flight once it achieved its freedom from the cocoon.
Freedom and flight would only come after the struggle.
By depriving the moth of a struggle, he deprived the moth of health.

Sometimes struggles are exactly what we need in our life.
If we were to go through our life without any obstacles,
we would be crippled.

We would not be as strong as what we could have been.
Give every opportunity a chance, leave no room for regrets.

------------END---------

Good Fortune to ALL.

regards

Fortune surely favours the thinking brave.
No Guts no Glory.
  • #551
  • Dec 12, 2007 4:03am Dec 12, 2007 4:03am
Thanks fti - have a great holiday - and make sure to make the occassional post when time permits next year.

All the best.
  • #552
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:12am Dec 12, 2007 5:12am
Thanks fti,

I was trading with a one direction bias long eurusd, on the 4hour chart. Rather than trading the long trend on any time frame I was establishing market sentiment based on long term fundamentals. This was probably my down fall. I had only been trading this way for 7 months and I think trading with the broader fundamentals comes with experience. Previously I had a year blowing demo accounts on tech analysis. I based my position size on my account size but also, where price was in relation to the median grid. The median grid was based on support and resistance from previous price action going back several months on the 4 hour chart. The grid had 4 envelopes and if price went either above or below the grid then the grid would shift by one envelope to accommodate the shift in the market. I would buy using small lot sizes on dips in the market which were sometimes based on short term fundamental reports or where priced dropped down to 0.0050 or whole numbers.

I think the technique was ok to some extent but I relied too much on fundamentals and my mentors advice at the time. I kept buying on dips with small multiple positions but the market kept dropping at which point I disregarded my MM and kept buying to recover those losses to no avail. So I was theoretically trading against the trend. Inexperienced in fundamentals and relying on my mentors advice with regards to the larger market sentiment was my downfall.

Interesting to see you trading on the smaller time frames. I was always told forget the lower time frames due to the noise element. I can see taking quick but consistent profits at these levels makes sense, although one runs up larger transaction costs. But I suppose those transaction costs are minimal when working for banks. Have you traded the same system for all those years?

You are right. I need to read through this thread thoroughly which I have yet to do. Will be good weekend reading.

Thanks again.

Quoting fti
Hi Porkpie,

I am sad to hear of your loss.
May I enquire your mindset.
Did you watch after your positions while you traded?
Where you over geared in terms of your MM?

I trade on 5min charts, some times to 15 min charts, if I go to 30 mins charts
that mean I am in drawn out battle already.
Its either I am deep in trying to recover a bad position or I am deep deep in profits
and applying the rod to the markets.

I have traded for close to 26 years and daily I have mostly made money for the banks.
I have demo for more than a month now and have not lost one single session.

I have a deep suspision that you wasn't dancing with the market
but was taking chances on pre-conceived analysis instead.
Try reading this whole thread again slowly. You may recognise your problem.

I got this funny feeling from reading your response
that you were running a mechanical system with rigid take profit levels.
But you might not have managed your risk
and you were probably trading from position emotion, and against the major trend.
Am I correct?
Otherwise you must have been over exposed in MM.

Your MO does not feel anything like mine, except the fact that you do not have stop loss,
but if you did not have stop loss and you do not manage the exposure,
then I would say that you had been reckless.
How much experience do you have in trading & Technical Analysis?

Give more details, I would like to analyse your blotter if suits.
and do read this thread carefully.

regards
  • #553
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:33am Dec 12, 2007 6:33am
Quoting fti
Hi Porkpie,

I trade on 5min charts, some times to 15 min charts, if I go to 30 mins charts
that mean I am in drawn out battle already.
Its either I am deep in trying to recover a bad position or I am deep deep in profits
and applying the rod to the markets.

I have traded for close to 26 years and daily I have mostly made money for the banks.
I have demo for more than a month now and have not lost one single session.

regards
Hi, fti. Thanks for your posts and stories especially the moth and cocorn story.

A lot of experienced traders on this forum trade based on 4H and daily charts. To my surprise, you trade on 5 minute chart.

I used to trade on 15M, some times 5M chart too. The best time period, IMO is London session(covers late Asian session and early US session) since it has largest movement normally.

But I encountered a lot of problems with this short-term trading, such as bad timing, price spikes,slipage, over-trading when market sidelines, confused with the market direction, emotion control, risk control, spread costs etc.

Dancing with 5M price movement to me is too difficult, since when the prices movement pace gets slower, I can't know before-hand whether it will take a rest and speed on or it will stop and make a U-turn.

To trade on 5M chart, I have to know the main direction of that day. But I can't predict without mistakes or estimate the next day's direction based on the previous day chart.

Any hint or skills do you have? when you dance with the market, is your feeling or six-sense about market price movement playing a role? Or maybe you can give us an example with a lively traded chart picture.

Thank you very much. Have a good time. i really appreciate your posts and stories.

David.
  • #554
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:43am Dec 12, 2007 6:43am
Hi fti

So when does your holiday begin? I was at a Christmas party last night and have a bit of a sore head today. I don't know how you managed to trade the next day after some heavy alcohol sessions. You mentioned it sharpened you up but the only thing I get is a sharp pain in my head. But my analysis does tend to improve whilst under the influence.

Just some questions before you leave. I understand you mainly trade on the 5 min. What do you do to determine the trend direction? Can you also summarise what influences your decision to enter and exit a trade? What do you look for? Do you ever have targets or just ride it for as long as you can?

Thanks again.
  • #555
  • Edited Dec 13, 2007 4:00am Dec 12, 2007 9:37am | Edited Dec 13, 2007 4:00am
Hi ALL,

@ David,
Actually Leighsww , can answer your question, and since I am still around.
I do the courtesy,

what is the most fresh fooprint? the line charts, right,
as you go up the time scale, the closest fresh footprints would be?
if you get into trouble with the 5 min foot prints, then you have to zoom out , right?
so what is the best outward zoom you can get?
If you still in trouble you keep zooming out to see bigger picture, right?
when you keep doing that you will ultimately come to day and week, right?
As you zoom out to reaccess your risk, your MM will keep snowballing on you.

So if we reverse this process what is the possible scenerio?
What is the impact of day analysis and then going in?
How far depends on "YOU" and your capitalisation.

(Don't think because you use 5 min charts you cannot trade day positions.
Only that the short charts are giving you freaher clues of what this woman is doing.)

But if you have to zoom out to daily charts , probally your initial positions are already sunk.
and the Money required to sustain is normally way beynd your capacity esp if you are leveraged.
So whats the safest tenure?
Least painful will be?

When you are in profits, you also want to zoom out to see if you can ride ,right?
So what is the strategy, MM, MO now ?

Lets say you bad, are zooming out and if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters"
So what must you do? If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right?
When this happens , what is the mindset to adopt? If you decide to fight instead,
you are trading against the trend, so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO?

Remember when you try to turn "on wind again" you work against the law of motion.
What does newtons law of motion states about the law?
Think thrust & distance.
If you decide to turn, WHERE do you look for that fresh timing?
and if you use $$$ to turn,how much ground must be lost before the turn is effective?

Understand the WW tables.
When risk snowballs , what is the best alternative.

Even if turning is the way to go to flow back into the trend, Whats the purpose?
Whats the MO supposed to be?
You try to use attack MO and the MM WILL kill your portfolio.

David , Don't think six sense, these things subjective.
Use clear objective thinking, and "feel her".

I hope I explained clearly. The only other way to show you is to hand hold you in trading.
Lets see , but now no time, sorry. Dance with Leighsww, you may learn there. She's now quite good dancer.
Try to understand Sun Zi Bi Fa ,the answer is there.

Quoting Zoran
55851Hi fti

So when does your holiday begin? I was at a Christmas party last night and have a bit of a sore head today. I don't know how you managed to trade the next day after some heavy alcohol sessions. You mentioned it sharpened you up but the only thing I get is a sharp pain in my head. But my analysis does tend to improve whilst under the influence.
@ Zoran,
For me , now waiting for queen bee to arrive with my rascals.
When they arrive , we party. Frankly , easier to read market than Queen Bee.
To learn "Drunken fist technique" gotta drink every day, not one day.
Don't go there. LOL


Quoting Zoran
55851
Just some questions before you leave. I understand you mainly trade on the 5 min. What do you do to determine the trend direction? Can you also summarise what influences your decision to enter and exit a trade? What do you look for? Do you ever have targets or just ride it for as long as you can?

Thanks again.
No Zoran, I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners.
I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her.

"Feel Pulse"
Those ladies with heavy tops or bottoms move bouncy & slowly
Long legged ladys are very firtitious and wild.
Those that have long shadows are normally tall and very volitile.
Those introverts that coil up normally spring surprises.
Those that spread themselves out normally have no substance..........better stop the dealers lingo!
Try study chart compound patterns.

I will guestimate targeted duck zones, but I am no god.
If I can feel or see flow is much more accurate
I am not so sharp as Robinhood also.

Have a nice dance with Leighsww.
Careful, she naked, so don't be funny.
She normally brings her whip ! LOL

regards

David Lanz - Return to the Heart
  • #556
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:07am Dec 12, 2007 10:07am
Fti, if I may pose a question to the most recent events, and the new liquidity bailout scheme by the Fed and the rest of central banks. I would love to hear your take on this if possible. I was half expecting something nasty (PA) after yesterday's rate cut, but this in my opinion is really a last cry for help, there is a credit bubble, it had started to burst at the seems already, but instead of trying to diflate it slowly, there is more money being pumped in. Now, the holes can only get bigger and as the more money is pumped back in I only see one possible scenario, a big boom.
Perhaps I'm biased and not assesing the situation correctly, your view would be greatly appreciated.
  • #557
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:29am Dec 12, 2007 10:29am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

@ Zoran,
For me , now waiting for queen bee to arrive with my rascals.
When they arrive , we party. Frankly , easier to read market than Queen Bee.

Have a nice dance with Leighsww.
Careful, she naked, so don't be funny.
She normally brings her whip ! LOL

regards
Have a wonderful break fti and live it up! All the best with your plans too. It sounds like you have some challenging but exciting times ahead.

Thank you for setting a path. I now have a lot of reading material and a journey to map out!
  • #558
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:52am Dec 12, 2007 10:52am
FTI

I would just like to wish you and your family a wonderful Christmas.

Thank you for the knowledge and insight that you have left here.

I have learnt a great deal from this thread and I am applying it to my trading mindset.

It is very kind of you to pass on this invaluable wisdom.

Many thanks

Frank
  • #559
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:40am Dec 12, 2007 11:40am
Quoting gene22
Fti, if I may pose a question to the most recent events, and the new liquidity bailout scheme by the Fed and the rest of central banks. I would love to hear your take on this if possible. I was half expecting something nasty (PA) after yesterday's rate cut, but this in my opinion is really a last cry for help, there is a credit bubble, it had started to burst at the seems already, but instead of trying to diflate it slowly, there is more money being pumped in. Now, the holes can only get bigger and as the more money is pumped back in I only see one possible scenario, a big boom.
Perhaps I'm biased and not assesing the situation correctly, your view would be greatly appreciated.
Hi Gene,

It is difficult for me to say if the Feds are handling this right.
My opinion, I shall based on the experience on the bubble
that the Japs had nearly 20 years ago.

The US bubble have not burst.
We are right in the middle of the situation now and they are trying to avoid a burst scenerio.
This is what's causing the infaltion, driving the energy sector.

I do not feel that the Feds are crying for help.
There arn't any possible short term bail outs solutions.

What the feds are doing is firstly damage control.
cos the situation is basically sub prime loans.
So they are easing rates to lessen the burden on the borrowers,
(remember these borrowers have little expandable resources)
so as to avoid the chance of a the borrowers bellying up on their loans
and becoming non performing.

They are also releasing more money into the market to tame the credit crunch
that may occur, as lenders clamp up, due to lower rates for holding on to the USD.
They look forward that the multiplyer effect may soften the tightness for cash.
Although this may have longer tenure inflationary impact as well as a depreciating USD purchasing power parity,
they plan to arrest the after effects to spread over a longer time span to avoid a immediate depressive state.

Their next move when the turbulance settles down
would probaly be the direction the Japs took in the 80s.
And that is to extend the loan tenure (over a generation or two if necessary) for the borrowers.
This will stretch the burden of debt for the borrower and allow inflation to defalte whats left of the bubble over time.

Over time, although value of the USD may erode and thats actually good for industries to repositioning their competitiveness corp strategies. It should avoid that the bubble should damage the economy as a whole.

Just my 2 pips

regards
  • #560
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:34pm Dec 12, 2007 12:34pm
FTI and friends,

This week I have made 6 profitable trades in a row (most ever in almost 2 years of cluttered charts and cluttered mind) using the basic principles that are in this thread. I am learning to dance by dancing, learning to wage war by fighting wisely, and learning to live by living. I am not quite to fully nakey yet, but I am only a couple of very thin trendlines and a fibonacci retracement away. A big thanks to FTI for rattling my cage, enjoy your well deserved vacation with your family!

Favorite AOW quote so far:

Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your

methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.

dance on!
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