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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,681
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:34am Dec 12, 2007 10:34am
Quoting Pyramid
If you want to have successful trades .
a. Login to ForexFactory.com
b. Enter to the thread : "Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
c. check Most of the Predicts
d. Open A Trade against the Predicts ( If forecasts are up then go down and vise versa )....
Just Kidding !
those forecasts helped me atleast..I am a lifelong member of this thread from now on jk
  • #54,682
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:42am Dec 12, 2007 10:42am
Quoting FXStudent
every one is predicting 231 /232 etc.. which makes me kinda nervous.. but so far so good. worst case scenario it will still be a winner
It wasn't a prediction it was based on 50% fib line and GJ being very bullish at the moment.

What I see is 55 EMA @ 230.75 and 50% fib @ 231.35 both not too far from were price is trading currently. . .Still may become a reality before the end of the session. . .

Just my thoughts!
  • #54,683
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:47am Dec 12, 2007 10:47am
Actually there is a lot of truth what you say...

R

Quoting Pyramid
If you want to have successful trades .
a. Login to ForexFactory.com
b. Enter to the thread : "Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
c. check Most of the Predicts
d. Open A Trade against the Predicts ( If forecasts are up then go down and vise versa )....
Just Kidding !
  • #54,684
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:48am Dec 12, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Pyramid
If you want to have successful trades .
a. Login to ForexFactory.com
b. Enter to the thread : "Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
c. check Most of the Predicts
d. Open A Trade against the Predicts ( If forecasts are up then go down and vise versa )....
Just Kidding !

And isn't it nice that there is never any dissagreement on which direction these pairs will take next.

Nice thread and Method you all! Been watching from a distance. Just need time to study this more. Thanks all,

ut2DaMax
  • #54,685
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:48am Dec 12, 2007 10:48am
Quoting quecee5
It wasn't a prediction it was based on 50% fib line and GJ being very bullish at the moment.

What I see is 55 EMA @ 230.75 and 50% fib @ 231.35 both not too far from were price is trading currently. . .Still may become a reality before the end of the session. . .

Just my thoughts!
Well, I woke up to see madness.. lol Check out Gene's thread if you want the reason as to why we got this surge upwards.

Right now, I would looke for 231 to be towards the top. If we would get a reversal at that point, I would probably sell into this pair again but I have to look further into it. With the fact that it has morem oney to play around with now, this could stay in a larger range instead of dropping that quickly.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,686
  • Edited 11:15am Dec 12, 2007 10:58am | Edited 11:15am
Quoting mike w
Well, I woke up to see madness.. lol Check out Gene's thread if you want the reason as to why we got this surge upwards.

Right now, I would looke for 231 to be towards the top. If we would get a reversal at that point, I would probably sell into this pair again but I have to look further into it. With the fact that it has morem oney to play around with now, this could stay in a larger range instead of dropping that quickly.
According to what I'm looking at, the top of this current upmove resistance range is 230.68/70 so it still has some room to move. The next resistance level is 231.57 which is the 50% fib, last resistance comes in @ 233.34 which is the 61.8% fib (i think it has a good chance of seeing this. . )

My 2cents. . .
  • #54,687
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:02am Dec 12, 2007 11:02am
GJ is on drugs or steroids
  • #54,688
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:03am Dec 12, 2007 11:03am
Common Sense----the Higher the Dow goes before the end of the year, the more bonuses for the hedge funds. With 1)liquidity now injected into the market and 2) bonus season... you should get strong equities through the end of the year. Basically what I said yesterday before traders jumped the gun and sold off Dow 300 points. There is also a psycholgical factor of Christmas. The closer we get to Christmas, the more likley the Dow will go up or at least stay steady....traders don't like to go into a Holiday on down note. This is a pattern seen over many years, often called the Santa Claus Rally.
  • #54,689
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:09am Dec 12, 2007 11:09am
Quoting peterM
Predictions are more often wrong than right. Often best just to trade setups
The 231.30 and 233.65 areas are not predictions. They are Fib levels which GBP/JPY and other pairs respect on a regular basis. GBP/JPY especially respects the 50 Fib levels. Fibs have been analyzed by many as to why they work on such a high percentage level. Some have speculated that they are self-fulfilling levels which people follow because they believe everyone else is following them, which creates support/resistance at those precise levels. Who knows and who really cares? If it works, that's all that really matters. Price projections (not predictions) are a part of trading. How else would a trader know where to get out of a trade? Some are calling for 232 and 233 just because those are round numbers. I don't understand that. Price, which is obviously a reflection of the actions of people (traders), needs a good reason to stop and reverse at whatever points it decides to do that. Fib levels and certain EMAs give price (people) good reasons for stopping and reversing at those points. Understanding the psychology of trading, and the fact that people are ultimately the true movers of price, will help any trader better understand price movement. News and technical indicators do not move or dictate price movement. Remember, people are the ones pushing the buy and sell buttons.

M2B
  • #54,690
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:10am Dec 12, 2007 11:10am
Quoting quecee5
According to what I'm looking at, the top of this current upmove resistance range is 230.68/70 so it still have some room to move. The resistance is 231.57 which is the 50% fib, last resistance comes in @ 233.34 which is the 61.8% fib (i think it has a good chance of seeing this. . )

My 2cents. . .
I would agree, but I am not too sure of it hitting the last resistance at the 61.8 fib. Gbp/Jpy loves the 50% to reverse at, which is why I would open a sell order there if we would see some type of a reversal pattern.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,691
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:13am Dec 12, 2007 11:13am
Quoting mike w
Well, I woke up to see madness.. lol Check out Gene's thread if you want the reason as to why we got this surge upwards.

Right now, I would looke for 231 to be towards the top. If we would get a reversal at that point, I would probably sell into this pair again but I have to look further into it. With the fact that it has morem oney to play around with now, this could stay in a larger range instead of dropping that quickly.
MIke,
How right you are...the Fed is now pumping money in big time...with more to come. Simple math says that the carry trade is back on. The borrowing by banks will be at the discount window---4.75%. If the Fed takes 'further action' before end of January and cuts the discount rate another 25-50 points to make this new money even more attractive, it will be time to get long and hold making pips and intrest for the long journey north. We will see if we get an discount cut over the next few weeks.
  • #54,692
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:13am Dec 12, 2007 11:13am
Quoting my2buoys
The 231.30 and 233.65 areas are not predictions. They are Fib levels which GBP/JPY and other pairs respect on a regular basis. GBP/JPY especially respects the 50 Fib levels. Fibs have been analyzed by many as to why they work on such a high percentage level. Some have speculated that they are self-fulfilling levels which people follow because they believe everyone else is following them, which creates support/resistance at those precise levels. Who knows and who really cares? If it works, that's all that really matters. Price projections (not predictions) are a part of trading. How else would a trader know where to get out of a trade? Some are calling for 232 and 233 just because those are round numbers. I don't understand that. Price, which is obviously a reflection of the actions of people (traders), needs a good reason to stop and reverse at whatever points it decides to do that. Fib levels and certain EMAs give price (people) good reasons for stopping and reversing at those points. Understanding the psychology of trading, and the fact that people are ultimately the true movers of price, will help any trader better understand price movement. News and technical indicators do not move or dictate price movement. Remember, people are the ones pushing the buy and sell buttons.

M2B
Excellent post M2B. As for round numbers in trading; people are naturally attracted to round numbers. It sounds wierd but it is true. With the fact that people like the round numbers to trade off of, this is why we sometimes see a bounce at such levels. Most people either buy/sell or close out of their positions at them.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,693
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:16am Dec 12, 2007 11:16am
Quoting FX-Petra
Common Sense----the Higher the Dow goes before the end of the year, the more bonuses for the hedge funds. With 1)liquidity now injected into the market and 2) bonus season... you should get strong equities through the end of the year. Basically what I said yesterday before traders jumped the gun and sold off Dow 300 points. There is also a psycholgical factor of Christmas. The closer we get to Christmas, the more likley the Dow will go up or at least stay steady....traders don't like to go into a Holiday on down note. This is a pattern seen over many years, often called the Santa Claus Rally.
Makes sense. I'm still trying to get my head around what the effects of this co-ordinated restructuring will actually be upon the markets, if any. I'm certain it's no coincidence that they've pulled this rabbit out of the hat at this particular time if only to divert attention from the fact that the US, Jap, and UK economies are in real trouble.

The Dow hasn't responded as much as I might have thought. A retracement should have been expected after the market closed on such a low yesterday. But this news, which I thought should have had a positive effect on the Dow, seems to have failed to instigate a significant rally, but indirectly seems to have weakened the Yen/boosted the carry.
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  • #54,694
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:17am Dec 12, 2007 11:17am
230 was a big round number.......
  • #54,695
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:17am Dec 12, 2007 11:17am
Quoting mike w
Well, I woke up to see madness.. lol Check out Gene's thread if you want the reason as to why we got this surge upwards.

Right now, I would looke for 231 to be towards the top. If we would get a reversal at that point, I would probably sell into this pair again but I have to look further into it. With the fact that it has morem oney to play around with now, this could stay in a larger range instead of dropping that quickly.
Hey, Mike,

This is the second time you've mentioned Gene's thread. I can't find it. Can you post the link to his thread? He's a great thinker and I'd like to check it out. Thanks in advance.

M2B
  • #54,696
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:21am Dec 12, 2007 11:21am
Quoting my2buoys
Hey, Mike,

This is the second time you've mentioned Gene's thread. I can't find it. Can you post the link to his thread? He's a great thinker and I'd like to check it out. Thanks in advance.

M2B
Sure thing. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57822
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,697
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:23am Dec 12, 2007 11:23am
Quoting uncleforex
230 was a big round number.......
And see how we are sticking? Stops and limits probably got triggered there and now we made a little bounce. We'll probably stay here another hour or 2 before price goes I don't know where. probably 300.00 next... lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,698
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:24am Dec 12, 2007 11:24am
Quoting mike w
I would agree, but I am not too sure of it hitting the last resistance at the 61.8 fib. Gbp/Jpy loves the 50% to reverse at, which is why I would open a sell order there if we would see some type of a reversal pattern.
  • #54,699
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:28am Dec 12, 2007 11:28am
Quoting birdt
Makes sense. I'm still trying to get my head around what the effects of this co-ordinated restructuring will actually be upon the markets, if any. I'm certain it's no coincidence that they've pulled this rabbit out of the hat at this particular time if only to divert attention from the fact that the US, Jap, and UK economies are in real trouble.

The Dow hasn't responded as much as I might have thought. A retracement should have been expected after the market closed on such a low yesterday. But this news, which I thought should have had a positive effect on the Dow, seems to have failed to instigate a significant rally, but indirectly seems to have weakened the Yen/boosted the carry.
birdt,
Please read the news release carefully. At the end of the statement it says the Fed is considering making this new auction "permanant". This will have long term implications---especially if the cut the discount rate to equal the funds rate. This would ease liquidty concerns, freeing up cash to be put back into the carry trades to make big time + intrest vs. what the discount rate would be. IMHO, the key will be to cut the discount rate to = the funds rate. If so, we will head back for all time highs. It will take time, but it will happen.
  • #54,700
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:31am Dec 12, 2007 11:31am
Quoting mike w
And see how we are sticking? Stops and limits probably got triggered there and now we made a little bounce. We'll probably stay here another hour or 2 before price goes I don't know where. probably 300.00 next... lol
Mike right below where it is trading currently there is resistance turned support right @ 229.63 which is has bounced off of 3 times now and stuck around this area. . . Price action leads me to believe that before this session is over we will hit the top of the resitance level GJ is in, top @ 230.69 or it will hit the 50% fib @ 231.57, then reverse/retrace whatever. . .lol!

If it bounces off the 229.63 again that will validate what I'm seeing, however if it make it through it will see 229 area and I believe that will be the retrace for the next leg up @ 50% fib. . .

Just my thoughts. . .
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