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Market Correction after New Year?

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 10, 2007 9:10pm Dec 10, 2007 9:10pm
Hi, everyone! Hope you are all enjoying the current buying moves in the yen crosses!

Do you think there will be a deep market correction with major carry unwind soon after the first of 2008?

There was one last year. Does this hold true for every year?
  • #2
  • Dec 12, 2007 2:43am Dec 12, 2007 2:43am
I've read in a couple of places that this mught happen but I plan to get out of the market for a week either side of the new year. Low liquidity could mean wild price swings which seems too much like gambling to me.

IMHO
  • #3
  • Dec 12, 2007 5:48am Dec 12, 2007 5:48am
Quoting Marrethiel
I've read in a couple of places that this mught happen but I plan to get out of the market for a week either side of the new year. Low liquidity could mean wild price swings which seems too much like gambling to me.

IMHO
Yeah, me too. I really hope though that we do get a good unwind so I can get back in at a low price as soon as it's over.
  • #4
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:16am Dec 12, 2007 7:16am
I certainly would not rule it out.. but I really don't know.
  • #5
  • Dec 12, 2007 7:29am Dec 12, 2007 7:29am
Most carry trades have already been unwound. A move lower would count as a down trend continuation rather than a "correction".

Or didn't you notice the 1000 pip fall in USD/JPY and 2000 pip fall in GBP/JPY?
  • #6
  • Dec 12, 2007 8:46am Dec 12, 2007 8:46am
Well ahh..it all depends on your frame of reference ...
If we for example get higher highs in AUD/USD (Vs Nov 07 High) early next year as I expect...then I would say it would count as an uptrend continuation in the long term trend that has been in effect since 2001.



Quoting notouch
Most carry trades have already been unwound. A move lower would count as a down trend continuation rather than a "correction".

Or didn't you notice the 1000 pip fall in USD/JPY and 2000 pip fall in GBP/JPY?
  • #7
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:57am Dec 12, 2007 10:57am
The OP asked about yen crosses not AUD/USD. AUD/JPY is in a range but still 800 pips below its highs of earlier in the year. The Yen carry trade has already been unwound. The weak dollar is a different story.
  • #8
  • Dec 17, 2007 5:04pm Dec 17, 2007 5:04pm
In a thin-liquidity-atmosphere owing to holidays this might prove to be a ''collection''(i.e. where market may collect the money from novice traders) instead of a correction. I wont hold any position during the holidays.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Dec 17, 2007 6:38pm Dec 17, 2007 6:38pm
Wall street will surely pump you up on the "January Effect"

You never know...

I see markets slowing down and likely going down, people want cash...I would say.
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