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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,081
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:22pm Dec 10, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting vinesh2
Q, whats your analysis for tomorrow after the rate cut? We all know that the USD is going to take a pounding if the rate cute is actually going to happen. This may help the equities and they might rally upwards after the news. In the past the equity market have gone higher during rate cut but after the cut the DOW just tanks as if there is no end. DO you see this happening and what is your price target for GJ.
I think at least a 25bps rate cut will happen. But there is still some (Fed fund futures) who believe that a more agresseive stance could be taken with a 50bps cut in an attempt to prevent a recession. Based on last weeks better than expected ADP and NFP data 50bps is less likely.

I do think we'll see a rally after the announcement either way but I think it will be very short lived. Right now I'm looking to short @ 229.30, 230.30's, 231.60's (if it makes it up there). My reasoning is UJ could move up 112/112.50 and GU will probably try to retest 2.0520/530's and even higher (to close gap from BOE announcement). Also, let us not forget UK employment data to be released later this week which is anticipated to be bad (which could get priced-in before announcement) or add fuel to the downside for GU. . . I'm even prepared to short up to 233 if it gets there which I doubt because overall both UJ and GU larger trend is to the downside. . .

Target for me will be open to the downside but could easily see testing S3 support @ 223.20's if we see a run above 229.50/70's but below 230.50's. . .
  • #54,082
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:36pm Dec 10, 2007 1:36pm
NEW UPDATE GJ H4

http://i76.photobucket.com/albums/j1...jh411dec07.jpg

GOOD LUCK
DEBTFREEDOM
  • #54,083
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:54pm Dec 10, 2007 1:54pm
Quoting quecee5
Target for me will be open to the downside but could easily see testing S3 support @ 223.20's if we see a run above 229.50/70's but below 230.50's. . .
quecee,

could you explain your reasoning behind this statement. why will the bearish target be affected if geppy goes above that level (230.50)?
  • #54,084
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:08pm Dec 10, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
quecee,

could you explain your reasoning behind this statement. why will the bearish target be affected if geppy goes above that level (230.50)?
Sure, if a break above 229.30's/70's (significant resistance) is broken (due to triggered stops) but does not hold above and does not reach 230's and bad UK employment data come Wed, GJ could fall back down toward 226 then 223's before seeing significant support.

However, a break above 230's could see accelerated buying up to 231.xx and 233's before seeing massive resistance and a reversal (maybe). . .

Hope this helps. . .
  • #54,085
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:13pm Dec 10, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting quecee5
Sure, if a break above 229.30's/70's (significant resistance) is broken (due to triggered stops) but does not hold above and does not reach 230's and bad UK employment data come Wed, GJ could fall back down toward 226 then 223's before seeing significant support.

However, a break above 230's could see accelerated buying up to 231.xx and 233's before seeing massive resistance and a reversal (maybe). . .

Hope this helps. . .
awesome. thanks a lot
  • #54,086
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:17pm Dec 10, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting quecee5
Craziest thing, now my 200 ema on 4hr is showing 229.05 but 200 sma still showing 229.38, oh well go figure -

Anyway, been studying intraday charts to try to figure out GJ's next move as if that's possible. . . Well should I say try to predict GJ next move based on recent moves and what I'm seeing in the charts. . .

Couple things pop out at me, LTF's look to be rolling over or OB, 4hr mom mixed however RSI indicator looks to have more up for today and the daily mom's seem to confirm that with mom 10 pointing up. I was also looking for a pullback back to 227.60/80 area from the last move up but since it didn't happen I assume we'll see another move up sometime during this session (maybe) to my target of 229.30's. . .

From a UJ, GU standpoint, looks like UJ is holding firm above 111.50/60's and could look to retest 111.70/80's again then 112/112.50 soon. GU tested 2.0475 earlier and got rejected so it may look to retest and if broken could touch 2.0500/530's.

Therefore, since GJ is in a short-term uptrend (imo) and based on the 4hr chart we could see a run up to 229.20/30's (200 ema and triggered stops) before the NY session is over before a retracement back to 227.50/60's or so. Typically but not always, NY retest the London/NY high and a bit higher before the NY session is over. . .

No position right now but I'll look to get short on a run to 229.20/30 to ride it down to 227.xx area for now. . .

short term....227.5 or so as follows

[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Compaq_Owner/My%20Documents/pitchfork15%20min1.gif[/IMG]
confluence forming on upper fork means possible resistance or median reached for now in the zone of that upper fork...if we break that upper fork we may still be long.... but looks like raniging and forming new resistance there... well see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pitchfork15 min1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #54,087
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:18pm Dec 10, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting quecee5
Craziest thing, now my 200 ema on 4hr is showing 229.05 but 200 sma still showing 229.38, oh well go figure -

Anyway, been studying intraday charts to try to figure out GJ's next move as if that's possible. . . Well should I say try to predict GJ next move based on recent moves and what I'm seeing in the charts. . .

Couple things pop out at me, LTF's look to be rolling over or OB, 4hr mom mixed however RSI indicator looks to have more up for today and the daily mom's seem to confirm that with mom 10 pointing up. I was also looking for a pullback back to 227.60/80 area from the last move up but since it didn't happen I assume we'll see another move up sometime during this session (maybe) to my target of 229.30's. . .

From a UJ, GU standpoint, looks like UJ is holding firm above 111.50/60's and could look to retest 111.70/80's again then 112/112.50 soon. GU tested 2.0475 earlier and got rejected so it may look to retest and if broken could touch 2.0500/530's.

Therefore, since GJ is in a short-term uptrend (imo) and based on the 4hr chart we could see a run up to 229.20/30's (200 ema and triggered stops) before the NY session is over before a retracement back to 227.50/60's or so. Typically but not always, NY retest the London/NY high and a bit higher before the NY session is over. . .

No position right now but I'll look to get short on a run to 229.20/30 to ride it down to 227.xx area for now. . .
Strange 4hr 200ema . . . but it's closer to mine now. Strange day too, even for NY. Very tight ranging. Like nobody wants to "go out on a limb" either direction. But the day's not over, and I agree with your high / low areas. Let's see how things flow . . .

  • #54,088
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:19pm Dec 10, 2007 2:19pm
The more every1 calls 4 those shorts, the more contrarian my views get...Here r my 2cents worth with 38.2fib as primary & 50fib as secondary targets. Could be very wrong but I will go with the charts...either that or all longs will be stopped out @ 228 with +4% on my monthly balance & out 4 the week.

Also attaching a useful indicator found in the news-section
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklygj.gif Size: 15 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EconomistCoverPictureReverseIndicator3Dec07.pdf   68 KB | 569 downloads
  • #54,089
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:36pm Dec 10, 2007 2:36pm
Quoting forexnovice
The more every1 calls 4 those shorts, the more contrarian my views get...Here r my 2cents worth with 38.2fib as primary & 50fib as secondary targets. Could be very wrong but I will go with the charts...either that or all longs will be stopped out @ 228 with +4% on my monthly balance & out 4 the week.

Also attaching a useful indicator found in the news-section
best indicator i ever saw! based on magazine covers accrate from 1800s wow thats freaky! love it! but which magazines to use? lol overall i think u may be right about overall direction historically we going up on monthly chart but..... we talking near term (relatively) here
  • #54,090
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:41pm Dec 10, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting dagoods
best indicator i ever saw! based on magazine covers accrate from 1800s wow thats freaky! love it! but which magazines to use? lol overall i think u may be right about overall direction historically we going up on monthly chart but..... we talking near term (relatively) here
Thanx Dagoods.. Good Night All.. See u tomorrow Morning. Till then
  • #54,091
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:43pm Dec 10, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting forexnovice
The more every1 calls 4 those shorts, the more contrarian my views get...Here r my 2cents worth with 38.2fib as primary & 50fib as secondary targets. Could be very wrong but I will go with the charts...either that or all longs will be stopped out @ 228 with +4% on my monthly balance & out 4 the week.

Also attaching a useful indicator found in the news-section
here is weekly pitchfork for you if u care... maybe u r right on longer term....

[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Compaq_Owner/My%20Documents/pitchforkweekly%20pf.gif[/IMG]
  • #54,092
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:45pm Dec 10, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting dagoods
here is weekly pitchfork for you if u care... maybe u r right on longer term....

[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Compaq_Owner/My%20Documents/pitchforkweekly%20pf.gif[/IMG]
here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pitchforkweekly pf.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #54,093
  • Dec 10, 2007 3:21pm Dec 10, 2007 3:21pm
Quoting forexnovice
The more every1 calls 4 those shorts, the more contrarian my views get...Here r my 2cents worth with 38.2fib as primary & 50fib as secondary targets. Could be very wrong but I will go with the charts...either that or all longs will be stopped out @ 228 with +4% on my monthly balance & out 4 the week.

Also attaching a useful indicator found in the news-section
the only negative about weekly's is that this could drop 200 pips and still be bullish according to your chart
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,094
  • Dec 10, 2007 3:40pm Dec 10, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting fer
out with 40 pips from the break out. will wait for a close above 227.90 to go long again or wait for a short setup.

tp hit at 228.70 for another 80 pips. i am still bullish biased. will see how things develop in asian session.
  • #54,095
  • Dec 10, 2007 4:54pm Dec 10, 2007 4:54pm
looking at the 1 hr charts g/j i smell a huge drop tomorow. Let see.
  • #54,096
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:02pm Dec 10, 2007 5:02pm
Does anyone have a Karmo patience pill? I am short and will remain so till some one says other wise lol. Looking at the Daily looks like geppy might hit the 50 FIB level and then head on down but who knows DOW can ruin everything.
  • #54,097
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:18pm Dec 10, 2007 5:18pm
Was your short solely based on the resistance? The qqes haven't crossed down yet (at the time of your posting) and 4hr mom was bullish... price above 1hr gann and emas/smas.

Quoting karmostaji
I've taken a small short @ 228.66 since we've got a bit of resistance here, let's see what happens.. I'd be happy to see a bar form below 1H gann hilo.. it would bring some bears back to life.
  • #54,098
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:19pm Dec 10, 2007 5:19pm
The last interest rate decision by the US was on October 31st which came as expected, a .25 drop which resulted in 300-400 pip rise in G/J

I'm expecting the same thing to happen here...

but what is interesting is starting from the next day onward G/J fell from 241-221 and if you look at where we are at... looks like everything is gonna work well

G/J is at 228.50+300-400pips = 231.50-232.50

so that is what I'll be targeting, but no more than that because I'll be expecting another fall from that level
  • #54,099
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:35pm Dec 10, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting MoForce
The last interest rate decision by the US was on October 31st which came as expected, a .25 drop which resulted in 300-400 pip rise in G/J

I'm expecting the same thing to happen here...

but what is interesting is starting from the next day onward G/J fell from 241-221 and if you look at where we are at... looks like everything is gonna work well

G/J is at 228.50+300-400pips = 231.50-232.50

so that is what I'll be targeting, but no more than that because I'll be expecting another fall from that level
My thought exactly, if you look at the daily chart and indicators, it sure looks like it has room to move up to at least 231.30-233.50, 50% fib and 61.8% fib. 100 ema and 200 ema on daily is @ 233.13 and 233.51 which is right below 61.8% fib. . . 61.8% fib @ 233.68 on my chart. . .
  • #54,100
  • Dec 10, 2007 5:45pm Dec 10, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting vinesh2
Does anyone have a Karmo patience pill? I am short and will remain so till some one says other wise lol. Looking at the Daily looks like geppy might hit the 50 FIB level and then head on down but who knows DOW can ruin everything.
Here you go!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Patience_pills.jpg Size: 72 KB
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