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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,061
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:46am Dec 10, 2007 9:46am
Quoting karmostaji
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.


Also, I expect to see profit taking toward the end of the week once all the announcements are out. . .
  • #54,062
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:50am Dec 10, 2007 9:50am
Dailyfx see the dow dives to 13000 and after a big up :

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...063451637.html
  • #54,063
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:57am Dec 10, 2007 9:57am
Quoting PipChick
One thing we have to remember is the wkly head and shoulders with the top of it setting at your 229.20 resistance. If that breaks, (and it may with the US rate decision) it would be violating the wkly h/s which usually will send the pair a few hundred pips on a 4 hr h/s so the wkly h/s could see several hundred pips on the long side should the 229.20 area be violated. Looks like we will have may good trading opportunities this week.
  • #54,064
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:59am Dec 10, 2007 9:59am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Just a word or two of caution. Personally I'll be looking for a retrace. But there's still some upward potential, so don't over leverage your shorts. After gaining buyers we could see R2 resistance at 228.71, the 38.2% fib at 228.92, or the 4hr 200ema at 228.94.

US pending home sales news is coming up soon. There could be pre-news spikes in either direction. If the stock market loves the results, the upper resistance appears to be R3 at 230.11, 4hr 200sma at 230.17, and the 50% fib at 231.26.
PC - I have 4hr 200 ema @ 229.60's. . .
  • #54,065
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:05am Dec 10, 2007 10:05am
Quoting quecee5
PC - I have 4hr 200 ema @ 229.60's. . .
Hmm . . . mine reads 228.95 now, and the 200sma is 230.17 . . .

I've noticed more discrepancies between brokers on Monday than any other day of the week.
  • #54,066
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:06am Dec 10, 2007 10:06am
Quoting quecee5
PC - I have 4hr 200 ema @ 229.60's. . .
My 4 hr 200 ema is 229.03 and the top of the rt shoulder on the weekly is 229.33 so a break above that then a pullback for a buy is what I would be looking at. Gotta run. Have a nice day everyone.
  • #54,067
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:08am Dec 10, 2007 10:08am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Hmm . . . mine reads 228.95 now, and the 200sma is 230.17 . . .

I've noticed more discrepancies between brokers on Monday than any other day of the week.
wow my 4hr 200ema is at 229.15
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,068
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:12am Dec 10, 2007 10:12am
Quoting moneymagnet
wow my 4hr 200ema is at 229.15
Thanks MM. Lots of variety . . . unfortunately for us . . .
  • #54,069
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:14am Dec 10, 2007 10:14am
Quoting moneymagnet
wow my 4hr 200ema is at 229.15
And mine is @ 229.01
  • #54,070
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:15am Dec 10, 2007 10:15am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Hmm . . . mine reads 228.95 now, and the 200sma is 230.17 . . .

I've noticed more discrepancies between brokers on Monday than any other day of the week.
Yeah, must be in the broker. I tried taking it off and placing it back on and still have the same thing for 200 EMA (229.63) and for 200 sma I get 229.28.
  • #54,071
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:23am Dec 10, 2007 10:23am
Quoting quecee5
ROTFLMAO!
I like looking at GJ from both long and short perspective. . . I tend to look for opportunities for intraday trading and good set-ups for long-term short/long opportunities.

As stated yesterday, I was neutral short-term as GJ looked to have room to move up to at least 231.xx. . . However, I still think we'll see it stall up at those levels but could see a last minute XMAS push even up to 233 before a big reversal below the neckline. Thats what I'm seeing in the charts from a short and long term view.

your typical end of year dow rally affecting this pair? hmmmmmmmmm
  • #54,072
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:29am Dec 10, 2007 10:29am
The NY session daily pivot is 227.77, and it's R1 is 229.43. My hunch is a combination of the 38.2 fib, 4hr 200ema, and the NY R1 will keep price below 229.5 today. Low limit is probably near the pivot.
  • #54,073
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:34am Dec 10, 2007 10:34am
Quoting crashout
Dailyfx see the dow dives to 13000 and after a big up :

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...063451637.html
i find that scenario hard to beleive at this moment think they know something we dont? wont dive methinks till next yearright now we are approaching 14000, we are well above 13500 psychological resistance..... i wouldnt bet the farm on that... 2008 may be a different story if more bad subprime news lack of consumer confidence lack of consumer spending as homeowners lose there "home as atm machines" but for now its strong dow... IMO
  • #54,074
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:40am Dec 10, 2007 10:40am
Quoting karmostaji
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.

Hi Bro,
I think because the data is showing less possibility for a recession , and US Reports (even I think the reports does not seems to be true) shows that economy even slowly has shown some light of growth and no more recession ....

By the way a lot of people think that there is no need for a Rate cut by fed even scheduled 0.25% by the way I think you are right , a lot of people are looking for a new rate cut and it means if no rate cut , market will react weird ....
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #54,075
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:44am Dec 10, 2007 10:44am
i am currently not trading the geppy right now but did short the eur (nice and safe with out the mood swings) but it looks like a doji is forming on the 4hr. just an FYI
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,076
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:47am Dec 10, 2007 10:47am
I've taken a small short @ 228.66 since we've got a bit of resistance here, let's see what happens.. I'd be happy to see a bar form below 1H gann hilo.. it would bring some bears back to life.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #54,077
  • Edited 11:28am Dec 10, 2007 10:48am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting quecee5
ROTFLMAO!
I like looking at GJ from both long and short perspective. . . I tend to look for opportunities for intraday trading and good set-ups for long-term short/long opportunities.

As stated yesterday, I was neutral short-term as GJ looked to have room to move up to at least 231.xx. . . However, I still think we'll see it stall up at those levels but could see a last minute XMAS push even up to 233 before a big reversal below the neckline. Thats what I'm seeing in the charts from a short and long term view.
careful bulls.....

pitchfork 1 aatched:

fyi all intersted... as per pf analysis we may see the upper lines but 80% likely to return to median (middle) line again... look for opportunities to capitalize on that retrace down IMO maybe not till later or tommorow... or even wednesday but it will most likely (80%) then we may go up again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,078
  • Dec 10, 2007 11:41am Dec 10, 2007 11:41am
Quoting karmostaji
I've taken a small short @ 228.66 since we've got a bit of resistance here, let's see what happens.. I'd be happy to see a bar form below 1H gann hilo.. it would bring some bears back to life.
I'm doing the same, but don't really expect much. A 50% retrace from the run up would make me happy. The Dow seems to be holding steady at around 100 points up, but the QQE's are near OB and the lower TF ones are turning bearish. We'll probably do some ranging, then eventually test today's high again. IMO
  • #54,079
  • Edited 1:34pm Dec 10, 2007 12:55pm | Edited 1:34pm
Craziest thing, now my 200 ema on 4hr is showing 229.05 but 200 sma still showing 229.38, oh well go figure -

Anyway, been studying intraday charts to try to figure out GJ's next move as if that's possible. . . Well should I say try to predict GJ next move based on recent moves and what I'm seeing in the charts. . .

Couple things pop out at me, LTF's look to be rolling over or OB, 4hr mom mixed however RSI indicator looks to have more up for today and the daily mom's seem to confirm that with mom 10 pointing up. I was also looking for a pullback back to 227.60/80 area from the last move up but since it didn't happen I assume we'll see another move up sometime during this session (maybe) to my target of 229.30's. . .

From a UJ, GU standpoint, looks like UJ is holding firm above 111.50/60's and could look to retest 111.70/80's again then 112/112.50 soon. GU tested 2.0475 earlier and got rejected so it may look to retest and if broken could touch 2.0500/530's.

Therefore, since GJ is in a short-term uptrend (imo) and based on the 4hr chart we could see a run up to 229.20/30's (200 ema and triggered stops) before the NY session is over before a retracement back to 227.50/60's or so. Typically but not always, NY retest the London/NY high and a bit higher before the NY session is over. . .

No position right now but I'll look to get short on a run to 229.20/30 to ride it down to 227.xx area for now. . .
  • #54,080
  • Dec 10, 2007 1:04pm Dec 10, 2007 1:04pm
Q, whats your analysis for tomorrow after the rate cut? We all know that the USD is going to take a pounding if the rate cute is actually going to happen. This may help the equities and they might rally upwards after the news. In the past the equity market have gone higher during rate cut but after the cut the DOW just tanks as if there is no end. DO you see this happening and what is your price target for GJ.
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