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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,041
  • Dec 10, 2007 8:47am Dec 10, 2007 8:47am
Quoting dagoods
how does one export charts from mt4? forgive my ignorance but i just got mtf4 yesterday and am trying to learn
I don't use mt4 but I think if you click on the link in auslanco's sig, you might find your answer there. I look at real time charts on forex.com and oanda.
  • #54,042
  • Dec 10, 2007 8:54am Dec 10, 2007 8:54am
Quoting PipChick
I am with you PC. I am looking for a retrace to about 227.60 or better for a possible buy because it is in an uptrend on the 1 hr currently and the gbp is still pretty strong.
edit: cant type today!
Your target looks good to me. Longer term I think we'll see 226 later in the week, but more upward movement before that today and tomorrow.
  • #54,043
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:02am Dec 10, 2007 9:02am
7:00pm USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifPending Home Sales m/m
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 0.6%
  • #54,044
  • Edited 9:30am Dec 10, 2007 9:08am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting forexnovice
Imho it is 2 early 2 call the top in GJ atleast. On the 4hr charts it has managed 2 breach significant resistance in the form of the violet line extending frm 238.84 & the green line extending frm 241.36. Some retracement might be due though.
Good call on the GJ up move, happening just like you stated -
Also, I agree with your statement above, based on the daily chart GJ has room to move to 230.30/60 and even the 50% fib @ 231.30's as stated in my post yesterday with charts.

Another thing I'm keeping in my hip pocket is the Monthly 5 SMA which is currently @ 233.xx (maybe good long-term shorting opportunities)

Good trading this week. . .
  • #54,045
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:13am Dec 10, 2007 9:13am
I have to leave in about an hour but if I were to trade today I think that to buy NOW is pretty risky because the 4 hr 200 ema is not far off. I wouldnt sell because this pair is in an upswing today so I would wait for a pullback to 227.60 or better like I said before or I would wait for a clear break above the 200 ema on the 4 hr then a pullback close to the 200 ema for a buy. This analysis is just what I see on the charts. Any input would be great.
  • #54,046
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:19am Dec 10, 2007 9:19am
I would like to thank everyone here for the great information and analysis.

If I may add that GBP/USD is currently stable at 2.0450 and USD/JPY may touch 112.00 before going down again, so we may see GBP/JPY to reach 229.00 (2.0450 x 112.00) before going down.
  • #54,047
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:20am Dec 10, 2007 9:20am
Quoting quecee5
Good call on the GJ up move, happening just like you stated -
Also, I agree with your statement above, based on the daily chart GJ has room to move to 230.30/60 and even the 50% fib @ 231.30's as stated in my post yesterday with charts.

Another thing I'm keeping in my hip pocket is the Monthly 5 SMA which is currently @ 233.xx (may be a good long-term shorting opportunities)

Good trading this week. . .
And I was getting ready 2 yell told ya..told ya Currently Price has stalled @ R2=228.71 on 15min as stated by Pipcruiser...Good luck Bud..
  • #54,048
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:22am Dec 10, 2007 9:22am
Quoting Pyramid
I think on Both GU and GJ , down trend has just started...

Keep looking... strong resistance at 2.0515-25 GU and 229.55-70 GJ

The market has bounced as I thought was possible ...
market is also close to the hourly downtrend , hourly peaks on Nov 28th and Dec 4th on gu
UJ still has room to move up to at least 112/112.50 if 111.76 resistance is breached. That could push GJ thru 229.30 resistance to the daily 50% fib level of 231.xx. Also, Weekly's looking very bullish for now. . .

I'm on the sideline since catching pips from my 227 short held over the weekend (down move with opening gap yesterday) until US rate decision is announced on Dec. 11 and UK employment also, due for announcement on Wed. I believe. . .

However, Monthly chart is still bearish for now and I'm expecting UJ, GU and GJ rally to be short lived and the downtrend to resume to next monthly fib level of 219.80's then 209.50/80's within a week or two. . .
  • #54,049
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:23am Dec 10, 2007 9:23am
Well I've been bullish on this pair ever since it bounced off 221.80 area two weeks ago. There was a major retracement last week due to the rate cut by BOE. If the dow keeps performing as strong as it did last week, we might see a break of 229.20. Then we'll be trading in the 230 area until another major negative news sending this pair diving again. If not, it will climb to 240 and if the dow reaches 15k, I think 251 is possible again. So a safe and sound strategy now is to dip-buy this pair.
  • #54,050
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:24am Dec 10, 2007 9:24am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Just a word or two of caution. Personally I'll be looking for a retrace. But there's still some upward potential, so don't over leverage your shorts. After gaining buyers we could see R2 resistance at 228.71, the 38.2% fib at 228.92, or the 4hr 200ema at 228.94.

US pending home sales news is coming up soon. There could be pre-news spikes in either direction. If the stock market loves the results, the upper resistance appears to be R3 at 230.11, 4hr 200sma at 230.17, and the 50% fib at 231.26.
Absolutely support u PC! 38.2% on daily is my TP.
  • #54,051
  • Edited 9:42am Dec 10, 2007 9:28am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Just a word or two of caution. Personally I'll be looking for a retrace. But there's still some upward potential, so don't over leverage your shorts. After gaining buyers we could see R2 resistance at 228.71, the 38.2% fib at 228.92, or the 4hr 200ema at 228.94.

US pending home sales news is coming up soon. There could be pre-news spikes in either direction. If the stock market loves the results, the upper resistance appears to be R3 at 230.11, 4hr 200sma at 230.17, and the 50% fib at 231.26.


Great minds think a like!
  • #54,052
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:29am Dec 10, 2007 9:29am
Quoting PipChick
I have to leave in about an hour but if I were to trade today I think that to buy NOW is pretty risky because the 4 hr 200 ema is not far off. I wouldnt sell because this pair is in an upswing today so I would wait for a pullback to 227.60 or better like I said before or I would wait for a clear break above the 200 ema on the 4 hr then a pullback close to the 200 ema for a buy. This analysis is just what I see on the charts. Any input would be great.
I think that would be playing it smart and cautious. Just about anything could happen from here.

  • #54,053
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:30am Dec 10, 2007 9:30am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Well I've been bullish on this pair ever since it bounced off 221.80 area two weeks ago. There was a major retracement last week due to the rate cut by BOE. If the dow keeps performing as strong as it did last week, we might see a break of 229.20. Then we'll be trading in the 230 area until another major negative news sending this pair diving again. If not, it will climb to 240 and if the dow reaches 15k, I think 251 is possible again. So a safe and sound strategy now is to dip-buy this pair.
One thing we have to remember is the wkly head and shoulders with the top of it setting at your 229.20 resistance. If that breaks, (and it may with the US rate decision) it would be violating the wkly h/s which usually will send the pair a few hundred pips on a 4 hr h/s so the wkly h/s could see several hundred pips on the long side should the 229.20 area be violated. Looks like we will have may good trading opportunities this week.
  • #54,054
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:31am Dec 10, 2007 9:31am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I think that would be playing it smart and cautious. Just about anything could happen from here.

Im consevative..lol
  • #54,055
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:35am Dec 10, 2007 9:35am
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #54,056
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:39am Dec 10, 2007 9:39am
Quoting forexnovice
And I was getting ready 2 yell told ya..told ya Currently Price has stalled @ R2=228.71 on 15min as stated by Pipcruiser...Good luck Bud..
ROTFLMAO!
I like looking at GJ from both long and short perspective. . . I tend to look for opportunities for intraday trading and good set-ups for long-term short/long opportunities.

As stated yesterday, I was neutral short-term as GJ looked to have room to move up to at least 231.xx. . . However, I still think we'll see it stall up at those levels but could see a last minute XMAS push even up to 233 before a big reversal below the neckline. Thats what I'm seeing in the charts from a short and long term view.
  • #54,057
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:40am Dec 10, 2007 9:40am
Quoting quecee5
UJ still has room to move up to at least 112/112.50 if 111.76 resistance is breached. That could push GJ thru 229.30 resistance to the daily 50% fib level of 231.xx. Also, Weekly's looking very bullish for now. . .

I'm on the sideline since catching pips from my 227 short held over the weekend (down move with opening gap yesterday) until US rate decision is announced on Dec. 11 and UK employment also, due for announcement on Wed. I believe. . .

However, Monthly chart is still bearish for now and I'm expecting UJ, GU and GJ rally to be short lived and the downtrend to resume to next monthly fib level of 219.80's then 209.50/80's within a week or two. . .
Thanks quecee5 for the great analysis
  • #54,058
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:41am Dec 10, 2007 9:41am
Quoting karmostaji
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.
Most likely but we may see a little more upside especially if they cut it .5 instead of just .25 which I have heard rumors of.. How does that saying go??? Buy the rumor and sell the facts.lolol
  • #54,059
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:43am Dec 10, 2007 9:43am
Quoting karmostaji
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.
Yeah, it's definately already priced in. I think it shot up like 600 pips in just a couple of hours when the info were leaked by a member of the fed. I think that was on 11/28. But after this rate cut, wallstreet is open to another hope for another cut. So yeah, watch out for another monster bull run.
  • #54,060
  • Dec 10, 2007 9:46am Dec 10, 2007 9:46am
Quoting karmostaji
U.S rate cut is already priced in? Just thinking.
I'd say "yes" it's already priced in. But the market has such a short memory that the stock market will go up more when it's finally announced (or just before it's announced). Then within a day or two it will forget all about it . . . LOL
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