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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #53,941
  • Dec 7, 2007 2:57pm Dec 7, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting dagoods
he usually does lol karm is king! even when he iw wrong he is right lol..... he is longtermer IMo as sometimes there is big drawdown to karms entries but he just pops some patented karmo patience pills and then he is right lol.... he was bull on the rate cut when everyone was bear lol he was right again... his style takes a bit longer is all..... karm if u listening.... U DA MAN!!!!! but seriously as a relative newbie i must say that one of the most important things i have learned is that money management is key as it seems almost everyone was correct eventually if u were patient enough.... price returns as a genral rule if u use money mangaement and set stops that are appropritate to style and timeframes it all works out IMO... i have learned so much from whating all u great traders thanks again
Have a good weekend my friend!
  • #53,942
  • Dec 7, 2007 2:57pm Dec 7, 2007 2:57pm
Ditto......

Quoting my2buoys
No offense, Dagoods, but that was a terrible and incomplete explanation of divergence. Just for your personal record, bearish divergence simply means that price is turning bearish and bullish divergence simply means that price is turning bullish. Divergence can either be indicative that a reversal is on tap or that the present trend is continuing. In the future, please refrain from answering questions to which you don't have an adequate answer because you could end up messing someone up more than helping them. The answer you gave above could definitely screw someone up.

M2B
  • #53,943
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:01pm Dec 7, 2007 3:01pm
Quoting dagoods
he usually does lol karm is king! even when he iw wrong he is right lol.....
I completely agree that Karm is a very professional trader, I've learned a lot from him. Money management is a must for the successful trader, it is the difference between the failure and success. That is what I've learned the hard way.
  • #53,944
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:04pm Dec 7, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting dagoods
divergence is an indication of a possible trend cahnge and a signal to take profits off the table as the trend may be changing....it is NOT used as indicator or entry point generally as it is risky to try to predict tops or bottoms.... it is calculated with rsi i beleive...and it indicates that the speed of the momentum of the move is slowing .....thats all it means... that the momentum of the trend is slowing.....bearish divergence would indicate a possible trend reversal..... POSSIIBLE....but i am no expert.... i m just learning but this is what i think.... another indicator that i prefer as take profit indicator is parabolic sar babypips.com is my favortie place to learn these things... actionforex.com as well...just do an internet search or a search on these threads on forexfactory.com for more info here is one fyi
Bullish and Bearish Divergence Signals - Forex Trading, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal, Forex Training Course, Educatio...
Quecee5 and dagoods thanks! You guys r very helpful and i am learning a lot from everyone on this thread.Keep posting ur analysis! Have a great weekend all.
  • #53,945
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:07pm Dec 7, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting my2buoys
It would take up too much space to give an adequate explantion of divergence in this thread. Please Google 'Divergence in trading' and you will get all the info you need. Also check out Peter Bain's website. He has excellent material on divergence. As far as interpreting my chart above, look at the black lines I drew above price and above MACD and Momentum. Notice how they 'diverge' (go in opposite directions). That's all the space I'll take for explanation. You can get the rest online.

M2B
M2B Thanks! Will do as advised.Have a great weekend!!
  • #53,946
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:41pm Dec 7, 2007 3:41pm
Quoting mentone3
Quecee5 and dagoods thanks! You guys r very helpful and i am learning a lot from everyone on this thread.Keep posting ur analysis! Have a great weekend all.
  • #53,947
  • Dec 7, 2007 3:59pm Dec 7, 2007 3:59pm
Have a good weekend all, its been a very good tradiing week.
Talk to ya Sunday evening. . .

  • #53,948
  • Edited 4:14pm Dec 7, 2007 4:13pm | Edited 4:14pm
Here is a custom alert indicator for MT4 platforms that I find very usefull, along with a short instructional video.
Rod

So this little video is put together to demonstrate this Visual Interface for MT4.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ds1BZl78xQ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Chin Breakout Alert.mq4   17 KB | 411 downloads
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,949
  • Dec 7, 2007 6:30pm Dec 7, 2007 6:30pm
Thanks for that

Quoting maestr2
Here is a custom alert indicator for MT4 platforms that I find very usefull, along with a short instructional video.
Rod

So this little video is put together to demonstrate this Visual Interface for MT4.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ds1BZl78xQ
  • #53,950
  • Dec 8, 2007 8:38am Dec 8, 2007 8:38am
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  • #53,951
  • Dec 8, 2007 9:15am Dec 8, 2007 9:15am
An interesting read 4 those trying 2 understand corelation netween equity markets & GJ http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=59687
  • #53,952
  • Dec 8, 2007 10:47am Dec 8, 2007 10:47am
Quoting forexnovice
An interesting read 4 those trying 2 understand corelation netween equity markets & GJ http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=59687
This was a very interesting article indeed!
Thxs forexnovice. . .

One question for you - you are positioning yourself to go long GJ right?
Does that mean you are buying on dips and believe that GJ has already reached its low (221's) in the short-term and is headed back to touch the 50% possibly the 61.8% fib line before reversing and breaking the H&S base line?

The reason why I ask is UJ seems to be facing falling trend line resistance @ 111.76 and maybe limited to how much further it will extend upwards before reversing back toward maybe new lows (105 area).

Also, with a falling GU due to deteriorating financial market conditions and possibly more downside risk I'm just curious as to why you see GJ as a long? Is your strategey more long-term and positive interest based?

Just curious. . .
  • #53,953
  • Dec 8, 2007 12:22pm Dec 8, 2007 12:22pm
I woke up this morning with the following thought...

It's well known the the jpy crosses often mirror the global equity mkts
because of risk appetite, etc. Ergo, the carry trade carries on, the stock market goes higher.
We all know how that's supposed to work, although the term, "decoupling" has been popping up
recently to explain some of the annomilies of late.

Okay, so many of the Fund managers are expecting if not depending on a X-mas rally to pull
their butts out of the fire. The ones who got an early start are up 6, 7 maybe 9% on the index averages,
but the ones who showed up late for the party are up against the wall.

It's the carry trade that fuels the equity mkt fires, not the other way around.

Although, I wouldn't rule out another stab at 230 or so, I'm concerned it could end up being
a last gasp before a more significant correction gets underway. I'm not poo-pooing the yen carry.
To the contrary, until Japan has atleast 3% interest rates (which could take years)
and the crown currencies have less than 100 bps yield spread over the yen,
the carry should continue, fundamentally speaking, until the cows come home.
It's just that for RIGHT NOW, with the recent movements of late underway,
it's becoming more difficult to hold that interest cash cow by the horns.

So, without a bullish carry trade move, or a significant "decoupling" this month,
either somebody's going to be disappointed, or everybody's gonna be very confused this holiday.

or maybe the aliens landed.....so it won't matter, right ?
  • #53,954
  • Dec 8, 2007 1:47pm Dec 8, 2007 1:47pm
Thanx 4 asking...thought I would quell ur qurious queries on a qomplete stomach Nothing better than a coupla charts so here ya go..

First chart shows that on the smaller TFs(4hr), GJ has completed all the major fib retracements taken frm the swing Hi to swing Lo. I have explained my macro perspective(weekly) in the earlier charts..

Second chart which supports ur bearish view shows that resistance @ major fib levels 61.8 & 78.6 still needs 2 be Breached successfully with 4hr candles closing above those levels.

Third chart shows the violet line extending frm 238.84 that was acting as resistance breached successfully..
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  • #53,955
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:14pm Dec 8, 2007 2:14pm
Zoom out on the Monthly UJ chart & u will see that blue line providing decent support..

Weekly shows UJ is heading 4 the 61.8 fib which coincides with that green TL drawn on the monthly..If u r familiar with PA, u must have noticed that BUOVB on weekly.
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  • #53,956
  • Dec 8, 2007 2:26pm Dec 8, 2007 2:26pm
I have already posted the Weekly GU charts but thought I would point out the Pin formed on the Daily bouncing frm the Weekly supporting TL.
I try 2 keep it as simple as possible..

Market might prove me otherwise..till then trading what the charts show me...
Have a Nice Weekend
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  • #53,957
  • Edited Dec 9, 2007 9:24am Dec 8, 2007 5:45pm | Edited Dec 9, 2007 9:24am
Great analysis forexnovice - I really appreciate you taking the time to explain your position!

Lets look @ GJ from another perspective. . .

Starting with the 4hr chart, looks like the bigger trend could be down. Also, looks like we've hit 50%, 38.2% and now 23.6% fibs from the bigger trend.
Also, if you look @ 15min and 1hr chart (which I do not show) there are double and triple tops around the 227.xx area. Although, I think GJ might get a push up to at least touch r2 on a daily @ 227.38 or so (maybe). Lastly, all indicators look to be slowly turning over and appears that 223 could be the next stop for GJ. . .

Now lets look at an even bigger picture - Daily Chart, if GJ heads down and break through 4hr support (at the bottom of the channel), it appears GJ could be facing 221.90 (neckline) once again and if broken look out below. Btw, 231.xx happens to be at/above the 50% fib you see on Daily and 4hr chart. The reason I say this is on those same chart @ 38% fib there is a double top up there we'd have to get through to head up further.
I am a bit neutral looking at this daily charts b/c's Mom and RSI are screaming higher for now. Have to wait and see what happens on Sunday's open. Also, lower TF's are all bearish so maybe HTF's haven't caught up yet.

Okay, lastly let look at the final picture - Monthly. From this chart GJ could go back up ad test 231.xx which is at the top of the 23.6% gann line. Although most of the indicators has GJ headed in a down trend toward 38.2% if it breaks significant support. Also, Mom. (blue pointing up) looks las if GJ could move up a bit or like the daily maybe it hasn't caught up to the lower TF's.

All in all, looking at the Daily chart GJ seems to be making lower high and lower lows since July. Also, looking at the high and low from the 50% fib and using that same price change for the wave started @ the 38.2% fib it would suggest 218 could be a next down move. . .

Anyway, I'll be watching what GU, UJ and GJ does on Sunday to determine where it is ultimately headed but right now I'm leaning toward Berish and have shorts I held over the weekend @ 227.04 with open targets until 2morrow's open. . .

Also, I believe UK's PPI numbers come out on Monday and Employment on Wed. And then we have US rate decision on Tuesday. A weak PPI/Employment number for the UK could suggest additional rate cuts and could send GU through TL support down to 2.000 - vice versa if the numbers are good. .

Feedback welcomed. . .

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  • #53,958
  • Dec 9, 2007 5:29am Dec 9, 2007 5:29am
Quoting quecee5
See enclosed. . .
thanks quecee ,

I read the pdf , there is an indicator used for divergence pattern (price oscillator 5-15).do you have this indicator? or we can find it in MT4 ?

with regards,
younes55
  • #53,959
  • Edited 9:25am Dec 9, 2007 8:50am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting younes55
thanks quecee ,

I read the pdf , there is an indicator used for divergence pattern (price oscillator 5-15).do you have this indicator? or we can find it in MT4 ?

with regards,
younes55
I do have this indicator but I don't work on MT4. . .
  • #53,960
  • Edited 9:08am Dec 9, 2007 8:53am | Edited 9:08am
Thanx Quecee5. Ur charts & views r congruent 2 that expressed by other members on the forum...Also check the monthly gj chart, u will notice 2 significant unfilled gaps, one on 02/81-256pips & 09/90-430pips...And,lol, I am not long bcoz of that, just something 2 keep in mind. There were other gaps as well but almost all of them have been filled...There might be slight discrepancies due 2 different timezones, my broker uses GMT time.
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