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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #301
  • Edited 8:25pm Dec 5, 2007 3:10pm | Edited 8:25pm
fiveshorts ...

I have been taking a good look at myself because of your feedback, so I went to your profile to see where you posted in feb's "The System (Irony)" thread so that I could reread where I might have been overstepping my welcome there and how I have communicated unfavorably, and the only place I have ever responded to anything you had posted was here --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post1710040

Further down is your reply and then my reply again below that.

In all fairness, I only posted that because we were all talking about not taking counter-trends and sticking with feb's system of only trading with the trend, etc., so in a joking manner, I scolded you. I humbly apologize if you were hurt by it, and I have to be careful and take into account that not everyone has the same sense-of-humor as I do. To be honest, I was only looking out for your welfare, since I was worried that you were deviating from the system.

After looking back at feb's thread and seeing that I only stepped on your toes that one time (and you have many posts in that thread prior), I can see that you have held resentment for me from that incident. I am really sorry for that. I truly apologize with all my heart

As far as your mentioning that this is a business and not a yoga retreat ... well, in a sorta way, it's a combination of both, lol. Maybe because fti, me and some others here believe in the "inner" having affect on the "outer" we subscribe to the belief that our "mindset" and inner workings have very much an importance on our functioning of everyday life/business/relationships/etc. Those who do not subscribe to this may have a hard time relating, thus seeing this thread and all the lessons that fti is posing as a waste of time.

I am Asian by ethnicity, but born and raised in America, so I have both Asian upbringing mixed with American ways. It's funny, but my husband, who is Caucasian, subscribes and believes in a lot of the Asian culture of the "inner" balancing of mind, body and spirit, as well, so there are others (who are not Asian) who utilize these philosophies/beliefs into their lives, as well.

At the risk of sounding arrogant and condescending (which I truly am not wanting to come across, because I only want to help and never hurt you), I would humbly ask that you please take a look at where your "inner" self (mindset/mental attitude) may be affecting your "outer" decisions (forex/business/relationships/etc.). It will bring you more success (yes, I am aware you already have success from your mention earlier, but we can always use more, right? ) in your trading skills.

I encourage you to read through this thread again, and embrace the "mindset" lessons that fti has set down as the foundation to trading, because this, in my opinion, is as vital an aspect as what he will be sharing with us later on MM and strategies.

I hope you can forgive me for our past misunderstandings. LOL, in future, I will avoid responding to your posts in regards to trading, so as not to run the risk of stepping on your toes ever again
  • #302
  • Edited 8:13pm Dec 5, 2007 3:30pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting fti
Hey I thought you hit the sack already. Why? small pips profit, not enough ?
Huh? I posted that like approx. one minute after I ended the session. You posted like 3 hours after my post, so I was sleeping already, sheesh!

LOL, did you notice that it went down further, haha. I was just so tired from lack of sleep the night before that I couldn't stay up any longer to finish it, so had to pull baby out early. But, I am happy with last night's results, cuz it was still a winner and not a loser, lol.

Quoting fti
Be gracious, and accept Zoran's nice words, lah. Read his statement carefully, He didn't meant that he owed you anything, just wanted to sound his appreciation to you.
Yeah, yeah, I read it correctly. It's my upbringing to not accept praise graciously, so what can I say?

Thank you for the kind words, Zoran, I will accept it graciously

And also thank you for your explanation of your trades. LOL, but I only wanted to know your total pip count and time duration so I can quantify your results, but I understand that you may not want to post that in public, so I will drop the subject. I appreciate the time you took to reply. Much success to you with your trading!

Quoting SunTrader
ahhhh indicators/strategies.
LOL, you so funny, SunTrader. You are persistent, I give you that.

Even if the TA parts you don't agree with, fti's MM might be something that you will find useful. Again, just take value with what makes sense to you. If nothing makes sense to you here, then that's okay, too.

------

Okay, I will post less from now on, cuz I don't wanna be accused of taking the mike/mic too often, lol. And this is fti's thread anyway, so we are here to hear what he has to say. Thanks to all who have put up with me, lol. Oh, and please, no need to post anything to make me feel better, I am quite okay, really. Like I said, feedback is good to make us better people and I subscribe to that belief as much as I subscribe to the belief of improving our "inner" selves/mindset/etc.
  • #303
  • Dec 5, 2007 3:35pm Dec 5, 2007 3:35pm
I have a few questions for clarification about your personal style and don't feel the need to answer if you don't wish.

I'm trying to understand the way you use as you say weekly/monthly graphs to set S/R for intraday, however for G/J it's very trendy and only recently I see a couple possibilities to have clear S/R that wouldn't be very debatable on that level, so what ranges do you use for intraday more or less.
I ask intraday since it's even more complicated with longer term since it doesn't have many slowdowns since the end of last year.The way I look at it is we might be looking for a big downturn soon, but since I'm not that experienced I hate to be wrong when it's only a couple pullbacks if that will be the case.
Looking at the big picture are we looking at a big downturn on G/J at this point, it very much looks like a head + shoulders formation on the monthly however I don't like to trust historical models to predict trends but even still it seems it doesn't want to go up much more and is keeping to the low end last couple of months.

Anyways looking for any thoughts here

PS. love the thoughts about mindsets leighww, personally I try to do a lot of "management" if you will in my own life to keep things in order in a way and not to lose sight of the big picture by having myself in check, although I tend to question this method once in a while since it can really mess with your mind

Quoting Zoran
Whether intraday or short term, the same type of analysis can be used, it just tends to happen a lot faster intraday and there is more turbulence. Although longer term can produce more pips on a single position, there needs to be more room for error so sizing must reflect this.

It will be interesting to see whether fti's strategy works on the larger timeframes.
  • #304
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:05pm Dec 5, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting Zoran
Whether intraday or short term, the same type of analysis can be used, it just tends to happen a lot faster intraday and there is more turbulence. Although longer term can produce more pips on a single position, there needs to be more room for error so sizing must reflect this.

It will be interesting to see whether fti's strategy works on the larger timeframes.
I have been thinking about this myself the last few days, for myself at least the strategy is to be like 'the general', sit back and watch the battle, inspect the troops regularly looking for early signs of strength and weakness for entry/exit, when found it is time to look a bit closer at the action by drilling down through the time frames looking again for the condition of 'the troops' or price action. If there is clear or consistent signs of weakening/strength it's time to choose your next strategy and act.
  • #305
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:22pm Dec 5, 2007 4:22pm
In such a case however, shouldn't you make sure that there will be no news affecting your "weakening/strengthening" soon in the future? you can often see the price slowly moving towards one way right before a major break out if news comes out, sometimes even without news...
I've been thinking about the same thing but even if you go in the direction of the trend sometimes it goes opposite for a nice while before it returns. A good example was last week on G/J I believe when it jumped up and only recovered this week, and if you bail out on a couple of hundred pip jump that you called an opposite way you're in a very big -.

That's the problem I have that something unexpected as that happens and you want to bail because you begin questioning if all your troops won't get killed soon. Unless I was completely off on my analysis, but I didn't see a reason for such a jump whatsoever at that point until it happened, and kept on going. It wasn't at a support level at that point either.

Sorry for criticizing without a better alternative just trying to shed some light and hopefully learn something myself if someone has any input.


Quoting MickD
I have been thinking about this myself the last few days, for myself at least the strategy is to be like 'the general', sit back and watch the battle, inspect the troops regularly looking for early signs of strength and weakness for entry/exit, when found it is time to look a bit closer at the action by drilling down through the time frames looking again for the condition of 'the troops' or price action. If there is clear or consistent signs of weakening/strength it's time to choose your next strategy and act.
  • #306
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:26pm Dec 5, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting leighsww
Yeah, yeah, I read it correctly. It's my upbringing to not accept praise graciously, so what can I say?

Thank you for the kind words, Zoran, I will accept it graciously

And also thank you for your explanation of your trades. LOL, but I only wanted to know your total pip count and time duration so I can quantify your results, but I understand that you may not want to post that in public, so I will drop the subject. I appreciate the time you took to reply. Much success to you with your trading!
Thank you for accepting graciously. http://uk.mg1.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...Inbox&inline=1Can I make you more uncomfortable by continually complimenting you?

OK, total pip count in the first month (off the top of my head) was about 5200. That is about 4000 on GBP/JPY (Guppy or Geppy) and 1200 on GBP/USD (Cable) on multiples.

What pairs do you normally trade?

PS. I have too many screens in front of me and keep posting in the wrong one! I'm sure you know what I mean!
  • #307
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:42pm Dec 5, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting jonaslt
In such a case however, shouldn't you make sure that there will be no news affecting your "weakening/strengthening" soon in the future? you can often see the price slowly moving towards one way right before a major break out if news comes out, sometimes even without news...
I've been thinking about the same thing but even if you go in the direction of the trend sometimes it goes opposite for a nice while before it returns. A good example was last week on G/J I believe when it jumped up and only recovered this week, and if you bail out on a couple of hundred pip jump that you called an opposite way you're in a very big -.

That's the problem I have that something unexpected as that happens and you want to bail because you begin questioning if all your troops won't get killed soon. Unless I was completely off on my analysis, but I didn't see a reason for such a jump whatsoever at that point until it happened, and kept on going. It wasn't at a support level at that point either.

Sorry for criticizing without a better alternative just trying to shed some light and hopefully learn something myself if someone has any input.
Don't be sorry at all, this is a discussion and we need to analyze everything being said if we want to understand .
Your point is quite valid, perhaps as the general you can be aware of the surroundings, such as the weather, but that doesn't always dictate the outcome.
I think my point is you must be aware of what is happening at all times, while longer time frames (while the war 'looks' ok) may give you room to breathe you still need to monitor the individual battles going on for early signs of change.
You must always be ready to retreat and regroup (if you still have soldiers) when you are being defeated quickly and convincingly though!
  • #308
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:45pm Dec 5, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting jonaslt
PS. love the thoughts about mindsets leighww, personally I try to do a lot of "management" if you will in my own life to keep things in order in a way and not to lose sight of the big picture by having myself in check, although I tend to question this method once in a while since it can really mess with your mind
LOL

Quoting Zoran
OK, total pip count in the first month (off the top of my head) was about 5200. That is about 4000 on GBP/JPY (Guppy or Geppy) and 1200 on GBP/USD (Cable) on multiples.
5200 per month / 20 trading days = 260 pips per day

EXCELLENT stats, Zoran!! Good job!!

Let us know how it continues (its consistency), as the months progress.

* edited - P.S. I am only breaking it down on a per day basis, because that's the only way to quantify both the long-term and short-term method comparisons. However, I realize that if fti trades more than 1.5 - 2.5 hours a day, then his results will also increase in value.

Quoting Zoran
What pairs do you normally trade?
Well, up until a day ago I was watching 9 pairs but only trade 1 or 2 at any given time. I felt I had to watch more pairs cuz the dang buses were just so far between for longer-term when trend-trading, lol.

But, fti convinced me that it would be to my benefit to stay focused on the 4 majors (E/U, U/J, G/U and U/CHF), so that's what I now do. His point made sense, cuz he said they were more liquid and that I would also get to know them and their movements well to be able to trade them better.

Quoting Zoran
PS. I have too many screens in front of me and keep posting in the wrong one! I'm sure you know what I mean!
LOL
  • #309
  • Dec 5, 2007 4:52pm Dec 5, 2007 4:52pm
I'd rather not move away from the purpose of this thread and keep it focused on fti although I will explain quickly this one time.

Intraday analysis is normally done on the smaller timeframes though it is a good idea to keep the larger ones in focus as they tend to hold more weight. With regard to the H&S on the weekly, I do not consider that valid unless the NL breaks. Until then or the action shows otherwise, I will play the long. (my last call produced 800 pips off the bounce). So where is the NL?

Quoting jonaslt
I have a few questions for clarification about your personal style and don't feel the need to answer if you don't wish.

I'm trying to understand the way you use as you say weekly/monthly graphs to set S/R for intraday, however for G/J it's very trendy and only recently I see a couple possibilities to have clear S/R that wouldn't be very debatable on that level, so what ranges do you use for intraday more or less.
I ask intraday since it's even more complicated with longer term since it doesn't have many slowdowns since the end of last year.The way I look at it is we might be looking for a big downturn soon, but since I'm not that experienced I hate to be wrong when it's only a couple pullbacks if that will be the case.
Looking at the big picture are we looking at a big downturn on G/J at this point, it very much looks like a head + shoulders formation on the monthly however I don't like to trust historical models to predict trends but even still it seems it doesn't want to go up much more and is keeping to the low end last couple of months.

Anyways looking for any thoughts here

PS. love the thoughts about mindsets leighww, personally I try to do a lot of "management" if you will in my own life to keep things in order in a way and not to lose sight of the big picture by having myself in check, although I tend to question this method once in a while since it can really mess with your mind
  • #310
  • Dec 5, 2007 5:06pm Dec 5, 2007 5:06pm
Quoting leighsww
5200 per month / 20 trading days = 260 pips per day

EXCELLENT stats, Zoran!! Good job!!

Let us know how it continues (its consistency), as the months progress.

* edited - P.S. I am only breaking it down on a per day basis, because that's the only way to quantify both the long-term and short-term method comparisons. However, I realize that if fti trades more than 1.5 - 2.5 hours a day, then his results will also increase in value.

Well, up until a day ago I was watching 9 pairs but only trade 1 or 2 at any given time. I felt I had to watch more pairs cuz the dang buses were just so far between for longer-term when trend-trading, lol.

But, fti convinced me that it would be to my benefit to stay focused on the 4 majors (E/U, U/J, G/U and U/CHF), so that's what I now do. His point made sense, cuz he said they were more liquid and that I would also get to know them and their movements well to be able to trade them better.
Thanks Leigh...

Consistency is the key and the test of time will prove its worth. I started on E/U then moved to G/U and now I'm on G/J. I'm also following U/J but I've never really followed U/CHF. So my 4 pairs are E/U, G/U and E/J with my pet pair being G/J. There is also some DOW and US-Crude mixed in.
  • #311
  • Dec 5, 2007 6:50pm Dec 5, 2007 6:50pm
Hi ALL

here's something about SIZE.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...m_medium=email

enjoy.

regards
  • #312
  • Dec 5, 2007 7:08pm Dec 5, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL

here's something about SIZE.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...m_medium=email

enjoy.

regards
Well, it's bed time here but before I go, I think your way of teaching is great... Through stories and humour. Is that the Chinese way?
  • #313
  • Dec 5, 2007 10:37pm Dec 5, 2007 10:37pm
Just finished reading the whole thread, guess it's really great to see a fellow Singaporean with so much experience in trading. After going through tons of books and systems, I must admit that I have been in search for the holy grail for a long time, spending time on reading and reading and not doing any practical trading.

Well I have learnt my lessons and have decided to focus on just price actions and trade naked. Doubt I'm going to change the system anymore. It's not really about which system you use but more about perfecting a system which suits your style of trading.

Will continue to read and learn on this thread and hopefully I can see you face to face one day FTI!
  • #314
  • Dec 5, 2007 11:17pm Dec 5, 2007 11:17pm
Quoting doremi
I would consider myself a newbie....it's not easy to maintain consistant profitablity. Sometimes you make good pips but one silly mistakes, you're back to square one. My personal experience is that most newbies lack patience and always got the itch to trade. We seldom remember there is always a another trade.

I'm looking forward to learn more from this thread.
Nice post, doremi! Overtrading is common for new traders, because making a trade is exciting and it gives you an adrenaline rush. It becomes psychologically addictive just like a drug, and you go back for more (and more). With time it tends to become less exciting, and the number of trades decreases. But you can help yourself along by reviewing your trades on a weekly basis, trade by trade, and with a weekly pip total. When you see the facts staring you in the face, that if it wasn't for those ill advised trades you'd have met your pip target, it really does help pull in the reigns. For me, my overtrading was like taking two steps forward and one step back. Once I started being more discriminating, the pips began adding up.

P.S. - Patience is something everyone has, but few practice. Exercise it regularly and it will grow strong!

  • #315
  • Edited 2:30am Dec 6, 2007 2:03am | Edited 2:30am
Hi ALL,

@ pipmaster,

Glad you like the style.
I don't know about the rest of the chinese,
there's too many of us.
Got "nine million bicycles in Beijing alone".
( Nine million bicycles - Katie Malua).
Anyway this is the style of fti.( fu zhou Long )
One of the billion of chinese around.

"In all the black there is the white,
In all the white there is the black."

" As above, so below"

Goodnight pipmaster.

@ antinomian

Just for info, Although I am living in singapore for 20+ years now.
I am 4th generation overseas chinese but I am not Singaporean.
Next generation is.
I am expat.

Read my postings carefully, Stop to think and relate to your trading.
Then try to formulate the MO behind the written.
Casual thinking just skims the surface.
Ask yourself questions outloud.
Debate the issue without boundaries.
Think "out of the predefined box"
And go right to the basic foundation of the study,
Most of the postings go very deep in doctrine.
The methodology is in the postings. (KISS)
seek and you shall find, ask and it shall be answered.
Practice, Use it or lose it.

study well.

regards
  • #316
  • Edited 2:41am Dec 6, 2007 2:04am | Edited 2:41am
A Lesson about Mind Over Matter.
A young pretty Maiden, A Monk and A Young Monk.
(Not Another Crossing the River Story)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Once upon a time long.... long ago, somewhere in China.
A Monk and a young monk in training, came to the banks of a stream.
There at the banks stood a young pretty maiden in tears.

Whats the matter? the Monk asked the maiden.
I need to cross the stream, to meet with my groom, the maiden replied, but I cannot,
(you see in china then, all the pretty maidens had their feet binded
and have grave difficulty in walking through uneven terrain.)

So being the gentleman that he is, the Monk offered to carry the maiden across.
The Monk then carried the maiden on his back across the stream.
Arriving across the stream, the happy lady quickly thanked him and went on her way.
The monk then went along his way with the young monk.

After a few hours, of walking,
the monk noticed that the young monk was troubled and too silent.
He enquired and the young monk replied with a question.

Aren't we monks, by oath, not to touch women?, he asked
Yes replied the monk.
Why do you ask?, asked the monk.
No special reason, replied the young monk,
Just that you carried that pretty maiden across the stream, a couple of hours ago.

Oh!, exclaimed the Monk.
I carried her on my back across the stream,
and across, I have unload her from my back and she is happily on her journey.
and you have been carrying her all the while, since then?,
you should unload her as soon as you can, before it becomes too much of a burden for you to bear.

---END---
  • #317
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:04am Dec 6, 2007 3:04am
Quoting fti
A Lesson about Mind Over Matter.
A young pretty Maiden, A Monk and A Young Monk.
(Not Another Crossing the River Story)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Once upon a time long.... long ago, somewhere in China.
A Monk and a young monk in training, came to the banks of a stream.
There at the banks stood a young pretty maiden in tears.

Whats the matter? the Monk asked the maiden.
I need to cross the stream, to meet with my groom, the maiden replied, but I cannot,
(you see in china then, all the pretty maidens had their feet binded
and have grave difficulty in walking through uneven terrain.)

So being the gentleman that he is, the Monk offered to carry the maiden across.
The Monk then carried the maiden on his back across the stream.
Arriving across the stream, the happy lady quickly thanked him and went on her way.
The monk then went along his way with the young monk.

After a few hours, of walking,
the monk noticed that the young monk was troubled and too silent.
He enquired and the young monk replied with a question.

Aren't we monks, by oath, not to touch women?, he asked
Yes replied the monk.
Why do you ask?, asked the monk.
No special reason, replied the young monk,
Just that you carried that pretty maiden across the stream, a couple of hours ago.

Oh!, exclaimed the Monk.
I carried her on my back across the stream,
and across, I have unload her from my back and she is happily on her journey.
and you have been carrying her all the while, since then?,
you should unload her as soon as you can, before it becomes too much of a burden for you to bear.

---END---
oh , thanks for sharing the interesting chinese story. it is really no use crying over split milk....haha
  • #318
  • Dec 6, 2007 3:56am Dec 6, 2007 3:56am
Hi Fti, thank you for the story, I see your point
  • #319
  • Edited 4:19am Dec 6, 2007 4:01am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting fti
A Lesson about Mind Over Matter.
Oh!, exclaimed the Monk.
I carried her on my back across the stream,
and across, I have unload her from my back and she is happily on her journey.
and you have been carrying her all the while, since then?,
you should unload her as soon as you can, before it becomes too much of a burden for you to bear.

---END---
So basically it's okay to do evil/break your own rules/abandon your values if the moment seems opportune etc as long as you hush it up ASAP and forget about it?

They should have told her to take off the shoes, offered theirs and told her that if anyone were to hassler her about the shoes before she got to the other side they'd protect her(or just started up a revolution against feet crippling in the first place)...that woulda been a lot nicer and wouldn't have gone against their own rules.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #320
  • Dec 6, 2007 5:25am Dec 6, 2007 5:25am
Quoting SeekingLight
So basically it's okay to do evil/break your own rules/abandon your values if the moment seems opportune etc as long as you hush it up ASAP and forget about it?

They should have told her to take off the shoes, offered theirs and told her that if anyone were to hassler her about the shoes before she got to the other side they'd protect her(or just started up a revolution against feet crippling in the first place)...that woulda been a lot nicer and wouldn't have gone against their own rules.
SL, I thouht I had to respond to this, so here it goes, don't take it the wrong way.

The rules of the society/culture carry far more weight than those particular rules in that situation to those particular monks, for the lady to disgrace herself by not following tradition on the way to her groom would be catastrophic. But by a monk agreeing to carry her across even though it went against certain rules of their order, simply meant doing a good deed for the overall good of the lady. So you see he had to sacrifice his rules in order for the lady not to sacrifice hers. But as soon as he was done he had let go of that as something that took place but nothing more. It was an action against his rules, but it was something that he had no choice in. Hence mind over matter analogy, sometimes we might do things that are out of our control, but we must be able to let them go in order to move on and concentrate in the NOW, the moment, not dwell in the past.

Hope this clears things up for you
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