Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

My trade rating system is very subjective right now. Let's keep it simple.

Poor - 1 *

Fair - 2 **'s

Good - 3 ***'s

Excellent - 4 ****'s

Note that the strong German PMI data release at 3:55 ET came out after the large upwards move in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Forex News said, "The data from the euro zone this morning came out to be in line with the expectations, reinforcing the view that the ECB needs to keep raising rate to contain inflation. Germany manufacturing PMI rose from 58.3 to 59.4 in December, beating the forecast for 58.6. The manufacturing PMI for the Euro zone was almost unchanged at 56.5 in December, basically in line with the estimate of 56.8. The euro stays firm after these strong manufacturing data. The news:

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">Tue. 01/02</td> <td class="alt1"> 3:55am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt1">German Manufacturing PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">59.4</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">58.3</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">58.3</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3410" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3410" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 4:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt1">Manufacturing PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.5</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.5</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">56.6</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3411" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3411" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 4:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt1">Manufacturing PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">51.9</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">53.0</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">52.6</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3412" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3412" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> all day </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">National Day of Mourning</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3432" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3432" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

US stock markets will be closed in observance of the recent death of Gerald R. Ford, the 38th President of the US. Other US financial markets remain open.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> all day </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Holiday: New Years Holiday</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td></tr></thead></table>

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 21:00 ET

Trade Experiment #298A Sell AUD/CAD at .9288

Stop should be .9321

The first target is .9000

The second target is .8840

Risk is 42 pips

Reward is 279 / 439 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.6 / 10.5 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

p.s. - recent high is .9298 (entry price met)
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________

Previous comments:

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 11:00 ET

AUD/CAD keeps rising. .9265 was the top of a smaller wave, but another wave is carrying the price higher. The recent high is .9283. The estimated top of the entire swing trend is .9290 to .9300.
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

AUD/CAD possible high here at .9263
Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 5:45 ET

It's possible that AUD/CAD will top out here at .9263. However, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD have the potential to go a bit higher. On the positive side, USD/CAD looks ready to drop, which will bring down AUD/CAD.

AUD/CAD has a potential reversal value at.9300 also, but I suspect that there will be a sizeable correction before this value is hit, if it is hit.
_____________________________________________
_____________________________________________

Previous Comment:

AUD/CAD rose to a high probability reversal point - .9243, which I should have foreseen. This was our exact stop. The stop should have been higher than this. Raise stop. The wave pattern looks complete and all targets, save one at .9257 on uptrend have been met. Reversal at this price is probable. Also - AUD/USD has reached a high probability reversal price. This is positive, as it is likely to reverse at .7950 or thereabouts.

Adjust stop to .9271 from previous value of .9243
__________________________________________________ __
__________________________________________________ __

Previous trade experiment:

Friday December 29 at 15:30 ET
Trade Experiment #298 Sell AUD/CAD at .9208
Stop should be .9243
The first target is .9000
The second target is .8840
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 199 / 359 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.5 / 8.2
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

Wednesday January 3, 2007 at 2:45 ET

We believe that the last upwards wave has only completed 1-2-3 and is now doing the fourth wave down. According to our current wave hypothesis, there is still the fifth wave up to go, so we will exit at the bottom of wave 4 at .9272 and re-enter at the top of wave 5 at about 1.9307.

Adjust target for Trade Experiment #298A Sell AUD/CAD to .9272
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___________________________________________

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 21:00 ET

Trade Experiment #298A Sell AUD/CAD at .9288
Stop should be .9321
The first target is .9000
The second target is .8840
Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 279 / 439 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.6 / 10.5 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

p.s. - recent high is .9298 (entry price met)
__________________________________________________ ____
__________________________________________________ ____

Previous comments:

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 11:00 ET

AUD/CAD keeps rising. .9265 was the top of a smaller wave, but another wave is carrying the price higher. The recent high is .9283. The estimated top of the entire swing trend is .9290 to .9300.
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

AUD/CAD possible high here at .9263
Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 5:45 ET

It's possible that AUD/CAD will top out here at .9263. However, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD have the potential to go a bit higher. On the positive side, USD/CAD looks ready to drop, which will bring down AUD/CAD.

AUD/CAD has a potential reversal value at.9300 also, but I suspect that there will be a sizeable correction before this value is hit, if it is hit.
_____________________________________________
_____________________________________________

Previous Comment:

AUD/CAD rose to a high probability reversal point - .9243, which I should have foreseen. This was our exact stop. The stop should have been higher than this. Raise stop. The wave pattern looks complete and all targets, save one at .9257 on uptrend have been met. Reversal at this price is probable. Also - AUD/USD has reached a high probability reversal price. This is positive, as it is likely to reverse at .7950 or thereabouts.

Adjust stop to .9271 from previous value of .9243
__________________________________________________ __
__________________________________________________ __

Previous trade experiment:

Friday December 29 at 15:30 ET
Trade Experiment #298 Sell AUD/CAD at .9208
Stop should be .9243
The first target is .9000
The second target is .8840
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 199 / 359 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.5 / 8.2
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

Exit GBP/USD at 1.9620
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Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 9:15 ET

Trade Experiment #302 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9749

Stop is 1.9782

Target is 1.9530

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 215 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.8 / 1

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade Wave C of Wave 4 down.

p.s. - recent high is 1.9749 (entry price met)

Itme,

Thank you so much for this awesome gift!

I've been reading your thread for about 1 week and yesterday decided to take the #302 trade, when we hit the entry price yesterday and now I listened again and closed the trade for +129 pips which basically happened while I was sleeping.

Keep up the Fantastic work

Roroe


Exit GBP/USD at 1.9620
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Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 9:15 ET

Trade Experiment #302 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9749

Stop is 1.9782

Target is 1.9530

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 215 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.8 / 1

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade Wave C of Wave 4 down.

p.s. - recent high is 1.9749 (entry price met)
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

item, thanks for sharing forecast

Wednesday January 3 at 6:45 ET

Trade Experiment #303 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594

Enter Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594

Stop is 1.9569

Target is 1.9705

Risk is 29 pips

Reward is 107 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 3.7

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards Wave B of a downwards Wave 4 of an upwards extended Third Wave.
______________________

Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 9:15 ET
Trade Experiment #302 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9749
Stop is 1.9782
Target is 1.9530
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 215 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.8 / 1
Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade Wave C of Wave 4 down.

p.s. - recent high is 1.9749 (entry price met)

Wednesday January 3 at 7:45 ET

Trade Experiment #304 Sell EUR/JPY at 161.00

Stop is 162.11

Target is 155.00

Risk is 114 pips

Reward is 600 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.3

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is a plan to trade a downwards Wave 1 of a new downwards trend. Estimated time of entry: February 2006.

Wednesday January 3 at 8:00 ET

After more analysis we believe that GBP/USD will descend to a new low at about 1.9580. Therefore adjust exit target to 1.9617 to claim 19 pips of profit and re-enter at the bottom of the next downwards small five wave pattern.

p.s. - GBP/USD went to an interim high of 1.9632 , thus hitting our adjusted exit target
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday January 3 at 6:45 ET
Trade Experiment #303 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594
Enter Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594
Stop is 1.9569
Target is 1.9705
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 107 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 3.7

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards Wave B of a downwards Wave 4 of an upwards extended Third Wave.

DEC ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -40K V 120KE - no revisions

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">Wed. 01/03</td> <td class="alt1"> 3:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">CHF</td> <td class="alt1">SVME PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">65.0</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">66.0</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">67.0</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3435" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3435" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Schweizerischer Verband für Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME) Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 3:55am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt1">German Unemployment Rate</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">9.8%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">10.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">10.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3436" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3436" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy. However, unemployment usually draws little attention because traders view it as a lagging indicator.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 4:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt1">Construction PMI</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">57.5</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">54.5</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">54.8</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3437" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3437" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 8:15am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">ADP Nonfarm Employment Change</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-40K</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">158K</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3415" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3415" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

The correlation between the ADP and national payroll data has been fairly weak over the past few months.

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. ADP, a leading provider of employment solutions for businesses, releases this indicator two days before the highly anticipated official Nonfarm Employment Change. ADP claims that this indicator has predictive value in regard to official statistics, but it hasn't yet gained acclaim from traders due to it's short history.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 10:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">ISM Manufacturing Index</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">51.0</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">49.5</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3413" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3413" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

The underlying components will also need to be watched closely

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 10:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">ISM Manufacturing Prices</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">54.0</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">53.5</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3414" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3414" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Prices measures the monthly inflation experienced by manufacturing organizations when purchasing materials and services. The ISM surveys 400 firms to produce this index.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 10:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">Construction Spending m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.6%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-1.0%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3416" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3416" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the monthly change in value of new construction projects.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 2:00pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">FOMC Meeting Minutes</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3417" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3417" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

The net risks are slightly dollar positive.

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a verbatim record of the committee's meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes give traders insight into the latest interest rate decision and policy shifts.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> tentative </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">Domestic Vehicle Sales</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">12.5M</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">12.3M</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3433" style="" align="center">
</td></tr></thead></table>

Wednesday January 3 at 9:15 ET

Trade Experiment #303A Buy GBP/USD at 1.9577

Stop is 1.9553

Target is 1.9705

Risk is 29 pips

Reward is 124 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.3

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards Wave B of a downwards Wave 4 of an upwards extended Third Wave.
________________________________________
_________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Adjust target for Trade Experiment #303 Buy GBP/USD to 1.9617Wednesday January 3 at 8:00 ET

After more analysis we believe that GBP/USD will descend to a new low at about 1.9580. Therefore adjust exit target to 1.9617 to claim 19 pips of profit and re-enter at the bottom of the next downwards small five wave pattern.

p.s. - GBP/USD went to an interim high of 1.9632 , thus hitting our adjusted exit target
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday January 3 at 6:45 ET
Trade Experiment #303 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594
Enter Buy GBP/USD at 1.9594
Stop is 1.9569
Target is 1.9705
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 107 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 3.7

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards Wave B of a downwards Wave 4 of an upwards extended Third Wave.

I just did a short term target analysis of EUR /CAD and found that the correct precise entry price according to our trading system is 1.5503, not 1.5510 as previously estimated. This price was recently met, so theoretically we should be in this short trade at the adjusted price.

_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 5:45 ET

Trade Experiment #300 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5510
Stop is 1.5561
Target is 1.5300
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 200 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.0 : 1

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the third wave and trade the fourth wave down - not a preferred wave configuration. Estimating the target is not reliable for this kind of trade with my current system.
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Previous comment:

No smart long trade on EUR/CAD (yet)
EUR/CAD Update for Monday December 18 at 20:00 ET
When things get this far along in a trend, my preference shifts to the short trade at the very, very end of the uptrend. I feel that probabilities of success decrease the further we get towards the end of a trend. So we don't expect to go long unless a very clear pattern emerges indicating the bottom of the downwards corrective wave we are now on and good trend reversal values are met.

Generally, my prediction is for a fall to about 1.5020 to 1.5040, then a rise to 1.5530 to 1.5740. 1.5690 is a possible reversal value. When the price reaches the very top, as evidenced by an Elliott Wave completion pattern and the intersection with high probability reversal values, we will have a good low risk / high probability short trade opportunity. We expect a Fifth Wave upwards, with the top of its internal third wave at 1.5530, and the top of its internal fifth wave at 1.5740.

The current price is 1.5145. We are in a short term corrective downwards fourth wave A-B-C of an upwards third wave of an upwards extended Third Wave according to our current wave hypothesis. Alternatively, we could be in a short term corrective downwards fourth wave A-B-C of an upwards first wave of an upwards B Wave.

:surprised

Well, that was a quick loss of 30 pips to start the week.

Hey dude...
I lost -84 and -21 becuase of s/l in buy gbp/usd

NOTE: it's not a complain i just inform to you...

Did you fail to notice this trade alert?:

Adjust target for Trade Experiment #303 Buy GBP/USD to 1.9617
Wednesday January 3 at 8:00 ET

After more analysis we believe that GBP/USD will descend to a new low at about 1.9580. Therefore adjust exit target to 1.9617 to claim 19 pips of profit and re-enter at the bottom of the next downwards small five wave pattern.

p.s. - GBP/USD went to an interim high of 1.9632 , thus hitting our adjusted exit target

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The purpose of a stop loss is to limit losses. Those sound like hefty losses. Please elaborate.

You shouldn't step in front of raging freight trains. These are experiments only, for research only. Take responsibility for your own actions. I have found that few strong trends reverse direction so early on in the morning. This matter deserves more study, but in retrospect I realise that it was dangerous to trade against a strong trend at this particular time of day.

Amen!

Amen

Although i lost in gbp/usd but your eur/jpy seems good
Also i reopen gbp/usd again.

Dear item today i gain enough do not worry about of this lost
Thank you my friend