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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #14,221
  • Nov 29, 2007 10:24am Nov 29, 2007 10:24am
Quoting howard
As you describe the risk for your new long entries is still below 221, is that correct?
Going back to the example, if the original entry was at 221.5 and banked at 228 then re-entered at 226.5, that makes 150 pips banked, so my break-even point on that entry + the original would be 220.00, however, I would place a (pro)stop at 222.5 (+100 on the original entry) so there is a total of 250 pips secured in the worst case scenario. Even though it's a new entry, I still keep it aligned with the original one and stick to my plan. It's kind of like a reverse scalp.

Also, there are times I don't have an opportunity to re-enter, which would mean the 650 pips banked stay that way. But I would still have some entries in play. With this setup, I trade only with the trend.
  • #14,222
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:14am Nov 30, 2007 5:14am
  •  ovie
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: IT IS THE LORD'S DOING... | 89 Posts
is there any hope of GJ still retracing to 225 area before continuing its upward move. experienced traders comments are welcomed. i asked cos i still have some short positions open and tp set at 225.
The Lord will do far exceedingly, above all that I will ever ask or think.
  • #14,223
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:33am Nov 30, 2007 5:33am
231.5 is a key target and there is potential for a reasonably large retrace though based on recent action, the bull looks strong. Key targets have overshot and retraces have not gone as low as expected.

As price approaches target, I intend to move pro-stops fairly close and bank some more with a couple of runners remaining lower down (going for the full 2500 pips).
  • #14,224
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:46am Nov 30, 2007 5:46am
Right now the technicals and fundies are in tandem, Bernanke basically signaled more cuts, which helps the equities so I have to agree with Zoran's 231 target in the midterm before any serious pullback.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,225
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:46am Nov 30, 2007 5:46am
Bovie baby!....hold your ground.....in five days you'll be good......sell don't take profit this time down at those low levels....tgt 219.50, and then 192.xx
  • #14,226
  • Nov 30, 2007 5:59am Nov 30, 2007 5:59am
Quoting DutchTrader
Right now the technicals and fundies are in tandem, Bernanke basically signaled more cuts, which helps the equities so I have to agree with Zoran's 231 target in the midterm before any serious pullback.
Agree
  • #14,227
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:00am Nov 30, 2007 6:00am
Quoting cesarnc
Agree
Might get it today as its month end, thoughts?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,228
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:58am Nov 30, 2007 6:58am
  •  ovie
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: IT IS THE LORD'S DOING... | 89 Posts
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Bovie baby!....hold your ground.....in five days you'll be good......sell don't take profit this time down at those low levels....tgt 219.50, and then 192.xx
Thanks Gbp/jpy, so where would u suggest i set the tp, if 225 is too close.
The Lord will do far exceedingly, above all that I will ever ask or think.
  • #14,229
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:53am Nov 30, 2007 7:53am
Quoting ovie
is there any hope of GJ still retracing to 225 area before continuing its upward move. experienced traders comments are welcomed. i asked cos i still have some short positions open and tp set at 225.
My advice is not to trade on hope. Follow your analysis and if that doesn't exist, then learn to trade. Develop money management skills so you don't have to ask those type of questions. My questions is how far up will you let it go?
  • #14,230
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:35am Nov 30, 2007 8:35am
Quoting Zoran
My advice is not to trade on hope. Follow your analysis and if that doesn't exist, then learn to trade. Develop money management skills so you don't have to ask those type of questions. My questions is how far up will you let it go?
I say 251 Zoran.

All jokes aside, I can see traders making a push for 230ish as the futures point to a strong opening, although we did get some so so data. With that being said, it being month end I see a push to the highs and then profit taking to commence.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,231
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:09am Nov 30, 2007 9:09am
Quoting DutchTrader
I say 251 Zoran.

All jokes aside, I can see traders making a push for 230ish as the futures point to a strong opening, although we did get some so so data. With that being said, it being month end I see a push to the highs and then profit taking to commence.
It seems to be struggling to get past 229.3
  • #14,232
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:10am Nov 30, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Zoran
It seems to be struggling to get past 229.3
Indeed, it's looking exhausted at this moment. We've also had some soft US data which might just cause traders to pack it in early.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #14,233
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:54am Nov 30, 2007 9:54am
Quoting DutchTrader
Indeed, it's looking exhausted at this moment. We've also had some soft US data which might just cause traders to pack it in early.
Sounds like some profit taking is in order. I'd rather play it safe at this point.
  • #14,234
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:31am Dec 4, 2007 2:31am
GJ follows GU and UJ very precisely. It os infact GU x UJ.

Try multiplying the price of UJ and GJ at any point and it will exactlly equal the price of GJ even to 7 decimals.

Looking at the charts of UJ and GU,

UJ is retracing the recent bear run from 117.94 to 107.15 and it found resistence at 111.18 which is the 38.6 fib retrace.Bouncing off that resistence it is now slowly but surely inching back from that resistence.( Confluence of 23.6 fibs from bear run of 124-107 and 38.6 fib of the bear run from 117-107). I can only see a minor spikes in UJ due to favorable interest cut to half a percent next tuesday though quater percent is more on the cards.crazy action on DOW may also cauise temporary soikes on UJ butu from the charts it looks it is heading down back to recent lows.

Looking at GU:

GU has retraced to 23.6 fib of its bear run from all time high of 2.11 to 2.03.
it found the resiustence at 2.083 even thouhg 23.6 fib from my charts is 2.085. With a interest rate cut fromi BOE looking strong this month or next month, i can only see pound depreciating. also pound didnt show an upside bounce 3-4 days back after Ben's speech when he made it virtually clear of a rate cut next tuesday. IMO this also supprots that pound is looking to depreciate.

Looking at both UJ and GU , both are likely to fall in the short to medium term which i think will cause the GJ to come down with it.Though io do intraday trade too,but thats my take in the medium term.
Will appreciate some input on these views.

Charts to follow:

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6...retraceef5.jpg


http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6...retarcekl7.jpg
  • #14,235
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:41am Dec 4, 2007 2:41am
Quoting sri
GJ follows GU and UJ very precisely. It os infact GU x UJ.

Try multiplying the price of UJ and GJ at any point and it will exactlly equal the price of GJ even to 7 decimals.

Looking at the charts of UJ and GU,

UJ is retracing the recent bear run from 117.94 to 107.15 and it found resistence at 111.18 which is the 38.6 fib retrace.Bouncing off that resistence it is now slowly but surely inching back from that resistence.( Confluence of 23.6 fibs from bear run of 124-107 and 38.6 fib of the bear run from 117-107). I can only see a minor spikes in UJ due to favorable interest cut to half a percent next tuesday though quater percent is more on the cards.crazy action on DOW may also cauise temporary soikes on UJ butu from the charts it looks it is heading down back to recent lows.

Looking at GU:

GU has retraced to 23.6 fib of its bear run from all time high of 2.11 to 2.03.
it found the resiustence at 2.083 even thouhg 23.6 fib from my charts is 2.085. With a interest rate cut fromi BOE looking strong this month or next month, i can only see pound depreciating. also pound didnt show an upside bounce 3-4 days back after Ben's speech when he made it virtually clear of a rate cut next tuesday. IMO this also supprots that pound is looking to depreciate.

Looking at both UJ and GU , both are likely to fall in the short to medium term which i think will cause the GJ to come down with it.Though io do intraday trade too,but thats my take in the medium term.
Will appreciate some input on these views.

Charts to follow:

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6...retraceef5.jpg


http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6...retarcekl7.jpg
Nice to see someone else posting UJ and GU analysis to help with GJ.

Could you please resize your charts - i.e. reduce - as they currently cause the thread to maximise which is a right PIA......thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #14,236
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:51am Dec 4, 2007 2:51am
Hello everyone, i made for the firts time my elliott wave analyses on GBP-JPY and we will se how many profit or loss can we make today.
nice day

check it out also on http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm

1h chart

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/gbp-jpy.gif
  • #14,237
  • Dec 4, 2007 4:20am Dec 4, 2007 4:20am
Quoting money
Hello everyone, i made for the firts time my elliott wave analyses on GBP-JPY and we will se how many profit or loss can we make today.
nice day

check it out also on http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm

1h chart
So does this mean this wave wasnt right and you have to count again?
  • #14,238
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:33am Dec 4, 2007 6:33am
Quoting money
Hello everyone, i made for the firts time my elliott wave analyses on GBP-JPY and we will se how many profit or loss can we make today.
nice day

check it out also on http://www.trading-fx.si/fx/sloanaliza.htm

1h chart

Hi,

I see a potential gartley pattern that is pulling this pair down to 224.76 before a rebound north. It's almost there ... another 200 pips down .. it's still valid as E/W count since it's at the borderline of W1 space ..

my 2 cents ...
  • #14,239
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:02pm Dec 4, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting Zoran
Sounds like some profit taking is in order. I'd rather play it safe at this point.
Happy birthday zoran, miss your posts.

Alex
  • #14,240
  • Dec 5, 2007 2:07am Dec 5, 2007 2:07am
Quoting bobblong
So does this mean this wave wasnt right and you have to count again?
HEllo, i think that is not necessary to do my counting again, because it looks like the 4th wave is still in the action and it has enough of space of wave 1.

On the other hand is possible that this highs (229,28) could be 3th and 5th wave, and becouse of that countinued down.

But i still belive in Fibonacci to reach 261,8% around 231,25- if this 5th wave that i meantioned before did not achieve his high.


nice trading, grega

1h chart

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/privatslike/gbp-jpy1.gif
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