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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #53,161
  • Dec 4, 2007 2:54pm Dec 4, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting lepiricus
I know this is contrary to what most think and is opposed to Karmo and M2B, but I think we are going to see 225 before 227... Ignore the buy trade on my chart, it is a trial EA trade.

We are stuck under a round number a 226, bar closed below the 4hr 50ema and 100sma. Any upward chop will probably be under 226.70 until we see 225 area. I have a very very conservative pending short at 226.70 waiting.

U/J 4hr bar is closed below 50ema. Bears may be taking a break now but they will be back hungrier than ever
I think it's good to have an opposing view, so we don't get caught up in a "mass psychology" mind set. I see lower time frames gradually turning bullish, but we can't overlook that 4hr chart potential . . .

  • #53,162
  • Edited 3:27pm Dec 4, 2007 3:04pm | Edited 3:27pm
Hey guys,

The BOE interest rate announcement is not far away. With credit conditions tight, and continuing to do so, im beginning to wonder if the time is right for a 25bp cut.

I'm obviously long, looking to scale in further here. However im starting to think i should be looking at this pair with a more bearish bias, with this move from the BOE on the cards (possibly already priced in to some extent, i should be able to confirm just how confident the big boys are shortly).

What are you guys thinking here? I read several of the major investment banks FX Strategy and Tech Analysis reports daily (im a dealer), they are all Cable bears now. Next level being called widely is 2.0350. We should see this fairly quickly should the BOE pull the trigger.

Thoughts?

edit:

Update: JPMorgan FX strategists are now looking shaky on the bearish cable view, having not played out to the downside as expected.

Update Again: reuters poll - 15 ouf of 56 odd economists polled are calling for a cut. With Bank of Canada cutting rates (BOC often considered a leading indicator - the most forward thinking bank) im thinking chances are quiet good at the moment for a cut and a slide in cable.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #53,163
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:15pm Dec 4, 2007 3:15pm
Thoughts? ......Thanks for the heads up on that.

Quoting MMDealer
Hey guys,

The BOE interest rate announcement is not far away. With credit conditions tight, and continuing to do so, im beginning to wonder if the time is right for a 25bp cut.

I'm obviously long, looking to scale in further here. However im starting to think i should be looking at this pair with a more bearish bias, with this move from the BOE on the cards (possibly already priced in to some extent, i should be able to confirm just how confident the big boys are shortly).

What are you guys thinking here? I read several of the major investment banks FX Strategy and Tech Analysis reports daily (im a dealer), they are all Cable bears now. Next level being called widely is 2.0350. We should see this fairly quickly should the BOE pull the trigger.

Thoughts?
  • #53,164
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:25pm Dec 4, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting mrxit
Thoughts? ......Thanks for the heads up on that.
Agreed. And I've heard bearish forecasts about GBP lately, too, and I doubt if I'll be trading the night of the rate announcement.
  • #53,165
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:36pm Dec 4, 2007 3:36pm
This is from a financial analyst daily report this morning.

Instead of going down as expected the UK manufacturing sector PMI went up by more than one and a half points.
The Pound opens in London today a cent and a half ahead against the Dollar, half a cent up on the Euro and either higher or unchanged against almost everything else. Its relative success is entirely due to the belief that UK interest rates will emerge unchanged from Thursday's MPC meeting. The overnight report from the British Retail Consortium did nothing to dampen that view. November sales were 1.2 per cent ahead of last November. There is still no unanimous conviction about the MPC's decision but Bloomberg's latest poll shows 44 out of the 61 economists surveyed expecting no change.

Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Agreed. And I've heard bearish forecasts about GBP lately, too, and I doubt if I'll be trading the night of the rate announcement.
  • #53,166
  • Dec 4, 2007 3:36pm Dec 4, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting forexnovice
See u all @ 00:00gmt....zzzzzzz 4 now
peace bro!
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #53,167
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:14pm Dec 4, 2007 5:14pm
Thanks for the link mate, looks like a very good thread. Much appreciated.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #53,168
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:23pm Dec 4, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting moneymagnet
peace bro!
Those demons of Fear & Greed did not allow any sleep..Closed all positions... Awaiting new daily bar momentum....good 2 see ya..
  • #53,169
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:27pm Dec 4, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting forexnovice
Those demons of Fear & Greed did not allow any sleep..Closed all positions... Awaiting new daily bar momentum....good 2 see ya..
I think you should leave your longs till first TP around 227.05..But that is me
Work smart not hard
  • #53,170
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:32pm Dec 4, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting forexnovice
Those demons of Fear & Greed did not allow any sleep..Closed all positions... Awaiting new daily bar momentum....good 2 see ya..
auslanco just posted his new daily momentums on the "daily momentum" thread and all three (1c, 10c, 14c) are bullish.
  • #53,171
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:34pm Dec 4, 2007 5:34pm
Bullish Bias Momentum Today
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  • #53,172
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:41pm Dec 4, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting forexnovice
Those demons of Fear & Greed did not allow any sleep..Closed all positions... Awaiting new daily bar momentum....good 2 see ya..
bullish but probably not enough juice for 231. weeklys are bearish. bad news thursday/friday will align with weeklys
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #53,173
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:45pm Dec 4, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
auslanco just posted his new daily momentums on the "daily momentum" thread and all three (1c, 10c, 14c) are bullish.
Thanx Bud..
  • #53,174
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm
Here's a tid-bit for u, take it for what its worth. . .

Eastern European bought UJ @ the lows during NY session according to commentary from the platform I use (forex.com). Maybe they know something we don't. The last time I posted this was last Thursday right before Freaky Friday and UJ price went up taking GJ with it during London session and right before NY session. Lets see if this happens again during London session going into NY session. . .

From an Analysis standpoint 15 min, 1hr and 4hr, 8hr and daily momentum are pointing north. . .

1hr MACD starting to cross over upward from OS. . .

Also, RSI in most time frames are pointing to OS as well. 8hr 5 SMA is @ 227.17 with a bit of resistance before it @ 226.66 and 226.87 21 & 34 EMA. GJ will have to get through it before a move back to 227'ish.

All in all I think we'll see an eventual move up above 227 within the next 8-12 hours. More than likely during London session. However, GJ may see a slight pull back (limited IMO) before the move up this will depend on if UJ stays above S2 daily support and GU stays above its S1 daily support. If support holds 227 is looking more promising before a move down. . .

If both UJ & GU fall back on support then GJ will see 225.31 which is also 50% fib on a 4hr chart. . .

Feedback welcomed. . .
  • #53,175
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting sony
I think you should leave your longs till first TP around 227.05..But that is me
Now that is one serious trade recommendation
  • #53,176
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm Dec 4, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Agreed. And I've heard bearish forecasts about GBP lately, too, and I doubt if I'll be trading the night of the rate announcement.
15min Strategy (Latest Version)

Hi Auslanco: Have made changes to the web site. Can you verify that I have everything in there and it is correct. Advise if any thing needs changing.
Rod
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #53,177
  • Dec 4, 2007 5:56pm Dec 4, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting maestr2
15min Strategy (Latest Version)

Hi Auslanco: Have made changes to the web site. Can you verify that I have everything in there and it is correct. Advise if any thing needs changing.
Rod

Check your PM bro.
  • #53,178
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:11pm Dec 4, 2007 6:11pm
GU & UJ have Bullish momentum on the dailies
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,179
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:23pm Dec 4, 2007 6:23pm
Poor Consumer Confidence is dragging the gbp/usd down, hence dragging down the Beast.

7:01pm GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...impact_low.gif Consumer Confidence 86 94 98
  • #53,180
  • Dec 4, 2007 6:23pm Dec 4, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting quecee5
Here's a tid-bit for u, take it for what its worth. . .

Eastern European bought UJ @ the lows during NY session according to commentary from the platform I use (forex.com). Maybe they know something we don't. The last time I posted this was last Thursday right before Freaky Friday and UJ price went up taking GJ with it during London session and right before NY session. Lets see if this happens again during London session going into NY session. . .

From an Analysis standpoint 15 min, 1hr and 4hr, 8hr and daily momentum are pointing north. . .

1hr MACD starting to cross over upward from OS. . .

Also, RSI in most time frames are pointing to OS as well. 8hr 5 SMA is @ 227.17 with a bit of resistance before it @ 226.66 and 226.87 21 & 34 EMA. GJ will have to get through it before a move back to 227'ish.

All in all I think we'll see an eventual move up above 227 within the next 8-12 hours. More than likely during London session. However, GJ may see a slight pull back (limited IMO) before the move up this will depend on if UJ stays above S2 daily support and GU stays above its S1 daily support. If support holds 227 is looking more promising before a move down. . .

If both UJ & GU fall back on support then GJ will see 225.31 which is also 50% fib on a 4hr chart. . .

Feedback welcomed. . .
If todays lo is breached, I dont know that 227 will come soon. Seems to be a free fall down to 224.13 if the lo is breached.
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